1 I say then, God has not rejected His people, has He? May it never be! For I too am an Israelite, a descendant of Abraham, of the tribe of Benjamin.
As of 57 CE, when Paul wrote to the Romans, the nation of natural Israel had not yet been rejected by God.
2 God has not rejected His people whom He foreknew. Or do you not know what the Scripture says in [the passage about] Elijah, how he pleads with God against Israel? 3 "Lord, they have killed Thy prophets, they have torn down Thine altars, and I alone am left, and they are seeking my life." 4 But what is the divine response to him? "I have kept for Myself seven thousand men who have not bowed the knee to Baal." 5 In the same way then, there has also come to be at the present time a remnant according to [God's] gracious choice.
In the days of Elijah a remnant of the nation of Israel had remained free from idolatry. Likewise in 57 CE a remnant of the nation had remained faithful to God and converted to Christianity.
6 But if it is by grace, it is no longer on the basis of works, otherwise grace is no longer grace.
God had promised the coming of the Messiah to deliver Israel from the consequences of sin and death. Those who accepted Jesus as the promised Messiah comprised the remnant of Israel who were "left over" on the basis of their faith and not on the basis of their works. Those who had rejected Jesus were marked for destruction due to their lack of faith; such ones were cut off in 70 CE.
7 What then? That which Israel is seeking for, it has not obtained, but those who were chosen obtained it, and the rest were hardened; 8 just as it is written, "God gave them a spirit of stupor, Eyes to see not and ears to hear not, Down to this very day." 9 And David says, "Let their table become a snare and a trap, And a stumbling block and a retribution to them. 10 "Let their eyes be darkened to see not, And bend their backs forever."
Those of Israel who sought righteousness based on works of law did not find it; they were cut off in 70 CE. Those who were chosen were credited with righteousness and were fittingly called "Israel" on the basis of their faith in Christ; such ones are truly Abraham's seed. - Romans 2:28, 29.
11 I say then, they did not stumble so as to fall, did they? May it never be! But by their transgression salvation [has come] to the Gentiles, to make them jealous.
When Paul wrote to the Romans in 57 CE natural Israel's probation had not yet come to completion; there remained yet some twelve years for the fleshly Israelites to accept Christ. The fact that the Gentiles had been accepted by God, and become Abraham's seed, on the basis of their faith, was an incentive to the fleshly Israelites to accept Christ.
12 Now if their transgression be riches for the world and their failure be riches for the Gentiles, how much more will their fulfillment be! 13 But I am speaking to you who are Gentiles. Inasmuch then as I am an apostle of Gentiles, I magnify my ministry, 14 if somehow I might move to jealousy my fellow countrymen and save some of them.
Paul exulted in his hope that many fleshly Israelites would accept Christ and become "Israel." This might seem a little strange to some modern theologians, but according to the terms of the new covenant all who were "Israel" were not really "Israel." (Romans 9:6-8) Those who maintained their rejection of Christ as the Messiah were due to be cut off. They were the flesh or foreskin that was to be removed in 70 CE; whereas, both those from among the Gentiles and from among fleshly Israel were considered Israel when they accepted Christ.
15 For if their rejection be the reconciliation of the world, what will[ their] acceptance be but life from the dead?
The fleshly Israelites rejected Christ and stood condemned to death as sinners according to the terms of the law. The law demonstrated that all had sinned; thus, the way was opened for both Jews and Gentiles to gain life by means of Christ's sacrifice. There was yet time for many from fleshly Israel to accept Jesus as the Messiah. Paul's comparison showed that if they had accepted Christ it would have been as though they had come to life from the dead.
16 And if the first piece [of dough] be holy, the lump is also; and if the root be holy, the branches are too.
The "first piece" is Christ himself. He is the only one who is truly holy; those "lumped" together in him are also holy. He is also the "root" of the tree; and those attached to him are its branches.
17 But if some of the branches were broken off, and you, being a wild olive, were grafted in among them and became partaker with them of the rich root of the olive tree,
Many of the fleshly Israelites were considered "broken off" as a consequence of their rejection of Christ as the Messiah. In their place the Gentiles who had accepted Jesus were grafted in together with those of fleshly Israel who had not rejected him; these became the branches of the "olive tree." This tree, with its roots in Christ, was the Israel of God. The flesh, i.e. those of the Jews who had rejected Christ, were cut off in 70 CE. At that time the " full number " of the Gentiles, who were due to be grafted in by that time, had also been "grafted in."
18 do not be arrogant toward the branches; but if you are arrogant, [remember that] it is not you who supports the root, but the root [supports] you. 19 You will say then, "Branches were broken off so that I might be grafted in." 20 Quite right, they were broken off for their unbelief, but you stand by your faith. Do not be conceited, but fear; 21 for if God did not spare the natural branches, neither will He spare you.
Many from fleshly Israel were "broken off" on account of their unbelief. One would think that since they were in expectation of the Messiah, and in a covenant relationship with God, that they would have naturally benefited when the law covenant was fulfilled in Christ. But such was not the case. Paul plainly stated that these ones from fleshly Israel had been broken off; they had rejected Christ, and were deemed cut off and marked for destruction if they remained in that condition.
22 Behold then the kindness and severity of God; to those who fell, severity, but to you, God's kindness, if you continue in His kindness; otherwise you also will be cut off. 23 And they also, if they do not continue in their unbelief, will be grafted in; for God is able to graft them in again.
When Paul penned his letter to the Romans time remained for many of the fleshly Israelites to repent and accept Jesus as the Messiah. Such ones could be grafted in again. And if the Gentiles turned again to their former ways, they, too, would be cut off. Nevertheless, by the year 70 CE all who had been grafted in remained in the tree; these were considered "Israel." Those who had not been grafted in were cut off and not considered Israel.
24 For if you were cut off from what is by nature a wild olive tree, and were grafted contrary to nature into a cultivated olive tree, how much more shall these who are the natural [branches] be grafted into their own olive tree?
In Paul's illustration, the Gentiles, who were naturally unrelated to the covenant, were likened to the branches of a wild olive tree; and in contrast, the fleshly Israelites, that were deemed as heirs to the promise, were considered as naturally ready for grafting. Paul reasoned that since many of the Gentiles could be grafted in, then certainly many from fleshly Israel could more easily be grafted in as well.
25 For I do not want you, brethren, to be uninformed of this mystery, lest you be wise in your own estimation, that a partial hardening has happened to Israel until the fulness of the Gentiles has come in;
The word mystery refers to a thing that is hidden or kept secret from those for whom it is not intended to be known. Here the word Israel refers to the nation of Israel that existed at the time of the writing of Paul's letter; this included those who had entered into the new covenant by means of faith in Christ, and also those who remained under the curse of the law. Those of God's covenanted people who had rejected Christ constituted a partial hardening in the nation Israel. Those who remained in that "hardened" part until the time of the destruction where cut off; this was also when the full number of the Gentiles, which were due to come in by that time, had come in.
26 and thus all Israel will be saved; just as it is written, "The Deliverer will come from Zion, He will remove ungodliness from Jacob." 27 "And this is My covenant with them, When I take away their sins."
The ungodliness was that part which was hardened for destruction. Thus, "all Israel," i.e. all that really was Israel, was saved by 70 CE; the remaining natural Jews were either destroyed or carried away captive. This prophecy has nothing whatsoever to do with the modern nation of Israel. God concluded his business with the nation of natural Israel in 70 CE. No individual can claim reconciliation to God on the basis of natural descent from Abraham. Neither can any individual claim reconciliation to God by being a citizen of the modern nation of Israel. An individual can only be reconciled to God by accepting Christ as the promised Messiah. This is a personal matter of faith and has noting to do with citizenship in any earthly government.
28 From the standpoint of the gospel they are enemies for your sake, but from the standpoint of [God's] choice they are beloved for the sake of the fathers; 29 for the gifts and the calling of God are irrevocable.
Time remained for the fleshly Israelites to receive the calling of God. Such a calling was irrevocable so long as God was calling. The operative word here is "calling;" it is concluded that when the days of the calling were fulfilled in 70 CE that the hardened part or the ungodly part was cut off. Thus, the calling was irrevocable but not unlimited.
30 For just as you once were disobedient to God, but now have been shown mercy because of their disobedience, 31 so these also now have been disobedient, in order that because of the mercy shown to you they also may now be shown mercy. 32 For God has shut up all in disobedience that He might show mercy to all. 33 Oh, the depth of the riches both of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are His judgments and unfathomable His ways! 34 For who has known the mind of the Lord, or who became His counselor? 35 Or who has first given to Him that it might be paid back to him again? 36 For from Him and through Him and to Him are all things. To Him [be] the glory forever. Amen.
There is nothing in the eleventh chapter of Romans that extends an offer to the modern nation of Israel for salvation as a nation. There is no distinction between the Jew and the Gentile in the sight of God. All are sinners and must repent of their sin and accept Jesus Christ as the only way to the father. God's plan for the elimination of the worldly governments at Armageddon includes the elimination of the government of modern Israel. That modern nation's status does not differ from the status of any other nation.