. . . What the Fed is worried about when it refers to deflation, I believe, is asset deflation because once it arrives, it can be difficult to control. Japan is a recent example of failed government attempts to resurrect a bubble once it deflates. It also may contribute to a downward spiral in economic activity. A Fed nightmare is what happens when . . .


www.nightmareonelmstreet.com

Well, I thought I loaded them last night. Wrong file, heh heh.

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The Fed may have won the recent battle but they're going to lose the war.

This latest battle is now ending and the bears got beat up. Lets see how they do on the next battle.

I almost threw in the towel yesterday. The one thing that kept me in the game was the low P/C ratio and low TRIN readings when the market hit my targets near 980. If there would have been high PC and high TRIN, I wouldn't have shorted this market.

With ALL long term indicators that I look at massively redlined and the new highs/new lows indicators redlined as well, this is an historic occasion.

The potential fly in the ointment will be the P/C and TRIN. How do they act on down days? How do they act on tests of the top?

Oscillator Indicator at 1.95 Yesterday AM was at a 1.41, a new low for the move, confirming the market highs.

This market hasn't rolled over yet. Be careful. Shorting above 983, IMO, needs more confirmation than 5 minute sell signals.

scottcardiff,

Me too. I was watching those levels yesterday...thanks

I crapitulated and I have nothing on table yet

Waiting for BPIs to confirm, etc.

Suspect a sneaky retest before the pig really rolls. Either way I'm waiting for first bounce after top confirmation. Its my trading rule whether I like it or not or how tempted I am to jump now.

Great work!

With ALL long term indicators that I look at massively redlined and the new highs/new lows indicators redlined as well, this is an historic occasion

And the SUMMER TIME BLUES

Thing that's bothering me is I've got short signals on a couple of the golds....not that my signals are always valid of course.....

I went short at 11:00 AM yesterday. I was just going for a scalp with the intent to close out at the end of the day, but when the market did not bounce at the scheduled one day cycle low, I decided to hold over and sit through the first bounce this morning, then see how the next one day cycle down phase unfolds. I have a mental stop at breakeven.

Please join me and some of your fellow Stoolies in Stooltrading today, as I report on probable intraday cycle timing and price targets on the SPX and QQQ, as well as throw out an occasional thought on the few big cap stocks that I watch. bb is also there with his incredible Gann analysis. He and several of your friends are giving their ideas during the day. A one week trial is just $8.50. Just one good idea duing the week will pay for that a hundred times over! As a matter of fact, one good idea will pay for an annual subscription. Plus it's a great way to support the Stool! Click Here for instant access!

Small crap still being Riverboated.

Riverboat longs for today: BRCD, SIRI

Recommended short of the day: ELX, put/call ratio is only .57

Look up real time short interest and put/call ratios on

www.schaeffersresearch.com and click on the "Get Sentiment" on the left side of the page.

One piece of advice:

They won't make it easy to short this market on the open.

Betting on a retest of yesterday's highs on 1.5 billion shares or less. Da Boyz will probably run MSFT to try to jam this thing one more time.

Yesterday's highs will probably hold.

es shorter term oscillators o/s. top daily b. band at 969, top 90min band 975ish. 1/2 short es, if prices run to the 970-975 area, looking for lower high and bearish action to add to shorts.

QUOTE (wndysrf @ Jun 3 2003, 07:31 AM)

One piece of advice: They won't make it easy to short this market on the open. Betting on a retest of yesterday's highs on 1.5 billion shares or less. Da Boyz will probably run MSFT to try to jam this thing one more time. Yesterday's highs will probably hold.

wow look at SIRI go...Im long, target 3.50, violated the sell then buy higher rule but what the heck.


value stock unknown to most....RUSH
my 2 cents

Stoolwethers are loaded! Click Here

crapvison touting smallcap funds

FCEL getting cranked. I wonder if it will pull the usual earnings move lately....like OVER etc...

Like an anxious competitive poker player......who's at a disadvantage at 3:30 AM in a freeze-out..............in the backroom at Binion's Horseshoe.........................PrintsaLot..............is behind and looking for some help on the Flop..........................

Unfortunately......................He should, very soon, be sent down the River.................................

Does anyone think that the end of day decline in the tech/chip stuff was all in preparation for the IBM announcement? Can it be that rigged? Not that it matters. Only curious. Boy we are a cautious bunch of bears.

OYSTER

WHATS THE WORD?

Analists- Your pre market update is loaded. Click Here

GF: Great rant in M2M, well ,you know I agree.

QUOTE (Bearman @ Jun 3 2003, 08:14 AM)

<RED>OYSTER</FONT> WHATS THE WORD?

I have a feeling that at the bottom of the next downturn he will show back up to tell us to go long short term and he will increase trading then using profits for longer term entries....just my guess.

WITH THE IBM NEWS

looks like the begining of lots of Breaking Bad for stocks news
not that we haven't had bad news before.

now the fear will come back to the bulls little by little
and then an Event unknowable to any.

Careful all

Windy,

Great website (schaeffers). Good info. Amazing how heavy the put volume has been all the way up. Hopefully people start buying calls on pullbacks to give us fuel to go down.

QUOTE (soup @ Jun 3 2003, 09:19 AM)

GF: Great rant in M2M, well ,you know I agree.

Thanks, Soup, I know.

QUOTE (scottcardiff @ Jun 3 2003, 08:23 AM)

Windy, Great website (schaeffers). Good info. Amazing how heavy the put volume has been all the way up. Hopefully people start buying calls on pullbacks to give us fuel to go down.

Anyone have a chart of p/c vs seperate indicies?

Doc no update loaded?

QUOTE (scottcardiff @ Jun 3 2003, 08:23 AM)

Windy, Great website (schaeffers). Good info. Amazing how heavy the put volume has been all the way up. Hopefully people start buying calls on pullbacks to give us fuel to go down.

At the end of each day, Schaeffers displays large volume puts and calls...you can find this in the daily recap section under Market Commentary...usually, you will find tremendous Put and Call action in the DIA's and QQQ's....the difficulty comes in when trying to identify if they we're opening or closing positions......

Good Morning Traders,

Bull/bear zone:
NQ 1185.755~1187.196
ES 966.178~970.616

NatuRal Squares:
YM 8649 8836 9025
ES 900 961 1024
NQ 1024 1156 1225

SOX 324 361 400
COMPX 1521 1600 1681

No economic reports due today

Extremely choppy globex overnight session (ES chart below)

success!
gruff

obviously the bulls don't give a rats ass about the ibm news

QUOTE (bullseatshitndie @ Jun 3 2003, 08:34 AM)

obviously the bulls don't give a rats ass about the ibm news

They're assuming the numbers will be revised UPWARDS

BS: All in due time, por takes time

From the rubble, the Golden Ruble?

QUOTE (soup @ Jun 3 2003, 08:38 AM)

BS: All in due time, por takes time

true, was a bit premature.

QUOTE (wndysrf @ Jun 3 2003, 10:31 PM)

They won't make it easy to short this market on the open.

They're doing it anyway-

SP500 % Sell Short of Total Sell Order Flow From MarkeTrac

9:20-63.6%
9:25-73.6%
9:30-48.4%

Hope that's "us" doing the shorting and not "them".

BS: In reality we should have opened limit down, but alas we so seldom deal with reality

POG and the dollar moving the same direction again. Wierd.

Damn.....Bulls still in control...cant take it down and hold under 965 early on here...not a good sign....DNA short working pretty well here...nice gap down

QUOTE (soup @ Jun 3 2003, 08:43 AM)

BS: In reality we should have opened limit down, but alas we so seldom deal with reality

couldn't agree more. ibm news is bearish as ever. just goes to show you the deadly combination of the devil greenspew and the ability of he and the borkers to get the sheep back involved. ALL news is good news. put the blinders on and just buy, damn sickening.

QUOTE (bullseatshitndie @ Jun 3 2003, 08:48 AM)

couldn't agree more. ibm news is bearish as ever. just goes to show you the deadly combination of the devil greenspew and the ability of he and the borkers to get the sheep back involved. ALL news is good news. put the blinders on and just buy, damn sickening.

What's really a pisser is that insiders were tipped earlier in the day and sold off before the announcement...no justice at all

Strong interest in PAAS today. Is it telling us something? NEM strong yesterday.

Are we rallying on the IBM news ar FedEx....I just can't tell

QUOTE (crooked_analyst @ Jun 3 2003, 08:50 AM)

What's really a pisser is that insiders were tipped earlier in the day and sold off before the announcement...no justice at all

w/o a doubt. no surprise then that volatility was higher all day.

QUOTE (bullseatshitndie @ Jun 3 2003, 08:48 AM)

couldn't agree more. ibm news is bearish as ever. just goes to show you the deadly combination of the devil greenspew and the ability of he and the borkers to get the sheep back involved. ALL news is good news. put the blinders on and just buy, damn sickening.

A liquidity flood is floats everthing.

Even the turds at the bottom of the outhouse.

Temporary Open Market Operations 06/03/2003
Maturity Date 06/04/2003
Delivery Date 06/03/2003
The Desk has entered the market announcing: O/N RP

Temporary Operations Statistics
Treasury
Collateral
Operation Agency
Collateral
Operation Mortgage-Backed
Collateral
Operation
Weighted Average Rate
1.246 N/A N/A
Stop Out Rate (Lowest Rate Accepted) 1.230 N/A N/A
Highest Rate Submitted 1.250 1.250 1.250
Lowest Rate Submitted 1.190 1.230 1.220
Total Propostions Submitted (In $Bil.) 19.400 9.060 1.650
Total Propositions Accepted (In $Bil.) 2.500 .000 .000

Total Money Value of Operation (In $Bil.) 2.5

When the Fed talks about deflation, it is not price deflation that they are fighting. What really keeps a central banker awake is debt deflation, or a reduction in outstanding credit. Remember, central banks are credit creation mechanisms. That is all they do. When nobody wants it, when the outstanding amount begins to roll over, they are out of business. So far they are succeeding in their efforts to shoehorn debt into every crevice of society. When they run out of crevices, and debt rolls over, it's game over.

Nice Drain

What colour is the sky on this guy's planet?

9:50AM
Greenspan: "Fairly marked turnaround" for U.S. by Rachel Koning at MarketProp

The U.S. economy has seen a "fairly marked turnaround" recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told fellow central bankers at a panel in Berlin. Greenspan is forecasting moderate growth going forward and a low risk for deflation.

Growth? Between the contracting manufacturing sector and now his beloved consumers:

Chain Store Sales Down Sharply in May
Tuesday June 3, 9:00 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores fell sharply during May, a report said on Tuesday, as heavy discounts failed to entice reluctant shoppers into malls.
Chain store sales were down 2.7 percent in during the four weeks of May compared with the same period in April, Instinet said in its weekly Redbook report. But sales for the week ended May 31 grew 0.9 percent compared with the same week last year.

The Redbook Average is compiled from a sample of general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a year. The index is published by Instinet Research, a division of Reuters-owned electronic brokerage Instinet.

My last 2c

When the decline begins
Not even the Bears will belive it.
The Bulls will not even dream such a thing could happen.

Bearman waiting

QUOTE (crooked_analyst @ Jun 3 2003, 08:50 AM)

What's really a pisser is that insiders were tipped earlier in the day and sold off before the announcement...no justice at all

I don't think you have anything to worry about. This little bounce will vanish before the end of the day. The way I see it we should close probably 15-20 points down on the Nasdaq and open down in the am. At that point I think we bounce.

By the way I'm thinking the Fed announces it's policy on interest rates on Friday the 6th? Is this correct? Can anyone confirm for me.

Quicktrade