. . . Companies today don't have the ability to pass on costs to consumers which is hurting their bottom line. This inability to pass on costs is hurting the bottom line on profits. Without increasing profits the much hoped for capex spending boom will not take place. Without profits companies don't have the money or the incentive to spend money on new plants and equipment, which brings up an important question regarding the second half recovery. Where will the much ballyhooed profits come from to fire up the second half recovery?

The current run-up in stock prices is based more on hope than it is reality. There has been nothing said or indicated at recent company press conferences that would indicate that a capital spending boom is about to take place in the second half of the year. In fact just the opposite has been heard from corporate CEOs who have been selling stock in record amounts . . .

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - news), the biggest buyer of U.S. mortgages, on Tuesday said its quarterly earnings fell nearly 25 percent, missing analyst estimate, as derivatives it uses to protect itself against swings in interest rates lost value.

Excluding changes in the market values of derivative positions, Fannie Mae's earnings rose 18 percent to $1.86 billion, or $1.86 per share, from $1.573 billion, or $1.55 a share a year earlier.

Does that mean it wasn't an earnings miss after all?



http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...niemae_earns_dc

More on fnm:

"The company expects that as interest rates stabilize or rise, and liquidating mortgages are replaced with current-coupon loans, mortgage durations will lengthen and the company will pay down much of its short-term debt," vice chairman Timothy Howard said.

Under such circumstances, Howard said, the company expects that its net interest margin will "decline significantly" and that profit growth will "move from above its historical trend to below that trend for a few quarters."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story...C3C2A848AEB2%7D

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Can anyone think of more hyperbole to add?

Good morning and Good Stool to all!

IDS is the wide open place for both Bool and Bear. Just keep your posts short, and related to short term trading and news. Allowable diversions include anything that will generate a laugh.

All long posts should go on Look Out Below. You can put a link to it here.

For those of strictly bearish bent, please post in today's Bear Zone Stool Number Two thread. I will see you there form time to time.

For intraday time and price targets from Doc, please join me in Stooltrading. Stooltrading is for those serious day and swing traders who want to fine tune their entries and exits with the help of Doc's cmaps and cycle analysis.

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have a look at CMRC and ARBA. Haven't broken out yet, look like ICGE and CMGI a week ago.

regards

Aureleus

The Monkey House continues to keep it's "vacancy" sign lit at night, attracting wino's, ho's and futures players. Someone is serious about getting this market higher. FNM spin is...well, what can you say. The derivative tower that will bankrupt the world is "excluded" from earnings. How they get away with this is beyond me.

Excluding that this engine is missing a piston and steering wheel, it's a great car.

I want to meet the fool who buys this rally at it's highest.

Lower prices by the end of the day on a higher open - I see they've got the spx up to 1007

Greenspan's testimony today

Greenspin

QUOTE (longOnUranus @ Jul 15 2003, 08:32 AM)

The Monkey House continues to keep it's "vacancy" sign lit at night, attracting wino's, ho's and futures players. Someone is serious about getting this market higher.

Speaking of the Monkey House, the CBNC crowd is waxing ecstatic over the retail sales number this morning. Still growing better than 4% y-o-y ... euphoria in Fantasyland.

The updated $450 billion federal deficit projection to be announced today is already discounted ... gnarly, dude ... now if magoo will just keep his foot out of his mouth, we can probe that 1015 resistance again today.

Loral Reaches Agreement to Sell Six Satellites to Intelsat for up to $1.1 Billion; Files Voluntary Chapter 11 Petition as Precondition to Transaction


NEW YORK, Jul 15, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Loral Space & Communications Ltd.
(NYSE: LOR)--

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Financial News
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Reuters
Loral files bankruptcy, to sell six satellites
Tuesday July 15, 7:58 am ET


NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - Loral Space & Communications Ltd. (NYSE:LOR - News), a satellite maker and operator of a space-based communications network, said Tuesday it filed for bankruptcy amid a mountain of debt that has burdened it during the prolonged aerospace and telecommunications slump.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030715/telecoms_loral_1.html

Help Wanted- Web Server Admin Consultant

QUOTE (machinehead @ Jul 15 2003, 07:41 AM)

Speaking of the Monkey House, the CBNC crowd is waxing ecstatic over the retail sales number this morning. Still growing better than 4% y-o-y ... euphoria in Fantasyland. The updated $450 billion federal deficit projection to be announced today is already discounted ... gnarly, dude ... now if magoo will just keep his foot out of his mouth, we can probe that 1015 resistance again today.

some quick math

Iraq costing tht USA $1 billion per day.
Say 30 days per month.

Add $30 billion per month to that $450 billlion.

That $450 billion # is just pure vaporware,.

Just like this vapor rally.

QUOTE (thesun @ Jul 15 2003, 08:53 AM)

Iraq costing tht USA $1 billion per day. Say 30 days per month.

The figure I've read is $4 billion a month, or nearly $50 billion annually.

In any event, gigantic deficits are the transmission belt for recycling the global dollar supply ... the overseas Feed.

The Bubble Machine has switched on the afterburners. Just lookit the fuc-u-tures spewing and fizzing this morning.

QUOTE (machinehead @ Jul 15 2003, 03:17 PM)

QUOTE (thesun @ Jul 15 2003, 08:53 AM) Iraq costing tht USA $1 billion per day. Say 30 days per month. The figure I've read is $4 billion a month, or nearly $50 billion annually. In any event, gigantic deficits are the transmission belt for recycling the global dollar supply ... the overseas Feed. The Bubble Machine has switched on the afterburners. Just lookit the fuc-u-tures spewing and fizzing this morning.

Have we forgotten the other war? What is Talibanland costing us per month?

Pre Market Update

QUOTE (thesun @ Jul 15 2003, 07:53 AM)

QUOTE (machinehead @ Jul 15 2003, 07:41 AM) Speaking of the Monkey House, the CBNC crowd is waxing ecstatic over the retail sales number this morning. Still growing better than 4% y-o-y ... euphoria in Fantasyland. The updated $450 billion federal deficit projection to be announced today is already discounted ... gnarly, dude ... now if magoo will just keep his foot out of his mouth, we can probe that 1015 resistance again today. some quick math Iraq costing tht USA $1 billion per day. Say 30 days per month. Add $30 billion per month to that $450 billlion. That $450 billion # is just pure vaporware,. Just like this vapor rally.

This is only for our military cost....
The math for maintaining Iraq and rebuilding Iraq will be a completely separate cost...that figure is currently unknown...and i believe we will never know the actually figure....

QUOTE (aureleus @ Jul 15 2003, 07:18 AM)

have a look at CMRC and ARBA. Haven't broken out yet, look like ICGE and CMGI a week ago. regards Aureleus

Marcus, it that you?

QUOTE (Madame Wrecked Him @ Jul 15 2003, 08:01 AM)

More on fnm: "The company expects that as interest rates stabilize or rise, and liquidating mortgages are replaced with current-coupon loans, mortgage durations will lengthen and the company will pay down much of its short-term debt," vice chairman Timothy Howard said. Under such circumstances, Howard said, the company expects that its net interest margin will "decline significantly" and that profit growth will "move from above its historical trend to below that trend for a few quarters." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story...C3C2A848AEB2%7D

Just another crack in the foundation, a banana peel on the slope of hope. Nothing to worry about.

Bank of Canada pulls a greenie, cuts a quarter.

Loonie tunes

Fuel for the fire ...

Anyone ever watch the Highlander movies or TV series? I sometimes think we have some immortals hanging around capitalstool.

QUOTE (machinehead @ Jul 15 2003, 08:30 AM)

Bank of Canada pulls a greenie, cuts a quarter. Loonie tunes Fuel for the fire ...

Sure is good to see you around MH.

Poor Al G., what to do....Bonds or Stocks?

I was having a good coin day yesterday until I panicked during the "errors".

QUOTE (richmtn @ Jul 15 2003, 08:44 AM)

I was having a good coin day yesterday until I panicked during the "errors".

Is anything known more about the 'errors' from yesterday?

Well, that was fun. Now let's see what kind of down volume we can get out of FNM today.

Bubble fallout . . . industry pays off debt rather then investing in new plants and equipment . . . falling behind and becoming less competative.

U.S. firms paying off debt rather than spend: Fitch by Rachel Koning at MarketProp

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The average U.S. company was able to pay off its debt in 4.2 years at the end of the first quarter, down from a recent high of 5.1 a year earlier, Fitch Ratings said in a report Tuesday. But lackluster revenue gains contributed little to the belt-tightening. Rather, companies sacrificed capital investment to pay off debt. Companies cut capital spending by 14 percent in the period. "We are not likely to see a general improvement in credit quality, including upgrades, until leverage is reduced through revenue and profit growth, not shrinking business investments," said Robert Grossman, Chief Credit Officer, Fitch Ratings.

Huh. Would you look at that gap n' crap action.

What a waste of a major futures jam.

Biosprinter is getting ready for a big move..........so are some other bios.
Take refuge in concepts
Daily.

Perspective...



From Briefing.com

QUOTE (Metamucil @ Jul 15 2003, 08:53 AM)

Biosprinter is getting ready for a big move..........so are some other bios. Take refuge in concepts Daily. [img]http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=pdli&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=1&maval=200&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=268435456&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=8425&style=350&time=9&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=176&mocktick=1[/img] <img src="http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=abi&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=1&maval=200&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=268435456&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=393612&style=350&time=9&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3474&mocktick=1">

Meta,
Have enjoyed your takes on the BTK Suctor. Do you play any options on the acronyms that you like?

Temporary Open Market Operations 07/15/2003
Maturity Date 07/16/2003
Delivery Date 07/15/2003
The Desk has entered the market announcing: O/N RP

Temporary Operations Statistics
Treasury
Collateral
Operation Agency
Collateral
Operation Mortgage-Backed
Collateral
Operation
Weighted Average Rate
1.150 N/A N/A
Stop Out Rate (Lowest Rate Accepted) 1.150 N/A N/A
Highest Rate Submitted 1.150 1.170 1.200
Lowest Rate Submitted .950 1.100 1.170
Total Propostions Submitted (In $Bil.) 32.950 13.400 19.400
Total Propositions Accepted (In $Bil.) 9.000 .000 .000

Total Money Value of Operation (In $Bil.) 9


Looks like a $3 bil net Add

Who's in charge here? I thought that GreenSpeakEasy was in front of Congress
this morning.

Someone open a fresh can of whooopass in the bond pits.

QUOTE (richmtn @ Jul 15 2003, 08:44 AM)

I was having a good coin day yesterday until I panicked during the "errors".

Same here. That was a pisser.

From the number of posts here I conclude that the market has rendered us virtually speechless.

Barney Frank rabbiting on like a speed freak who's been up for 3 days.

Poor greenie looks sleepy/baffled.

These people are in charge of our future?

Exactamundo.

ok bears...lock 'n load...

QUOTE (richmtn @ Jul 15 2003, 09:14 AM)

From the number of posts here I conclude that the market has rendered us virtually speechless.

I was holding my breath but then remembered the BlackBelt adage; Breathe In, Breathe Out

machine: nothing personal last night. If I did not respect your opinion I would not take the time and energy to argue.

QUOTE (machinehead @ Jul 15 2003, 09:14 AM)

Barney Frank rabbiting on like a speed freak who's been up for 3 days. Poor greenie looks sleepy/baffled. These people are in charge of our future?

'Fucuture' isn't it?

Carolyn Maloney using her 3 minutes of fame to bash the Bushies for the deficit.

greenie is like, this is my fault?

what a sad spectacle

Chicago, Ill., July 9, 2003--The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) stated that on July 3, 2003, at approximately 9:38 a.m., CBOT mini-sized Dow futures experienced a sudden major market movement in the September and December contracts. Without any economic or fundamental basis for such movement to have occurred, the September 2003 mini-sized Dow futures fell from 9058 to 8474, or 584 points, which is approximately 2/3 of the 10% Circuit Breaker Limit for the U.S. equity futures and securities markets. There was also a 506 point disparity between the low price of the CBOT's $10 DowSM Futures contract during this time. The December 2003 mini-sized Dow futures fell from 9018 to 8442 (576 points) within 53 seconds (between 9:38:20 a.m. and 9:39:13 a.m.).

Prior to this time, the September market had been trading within a 31-point range, trading between levels of 9089 and 9058 from 9:30 a.m. to 9:38 a.m. Under standard procedures, after validating the price activity, the Exchange's Market Operations Division implemented the Exchange's Mistrade Policy and placed the marketplace on alert that trades executed after 9:38 a.m. were under review and being questioned.

Upon reviewing the market activity in both outright and spread trades in mini-sized Dow futures and in Chicago Mercantile Exchange® Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Price IndexT futures contracts prior to and during the timeframe of the incident, Market Operations determined, based on established protocol and price ranges within the policy, to disallow trades executed at levels below the 40 point range in both the September and December mini-sized Dow contracts. For the time between 9:38:00 a.m. to 9:40:04 a.m., trades below 9018 in the September contract and trades below 8986 in the December contract were deemed invalid.

As in most electronic trading platforms currently in existence, there may occur, from time to time, periods in which an overwhelming buy or sell bias in the market takes place, causing a cascading effect and exaggerating price movement to an extreme degree so that it becomes substantially misaligned to other related markets. The paramount requirement of a central marketplace is the maintenance of orderly markets, and in order to assure such a market, the extreme price movement experienced on July 3 caused the CBOT to invoke the mistrade policy and take responsive and immediate action to address this incident.

Contact:

Maria Gemskie

312-341-3257

news@cbot.com

gruff: I shorted arba in triple digits Not Yhoo.

For over a month I have picked 7/14 +/- as the turn date. Now we are going to see if I'm right or wrong. If wrong I'll be in some great company.

Basically those trades were NOT mistakes, someone called the CBOT and verified that the large sell trades trades were valid. Greg's press release confirms this. So someone is testing the market's strength. manipulating or just selling it. WOW!

QUOTE (soup @ Jul 15 2003, 09:17 AM)

machine: nothing personal last night. If I did not respect your opinion I would not take the time and energy to argue.

Which forum, please? It's hard to read and heed everything.

QUOTE (Mr. Beal @ Jul 15 2003, 10:13 AM)

Someone open a fresh can of whooopass in the bond pits.

I used to have one but, the site that contained it disappeared.