Decided to start this up if anybody is interested:

I pattern traded into the OIH, posted past charts where I got in late last year and already riding on the backs of the energy big boys. The FCS system should pull out nice gains as the trend strengthens (just my LT opinion)! We are entering a golden energy age and with GW in another 4 years you can count on all out political and military efforts to insure huge profits for the U.S. corporate energy interests, coincidentally his largest campaign contributors.

Looking for a test @ 75 OR FCS buy signal to add one more chunk of them:

Volatility quiet zone...get ready for action!

Must get above the MAPS before I can get bullish again see if this impending move gets it started...don't like the fact there are no bullish divergences to be found

Got the move out of NR down but now this is starting to look good with bullish divergences and retest of .50 on lower volume. Enter or wait for confirmation and jump in. Stops could be close or far but two obvious levels depending on how much you want to risk and wiggle room but this is the first promising op to enter since this pull-back started.

Another very nice pattern entry on the OIH once again. This time I did add my final (over) allocation

The bigger picture. My knuckles are getting sore from pounding on this one.
But anyone who does not have exposure to the oil service sector or is looking to add better act NOW

Long pattern set-ups simply do not get any better than this

I am sure the FCS will be giving a buy next week too but I didn't wait nor should you!

Maybe time to look for a few drillers.
Here are some nice set-ups.

XTO = catch the break out of this beautiful coil! Bias to the upside and great place to try add for LT hold but could be a nice swing short if it breaks down.

CHK = ascending wedge, again try to catch the break, should be up, if down I would only ST short with this sectors overall strength!


XOM and BP also forming ascending wedges.

GW = Bull Flag at major support

Some people saying top in oil, some say everybody says its going up so it has to go down now, a few say $60 or even $100 next year.

Here's what the chart tells me:

NO technical proof of a top, KEY FIRST MOVE is FR/FF ( Alan Farley term first rise/ first fall). Which means first COMPLETE retracement of the last leg up (usually we give out the 61.8 it's pretty safe to assume a return to origin). In addition to the FR/FF usually this move takes out major supportive MA's and TL's -> then you can start saying a major top has been made (@41 on crude).

Crude held the 61.8 nicely and what a bounce, the uptrend is still fully intact
I have potential projections to 60 and beyond and expect them unless we turn down again and the FR/FF and support violations occur (<41)!

Oil index is really strong one would see MACD to drop hard on 4th wave so far there is no sign of it.

OIH Update

Nice SOS (starting to use Wyckoff) off that low volume DB, at least I think that is the proper term, Sign of Strength = wide range, high volume, strong close bars.

Figured this was coming - FCS buy on OIH

Off to a smashing start, ol chaps!

T.O'B. recommended shorting this about the time I said to go long. He has been on top of my ignore list a long time. $ off his book and promos not RT trading...

Crude looks to be heading for a "dip" below 40...
FR/FF in place on last leg up and this so far A = C zig zag could easily extend.
As I have stated I do not believe oil will spend much time sub-40 but looks to need some time to prepare for the next advance...range 35-45ish.

OIH back to our last entry price @78, solid support @75 and I don't expect it to go much lower and again consolidate for the next really BIG move up!

OIH:

Green Arrows where I bought in. I would be entering here 75-80 if not already in.
Keep a stop down around 70 and adjust position size/allocation based on this loss if it caves in which I highly doubt.

Hank, thanks alot for the analysis. Appreciate it much. best. b.d.

Crude has now completed a FR/FF so we definitely have the potential for further downside prices in place now with 35-36 next support. I have previously stated I did not think sub-40 crude would ever last long again and still have technical reason to expect this. Best case would be an extended range 35-50 for 2005 with dips sub-40. Most unlikely would be a persistant decline but if 35 gets decisively penetrated we could have a sustained LT downtrend in place, there is a downsloping H&S formation that projects to 25! Maybe this will be what rescues 2005 from what makes it hard to imagine being a majorly up year as the historical deccenial patterns suggest.

Anyway the obvious price to watch for now is 40. Oil stocks showing good RS thus far also implies crude prices should hold up.

So again my favored outlook is rangebound 35-50 for 2005.

OIH:

I continue to be VERY BULLISH here!

The inverse H&S that formed the handle of this large cup and handle has had its projection met. This consolidation on the daily looks very healthy.
The Cup and Handle's target of course is much higher.
I would only become concerned if we break the lower channel line and cup top trendline that are now very close convergent support.

Crude has had a strong move up again carving out it's range but I doubt 50 will be breached...as I mentioned I see it being in a range for much of 2005 as long as no significant geo-political incidents push the panic button. This is very probable in the current environment but another reason to remain bullish.

This is not a real good entry area and your stop loss would be pretty steep.
HOpe some of you got in on prior notices.

Hank

Crude

OIH very high risk place to add now. At the 1.618 extension (XOP) of wave 1 and we popped over the channel...let this settle down a bit! But what a move. I expect trouble surmounting the even 100 level. Let you know if and when another lower risk entry sets up.
We are now up over 40% on average from our entries.
Hank

Big bearish engulfing at the 1.618 extension...wait to see what buying op may appear on this larger degree decline. 85-88 looks like the sweet spot.

Hank

OIH Update...

OK into the "sweet spot" Have to watch this carefully now and see if it can showing some relative strength as the rest of the market tanks AND tradable reversal pattern for an ENTER/ADD.
No reason to worry about bigger decline at hand...YET.

Hank

Crude Update,

My last comments basically said I was looking for a big range this year and doubted we ever will see sub 40 other than maybe one last brief dip stick move.

Well, we got the dip but not much below 40 and then this move taking out the prior high definitely was a bit of a surprise and definitely turns me even more bullish here with the potential for even more new highs again this year. Watch for the the dip to 50ish and "handle" leading to a renewed strong move up. What we should hope for as far as for the economy's sake is taking the enormous supportive confluence @45 out to the downside. Unfortunately this is much less likely in an established LT BULL market.

The auto stocks are getting completely demolished as V-8's and hemis are being touted endlessly in their advertising pitches. Already I am seeing the used car lot down the street building a huge inventory of 2004 SUV's now half what they sold for a year ago. Already the Asian auto makers have the jump on hybrids and are ready to pounce. Stupid American auto boys once again living in the past...better start reading Lee Iacoca again for ideas on how to get the government to bail ya.

What a bunch of idiots...they better not dare ask me to save them!

Driving my 2002 Volvo S80 = 28.5 mpg highway safely and cleanly and waiting for a bigger selection of hybrids before buying one.

Hank

If you didn't do some buying in here...still not too late
energy complex looks poised to make a break for it...should get an OIH buy signal along with TL break.

Things falling into place for another surge upwards, can't say I am real happy to see this...but if you are in the market for a cheap SUV it may be...

Hope you caught this one...
I continue to hold somewhat uncomfortably sized position here already for huge gain...
NOT time to sell any of it yet...
Has anyone out there called the moves better on Crude and OIH???
But this only is confirmation to me that this is a runaway BULL...
i.e. more bull than brains surely at work

Can't believe some people still trying to call major tops here...
We are at a third watch at 100 level...
If it breaks it will be a huge move...
If we fail it is going to indicate a long period of patience for the next move and we could have a fairly substantial pull back.
So very risky to enter now...but be patient there will certainly be more chances to jump in with lower initial risk...

Hank

OIH now officially a double bagger!!!
Hope you all been enjoying the ride...
Hard to tell someone not on board to get in right here...
Just chill...more ops with come up as this thing goes parabolic but the ride will get much wilder.

Multiple fib projections to $80+

Energy markets just starting to heat up again.
I believe we are unquestionably in a "third wave"
Appears we have entered a second more accelerated impulse @50

SUV obsolescence rapidly approaching.
Ised lots full of them...my assistant who just purchased hers last year for 24,000 was quoted 12,000 to trade in. Used lots here starting to get jammed up with excursions and tahoes...

Traders asnd investors not in energy in some form NOW are gonna continue to miss out in a very big way.

Now immense support at $55...

OIH showing common 3 stage parabolic...
In the early part of the 3rd move...usually the stongest in commodity related markets...not even close to a .318 time extension of previous leg or
equality with the prior impulse price wise.
And remember is this just the first subwave of a much larger bull market?
Reasons Mr Hanky remains very bullish here but hard to jump on this if your not already in...

Puplava and Wood calling top in oil

Didn't Wood say commodities topped out late last year too?

Anyway I hate it when these guys completely and totally ignore simple support and resistance and use the most esoteric and unreliable TA to base their conclusions i.e. sentiment and inter-market non-confirmations.


So let's look at what really matters:

THE OIH now as gold did at $375 has a wonderful and extremely tradable, massive supportive confluence at the even $100 level. Anyone not in would need to enter a larger degree pull-back to this area. A breakdown below it would be the first red flag causing me to unload my OIH position and indicate a much longer term sideways market was at hand, similar to the HUI after 2003.

But So far we are in a strong bullish wave with no sign of break down.
I don't even really see a "blow off" type of move yet that likely will happen before the break down. But anyway picking tops in strong bull markets is a loosing deal unless you get clear blow off signals such as huge exhaustion gaps and 9 - wave manic impulses fitting fib extensions.

Hank

WTIC key supportive confluence clearly at $55.
Break down below this turns me cautious but no way here

Look at $100 level for someone wanting to enter or add.
If price hits the ellipse I will post and that would be an ideal entry
point.
I am still fully vested and have not sold any.
Small degree FR/FF (full wave retracement) so we can expect a IT corrective phase is underway and time to look for supportive confluences to enter and add
NOT SELL.


Still looking for crude to bottom in around $55.

Short update ....nothin' new.... still looking OIH $100 / crude $55


Another double top in with RSI bearish divergence,
last too resulted in a 1.6*A - C wave below ...hmmm puts us at @100
See if this fractal iterates a third time...


Hank

OIH never dropped to a comfortable entry @100.
Looks like a big expanding triangle here which rarely offer an easy way to get in...
Crude did drop nicely in very close to $55 though...I continue to see that as critical support at this stage... a decisive violation of it would be a welcome
relief for the 2006 economy but so far the energy stocks are saying crude
will be staying above it.

I continue to hold a large portion of my portfolio in OIH.

Hank

Sorry I have not updated this in a while but been too busy with gold market and I am fully in this more than I originally planned but it has paid well...look back at beginning posts where we entered OIH back in the 65-75 level.
So we have a double bagger plus here now pushing 150...
This is the first time in this whole move I am getting a bit concerned.
We are unquestionably in parabolic mode here and if I have chose the correct seed wave we hit the 4.250 mania extreme extension on wave 7 of the typical 9 wave "super-impulse." I have shown this behaviour over and over in indexes such as the HHH.
I now hear soaring energy prices as being widely accepted now and even the president calling us oil addicts...my friends this is a bad sign for those of us long but even moreso for the poor suckers that are just getting in now. I commented last year we will get a larger degree correction here and have been looking for it to start this year (2006).
We need some price confirmation and we still have waves 8 down and 9 up but I think we may get a divergent double top probably a common 2B with the second one a somewhat higher high as the final blow off...
Anyway I will be taking profits as this unfolds probably in the next few months.
There are a few OSX stocks showing EW patterns that may continue upwards and maybe even have huge blow offs after the index goes flat...
The max downside I would expect here would be a move back to just over 100 on the OIH during this correction.
And I am not at all claiming an end to the energy or commodity bull just a larger degree corrective phase starting this year probably April-June.

Hank

Ohhh crude itself looks like it still has room to run and I do believe it will make new highs but 78-82 should be a substantial top for the ensuing correction.

My new highs in crude comment looks to be in danger...
Really watching this for a break of that well-defined LT trendline.
OIH also appears to be entering a longer term corrective phase.
If both loose support I am looking for crude at sub-50 and OIH at @120 this
year and energy prices moderating this year.

OIH FCS remains on SELL.

I am looking to take profits on part if not all of my OIH positions held a long time
(see prior posts here) if we break critical supports in Crude and OIH.
I really think we are going to see this happen but will be nice at the pump for a change.
WAY TOO MUCH TALK OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES...I rarely comment on sentiment indications much but really feel this whole thing is way out of control
here and even as the price of over $40 dpb oil happened huge new supplies have
entered the market and are coming to us now. Even the very fearful Iranian threat did not seem to spark much of a move in prices here.

Hank

OIH FCS signals a BUY

We continue to hold a very large position in OIH with huge double plus bagged
gains (see prior posts)

I have decided to add a position in PSPFX on this signal to some recently added
IRA funds.

Hank

OK been a month and the OIH/$OSX have rallied nicely with a pull-back here
retesting the prior major high.

Great place to jump in or add some...

BIG TOP HERE????

I truly wish I was seeing something to make me believe so

Apparently the stars are telling Arch Crawford we are doing so in OIL and
GOLD this week. He has done fairly well on his calls lately I must admit.

But on a fundamental TA basis I see nothing here indicating a top and much more likely after a retesting of the $70 area a surge to $80 which is much more likely place for a longer term top. A blow off type move could easily pop it to $100 briefly.
Then again there is always the event risk that could set this thing parabolic with dire consequences I don't even want to imagine. But I have had my sights on $80 for a longer term top for some time and still will be watching this level very closely for MAY-JUNE top. MASSIVE LT support now at $60-65; the critical level for continuing to hold my LT energy investments.

HANK

OIH FCS remains on SELL.

We now have decisively dropped below the major uptrend line and appear to be
testing it from below as resistance.
First sign we may get a resumption of the uptrend would be to get back above this line, next of course would be an FCS buy signal!
BUT I now think we will see 60-65 before 80 which was never quite hit

The highs for the equity markets, crude, and gold all are in for the year.

HANK

I have been posting the OIH signals on my HUI/gold thread and look for them there not here in the future.