Sudaca on M2M posted PDG:

Royal Gold looks good too.

this don't look so bad...


http://www.hsletter.com/members/Images/SGI/SGI.gif

From the ol Gold Geezer himself...
"The US dollar is trading as we speak versus the USDX at .8155 with a low today at .8145. There is no question in my mind or Kenny's that the line in the sand foundation of the US dollar is now at .8150, not .8000. By that we mean that a breach of today's low on the cash closing (that just means the time when the day crew at the currency trading desk comes in and the night crew takes over) will signal that .8000 will collapse, if not immediately, within the very near future.

Already you can see that level being defended."
Jim Sinclair


Man, I can't believe it but tonight I revisited two web sites that I haven't been to in a long time - Jim Sinclair and Tom O'brien. Tom is not the same goldbug anymore - he was all over the semi's and INTC as if some rocket was ready to blast off.... It also appears that Tim Ord is no longer providing timely advice out there anymore....

I must be too bullish

I think I've showed you the Apex on Uncle Buck at 82....
For some reason I believe that was the area to defend - it broke.....
but we'll give it one more day just because Sir Al, Bernanke along with Japan/Korea are retracting they prior "diversification" statements...

Guess what - if I'm right about 82 then POG short interest ain't going to mean diddly in the next wave....

Want something free?
http://wallstreetwindow.com/weeklygold.htm

NEM:

Five waves up at one lower degree of trend, following 5 waves down.

Above 46.64, wave 5 is extending. Wave 3 didn't so there's no reason why not.

Below 45.15 (and 100 XAU), the lower degree 5 wave pattern is complete and this 5 wave pattern will be labelled wave 1 or "a" up, and we've entered wave 2 or b down.

Either way, the ultimate resolution of this pattern should lead to higher prices. It's just that it may be painful getting there.

Time to get back to the land...

The Daily Telegraph
Golden goose

Farmer unearths $100,000 nugget
March 8, 2005

A VICTORIAN farmer has unearthed a golden goose – a 1.5kg gold nugget in the state's north.
Five prospecting friends were testing new picks a fortnight ago when one of them, identified only as Roger, made the find about 1m underground.
The nugget resembles the head of a goose.
"I just saw the size and I thought jeez, I finally found a big one," Roger told the ABC.

"It's just something that you never ever dream about."
The nugget is worth about $40,000 melted down but it could fetch up to $100,000 in its rare natural form.

It will be kept in a bank vault until it is sold on online auction site eBay.
"All we've got to do now is find the other part of the goose," Roger said.

Charmin OB had a falling out wih Ord a long time ago. U are a far better timer and stock picker than Ord re: the gold market.

I meant that if you go to Ord's website he no longer provides a current update and the other link I have and his latest is Feb. 28. He used to update every tuesday..
and I don't see the Leo Leyden link either, but I don't know if Leo still has him on his morning show....

If you see anything current let me know...

right from the get go...

Unfortunately, I suspect the little selloff here in the buck is going to turn into a full blown short covering rally. The defense of 81.50 will hold for now. Bummer.

Interesting to watch rates ratchet higher day after day.

below 82 is breakdown mode....

I figure anytime a stock is within 4% of it's prior high and bullish it will take the high....

right now POG is around 4% below 460

Let's hope so. Sinclair's first stop is 480. Gerbino says the banks max pain level is 475. This will be interesting to watch if buck does start to unravel. Murphy claims there ain't enuff gold to cover the short positions.

Somebody wanna tell me why Crapvision would feature a UBS downgrade of KGC at the opening bell? Seems kind of small time to feature. Time to buy that one on the pullback.

There's going to be a whole lot of left behind - POG is probably going for an upthrust of 460

TFH - you still think NG is going to 8.15?

let's both have a laugh....

This place is still dead can we say low is in and top will be in when everyone comes back.

This time GG should outperform NEM.

[
This time GG should outperform NEM.



Well I certainly hope so Ollie

Queenstake new low. That's a tough one to understand. 280K oz. of gold a year. 24 cent stock.

CBJ ????

Charmin we have to close over 9.40 there. Downside still looks wide open to me. Very sluggish day for the miners. Next week might get very ugly.

Ok, the laugh is on me, but I didn't realize WHT - which is basically GG divided by 4 have exactly the same chart pattern...

I'm stoolpid at least you get dividends with GG...

sluggish might = unbelief....

which might turn out to be "left behind"

Semafo (SMF.to) is a stock I've been following for long without any rewards really. The company is cheap optionwise, and cash flow technically too. It has 4 million ounces within the indicated and measured category or better, of which 1.4 mio are proven reserves. The marketcap is around USD 110 mio. Desert Sun Mining (Amex:DEZ, TSX:DSM) is a very similar company in optional terms. The marketcap is a bit higher though, and that's maybe justified due to its better exploration potential. However, Semafo is already in production, while DEZ expects to be so in the third quarter of this year. Technically, the stock looks extended, but it's worth to keep an eye on imo. DYODD.

Good luck goldies...

Got plenty of physical. Never left behind.

off the daily creek at 8.50 builds the apex pointed at the 9 area ....very interesting..... reply an upside reversal please.... to 10.50

Dear Charmin - I want to renew my subscription to your brilliant stock chart letter and timing service! It's worth every single 1oz gold eagle that you charge - now how many coins is that I owe you now?

welp goobers - chere's uh update a muh dollar chart ("the ol' lower low, higher high 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 pattern") posted on feb 9th expecting a test of 78-80.

as yah can sees- i wuhn't KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


we's fallin fo' 78 - 80 - prolly get a nice bounce and then consolidation for a couple months. my wag is that next couple weeks we continue up in the gold stocks, then a pause fo' the consolidation cause retrace - the real action in the gold stocks then takes place AFTER the dollar breaks 78 to the downside (June???). Gold is leading the gold stocks here - I would've bought today if I wasn't already in as per my post in early Feb.

This isn't short term bullish.

Hi OH.

John Embry holds a bucket load and is not too happy with Mgmt... seems they have not been forthright as to their cash requirements to fund ops. looks like a financing is imminent.

I hate to see firms do a financing with the stock near its lows....for a long time Paul Van Eeden was pushing this one as well as Embry.

This stock has always been a three trying to dress itself up as a nine

AB

independent in thinking , albeit unoriginal....

Robbie Friedlands firms seem to be acting real nice.....I will say it like him or loathe him.... his shareholders make money. This guy plays Chess while most folks play checkers.

I hate to see firms do a financing with the stock near its lows....for a long time Paul Van Eeden was pushing this one as well as Embry.

This stock has always been a three trying to dress itself up as a nine

AB

Hi AB,
At first I thought you were talking about GG, but then the other half of my brain cell kicked in and I realized you were speaking of QRL.
It has been a serious dog, and now I see that after hours they are going to have some adjustments to their financials. It may be a buy at half this price. Who knows?

I suspect if the HUI doesn't kick it in gear in a couple of days, we're headed back down and "it may get very ugly" next week.
I don't like it one bit when the POG leads the miners.

NEM:

The Indices aren't goning anywhere, I submit, without NEM's support.

http://www.smallinvestors.com/gold/Goldindexnew.htm

Overlap of 45.15 confirms that the correction is in earnest.

CBJ:

This is the chart for the Toronto Stock Exchange.

As I hold this P.O.S. in my retirement account, I must, generally, trade there.

This stock is like the drama queens in Wyndy's posts. There's a helluva lot of promise, so you just can't let go. But she always disappoints.

Potential head and shoulders, acsending triangle, some positive divergence.

In my mind, I see her as Trader's Devil in the Blue Dress. She's silhouetted in a doorway, her shape accentuated by the sunshine that casts the shadow from the window behind her. She beckon's and in a sultry voice says "Come on in, Big boy."

I know I should resist. I should fight the Siren song, but some how I can't. I have too much invested in this relationship, despite my fears.

I average down. I enter the doorway, It is now dark. The curtains have been drawn. My universe descends into our heavy breathing....

Seems to me CBJ and GSS are the crowded trades, with lots of nervous Nellies in it. They often bottom late.

Sold my NNO warrants last week, still holding onto the GRS/GAM.to, added to IMR.v at the 50 dma backtest, and am in doubt about PTQ.to.

Geez, when I mentioned ONCE "unoriginal" FIVE months ago, I must have touched a sensitive nerve somewhere.... LOL. The fact that you have made now 5 or 6 references to it, here and at Rich, arguebly proves my point, isn't it...LOL. Just kidding...

Definition of bygone: "Past events to be put aside"

Attack number seven on the descending line may be succesful because the weekly RSI shows there is time
Also the long term momentum as made a turn at the highest point in 7 years
I am still holding all I ever bought
and I am still bored

Since I am not a ewaiver can somebody please interpret following[QUThe lovely impulse down I showed you was part of a large (X) wave and not part of a
larger impulse down.[/QUOTE]OTE]

It is from the march 6 XAU picture

http://www.geocities.com/brahmaloka.geo/gold_locus.htm

COT

Gold... Commercials 105K Long 248K Short


AG ... Commercials 16K Long 87 Short


We should get a good buying opportunity in a while. This weeks share action looked toppy to me.

tfh, to me too! looks like a pullback is in order. But as bv points out, it sure looks like 5 waves up, which means after a correction, we get another 5 waves up, at the least! dharma

TFH - the HUI trendline hits 218 early next week - a pull back to this level seems consistent with the current uptrend and past chart history- nothing unusually bearish.

now that everyone and his brother has been trained that HUI leads gold, i wouldn't be at all surprised that gold is leading HUI at the beginning of the next projected leg up - especially after last year's HUI disappointment. (I expect HUI back to leading gold once we break gold $458)

the chart highlights the recent leg-up's fib levels (.5 and .618) which also point to the 218-220 area as a reasonable pull back area.

jus' one goober's humble opinion

RGLD - new 52 week high
sits at the $20 COP - or Contracted Objective and nearing 50% retrace. It is working it's way up through confluence while if the new high does not just turn out to be an upthrust of the $19 area - it has enough sideways cause from November to get it to the 1:1 objective in the $23 area...

G.M.

I simply can't believe that the Commercials went so-o-o short from long over the last 4 weeks to see HUI track down to merely 218.

The longer term trendline says we could go much lower. A 61.8% retracement of the February/March rally targets 204.

The paper leads the metal. It's the leveraged play. The leveraged players exit early because they have too much to lose. It's kinda like going out in the rain without an umbrella nine times in a row. You're going to get soaked. There's no reason why the 10th time would be different.

Paper leads the Commodity:

Of course, these charts have not completed their patterns.

But it certainly seems like the Canadian Energy ETF wants to outpace West Texas Crude in the race downward. It would be pretty easy to track if we used one of Jackiss's ratio charts.

Not a bear on Crude in the long run.

Good morning BV,

Love the charts! How do you like the new avatar?

ST XAU Outlook: (Forensically Speaking)

During scam week the MMs will attempt to achieve MaxPain at XAU 95. This will largely manifest itself as pressure on NEM and the big caps, but will extend to other PMs as well to varying degrees.

IT XAU Outlook

Feb-April 88 - 110
April-May 110 - 100
May-July 100 - 135
July-Aug 135 - 125
Aug - Oct 125 - 155

LT XAU Outlook:

Sept/Oct 2005 - 155
Q1/Q2 2006 - 105
Q3/Q4 2007 - 210
Q1/Q2 2008 - 155
Q3/Q4 2009 - 310

Gold

The cash gold market touched the .786 retracement at $448/oz. On March 11th. As you can see by the charts of the gold-silver index and the stock of Newmont mining, a significant divergence is occurring. These two can only make the .618 levels. The last time we had a divergence like this was at the highs of $458 /oz. This could change with one strong upday but it is worth watching. This is a major retest for these markets and they could move either way. I think the divergence is enough to be cautious on new long positions. Monday and Tuesday are both key astro days for gold and silver.

From Pesavento...sorry no link.

G.M.

I simply can't believe that the Commercials went so-o-o short from long over the last 4 weeks to see HUI track down to merely 218.

The longer term trendline says we could go much lower. A 61.8% retracement of the February/March rally targets 204.

The paper leads the metal. It's the leveraged play. The leveraged players exit early because they have too much to lose. It's kinda like going out in the rain without an umbrella nine times in a row. You're going to get soaked. There's no reason why the 10th time would be different.

[/quote]

Unfortunately, I have to agree. So far, that commercial data has been right every time. Sinclair said that 441 would be sold - so I thought maybe the advance would've stalled there.
The miners must lead or a pullback is imminent.
Eventually, the COT is going to get their butts handed to them, when is anyone's guess. For now, they seem easily able to manipulate this market.

COT

COT Figures

Good evening SMSC:

Two things.

First, you avatar isn't a pretty as the other girls. Maybe she should remove some of that facial hair.

Second, thanks for the graph on the COT's. Looking at the raw numbers over the past few weeks, I thought they were far more bearish.

old habits / bearvest

you both may be right - but at 109k net short for the commercials, we still have time to run in gold based on the historical charts - last two tops, the commercials were close to 200k net short in April 04 and almost 180k net short last late November. At 109K short, if history is our guide, we have some room to move to the upside in gold.

in my prior post, i expressed my wag that we get another two weeks up before a correction/consolidation that lasts a month or two. that would be inline with a commercial net short cot build to around 170-180

but more than cots, i think the dollar continues to be weak here and is headed down for the next couple weeks.

i'm swingin' fo the fence goobers!

Gotta give you my props, G.M.

You don't shirk from defending your position. And, I submit, neither do I.
It's what makes this board great. What impresses me isn't the magnitude of the change, but it's suddeness and its rate of change.

Charmin leads by example, but we all share, in a principled fashion, our respective points of view.

Did someone say, " This is the best place for people like us?"

Stolen from Howl on B4. This Dollar bearish?