On the last day of my count the Bernie analysis still is...
"Gold bullion went on a tear today, (up 5.70) as the Dollar weakened, supporting a further move up in the XAU index. More time is still needed for a good low."
http://www.feargreed.com
while many commodities retested support areas..
Full Version: Daily Digger - Wednesday April 20, '05
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
http://dvtechtalk.com/April/April20.htm
where were we last year
http://dvtechtalk.com/April/April21.htm
where were we last year
http://dvtechtalk.com/April/April21.htm
dollar support area 83.50
a battle will now ensue
buck at support
metals at resistance areas
coppper 150 area trading range highs
silver
buck at support
metals at resistance areas
coppper 150 area trading range highs
silver
Nervously pleased with the way the POG is holding up. Let's see if the miners can do the same.
Got NG? 
Want a ready made recovery story portfolio in PMS?
Try:
AGT
CAU
CBJ
CDE
DROOY
GBN
GSS
HL
HMY
MNG
PAL or SWC
PMU
RANGY
Less risky story?
NEM
BGO
EGO
KRY
NXG
NG?
Try:
AGT
CAU
CBJ
CDE
DROOY
GBN
GSS
HL
HMY
MNG
PAL or SWC
PMU
RANGY
Less risky story?
NEM
BGO
EGO
KRY
NXG
NG?
Wild ride in GRS the last week or so.
We've still not really gotten good participation from some of the smaller names, although CBJ is coming back slowly. Maybe the CIBC upgrade last Friday is helping.
There's still a long way to go in my portfolio.
We've still not really gotten good participation from some of the smaller names, although CBJ is coming back slowly. Maybe the CIBC upgrade last Friday is helping.
There's still a long way to go in my portfolio.
If one looks at the hui, there was a 5 wave advance from nov 00 -dec 03, since then the action looks corrective. the may-june 05 pd is 50 % in time of that advance. a low in that period would mark a great buying opportunity.
on the other hand if the action since the 5 wave advance was a triangle, then this last low could be the buying opportunity. as bv pointed out above on the hourly chart it looks like 5 waves up, which means at the least we will get another 5 waves up. so, my strategy is buy some @the 3 wave pullback which will occur and buy the balance if there is a may-june low. opinions or ideas most welcome. dharma
on the other hand if the action since the 5 wave advance was a triangle, then this last low could be the buying opportunity. as bv pointed out above on the hourly chart it looks like 5 waves up, which means at the least we will get another 5 waves up. so, my strategy is buy some @the 3 wave pullback which will occur and buy the balance if there is a may-june low. opinions or ideas most welcome. dharma
Thor
Might consider adding BVN (sm. div.) and RGLD to your safe list. SIL too.
Might consider adding BVN (sm. div.) and RGLD to your safe list. SIL too.
wtz
At the risk of being wrong again - not a great risk anyway because I'm wrong all the time.
I think the chances of silver getting back in the $6 range again are slim and none.
I think the chances of silver getting back in the $6 range again are slim and none.
QUOTE(Old Habits @ Apr 20 2005, 09:51 PM)
Thor
Might consider adding BVN (sm. div.) and RGLD to your safe list. SIL too.
Might consider adding BVN (sm. div.) and RGLD to your safe list. SIL too.
To be honest the less risky portfolio isn't mine and appears to be an all Canuck affair. The riskier one is a recovery play of reasonabull pms, ones which have been trounced in this correction (all down at least 50% off their highs.)
Pullback time.
NEM has switched to short on my ST model but the Zow stubbornly stays long yet.
Good stocks to go green at this time 4/59:
GLD - the all metal affair
GRS
KRY
RGLD - hmmm some else mentioned this one.
NEM has switched to short on my ST model but the Zow stubbornly stays long yet.
Good stocks to go green at this time 4/59:
GLD - the all metal affair
GRS
KRY
RGLD - hmmm some else mentioned this one.
Out of miners. Metals up early no follow through in miners. Goodbye.
Now that 42 is clearly defined on NEM well have to see how it holds mid range of 40 area lows
50% back is the 41 area right now
50% back is the 41 area right now
...
Pulled - Mislabeled.
Best,
TCG
Pulled - Mislabeled.
Best,
TCG
XAU:
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.
A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.
I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.
The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.
A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.
I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.
The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.
QUOTE(bearvest @ Apr 20 2005, 10:41 PM)
XAU:
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.
A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.
I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.
The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.
So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?
It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.
A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.
I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.
The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.
So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?
It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.
QUOTE(Old Habits @ Apr 21 2005, 12:17 AM)
QUOTE(bearvest @ Apr 20 2005, 10:41 PM)
XAU:
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?
It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.
The little impulse completed this a.m.
Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.
So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?
It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.
Rallies emerge out of disbelief. I think Feedfool, who's a Master at Elliott, pointed out this pattern before I recognized it.
I'm still in show me mode. It looks like a legitimate bottom from an Dover Sole level, but I really haven't tried to put any upside targets on it. I have my core position hedged with covered calls and unless its going to new highs those calls should expire worthless. I'm still short puts on SSRI and MDG and I'm down on those, but the trades were entered with the willingness to be assigned. Most likely is the premium will burn and they will either expire worthless or I will buy then back lower at a profit. HUI having recaptured the 2/8 low of 190.45 looks good to go, but what a ride its been; I don't count on anything in this crazy market, PM or otherwise.
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