Ya know, I didn't say much for two days. Some say silence is golden. That may be true if you don't have a good thing to say, but when it comes to silence have you ever sat out in the middle of the woods where there is real stillness. If your a tree hugger you may find peace there, but I think it's a boring place to be unless you might be in a setting of some majestic trees with a good mountain view.

Anyway, I'm going to start the thread on a weekly basis and let it roll....

The good thing about a week long thread is that you can go back and review the weeks' posts.
Just don't review any of my predictions.

Arch Crawford on Crapvision today said something aligns Monday - a time of earthquakes, terrorist attacks, some kind of troubling event.
Says turn date for oil and gold is May 8th.

Hey, I'll add my vote for a weekly thread too, think its a good idea. I haven't been doing much other than checking on the daily close of my PM holdings. It could be we've all been lulled into something, but it doesn't feel like complacency, more like disgust. From a sentiment point of view, that's more bullish. I find myself thinking...oh I just don't care anymore, the action is somewhere else, I'll check later. That often seems to be the case before a big move.

I agree. Might still be some downside risk from here but I think longer term investors should probably just stay put and hang on for the ride. FWIW I have a turn date on May 10th. We get a good pop pretty soon. Playing the likely suspects again. NG WTZ SSRI and maybe DEZ. Move and close over last weeks high of 1.56 and we're off to da moon Alice. Love your Yogi quote Trin.

Since no one is putting anything out, guess I'll have to do it.

Sediment: Extremely negative which is bullish.

Silver: Patterns in the Weekly Silver chart are bullish and suggest a contained (<$8) move higher this summer. Could be that the first week in October will be the last chance to buy silver at these levels for the forseeabull. TARGET $14.50 in less than 1 year.

Zow: Just above major massive huge support at 85.
Reached an important support level at 0.2 oz Au (ie 1 oz of gold buys 5 Zowbucks.) Historically Zow tops out at about .375.

Hewey: 17 months since the last high. In the past since the end of '00, The time to pass the old highs following a significant correction (in months) was:
1,2,8,12,17+ so there is still time to be bullish.
RSI pattern suggests low is in.

Hewey/Zow: Very bearish.

Thornicators: Long Term: Double Yuck
Medium Term: Ditto
Short Term: (See LT & MT)

Gold Priced in $s: must stay above $410 to remain bullish. Probably should move to new highs by June if it is going to do it. If we start making lower lows on a monthly basis it will be an extremely bad sign and it will be time to move into some other classet.

Gold Priced in Yiros: Going nowhere but slightly positive technically. Still a bore.


Gold vs Silver: I figure we are heading for sub 50 Gold/Silver.

So let's assume that we do get the rally and Silver moves to $14.50, ratio to 50 then gold goes to $725 (Just below the 1980 secondary spike of $727). Zow peaks out at the same time at .375 which is roughly Zow 270. Hewey heads north of 625.
Silver stocks and juniors with potential will fare the best. A good portfolio could se ean appreciation of 400% (in the next 12 months mind you.) That will take some of the stress off you as Yank tank$ and interest rates rise.

Then you sell everything and buy a cheap house or acreage for cash. Well they'll be cheap by then.

Anyway this is all assuming we go up instead of down from here. Why do I think the bottom is in and we go up? Simple: Because everything I've just related is exactly what a bottom looks like. And the timing is good.

Hey, this is just like the old days when I was calling the Mar/Apr '03 bottom. But don't expect this kind of report every day. I have a real job too now.

Comments and discussion I hope will follow.

One last point to consider: HL (as an example) was trading for 3.23 times the price of silver in 1992 then bottomed at a woeful .107 in 2000. We are currently just uner .7 ... If it regains the lofty heights, then 1 share of HL will sell for over $46. HL (or something similar) would show a profit of $41/$5 (Current Price). That's an 8 bagger folks.

Have a nice weak end.

Oh mighty Thor I agree completely that gold in Euros is boring
But may be working towards a breakout up or down
The attached weekly chart for the last 9 years shows that long term momentum
has not changed for 12 months now

Hi tfh: Yes.

Individual stocks. For SILVER I would suggest looking at
CDE
HL
CDY
MFN
MGN
PAAS
WTZ
CFTN
NJMC
SHSH
SRLM
SSRI
VGZ

Microcaps to Midcaps there.


For Gold try:
CBJ
DEZ
EGO
GBN
GPXM
GSS
NXG
RANGY
TGB
AUY
RANGY

All juniors or midcaps.

Partial Disclosure: I own about half of these but I'm not telling you which ones.


Once again it behooves me to mention that you will not make your fortune by sitting on NEM. It is not going to move up to $400 a share. More like $100-$150. Still good kaching however. If your intention is to trade in and out on a swing or day basis NEM is far and away your best choice. But if you want to ride the wild smurf wave up to gold $725, then don't take out the Malibu. Get yourself a short board like the Billabongs mentioned above. Don't be a galah!

Thank you Age,ka. A couple of weeks ago I asked the question: When will the gold bull start? And I listed the conditions that would exist in a real gold bull market and we have none of them working at present. Thus I concluded that the gold bull that we are supposed to be in hasn't even begun yet. And that what we are in is merely a $ bear with an initial correction in gold from a deeply Dover Sole condition. That being said one of the pre-conditions for a real gold bull is price appreciation in most of the world's fiat. If gold rises to $725, the US$ would have to be pretty sick not to see a rise of Gold kgs priced in Yiros. Nevertheless, gold as an investment option does not have the same cachet to a Yourropepeein' as it does to a Meerkan. Your only hope is in the leverage power of gold shares or some such thing. Basically, if you're of the mind that gold is going up but also that the $ is going to tank, then holding the metal is going to be like kissing your own sister.

My fave raves in a good run are
CDE- Silver
TGB - Gold
KCKMF - Lottery Ticket (But I'm sure there are some Canadian traded lottery tickets which aren't even on my radar which could appreciate by 100s of times.)

Also worth considering the PGM stocks of PAL and SWC in any sustained move there. It's just I'm scared of the Russkies.

Ha, just noticed. The PGMs bottomed out at this time 2 years ago then topped out at about this time 1 year ago. Wouldn't it be weird if they bottomed again here. Of course in a manipulated market such coincidences are anything but. Not that I'm suggesting anything.

So let's assume that we do get the rally and Silver moves to $14.50, ratio to 50 then gold goes to $725 (Just below the 1980 secondary spike of $727). Zow peaks out at the same time at .375 which is roughly Zow 270. Hewey heads north of 625.
Silver stocks and juniors with potential will fare the best. A good portfolio could se ean appreciation of 400% (in the next 12 months mind you.) That will take some of the stress off you as Yank tank$ and interest rates rise.

Then you sell everything and buy a cheap house or acreage for cash. Well they'll be cheap by then.

That is exactly my plan. Looking for a VERY serious haircut in R.E.

Thor Gold bottomed April 4th 2003 316 and the miners bottomed earlier as you can see from this chart. My turn date of May 10th is the 1 year anniversary of last year's 163 HUI bottom. The fudge factor here is around a week or so. However this could very well mark a top as well as a bottom. We have to watch market action coming into the date.

Thor it does appear from here as if we have not yet begun a real bull market in Gold. Once we start to break out in currencies other than the US Dollar we may be there. Another condition yet to be met would be a greater rally than the largest in terms of space in the bear market. We would need a rally over $480 for that to be met. There is also that $505 hanging. I am sure dharma can think of a couple more being a proponent of Gann Theory. The metals have been despite some good gains early on quite a disappointment.

Silver did close weak on Friday

Just ran a (new) bullish stock scan for stocks $1 to $10. Turned up 25 stocks, 2 of which were from the PMS.

AUY
NG

The rest were a mix with many energy/oil stocks.

TFH - a top could NEVER be ruled out, but that chart doesn't really look too toppy. Interesting that so many have a turn date in the end of April, early May time frame.

BTW, read your post over on Hank's thread about USEG. Like the play. What is your upside target/sell point.

Old Habits if we were heading higher into May 10th whether or not it was a NEW HIGH I would be inclined to sell if I were long. That said it might only be a short term situation not even suitable for a decent trade. I'm more inclined to go with a low coming important or not within the next month. My target for USEG is the 6 area if I don't get stopped out first. As long as Dines minions co-operate I'm looking for much higher prices over the next few years if we survive.

Well I've been looking at a few things and have turned up a few interesting bits and bobs.

First I looked at RSI turns in the Hewey and USERX. Both support the concept of a bottom in PMS. Especially the Hewey which has had several of these bottoms since the Sudo-Bull commenced in 2000 with a retest in every case from 1 1/2 to 4 months later. These retests have had lower or higher low price and lower or higher RSI lows but each was a springboard to a good rally. We have had just such a retest. Unfortunately this does not preclude 1 further retest in the near term.

But the chart I like the best is NEM/$GOLD. No question but there is a bull market here. We are now very near the rising base at .09 and this would also be near the base for the 17 month long consolidation since the last high. The patterns suggest that the low is near in time although once again one more short sharp shock may be required before the springboard is in place. If POG holds above $410, I think NEM holds above $36.90. If we ever get there and you are waiting to buy back into the PMS, I would suggest a punt on any strength on the day that number (36.90) is reached. AND NOT NECESSARILY IN NEM. The PMS stocks could move up quite quickly thereafter without much in the way of pullbacks.

Why NEM/$GOLD? Takes out the movement of the US$ or the inflation component if you will and focuses on the underlying strength in a world made of gold.

All the bearishness and eyeing of the 150 HUI level is making me consider we may have already bottomed. Don't ask me I'm bi-polar.

Nova Gold

This one is worth a shot on a gap fill.

2 points. one. consider the fact that crashes are rare events. that being said, in the crash of 87, the pms were thrown out along w/ all types of shares. should a crash occur again, and the structure in the broads does not rule out this possibly. the broads are in a precarious space. diversify. have a good % in the metals.
two. yes while looking at a chart of gold in other currencies, it doesnt look like a bull. however, if one considers how many dolars other major industrialized countries have, then one can see that gold has appreciated vs their dolar holdings, which in many cases are substantial

fear greed dude:A good low was likely put in last week, but not after some historic volatility which included a three-day plunge of some 420 Dow points, a one-day bounce back of 200 Dow points, followed by Friday's late afternoon swoon of another 100 points.

Some key sentiment and technical factors point to a market rebound of 2%-4% over the next several weeks, based on Friday's closing price.

With sentiment reaching historic bearish readings, the rally could go further that expected. But, don't be fooled by this rally. The end is reasonably near, and much lower levels are than expected after the rally tops out.

Your signposts are the Daily charts on the OEX and SOX, where Fibonacci Cluster Resistance levels have been plotted.



The market has become increasingly selective, as the previous cyclical bull has drawn to a close. No new highs are expected. The market faces the major twin headwinds of significantly higher long term rates and slowing growth in the second half. A major top in the 10-year note is projected for June. This will be a big negative for stocks.

Michael Santoli in Barron's, points out that the "elevator" is clearly slowing down. "In 2003, 92% of all stocks were up, last year, 76% were winners. So far in 2005 only 38% are to the good." Factoring out energy, basic materials and utilities, it's a lot worse. As we've pointed out, trying to pick individual stocks, in this environment, is a losing proposition.

XAU (Gold Index)

The XAU is in the process of establishing bullish momentum divergences, as it bases around the 85-86 level.

Last weeks bounce came close to Fibonacci Cluster Resistance (See Chart), but higher levels should be seen.

With the average Weekly price lower for seven (7) weeks in a row, a strong rally is likely. If the 86.25 level is taken out, expect a bullish Weekly Squat to form and a highly probable market reversal.
dharma

I like the bit from feargreed dude on making a bullish squat if the XAU 86 level is taken out....

are you ready...

other general reading..
"Nice breakout by gold last week above short term resistance at $430! Its 200 day moving average has proven to be a reliable support level. MACD is trending higher."

http://dvtechtalk.com/April/April25.htm

Not sure if it was 2002 but there was a year when PM and bonds did very well...

Hulbert is asking the same question now at MarketHype with..
"Bottom for both gold and bonds?"

"An extraordinary thing happened earlier this month among the gold and bond market timing newsletters monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest. The average adviser in both camps became extremely bearish."

and the sum of it is..
"If we take seriously the contrarian analysis of these two sentiment indexes, what might they be saying about the future? The most straightforward interpretation, it seems to me, is that a crisis is imminent in which the viability of the financial markets is called into question -- one in which there is a flight to quality (such as government bonds) as well to hard assets (such as gold).

This isn't as far-fetched as it may sound, scary as it otherwise is. It is a scenario to which Richard Russell, editor of the Dow Theory Letters, has been giving serious credence for a number of months. Needless to say, Russell is not part of the bearish consensus that currently prevails in either the gold or bond arenas."

Guess what was overbougtht this time last year?
http://dvtechtalk.com/April/April26.htm

hint: something green and burnable...

Below is a chart of the XAU and the Dow from 1986-89.

Both crashed hard, but the metals rebounded nicely (but not for long!) in the aftermath.

Silver - Hopefully leading the way.

Unlike gold looking bullish across the board.
source:http://www.silver4x.com/

My old Gremlin?

There are so many factors effecting the price of gold that I tend to be less rigid in applying TA to it. The gold stocks, however, are not looking terribly healthy to me. I'm not much of a fundamentalist either, although it has primarily been the fundamentals of gold that have kept me in my positions. I have 6 positions left and am not inclined to sell them while we're in an Dover Sole condition. The selling of covered calls has lowered my cost basis, but I think the only one that's still in a positive net gain is GG. Sometimes I feel like such a fool for holding on in the face of technicals that were clearly pointing down. If it had been anything but PM's I'd have bailed long ago and been net short. While I have hedged by shorting ABX on a fairly regular basis, I have no short positions on now. As I stated above, its such a feeling of disgust, maybe I need to turn off Puplava and just trade the charts and read this forum..
Thanks guys, I really do appreciate your thoughts and observations.
XAU daily chart.

I keep thinking that the market is ripe for a crash, but somehow every bout of serious selling ends in a monumental short squeeze.
It seems that about 90% of the time the futures are goosed higher on everything with the exception of the metals - which are goosed lower.

I wonder sometimes if a doom and gloom scenario, where the economy goes to hell in a handbasket and the markets crash and gold shines isn't just wishful thinking on my part.
I also wonder if I'm part of a more negative crowd that is a little out of touch with reality, and things aren't really that bad out there.
My buddy just sold his house last week for a ridiculously inflated price. The person that bought it obviously doesn't think everything is doomed.
The only thing that has consistently performed poorly are the mining shares.

Well, there you go.

Existing home sales up 1% - better than expected!!!!

Stocks rise, $ rises, gold falls

There ain't no stinking R.E. bubble

Monday noon
gold positive despite DX up

DX near term resistance in the 84 area
weekly trendline down to 82.20 area

on a one year anniversary DX topped out in the 92 area and gold in the 380 area - this week I believe

$HUI - Daily Chart

post deleted.

XAU and NEM:

Looking for a bounce as the week wears on.

NEM should hit 42.50 or more--possibly 44.

Confirmation comes at 41.30, where the b wave is overlapped.

Long June 42.50 calls.

NEM:

A commentator has suggested that he's waiting to short NEM.

If he does it at the downtrend line, he's going to get his head handed to him.

The rally of Monday's low will be an impulse, even if it's a wave c in a correction.

Well, if you are correct then that should take us up to HUI 205 right around the 50 DMA - which is good for me as I bought a small amount of May 200 calls on the cheap today.

Obviously I'm hoping for a little quicker blast higher. I like the way the POG and the miners held up today and am little relieved that the HUI finished at the high of the day. Wouldn't it be nice to have an explosion in the HUI that takes everyone off guard?

some might even be shorting silver to see it dive down to the 7.10 area

Yep:

I think we saw a minute wave i of the impulse wave up today.

I'm looking for 5-7% off the lows, and fairly quick as we see wave iii of the impulse wave up unfold after a very small wave ii correction.

I can't tell where we are on the longer count, but the bounce should be a good one.

The intermediate term upper trendline on the daily on NEM is a long way away. And there's a gap to fill up there too.

Agree Bear. Long against Monday's lows is the play. Nice to see a full bodied candle over 8.50 in NG today.

Don't see gold and the buck higher at the same time like we've seen the last two days very often.

Either gold is very strong or the $ is weaker than it appears OR preliminary signs that gold may rise regardless of what currencies do?

watching for an upthrust here of the near term range...

gold leading with the break out of April 20 high

silver typically leads so a red flag here

[quote=Charmin,Apr 26 2005, 08:21 AM]
silver typically leads so a red flag here



Ya think? I think silver is ready to bust loose.

gapped higher on NEM and a few things I'm watching

just a near term flag that's all

RGLD busting out of a near term range abovve 19.50a rea

up to 20 highs..

and gold going up with Euro lower