NEM suffered a selling climax last week. You can be sure it's going to build sideways cause up to the $40 area. It may even dip a bit lower to retest the yearly low of $34.70 that came on May 10, 2004. After a selling climax I'd be watching for an automatic rally and retest. 1:1 ABC down was also hit.

Something particular seems to be going on with gold. It is trying to show some leadership over silver. It has not broken below 432 support area and silver is sitting at support around the 6.90 area.

Silver is in an ice area. A breakdown here and we could see the 6.50 area.

Present range is 439-432....

Ya know if the "stock market" is planning on breaking down to it's October lows by October with the Dow Domed House as a guide then I can't imagine the PM stocks are going to do much between now and then...

if there is a change about to happen I suspect we'll see it first right here.

actually, if silver breaks down first then we might have our first clue that gold is going to break below the 432 area

waiting and watching.....

HUI at demand line and 1:1 ABC down retest at the 170 area.

I think we enter a very important month... especially now that we are revisting some monthly/yearly lows on some of the PM stocks...

Seems like all us bugz are looking for a turn this month. Maybe soon huh?

Might see some short covering ahead of Greenspan tomorrow. I wouldn't be chasing any up moves today.

I tell you ... any "bugs" holding a portfolio of miners through this will be psychologically rattled. It sure has taken it's toll on me.

I hate complaining again and again.. but, MAN .. this has been brutal and grinding.

Well Hadj - the only ones on this thread that have been holding anything is you and me. Although I thought I read that the goober king was holding 137%

What troubles me most is that I don't know if this is a winnable battle. Are we seriously battling the government in a manipulated market? I don't know about you but my printing presses are down.

Well, at least the merchant bank stocks are down too.

On the holding part make that three - I have been holding
On the brutal and grinding if it stops now I will not complain anymore

Gold down over $5, Silver down .10

Miners at least are getting bids.. I expect anything from now on. The illiquid miners have been eviserating shareholders.

Hopefully my disgust will call the bottom of this nightmere. Nice place to be is just starting to add during this slaughter. Congrats to those that are smarter and sharper than me.

eviserating. Would ky help?

my feeling is that we are near the lows, but not there yet. i do think we are within 2 weeks of the low. we will see. there is lots of support @74-77 xau. dharma

Trader From Hell... No, sorry, I don't have experience with that product.

Main Entry: evis·cer·ate
Pronunciation: i-'vi-s&-"rAt
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): -at·ed; -at·ing
Etymology: Latin evisceratus, past participle of eviscerare, from e- + viscera viscera
transitive senses
1 a : to take out the entrails of : DISEMBOWEL b : to deprive of vital content or force
2 : to remove an organ from (a patient) or the contents of (an organ)
intransitive senses : to protrude through a surgical incision or suffer protrusion of a part through an incision
- evis·cer·a·tion /-"vi-s&-'rA-sh&n/ noun

It is so much more elegant if you call it Seppuku

Obviously you have to decide well in advance why you are doing it as precise etiquette varies


http://kyushu.com/gleaner/editorspick/seppuku.shtml

I'm with you guys. Its killing me.

Working overtime this last couple weeks, gonna buy 500 GSS on friday. I'll just have to keep doing that forever I guess...at least it takes me half as long to save up to do it now at 2.40 as it did when I started at 4.30. I think I can do it almost every month now...
2.30 to 2.40 on GSS is supprt from 2002/early 03, before the breakout where it ran over 8. Its come all the way back...amazing.


I await some comment from TFH about how I should be selling my GSS.

i am holding a small position about 20% of tradeable capital. concerned of course, i hate losing $$.
no matter how manipulated this thing is, at some point they always lose control. remember the biggest holders of gold are central banks. At some point they recognize that their holdings are appreciating. the usa is a young nation. these other countries have been around for a long time. they have experienced all kinds of monetary upheavls, ponzi schemes, and fiat currencies. they have all come and gone, yet gold has always remained as a monetary store of value. these central bankers have a keen sense of history. the cycles i follow point to a good 2nd 1/2 of year for pms. this next bit will mark the lows. i will be out most of this week. dharma

Ander buy something else. Please.

Ok, what?

WTZ revisited ice at 8.40 today....

you'd probably be happy with me if I said we'll see NEM at $40 before we see lower

right?

Bigtrends put out a sector report today- they are looking for XAU 62

"We'll set a target of 62.00 for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU). Keep in mind, though, that this is a multi-month stance.....and maybe even longer. The target of 62.00 (blue) is established there because that's where the index found support a couple of times in late 2002/early 2003. There is another potential support line at 75.60 (not shown), but we don't expect it to be a reversal point for this trend. Stops on this bearish bias come with a close above 90.30.

On a side note, gold is weakening primarily because inflation is likely to taper off. The Fed's 'measured' rate hikes have worked, and the economy is indeed cooling off (per the GDP report). With demand subsiding and supplies holding steady, we expect to see general prices come back to nominal levels. In other words, inflation is mostly contained. Without a need for a hedge against inflation, the demand for gold is dropping. Therefore, the price is too. "

Hey, we got a decent close...flat on a -$5 day for gold.

GSS releases on wednesday. Dropped a buck on the last couple releases...couldnt possibly happen again.

ok, so you explain why the XAU is green?

Bernie Mitchell's Fibonacci Impulse Commentary

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BEAR CYCLE IN FORCE, BUT RELIEF RALLY NOW.
April 30, 2005
Most market pundits continue to scratch their heads, unable to figure this market out.

On the other hand, our scenario for a grudgingly higher market - - after last weeks hesitation - - appears on track.

With unprecedented volatility continuing unabated, the General Market made another successful test of our Weekly "89" line at 544.93. Actual low 544.85, which was made on Friday, as massive sell programs tried to push the market through our long-term trend line. A late afternoon rally drove the market comfortably above the line, closing at 552.74.

Our technical and sentiment studies are modestly biased to support a relief rally, but our Volume Demand Index (VDI) remains overwhelmingly bearish for the longer term.

The market remains in a bear cycle, but should get a reprieve over the next few weeks, with an intermediate high likely to arrive around mid May.

Basis the OEX, our proxy for the General Market, 561.68 looks like an important Fibonacci Cluster Resistance level, that should stop the advance.

The SOX continues to lag, registering new lows last week, suggesting limited upside for the market.



After this important sign-post is reached, another major correction is due but no new lows --and then a final rally to a major high the first week in July. At that point, the market will be at its most vulnerable. A potential washout is then likely, with OEX 433 as a major support level, but ultimately we see the possibility of 405, before the bear cycle ends in 2006.

XAU (Gold Index)

The gap under 85.71 last week surprised us, despite steady bullion prices. At least another two weeks are needed before a major low will form.

The market appears to be sensing sharply higher interest rates in the second half, coupled with a worldwide economic slowdown, which would curtail jewely sales.

A triple bullish momentum divergence is in the process of being formed. The biggest volume in 52 weeks strongly suggest capitulation. We think lower Fibonacci Cluster levels can be seen over the next two weeks, which will set-up for a major bottom .support 77.73 and 75.96
dharma

Mr. Bigtrends must be Kookie...

Daily hammer on the HUI and XAU...

Now they give us 2 up days before another 6-8 down

More buyers than sellers. Took a fractional long position today PMPIX.

You gotta love that explanation.

How about NG SSRI WTZ DEZ. By the time yer done they may have to rename Ghana after you.

Charmin- I sincerely hope you don't send any of your hard earned $ to Mr. Bigtrends himself Price Headley, who BTW was a guest on one of the FOX Sunday a.m. prognosticating shows.

I know I have shared the story of Mr. Headley's money management skills for none other than yours truly.

Hadjin, if your listening, we should be fairly close to going parabolic in the miners. If Headley thinks the XAU is going to 62, then rest assured, it is going to 162.

He is an absolute schmuck.

Uh, inflation is now contained. Okay but what about deficits? Stagflation? Falling Buck?

Dharma - if we're concerned about the consumption of jewelry then I think we're in the wrong sector.

I thought today was very positive. Very.

TFH,

I'll throw a nod in your direction...

Best,

TCG

Me too.

And after GSS reports and drops the mandatory buck, it should be all up from there

NEM:

Long term, here's where I stand.

We are in a nasty 4th wave (the black numerical count). It should be a flat. That's a 3-3-5 pattern.

From the 2003 highs, there's an obvious abc down into May. The rally off the May lows, at wave A, follows a channel, but it constantly overlapped. Bullish looking, but a corrective pattern, nonetheless. That is wave B. It failed to achieve a price high. PPO divergence confirmed that it was corrective.

Recent action is a 4th of what will be 5 in a final C wave of the flat. From the small black wave b, one can see a short 1 down, a short or sideways 2 up, a long 3 down, and sideways action for 4.

I do not subscribe to the bearish consensus that we'll head significantly lower.

We should see a bottom within the next 5-8 trading days.

Thanks TCG.

ok then, this morning I get another daily update from Bigtrends and it's non other than a study on why the dollar is going higher. You do know that Uncle Buck could go to 87 right?

"OK, so what's the deal behind the dollar's weakness? And more importantly, when will it end? We discussed this in detail in November, but we can summarize it here in a few words - the dollar is weak because inflation (in dollars) is greater than the interest rates you can receive on dollar-denominated assets. In other words, you're losing buying power by holding cash. Remember in the late 90's when you were receiving 4% on a money market account? With inflation just above 3% at the time, there was at least some incentive to own dollar-based assets. But think about what happened when the Fed had to drop rates. Now you might get 0.5% on a money market (if you're lucky), but inflation never sunk that low. About the lowest inflation rate we saw was 1.0% (from mid-2002). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that you were losing money by accepting low yields on your money market, because the prices of.....well, everything was increasing at a greater rate. The same scenario applies U.S. government bonds, CDs, etc. Who'd want to own something that was effectively going to lose money? The demand for dollar-denominated assets dropped like a rock beginning in mid-2002, and the dollar's value dropped accordingly (the supply and demand model works for currencies too). The bottom line is simple - a dollar was a liability rather than an asset."

When he gets it up on his site I'll try to post the link

The Dollar, Take 2
May 3, 2005

I liked the simultaneously contradictory Orwell-speak, to arrive at the same conclusion that Gold is going down:
Mr Bigtrend : "the Fed succeeded in controlling inflation, ergo Gold down"
Mr Impulse : "the market senses inflation and recession in jewelry, ergo Gold down".

I bet those brain-impaired persons never heard about Popperian logic .

128.20 on Euro holding - with decent reaction

silver acting better than gold

ok who thinks rises to $40 first....

Okay - $40 before 34.75 for NEM

I'm hearing more and more voices in the $ rally camp. It has rallied from what, just under 81 to 84.50 since the beginning of the year?

It seems to me it is getting to the point in TIME where it needs to assert itself higher to the 87 area or succumb to the downside.

Haven't seen the COT data in a while - has anyone been watching? can you post a link?

well then lets watch the retest of 84.60 and low close...

Hmm, dollar down, gold also down, miners NOT down?

This is the last COT I saw

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

Hoping for the best but it might be just some short covering. Buying any big breaks tho.

This is the last COT I saw

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

[/quote]

Thank you.

It 's amazing how the market never falls after a Fed meeting. We should get the usual spike up in the last hour and all day tommorrow.

Unfortunately not a very strong rally in the miners and might indeed be a bit of short covering. Too bad, I'd like to see a quick move back up to 190-200. Oh well.

I agree. But we're in the zone that Ike said wold likely be a bottom.


Note the positive divergence here...lower low on the HUI but higher on RSI, stochastics. That wasnt the case on previous ST bottoms...

TFH, because GSS has started to rally, I think I'll be buying QEE instead on friday...

What is Brian new website? Thankn You