The Sunday Night rage on M2M is Wndy ....

"Asian Central Banks must be re-accumulating T-Bones, Fannie Fubar paper, or other MBS garbage. Relentless appetite for U.S. Dollars continues in Asia.

On the verge of a breakout..........

'G-7 Bullhorns are out.

This is why the dollar is rallying. Euroland and Japan are a "disaster", U.S. Consumer remains "resilient"....."

Hey, I'm just watching WTZ rise.... what else is there to do...

Thanks Ageka.

Best,

TCG

XAU hits demand line and bounces... new high needed..

Charmin:

Great chart. But the bounce counts as a 4th wave, possibly in a third wave of C.

I think there's a good possibility that it's going to hit that demand line one more time before the correction is over.

Here's the real short term.

Action today should help to resolve matters.

While I think that the Miners have more downside, I'm starting to look for long entries.

SMSC has a number of picks at the public chart lists on Stockcharts.com. He says buy the stocks that have mo-mo going for them already.

I've been whippsawed repeatedly by CBJ.TO. I thought that the accumulation/distribution indicator was bullish all through the decline.

It was, of course, until everyone exited on the last downdraft. So much for volume indicators.

It's major wave 5 time up, shortly.

That means that every dog will have it's day. In my opinion, the dogs will run, as all the garbage is fair game in wave 5.

That brings me back to CBJ.

A 61.8% correction targets 2.11. Where C=A the target is 2.02.

In a C wave, trend should not show any positive divergence. After all, third waves are the most powerful.

The stochastic's buy signal on a weekly chart is interesting.

Translation from Canuck to American. Buy between 2.02 and 2.11 CDN, and 1.43 and 1.58 USD.

Intresting charts and analyses

http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-bin/index.cg...ory&Command=618

Yes, on the XAU I forgot to plot the ABC down target....

it must be about here anyway....

with DX up over the weekend might be expecting a revist of highs in the 86 area and silver retesting lower.... looks like a retest of creek in the 7 area this morning...

copper at resistance with layers of resistnce from 146 on up..

Looks like a buy signal on AAUK.

ANGLO AMERICAN (AAUK) Weekly

at some point you'd expect reactions in DX and Euro

so we're looking for springs and upthrusts in DX and Euro at resistance and ice...

second day that silver is stronger than gold

little breakout in WTZ last three day trading range

make that an upthrust of trading range

friday gap closed on GG
13.80 highs as trading range highs

Wondering if anyone saw Jeffrey Saut and some other guy interviewed on Crapvision Friday by Maria. I only caught a glimpse.
The subject of the jobs number came up and Maria was gushing about the 274K jobs being created.
Jeffrey Saut said something to the effect "the thing about the jobs number that I don't hear on your show or any place else is that 250K of the 274K were due to a new way the government counts jobs" or something to that effect or "the government is now adding ----- to the jobs number".

Anyway, the camera flashed back to Maria who had looked over her shoulder like WTF? Then looked back in the camera and completely ignored the remark and went into another question.
Within a 10 seconds they lost contact with both guests. After a short commercial break they were able to get the other guy back on satellite but not Saut.

Was I seeing things? Did anyone else watch this?

Why wasn't the market rallying hard on those jobs numbers Friday and today?

Charm - you're right. Silver is going to lead.

lookk at TIV retesting early April highs just above 12
clearly defined creek

Old Habits... I say forget the news - it's only volatility in the short term - the market is going to support or resistance no matter...

can you trade news? I can't

Charm - I can't trade period.

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".
"Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best.

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

...and that's the last we'll hear of Jeffrey Saut in the mainstream financial press. He's toast. In fact you might say he has been sauteed.

However I hate to disagree with you about the news. It is the best way of finding out what "they" want you to do and what "they" want you to think. This is invaluable information especially in the short to intermediate term. Like the $105 barrel of oil. I remember when some one in my office (Kufpec) mentioned that to me implying how good this will be. All I could think of to say was "I guess somebody wants to sell a lot of oil contracts." Long term they will almost certainly be right but short to medium term what a great sell signal. This is why the sudden rush to press of $500 gold articles has me so worried. Like anything has really changed in the last few days/weeks? Like with GM and its pension woes. Oh, like there was a surprise, who knew, eh? If and when the $ plummets and gold goes through the roof over the long term, what a surprise it will be. Oh my.
But I digress, I was talking about the news. Another reason for following the news is because it is a great source of comic relief.
Don't you just ache for 1 of those days where the PMS stocks making 10% up moves are your laggards?
I'm sure there's 1 coming. Some day.
Paid $100 for an article on how to buy penny gold stocks the other day. I'll save you the C-note and give you the gist of it. Buy high quality junior mining stocks that are in a proven uptrend with excellent exploration potential and low production costs and simply wait for them to be caned back into pennies per share.
But seriously folks!

I guess being sauteed is better that being skewered? No, maybe not.

News does matter, news makes charts - rarely the other way around. Still can't trade it.

Thor-
are you sure everyone knows that gold is going to $500?

It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone here, then again we're talking about ten people.
Do you think the masses go to gold eagle or read the GFMS report? Occasionally we'll get a gold segment on financial news, but that was back at the highs. Now, Crapvision posts a chart two or three times a day when Santelli is on for a quote.

I don't know, when I mention gold to friends, even ones that follow the markets, I still get that look of why????

Bearvest have you looked at KRY?

I gotta tell ya, if I had any balls at all I'd sell every damn loser and buy KRY with the proceeds, that stock is a stud.

At last we have thrown off the shackles. We are no longer tied to physical. Interestingly enough ole Hewey has been twisting and turning in nearly lockstep with the POS for over a year now. Well at least it was until April. After that there has been no correlation at all. What does that mean? Well if you think it means that the $HUI is leading and silver will soon follow, you might be right. However, I think that usually works in a short time frame but a month and a half? Maybe at major turn points like 2000 but here after a sizeable decline? No, I think it's different this time. Why? Because gold and silver are valued in $s and miners are valued in gold and silver. WHAT? Sure! In these inflationary times gold and silver standing still means the miners becoming less profitable all the time. We need rising metal prices just to stay in place. We need escalating metal prices to really get a nove up in the PMS. It's as if somehow we need to factor the (POO) price of oil into the PMS/POG and PMS/POS equations. It IS different this time because oil has risen hard and gold has lagged. Miners must bear these costs and in order to do this profitably they need to sell their product at a higher price. But ah there's the rub.

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

silver reacted just a tad at 7.07 highs

Oh no, you've got me all wrong. I'm not saying everyone knows gold is going to $500. Its not that at all. And I know for sure that gold is anywhere but mainstream. It's not even a backwater. More like Altus, Arkansas.
Did the news of $500 gold make any real stir? No, but the $105 oil was headline news. Still you have to ask yourself why was there a sudden rush of $500 gold predictions that even made it into the daily broadsheets and such. Maybe it's nothing but I worry about shit like that. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if gold was rising and people were politely ignoring it or better yet casting aspersions on it.

84.60 looks like a creek on DX with two days upthrusts

yeah, sometimes the news is used to suck people into a market just to distribute.....

meanwhile, SP500 moving up a tad ...

impressed with WTZ at 9 resistnace area

Thanks Charm
I'm sure I could find a way to lose $ trading no matter what chart or time frame I use. I don't have the mental make-up to be a trader, you know the one that doesn't hang on to losing trades?

Gotta agree with you on "this time is different scenario with oil" Thor. Miners will be limited in their ability to rally until the metal starts to go. Inflation is killing their profits.
This is why I find HUI 300, XAU 155 by year end so absurd. If you're betting on HUI 300 then you better be betting on gold $500+ and beginning to rise against all currencies.

Which begs the question, WTF am I doing in this sector?
Oh yeah, gold is going to $1650

Nothing works all the time. I took down another position in USEG at 3.80 risking to the double bottom of 3.70. I quite naturally took myself out at 3.66. Stock went to 3.50 and the sob made a high today at 4.30. It ain't easy.

I think you traders might have a tradeable bounce here up to HUI 200, Friday was the clue.
Then maybe we get Dharmas "one more low" but not lower than 180.

I can be as wrong as anyone else.

Looking for the $ rally to end very soon, either that or we trade in this range of 82.50 to 85 for a couple more months. Then resumption of downtrend.

OH,

Again kinda sorta hafta disagree wit ya on the breakout thing. BUT and it is a big butt it is all in how you define breakout. And how to know when you are wrong and get out (or reverse). When the support doesn't hold it can be very profitable and the same when resistance breaks. If the breakout has nearby support then the risk reward is there. The best breakouts are often early ones. No need to wait for new 52 week highs to call it a breakout. It's a breakout if you pass any area that has stopped you recently.
I just had a look at KRY and indeed it is holding up well during a period of falling prices. Difficult one for the traders who work like me but have a look at the cycles for those of that ilk. Last 3 months nearly perfect monthly symmetry. Up into the mid-month then down into month-end over and over. Scary!

NG is ok as long as we don't close under 7.90. Low risk but I'm waiting here.

dont' see much demand volume or price in NEM on an hourly chart

The market is one good way to loose money ain't it...

and yes, stops are a good way to get taken out - the big boys can see em plainly....

they got to be far enough away....

next resistance on TIV in the 14 area

That and women. Good thing about the market is the ability to kick out bad positions quickly.

relationships are more important than all the money in the world - just look around.... plenty of evidence for that

Charmly,

We seem to be reading from the same hymnbook. Currently for my swing trading model I use 65 minute charts. Why 65 minutes. Well nobody else uses them. No, so each day fits into an even number of periods close to 1 hour. For support and resistance I use this timeframe's S/R. I run these in conjunction with a 10 period weighted moving average.
Here's an example. NEM rolled over on Thursday but remained in a tight range. However on Friday it opened below near term support in a new downtrend. IMMEDIATE SELL at or near the open 38.20. We stretched down to 37.66 but that's been it. We appear to have turned green again this period. However this is complicated by a gap closure this morning. So one could buy on a new high in the next period or on a move above 38.50. Third choice but not favoured is the breakout of 39.00. Then again if we can't get it up any further then we are short from around these levels.
This is just the first example that came to hand and not a very good one. VLO and RIMM usually provide much richer picking then NEM.

little upthrust on silver to 7.11

ok there Thor - I'm trying to sing from it...
I was looking at ES the other day and hourly volume is the highest since a while ago and the result is traders took profit....

anything less than 60 min and I got brain damage, but very informative also..

Hey, DX is lower than creek at 84.60

time to watch here.....

looks like a test of the trendline.... and creek at 84.60

next resistance above on DX is 84.97.....85.30-85.50

IMO we need a close over 40.23 to turn the trend up. I will buy lower but that gap is serious resistance.

meanwhile - QQQQ retest of 36

oh yeah, QQQQ retested resistnace before ES....

I was thinking more of new 52 week highs. But I guess I could see buying the a breakout above resistance on a stock that has been beaten up.

Stops are verrrry tricky indeed. It seems they are made to be taken out.

Just ask Hamilton.