We've been ground down now on the XAU to a 1:1 price objective that was hit in the 80 area. Being weak you sometimes have to expect price to go lower to find demand. In that case maybe the XAU needs to spring below the May 10, 2004 low of 76.79 to find some.

If we weren't wet sawdust I'd almost have to say that any spark lit on this sector would turn into a real flame...

Frank Barbera and Bernie Mitchell think it's near...
http://www.feargreed.com/archive.php - 5/22 comments by Bernie
http://www.feargreed.com/archive.php - 3rd hour with Frank - 50 min. noted.

and WTZ acted like a turd - but an omen to silver reaching 7.20 area resistance and acting the same..

I know! Isn't it simply dreadful!

I don't believe I ever mentioned the new-wife-to-be's name. See if you can guess.

I think only Mahendra could answer that

Brumhilda

tfh --

Sorry to be a nuisance. Poking around within "My Controls" don't find anything that tells me how to add an automatic quote to the bottom of my posts. What should I click on?

I don't have anything gripping to say, but the quote is a winner.

tia

Harmony flying overnight. Close over 6.97 is bullish.

Open controls. Personal box on left. Edit signature.

Sigh and I'd,

When you click reply and the reply box comes up do you see the box which says QUOTE in the Code Buttons box above? If so hit it enter your quote and hit it again.

... and her name... MorAss

Say it ain't so Thor.

The Horror.

Rubens would like that

Nice little snapback after opex last week. The million dollar question - does it have legs? Somehow I doubt it. Maybe that's a good thing.

Thor said something about 350 HUI - my dreams of 350 have turned into nightmares of 100 HUI.

Posted this last nite - worth posting again.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/ho...berg052205.html

added to my HL in here.

Yes, I'm the one to fade..

charms,seems the link to frank, brings one to bernie. maybe all roads lead to bernie? do you have a better link. tia dharma

dharma go to Pups site Financial Sense and look in the left hand column for Barbera's article. Suffice to say he says if ya can't buy here ya can't buy at all.

Well Ander maybe I'll bring you some luck. Bot some GSS today. Looks very close to a breakout.

Crapola.. Crapvision is going to have a special on Gold this last trading hour. "Should you own it" ? Complete with pictures of big Gold bars and all...

Heck yeah.
Short term, higher low, higher high. +8%.

I dont really know that that matters.

I remember back in 2002, with gold down in the 300 area, they had this interview with a guy telling us to buy gold. And I rememeber that at the time, I thought 'Ha, gold is stupid, it just sits there!'

Okay now THAT was a rally. Why?

Advancers 71
Decliners 12
Unchanged 17

SOLID PERFORMANCE in A/D showing broadbase.

BuST 19% - Big Improvement in short term bullish PMS stocks.

BP 9% - Less ugly!

BuLT GPXM,IAG,MDU,RIC,USGL - Same

NeWrecks: PMU

On a personal note my fartpolio, of beaten down train wrecks and falling knives soundly trounced the indices up 4.5% with an A/D of 12 to 1.

Across the board there was a more than reversal of friday's losses which is a bullish reversal.

PMS up, Fizz (POG & POS) down.

There's more but tired now. So, can I just end with ...

THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT!"

Hehe. Same here.
GSS, SSRI and WTZ all amazing today.

On the 4 stock model:

NEM went long on a break above 35.50 and the moving average followed turning up. Now a break of 36.50 could bring in some buying. This is another excellent example of a stock breaking out of near term resistance just like the break above (on the open Tues) 35.20. For a longer term perspective however (days rather than hours) $36.50 is the level to watch.

VLO continued its uptrend but nay need a break. This goes for KLAC as well. RIMM, went so far as to go short in the last hour on the break of $79.50 support, however the moving average is still climbing so that one has to be watched carefully.

A little more on the PMS:

Outperformers today:

EGO -You little beauty - Up 14.42%
DEZ - +9.35%
GSS - +8.56%
GBN - Goober Broadcasting Network - +7.59%
QEE - +5.56%
NXG - +5.31% (although my screen is showing up 32% I don't think so.)
TGB - +4.82% Potential big turnaround here for this train wreck.
GRS - +4.74% Don't have this one but I watch it. Price too high.
CDE - +4.73%
PMU - +4.55% ThorAss' turnaround Wreck'o'da'day.

XAU:

Still too early to break out the champagne.

The 60 minute chart shows we're waffling around in a fourth wave of 5 of c or 3 (and, as I believe, wave 3 of C).

It is near completion, and wave v of 5 should complete the pattern, and complete wave 3 of C.

Turning to the daily, the MAY 16th low shows positive divergence on MACD. I suggest that wave v will create a second divergence, as the extension of the already extended 5th plays out. That is the buying opportunity. But it's only a swing trade, in what I believe will be wave red 4 of C on the weekly.

Turning to the weekly, the incomplete black C wave is only 3 waves down (and not yet complete, as stated above). It should be 5 waves.

Black ABC should be a 3-3-5, terminating around 76 to complete a pattern known as a flat. In other words, I'm looking for a double bottom over the next several weeks.

Gold should slump to $414, but XAU should be supported by Silver.

Bear 5% downside from here hardly seems worth the concern. What would it take to invalidate the current wave count and have you change the count so that we made bottom already?

Trader,

I can't see a bottom on any count. We may bottom sooner than later, if the Black C wave on the monthly is a 3 wave affair instead of 5.

The 60 minute lacks impulsiveness in the 'a' wave. I posted earlier that it looks like a rising abc.

I have real reservations about my daily count as a 5th wave extension of an already extended fifth. But with all that action in what I count as wave 3 on the monthly, it fits my "flat" theory. All of the downside energy is expended in wave 3 so that wave 5 is a mere whimper.

Why buy now rather than later? One looks for stocks that alrady have 5 waves down so that in waves 4 and 5 on the index, they are tracing out waves 1 and 2, and setting up 3. These will be the powerhouses. Right now it's a bit too early to tell.

To fairly answer your question, a significant overlap of 84.35, wave 1 on the 60 minute chart, would require a re-assessment of my short term count.

XAU and USD:

USD is the mirror image of XAU.

We are completing wave 3 of red C or 3 up of Black C.

We are likely still in micro 5 of 3 up in the dollar, while XAU is in micro 5 of 3.

The black C wave on the dollar should be 5 waves, not 3.

I have established a minor position in a couple of stocks and am waiting to buy the bulk of my position. The two stocks I have purchased could qualify as having completed their bear move. GSS and HMY. I am curious if you have read Frank Barbera's thoughts posted at Financial Sense. Thanks for your response.

I have established a minor position in a couple of stocks and am waiting to buy the bulk of my position. The two stocks I have purchased could qualify as having completed their bear move. GSS and HMY. I am curious if you have read Frank Barbera's thoughts posted at Financial Sense. Thanks for your response.

[/quote]

Trader,

No, I haven't read Barbera.

As far as GSS goes. the chart since the May 10th lows does not evidence a count. There's an old saying, "If you can't count it, it's corrective".

CMF and MACD evidence very long term positive divergence, while Monday's spike challenges the upper band of very narrow Bollinger Bands.

HMY, I suggest, has shown chart strength merely because gold has fallen less than the dollar rallied over the last little while.

Silver:

As some of you know, I have a day job as a trial lawyer.

This often takes me away from the markets intra-day.

If, as will occur this week, when my trials are out of town, I have a limited ability to post daily. So I'm trying to get it in now.

Here's where I think we are in silver and PAAS. It's not much different from my dollar and XAU counts.

Silver should rally up to 7.04 to 7.10 and possibly go sideways. Then it should crack to 6.87 or higher, but not substantially violate 6.85 (for more than 3 days if it does).

This puts in the 'e' wave. If so , we rally to 8.10 or so. Wave 'e' often undershoots or overshoots the rising lower trendline.

PAAS seemed to smell a bottom on Monday. It rose 4%, against a flat day for the underlying commodity, on low volume. Short covering?

I think we have one more drop in PAAS that takes out the recent low of 12.31.

Then, it's bonanza time.

A serious violation of 6.85 sets up the very bearish Prechter count of a series of 1-2's leading to a series of 3rd of 3rd's, however. I'm not in this camp.

SSRI:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050523/235225.html?.v=1

Trader,

Is this the Barbera article you're referring to? Over a month old?

Or is there something more recent?

I, for one, don't follow counts over 4 years old. That, in my opinion, is the extent of any market cycle, for both trading and investment purposes.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/b.../2005/0414.html

The chart for XAU is corrective, yet it has soared. Hui's chart is impulsive.

Both point higher, eventually.

My flat theory is, by the way, illustrated in the chart.

Trader,

So far, those bearish engulfing candles on Friday on the daily $C buck and Swiss franc haven't done much by way of follow through.

I suspect you've got to relate them to the overall trend pattern.

On the other hand, it made my trip to Michigan to do some outlet shopping with Lady Bearvest a tad more expensive. Just my luck.

Bearvest this is his most recent article I think

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/b.../2005/0519.html

Thanks Ageka that's the one. Good read Bear.

No violation on the candles yet although the Cando is close. There's an old saying sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes he eats you.

Sometimes an upside down view looks different
Attached the euro value in dollars

Don't know if others saw the GG interview on Crapvision late yesterday afternoon. But, the odd thing that occurred was that BOTH guests, the GG CEO, and a well known name over the years (I can't recall now..lol) who runs a Gold Fund and was a writer, were kind of negative in some of their comments on the future for Gold looking ahead if the Dollar rallied or if general business conditions stayed like they are.

It was odd, and refreshing.

I think Barbera alludes to some Fed speak as a potential catalyst to moving the buck lower. Maybe the Fed minutes show some concern of a slowdown. That seems to be what the treasuries are saying.

Took a stab at some EGO although I'm a little concerned that it's down on pretty heavy volume today. Think I'll put a stop in on that one, just in case someone knows something I don't.

Doubled up on QEE, only because I'm a masochist. What is it about the lure of penny stocks. The POG is going to have to probably hit 550 before QEE makes any money.

I'm trying to buy it at .18, all day. Havent got it yet. See if I get lucky.

added some yesterday am, about 50% long now, will add the balance on a test of the lows. which i expect in the next week or two. my count is the same as bv. i do think that the next rally, once the lows are tested will be spectacular. yesterdays action showed that. i am buying beaten up juniors. will add gg, paas, and nem on the test. dharma

Zow up 2.46% but I was up less than a %. What's up with that? Let's look at the technicals.

Advancers 61 down 10
Decliners 30 up 18
Unchanged 9

so the rally's breath is beginning to stink.

Bullish PMS ST - 18%
BP% - 11% Up 2% - Improving.
Bullish PMS LT - GPXM, IAG, MDU, RIC

NuWrecks:
AEM,MNG,TGB

So some quality stocks there on the new recommended list.

4 Stock Model - May 24

NEM - Continued on upcycle from $35.51 buy(May 23), close $36.75.
VLO - Continued on upcycle from $60.01 buy(May 16), close $67.48.
RIMM - Reverse to short was indeed premature, short from $79.49(May23), reversed to long at $79.76 (Loss $0.27), close $81.46.
KLAC - Continued on upcycle from $39.51 buy(May 9), close $44.49.

Our stuff moved yesterday, the 'normal' stuff moved today.

I think we've seen the momentum bottom. Last Friday just might be the best low close you get to buy. Downside is limited although we could pullback at any time. If we pullback over the next day or so 175-176 should be a place to add for an attempt at the 200 HUI area. No sense trying to be too cute from here on out. My plan is mostly PMPIX and some beaten down old Star. To da moon.

A short term low around June 10th would be nice...if you can manage it.

Thanks!

Works for me too. Dowry check clears Thor?

Almoost! It's when I can bank all the wedding "gifts" which here in Indonesia is the cold hard folding variety!! Not that I'm getting married for the profits or anything but when you throw a party for 800 of your closest friends it's nice when they show their appreciation. Fortunately the booze bill will be low.

When anybody asks me what I think about the whole affair I'll tell them it's just like that movie... you know... MY BIG FAT BATAK WEDDING.

XAU:

Here's the 60 minute I've been working with.

It sure looks like wave iv of 5 of 3 of C., even though it is disproportionately large in relation to wave ii.

If this count is right, a significant bottom awaits in the next few days.

Seems right on. I will be selling the trades on a pop in the morning and adding them back on the pullback. Everything else will stay where it's been for the last two years.
I'm really hoping the miners start to lead the metal this time around, which should indicate that the "spectacular rally" is for real. So far, so good.