I can see a tad of supply come in and the 196 level on HUI looks like a creek. The ol scout may have to back up and get a running jump of that level... but that also means he's got to scout out the stream father down. No telling how much time he needs for that. It's starting to warm up and get buggy, so maybe he's inclined to sit by the creek and dip his toes in the cool water for a bit and splash some water on his face.

XAU (Gold Index)

As the Dollar started to weaken, after finally stopping at 1.2184 (actual low 1.2184!) versus the euro, bullion finally got off its back, and rallied . This provided more ammo for the gold stocks, which have now rallied a stunning 15% since the low 14 days ago.

Upper Fibonacci Cluster Resistance has been reached (89.77), and Friday, the market started to pull back.

More correction time is needed, and we look for 85.61 --84.39 as good Fibonacci Cluster Support levels to establish longs.

http://www.feargreed.com/

USEG up .75 to $5.26 on 900K after only 40 minutes of trading..

That's a volatile booger.

Nice to see the likes of NXG and GBN back over a buck, even if it is temporary. Those things were getting ugly.

i am still looking for a pullback. i do think the market has begun its ascent. the action so far is encouraging for the bulls(ie. since the lows) dharma

charms gives bernies fib retracement points above (85.6 and and 84.4) mine is actually 84.2 and 82.8 should the market do a .618. saville has an acticle on safehaven, where he says the low will come in october. as in the low hasnt been seen yet. perhaps, but i think the lows have been seen and i am playing it that way. dharma

Rising gold price is interrupting our pullback.

Well there is about a 15% chance that Saville could be right.

The last two Octobers have been closer to a high than a low. The last time Oct. was a low was in 02'.

Silver looks like it's about done for awhile. The silver miners are acting like at least a pause but more likely a pullback is forthcoming. I hope it's just a pause and not one of those gut-wrenching $1 pullbacks.

Silver looks like it's about done for awhile. The silver miners are acting like at least a pause but more likely a pullback is forthcoming. I hope it's just a pause and not one of those gut-wrenching $1 pullbacks.

[/quote]


O.H.--

I'm a little more constructive on Silver and the silver stocks.

Silver daily has us testing resistance, but the breakout from the triangle says we should see $8.00.

The 60 minute on PAAS seems to indicate that we're still in wave 3 and should rally before seeing a larger pullback in wave 4---with 5 still to go.

I see the possibility of resistance near the 52 week highs for PAAS over the next month or two.

I hope you're right Bearvest. I'd much rather see it go up.

It just appears to have lost some momentum and is struggling with $7.60. Seems to me it's running out of time short term. That and the Commercials adding shorts.

Goldman Sach's downgrades the gold and steel sector.

Does that indicate that we are closer to a bottom than a top?

Criminals.

hadjin, i think it was you who posted an article about a south american country nationalizing its oil reserves? think that could happen to metal stocks should a run begin in earnest?! which companies should be avoided? tia dharma

Buy North American only.

Light volume selloff today. Hopefully this will be a fairly vanilla pullback.

I understand Mcavity and Dines are not pm friendly at this time. Mc has a long standing target of $375 Gold open while Dines thinks the HUI is in a downtrend. I don't get Deliberations or TDL so I can't elaborate. so far the volume on the pullback in fairly encouraging for the bullish side. Looking to reinstate longs 178-180 HUI at this point.

wow, I must of scared everyone away....

XAU is now in the midst of Bernie's Fib squat of 85.61 --84.39

closed low at 85.44

watching WTZ at the 9 area creek
SSRI at 11.50 creek
PAAS in the low 14 area creek

and either the possiblity of trading range highs recently or we build cause here and then move higher...

what could be worrisome is the general market sinking off the highs and dragging the liquidity out of the PM sector

our demand rally is over... just need to see the supply dry up and move sideways.. and if so.... at a higher level...

tfh, i subscribed to mcivity years ago, he didnt make money trading. what mines are only n.american. it is possible this was an A up, we are in B now, and C wave up is next. then back to lows. i will get into a strategy once the next wave up occurs. dharma

Bernie's latest..
The XAU pulled back towards Fibonacci Cluster Support, where longs should be scaled in

chart
http://www.feargreed.com/showgraph2.php

as of yesterday Doc was showing the 17 and 29 day rate of changes still positive...

rsi divergences, on the hourly xau. @ .382 . could be the bottom, but i am waiting. if this is the bottom, it shows great strength. dharma

GG has some support below 14... looks pretty good so far
HMY pulled back to 7.20 area off the 8 area creek above. Be nice to see the supply absorbed and move higher back to creeks areas...

Let's hope so. Glad to see Bearvest's constructive outlook on silver holding up so far. Would like to have one of those days where the lid gets blown off on the silver price.

dharma .. yes, I posted the article, and I think what you say is possible. This PM owning activity is so brutal to my nerves at times that I too do as TFH suggests, I buy only NA reserve miners. That said, I hold quite a bit of HL and they of course do have S. American exposure.

Wish I could be of more help, but man ... at times I think I'm doing good just hanging on and not selling the whole ball of wax and waiting things out.

regards

WTZ moves off 9 area creek...

SSRI building cause above the 11.50 area creek

silver between 7.40 to 7.60 building cause for a move

Just bought WTZ, 8.80 area support.

hourly divergences on xau holding so far. waiting to see if they hold, if they do i will start buying. can someone please give me n.american names of miners. tia. about 50% long and waiting to scale into the rest. dharma

take a look at www.infomine.com

they sold it.. weak reaction.... another day... sorry

so far SSRI has held the 11.50 area creek
so 13 above and 11.50 below...

man, we need more demand

XAU:

Here's the hourly and my best guess at the count.

I really can't see any divergences here in trend or momentum.

Except for Stochastics, the other trend, momentum, and Dover Sole indicators are hovering just above sell signals on the daily chart.

Because Stockcharts.com doesn't provide volume, I keep track of o.b.v. for all 15 HUI components. There was positive divergence today. Carver's volume oscillator is in a bullish trend.

If this is a B-wave pullback, a 50% retracement is as good as any.

PAAS:

If we rally out of this flag---and time is running out--target is $16.25.

bearvest,

I would like to learn more about Elliot Waves. Could you recommend a good book (or a few books)? Since I am an engineer, I should not have too many problems even if the book (or books) is/are fairly technical.
I also want to take this opportunity to thank you again for all the excellent analysis you present on this board.
Many thanks!

OldMan

Not that its going to make any difference in trading, but some watch currencies.. like the Euro and so I took a peak at the swiss franc. I drew a reverse trend line across the tops of the last three peaks where supply came in and made it parallel. I also have another trendline inside the parallel channel at the demand side. It looks to be in an area of horizontal support so this is an area to watch - if it lends any support to the notion that the swiss and gold are correlated. In that case I think gold is doing better at the moment.

The Debt To the Penny
Current Amount

06/07/2005 $7,795,629,856,549.21


09/30/1987 $2,350,276,890,953.00



..... link

Hey Gold Bulls. I'm still looking to be a buyer 175-180 HUI. If you don't mind the political risk HMY and DROOY could be big winners going forward. Rand in Gold is cooking to the upside. My favorite cheap specs. for a move higher are CDE and GSS. Check this one out.

Tommorrow the trade deficit comes out. It can't be good. I suspect it will mark a reversal of fortune in the buck for awhile.
I wonder if the miners will give us a hint later in the day - looking for a down open, maybe to TFH's target area, then we see.

so far hit the 50% retracement! 84.2 on the xau and hourly divergences still in place. macd all showing divergences. think we are very close to the lows. waiting for the market to turn.
bv, why an A and not a 1. tia dharma

ok... Silver july retested weekly creek area at 7.25...

SSRI still holding 11.50 area well
WTZ broke before the fact.... must be a front runner for silver....hmmm
now responding a tad

silver trading range weekly is 6.86 to 7.63 and we did a half way pullback inside it...

Yep, reversal higher seems forthcoming. I went on margin (something I never do) for a trade with tight stops.

At the risk of completely jinxing the sector and any chance of a move up, here it is.

2K - SSRI @ 11.60
4K - CDE @ 3.15
3K HL @ 4.41

Let's see what the day brings.

I was just slightly early, this morning wouldve been better, but now up on it.

got an hourly buy signal on the xau, will finish my shopping manana morning. dharma

At this juncture it is safe to be long with a stop two day close under 175 HUI. Nice action in CDE. 3.17 is the 50% retrace of 2.70-3.63. Never closed it under there. 7.20 is the 50 of 6.70-7.65 in Silver and the breakout in my book. But what do I know? Today was also 7 days from the June 2nd High. Lots of time turns around here. Buy the pullback.

O.M.

Start right here:
http://www.elliott-wave-theory.com/elliott2.html

The best trader's book is Steven Poser's " Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably".

Prechter's " Elliott Wave Principle" is the bible. I just finished Prechter's " The Major Works of R. N. Elliott " and really enjoyed it.

As I say, learn the rules and pattern detection on the above website, and then buy the books. Leaping into Prechter's book without some advance knowledge will overwhelm. I bought the book in 1981 and it remained on my shelf unread for 20 years.

Hope this helps.

Silver and PAAS;

Another day and nothing has changed except that silver backtested (and virtually every breakout will backtest). So far the backtest held.

PAAS bounced from just above its 50% fib level.

Still constructive.

Good point. I suppose the proper labelling would be " A or 1".

I guess the "A" label was my unconscious bias to the corrective.

Yep. Pullbacks were light volume pretty much across the board. It seems that we might get at least a pretty good rally or at best an explosion. I'm thinking it starts to really heat up tommorrow.

Call it cautiously optimistic.

GOLD:

I hate to post a gold count. Everyone and his or her kid brother has a favoured count based on the musings of his or her favourite Guru.

I'm not an Elliott purist. I look to vanilla t.a. to help with patterns and I especially watch MACD to ensure that I've got the trend right. The precise count is never as important as getting the direction right.

The chart below is GOLD.

There's no dispute that the high occurred in December, 2004.

Likewise, there can be no dispute Gold impulsed down in 5 waves into the February lows. Impulses set the trend. They rarely live alone. Rather, they travel in pairs. With only one exception, not relevent here, you know that a correction will follow and another impuse down will occur--as either wave c or wave 3.

In other words, taking out the February lows is a given. Maybe next fall.

After an impuse down an abc correction occurs. It's either a "B" wave or wave 2.

No matter what, the abc requires an impulse, a corrective and an impulse.

The rally off the February lows looks impulsive. MACD says it's 3 waves. If so, it's an A wave and not wave 1.

There's a clear 3 wave decline from March to May. Very importantly, it was overlapped in June. It cannot be the bearish 3rd wave down, because wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1. The May lows must be labelled as c of B. By the way, a little bit of positive divergence on MACD helps--but it wasn't the double divergence that I want to see for a powerful reversal.

I think we've seen the wave B bottom in gold. I believe we've seen wave 1 of C and we're correcting in wave 2. This long term count and all the effort that went into it will be decidedly wrong--and no doubt about it-- if we breach 412.88. That's just the discipline of Elliott--(did I say I'm not an Elliott purist above?)

Once that correction completes, wave 3 should carry us much higher--but only to the upper blue channel line which should limit wave C's advance. It's the continuing measure of where c=a.

This does not preclude new highs on the HUI and XAU, which I fully expect.

Yes, this helps.
Many thanks!

OldMan

I think your blindfolded friend bought goog already