Yellow bellies, yellow lights, yellow snow... or just mellow yellow...

On Friday looking at the HUI chart it appears with a narrower range and not closing high on the day the demand was a tad off.. and the demand that did exist didn't get absorbed higher...hmmm

If supply comes in next week.... be ready..

Gold:

Sentiment:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...a0&refer=europe

The counts on Gold and NEM are out of synch:

.....grinchie sentiment:

[attachmentid=46938]


.....swissy chart (which I am too lazy to post).....has me all choked up......

Saw that last night and always wondered if the traders they interviewed were specs or commercials.

It is the most bizarre thing to see gold and the $ up at the same time, I'm having to deprogram my expectations every time I see the $ up. What a great feeling.

Didn't realize that GG was on the verge of a new 52 wk high.

I'm wondering if I need any other stocks beside GG, GRS, and KRY.

Looks like the (hopefully) short term correction is here. Might get nasty for silver. I'll be looking to pick up some stuff around HUI 195 and XAU 90.

Don't want to see silver go below that $6.80 level. Don't really want to see it go below $7.25, but that's probably a given.

I think the correction is here Sold WTZ and some SSRI, .50 a share gains on those shares. Might also sell a little GSS.

in past times, there was a delayed correlation oil - gold. so far i dont see that happening. crude is over 59. one would think that oil as an inflation barometer would ultimately cause higher prices in gold as an inflation hedge. something to watch.
fridays doji signaled the start of the correction. i am lookin for 86.06 and 84.24 as the 50% and .618 correction to hold. dharma

Be still my heart.

sold some gss/bgo/drooy today and some ego the other day. still holding bulk however. will be quick to buy back...presumably at a lower price, haha

Well, I sold some GSS at 3.14, and some more SSRI as it broke 12. Ready to buy a pullback now.

Tomorrow is the first day of Summer and a Natural turn date. Does anyone think we get a sharp two day break into a bottom in the miners here?

What if it was just marking a top? It can be a day off right?

I sold about 40% of my positions today, mostly early in the day when they were still barely down, or in WTZ case, still up.

Yes it could have been a bit early. This may go lower than most expect.

Oil:Gold

Oil:Silver

Newmont Sees $525 Gold by January
The price of gold should rise to $525 an ounce by the start of 2006, a top executive of gold giant Newmont Mining said.

Pierre Lassonde, president of the world's largest gold mining company, cited an expected decline in the US dollar by another 15% against a basket of currencies, world economic growth strong enough to keep physical demand buoyant and a continuing gradual decline in gold output.

Speaking at the Reuters Mining Summit, Lassonde said consumer and investor demand for gold is tenacious at current prices and world production is in a decline, which should hoist gold out of a current ''$400 to $475 range''.

''When you add it up, we think you can see gold at $525 by Jan 2006,'' he said to reporters at Reuters offices in New York.

''The physical market is very strong at these prices. There is enormous demand,'' Lassonde said.

Investors are buying gold as well, in favor over the euro and the dollar, he added, with bullion making its way into vaults in Switzerland and heading into the Middle East, India, China and Turkey.

''Those are the big markets right now,'' said Lassonde.

Newmont expects gold production to fall by 0,5% to 1% this year and next, while the company's own output growth, as the leading worldwide producer, should be 4% to 5% over next three years, the executive said.

Spot gold changed hands at about $424 an ounce at midday Thursday, down 4% since the start of the year.

A dip below $425 in the last month was primarily due to slowing demand for jewelry from India after the busy March-to-May wedding season and decreased buying by Italian jewelers before summer holidays begin in July, he said.

Still, the market has recovered from repeated attempts to press it below $415 because of solid demand, said Lassonde.

Bullion hit a 16-year high of $456.75 last December on the back of a falling dollar, which tends to make the US currency-priced metal cheaper for non-US investors.

''We believe that the dollar trade-weighted index has another leg down to go, another 15%, mostly against the Asian currencies. We think we're going to see a great deal of that happening in the next nine months.

''If we see a revaluation of the (Chinese yuan), I would think gold sales would increase even more substantially'' throughout Asia, Lassonde said.

June 20,2005

Yeah, it wouldnt surprise me if we retrace most of the rally from 165 to 204.

There is that gap 82-83 XAU which I would like to see filled.

175-180 would be a nice support area to buy back. Much higher would not suit my risk tolerance. I want to see lower volume on balance on this pullback. If Silver wasn't acting so poorly of late I wouldn't really be surprised to see this market rocket on just a two or thre day pullback.

Yes. I think 180 would be great. I'm kindof thinking we see 6.80 silver again.

That was my initial thought but as you said, the price of silver and the way it is acting - especially with the commercials pretty short - might portend a deeper pullback.

That being said, if we get a hard down in the a.m. I will try and trade it. SSRI and CDE come to mind.

NEM:

Watching 38.85. It's the extreme of wave A or 1. If overlapped, the rally from mid-May must count as an abc, ultimately.

This does not mean that the stock must continue down after the overlap.

A look at the intra-day chart shows only 3 waves up in wave C or 3. It could overlap and then rally up to leave the C wave as an impulse. And, of course, create a whipsaw.

Inverse Head and Shoulders:

A lot of the miners had inverse head and shoulders patterns last week. I pointed it out in NEM.

The apparent failure of this pattern may be morphing into a cup and handle.

PDG seems to fit the mold. It's on my watchlist.

FNX.TO

If you're inclined to short something:

WhoHe? Pullback Target 190.4-193.1
Zowie Pullback Target 87.5 - 89.0
Silver 6.91 - 7.06
Gold 350 Zeros

Canadians introduce a bill to block takeovers..

http://www.afxpress.com/about488/index.php...0&story=1223083

Canadian govt bill aims to bloc foreign takeovers; seen aimed at China

OTTAWA (AFX) - Canada's government introduced a bill Monday that would allow it to block foreign takeovers of local companies, both large and small, purportedly for national security reasons.

The proposed amendments to the Investment Canada Act would allow the government to nix takeovers worth less than 250 mln cad (200 mmln usd), the current lowest level at which it can intervene.

It comes only days after allegations surfaced of Chinese corporate espionage in this country and less than one year after a failed takeover bid by the state-controlled China Minmetals Corp for Canadian mining behemoth Noranda Inc, which first sparked concern about foreign ownership rules.

Pundits have suggested the legislation is aimed at stemming China's growing appetite for Canadian resources, but government officials denied any connection and insist Canada does not wish to curtail foreign investment.

"There's no link. We're trying to get our laws in line with other G8 countries," said Christiane Fox, a spokesperson for Industry Minister David Emerson. "The problem right now is that we don't have the ability, as other countries do, to review or prevent foreign investment that might compromise national security."

Last week, opposition lawmakers pressed the government to crack down on alleged Chinese espionage during the House of Commons question period.

"China has a huge interest in owning our natural resources and dominating our economy. Our country is losing billions (of dollars) through economic espionage," Deputy Conservative Leader Peter Mackay said, repeating accusations made by two former Chinese officials who defected to Australia.

Former Chinese diplomat Chen Yonglin and policeman Hao Fengjun claimed their government had some 1,000 spies in Canada.

Chen abandoned his post as first secretary at the Chinese consulate-general in Sydney last month while Hao defected in February.

Chinese officials in Canada denied the allegations.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

2 potential H&S (no volume): in red, a BD with backtest ; in green, the smaller inverse H& S ...

Here are the volumes: neither very convincing ...

I see NG is doing a $50 million bought financing deal. I don't own it, but might after the inevitable beating it will take now.

It 's a shame these guys can't stick it out a little longer before giving away the farm.

Put in an order for 4K SSRI at $11.60. We'll see.

tfh, yes, unless i am mistaken today is the solctice. Gann thought the seasonal changes represented changes in market direction. on an hourly basis, the xau/hui are Dover Sole. i am expecting lower #s, BUT if we make divergences and have 3 waves down, the correction may be finished. watching. dharma

I would advise all very very strongly not to short FNX. If you wish to short a miner I think you could find richer pickings elsewhere. Anyway, up to you.

I don't have the skills or tools or abilities to to defend my statement, but it seems to me that this might be a good time for the powers that be to take advantage of having trained the Gold bugs so well...

Hadjin you could very well be right! using myself as a contrary indicator means i should buy back my gss/bgo sooner rather than later. both down some from where i sold. ego is down from where i sold also (only sold small/trading amount) - it had a beauty of a day yesturday, lol.

xau in the process of filling its gap. fill it and turn back down? silvah - nice recovery! watching closely.

We might be entering another one of those times where every dip must be bought. I'm really surprised that the metals are holding up so well. I'm also wondering if demand might be strong enough to keep the commercials in check.

Any clue on whats going on? This reversal makes me want to buy back what I sold yesterday, lol. I could currently do so at a small gain.

There is a fibo @ 196 HUI, a gap (now filled) @ 194, and an ascending support (now) @ 190, HUI's RSI broke out, and Gold broke out.

Is there any pressing reason why I shouldnt go buy NG right now?

I did it, long NG at 7.98, first time I've ever owned it...

Not that strong a rally really. Advancers outpacing decliners 53 to 43. Had a look at what was up and what was down. On the upside was all the familiar names EGO, GG, HL, CDE, GSS etc. On the downside micros, megas and low volumes. Guess it's yesterday's sellers of liquid trading stocks becoming today's buyers. Not so much weak hands to strong hands as left hands to right back into hands.
Unfortunately my collection of parrot droppings hopelessly underperforming the indices again. Must remember for next time, quality first then move into risk.

bought ng @7.96 right here. i like this company, operates only in n.america. issuing warrants today will dilute the shares, but i feel this is reflected in todays haircut! dharma

2 cents lower than me

Small position on the close today in PMPIX. A move under today's lows would be at least short term bearish a close under would signal a much bigger correction. Might just consolidate around here for a few days 195-200 HUI.

Agree. Not really a strong rally, nevertheless, it did reverse and close higher and that seems like a positive change.

There was every opportunity to really trash the physical and it didn't happen, either they are sucking guys like me in or???

I agree with you guys about NG as a company, but whenever one of the miners does a deal like this the stock seems to lag for awhile. At least it is a quality stock, unlike the parrot droppings. I've done so much better with the good stuff than the penny stocks, i.e. GBN, NXG, QEE etc. When this stuff does finally get pulled along for the ride, my good stuff will have already doubled.

If I'm going to hold, I want to be holding more GG, KRY and GRS.

Everyone needs to drop whatevcer youre doing and go read Ike Iossif's most recent article on the gold stocks:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

... who is every bit as readable as Proust. Yes, by all means run don't walk to read this article but with all due respect you may come away groggy and reeling like a drunkenmaster. I know I was.

Yes I agree that it was a good recovery. Since everyone (it would seem) expected a good old takedown it didn't happen. Maybe since everyone is now expecting the ST low is in, it isn't. Just musing.

Eventually we closed with advancers beating decliners 50 to 43, BP% down a couple of % while BuLT up a couple. No NuWrecks. Most recent NuWreck ADGD looking like it might make a stand and move higher.

CDY is tanking. Is this the Peru protest thing? Is this ADGD's problem as well? Are there others? Is Peru another South Africa or is this just a tempest in a teapot? Well they say buy when there is blood in the street.

The stocks vs bonds thing:

Thor150 +15.0%
UNWPX +15.1%
PMPIX +16.8%

Throw a blanket over them at this point. If this rally is for real, then I think the Thor150 will eventually finish up comfortably on top.

Eventually my bat gauno mine finished up between the Zow and Hooey performance. Sold 1 position (GSS) reducing my exposure to 103.5%. My strategy going forward is a little less complicated than Ike's but I wouldn't bore you with the details.

I will say what I'd like to see ST and that is a rally into early July followed by a pullback to July 9/10 time then a move to higher highs as per a one month cycle. Rinse and repeat.

I don't think we go much higher than today's highs, then drop to about 150
too many similarities to the march 2005 high
http://tinyurl.com/8fh48

Sal has a good picture of the possible move
http://www.zsvideo.com/~princ1/JJH.ht1.jpg

Well, goldmasters...

stocks are being absorbed at the moment so it wasn't a surprise to see gold shares absorbed also...

even when crude hits its old high... man.. we must be in a period when money grows on trees...

waiting for the supply to show up... but could be just like the last bull run when stocks just went up and up... not sure...but I smell a little rat out there....not sure where my trap is though..

I guess you did see silver find some support in the 7.20 area..

at least WTZ responded ...