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ThorAss
I come not to praise the cartel but to bury them.

Starting my temporary tenure early.

Of Cycles and Elliott Waves:

If you go to Dr. Au's Pubic Fart Lisp you will find at the top 6 charts which I have recently submitted to the good doctor. They are my weak attempts at Elliott Wave ANALysis. My first attempt was POG and now my recent botchulism of the Hooey. The other 4 I've yet to do: POS, Zow, NEM, and USERX.

Hooeyism: Seemed easier to do then the POG. Except for one 1/4 overlap of a minor 12345 I think I have a pretty clear 5 wave count to the end '04 high. This may also have been the high for the eight year cycle. If the last year and a half are anything to go by then the down part of the 8 year cycle looks to be a long drawn out flat affair. And since the '03 high the analysis has become more subjective. I see 3 possibilities and regardless of the fear of sounding like Ike I will list them.

1. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in 3 of 1 down and Prechter is MY Daddy.
(Not Annotated)
Don't really like this one. It would have us completing 2 up in Nov '04 and put us in the big 3 slide which would take out the 163 low big time. The problem to me is that if we did a minor 123 down to the May low then the minor 4 up (just completed/still active?) should not have overlapped the minor wave 1 Feb '05 low at about 195.

2. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in C of 2 (12345up) - Extended Flat
(Not Annotated)
This one is better. Coming off the Nov '04 high we have embarked on an extended flat of ABCs. Main corrective wave A completed at May '04 low and main corrective wave B completed at Nov '04 high. If the '03 high was just wave 1 of a Super Cycle (circa 20 year) then a forthcoming wave C (lower than 163) would signal the completion of Super Wave 2 (likely) and the start of the Super Wave 3 which would be jolly profitabull. Again, I don't like the way the minor cycles are playing out and figure we should have made a lower low when we had the chance in May '05 to complete C of 2 but didn't.

3. 8 Year Cycle is Bogart - We are in 3 of 3 Up - Sinclair is My Daddy.
(Annotated)
As per chart, we completed super cycle wave 1 in Nov '03 then Super Cycle Wave 2 completed in May '04 with a 38.2% Fib retracement and a retest a year later giving us our 12 punch in the process. We have now begun our long heralded 3 of 3 and still nobody believes it.

Anyway I like Option 3 - a 3 of 3 and we Go to Da Moon Alice but that's just me. Would love to hear from all you Idiot Wavers and other assorted GoldKooks your opinions on all of this. Next I will start on the other charts.

In a couple of hours I'm off to Singers (Singapore) to get a Visa and try to buy an Elliott book or 2 and totally give myself over to the dark side of TA.

TA
ThorAss
... and Happy Fourth of Julie all you Merkins everywhere. Wes incerely hope for a brighter future for all.

...and now only 10 days to Bastille Day ThorAss' call for the 2 low and the start of a 3 of 3 of 3.

TA

traderfromhell
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 3 2005, 03:04 PM)
I come not to praise the cartel but to bury them.

Starting my temporary tenure early.

Of Cycles and Elliott Waves:

If you go to Dr. Au's Pubic Fart Lisp you will find at the top 6 charts which I have recently submitted to the good doctor. They are my weak attempts at Elliott Wave ANALysis. My first attempt was POG and now my recent botchulism of the Hooey. The other 4 I've yet to do: POS, Zow, NEM, and USERX.

Hooeyism: Seemed easier to do then the POG. Except for one 1/4 overlap of a minor 12345 I think I have a pretty clear 5 wave count to the end '04 high. This may also have been the high for the eight year cycle. If the last year and a half are anything to go by then the down part of the 8 year cycle looks to be a long drawn out flat affair. And since the '03 high the analysis has become more subjective. I see 3 possibilities and regardless of the fear of sounding like Ike I will list them.

1. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in 3 of 1 down and Prechter is MY Daddy.
(Not Annotated)
Don't really like this one. It would have us completing 2 up in Nov '04 and put us in the big 3 slide which would take out the 163 low big time. The problem to me is that if we did a minor 123 down to the May low then the minor 4 up (just completed/still active?) should not have overlapped the minor wave 1 Feb '05 low at about 195.

2. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in C of 2 (12345up) - Extended Flat
(Not Annotated)
This one is better. Coming off the Nov '04 high we have embarked on an extended flat of ABCs. Main corrective wave A completed at May '04 low and main corrective wave B completed at Nov '04 high. If the '03 high was just wave 1 of a Super Cycle (circa 20 year) then a forthcoming wave C (lower than 163) would signal the completion of Super Wave 2 (likely) and the start of the Super Wave 3 which would be jolly profitabull. Again, I don't like the way the minor cycles are playing out and figure we should have made a lower low when we had the chance in May '05 to complete C of 2 but didn't.

3. 8 Year Cycle is Bogart - We are in 3 of 3 Up - Sinclair is My Daddy.
(Annotated)
As per chart,  we completed super cycle wave 1 in Nov '03 then Super Cycle Wave 2 completed in May '04 with a 38.2% Fib retracement and a retest a year later giving us our 12 punch in the process. We have now begun our long heralded 3 of 3 and still nobody believes it.

Anyway I like Option 3 - a 3 of 3 and we Go to Da Moon Alice but that's just me. Would love to hear from all you Idiot Wavers and other assorted GoldKooks your opinions on all of this. Next I will start on the other charts.

In a couple of hours I'm off to Singers (Singapore) to get a Visa and try to buy an Elliott book or 2 and totally give myself over to the dark side of TA.

TA
*



Thor I think more people than you think are positioned for and believe we go to the moon now. Now as before my main concern remains that we all KNOW the metals are going higher longer term. We all can't be right.
bearvest
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 3 2005, 04:01 PM)
... and Happy Fourth of Julie all you Merkins everywhere. Wes incerely hope for a brighter future for all.

...and now only 10 days to Bastille Day ThorAss' call for the 2 low and the start of a 3 of 3 of 3.

TA
*



HUI:

Thor-- hope this helps. Use MACD to get the longer count in impulses and think that it will often peak at wave 3 or iii of 3, absent a 5th wave extension. Often, you can see them coming. ABC's are tougher, as the peak in bearishness is at the third wave on MACD.

The first chart is my long count on HUI. I only see 3 waves up. Same as the long XAU count, except it's clearly an ABC. Long term, we're in no-person's land (knowing that you're concerned with correctness).

The second chart tries to focus on the daily count. There's no doubt that it's an abc down off the 2003 highs. And a cursory glance might lead one to believe that wave 4 completed.

The problem is the recent overlap shown on the daily chart. It means that we are not impulsing up. Specifically, it means that we are not in wave iii, but rather, somewhere in wave c.

What is the count when a 3 wave move is followed by a 3 wave move of one lesser degree of trend? Well, it's that whacky "X" wave. If it's an X, look for another abc down at a higher degree of trend.
FeedFool
Click here


We should find out soon if there is going to be B wave. If one doesn’t see B wave then it should be bullish.

ThorAss
Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. tongue.gif
A couple of questions, though.

Bear,

Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00.

All,

Actually that was it for questions. (This geyboard is krap.) Interesting muse more like it. Why the gold stocks lead. It's like this: First a rhetorical question. Why do people buy gold? To protect themselves from inflation (falling fiat) at a time when return from other assets are not worth the risk. Why buy gold stocks? When there is an expectation of rising profitability which is usually the result of an increasing commodity price. Why do gold stocks sell off while gold is still rising? The risk of gold stocks rising further is now greater than the risk in holding gold ie the end, one way or the other, is nigh. So why sell gold and buy gold stocks? Ones appetite for risk has increased.
Ageka
Euro fell like a brick today
traderfromhell
Think you're confused? Read Kern's latest at 321 Gold. ohmy.gif laugh.gif
Old Habits
QUOTE(traderfromhell @ Jul 4 2005, 09:30 PM)
Think you're confused? Read Kern's latest at 321 Gold. ohmy.gif  laugh.gif
*



ohmy.gif is right. Does he have a serious following?

Ph D in what? Minutia?

He may have the part about Friday being bullish for the stocks, if that is what he said. blink.gif
bearvest
[quote=ThorAss,Jul 4 2005, 03:24 AM]
Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. tongue.gif
A couple of questions, though.

Bear,

Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00.
_________________________________________________________________

Thor-

Because I made a mistake.

I carelessly went back to a chart I'd drawn several months ago to illustrate how MACD is strongest in wave 3 or 3 of 3.

Here's what it looked like. I agree now that is more like 5 waves to the December 2003 highs. The duration of the correction since then is more like a wave 2 than a mere 4th wave of a larger wave 3.
ThorAss
[quote=bearvest,Jul 5 2005, 10:41 AM]
[quote=ThorAss,Jul 4 2005, 03:24 AM]
Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. tongue.gif
A couple of questions, though.

Bear,

Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00.
_________________________________________________________________

Thor-

Because I made a mistake.

I carelessly went back to a chart I'd drawn several months ago to illustrate how MACD is strongest in wave 3 or 3 of 3.

Here's what it looked like. I agree now that is more like 5 waves to the December 2003 highs. The duration of the correction since then is more like a wave 2 than a mere 4th wave of a larger wave 3.
*

[/quote]

Thanks for the Claretfication.
Charmin
QUOTE(Ageka @ Jul 4 2005, 05:00 PM)
Euro fell like a brick today
*



How's the metal's reacting? like silver... I think the thing that comes to mind is the discussion last week... high open interest on silver and breaking though the weekly/monthly support trendline...hmmmm
Ageka
QUOTE(Charmin @ Jul 5 2005, 02:03 AM)
QUOTE(Ageka @ Jul 4 2005, 05:00 PM)
Euro fell like a brick today
*



How's the metal's reacting? like silver... I think the thing that comes to mind is the discussion last week... high open interest on silver and breaking though the weekly/monthly support trendline...hmmmm
*



Euro down gold up
Gold went up for the day but since the 65 ema is too far away it is still correcting
Ageka
Euro dollar

Charmin
silver up gold down......bullish spread
Hadjin
Gold down $3.10.... When will it end ?

Remind me of that song ... "Sometimes I feel like I've been tied to the whipping post, tied to the whipping post, oh Lord I feel like I'm dying ..."
Ageka
QUOTE(Hadjin @ Jul 5 2005, 08:30 AM)
Gold down $3.10....  When will it end ?

Remind me of that song ...  "Sometimes I feel like I've been tied to the whipping post, tied to the whipping post, oh Lord I feel like I'm dying  ..."
*



Yes and for once it is not in the dollar euro rate which is virtually unchanged at the moment

On the upside I got myself a series of philharmonikers at 1.5 % over melt which is not bad
AgentSmith
bought CBJ back at 2.10
Old Habits
QUOTE(Hadjin @ Jul 5 2005, 08:30 AM)
Gold down $3.10....  When will it end ?

Remind me of that song ...  "Sometimes I feel like I've been tied to the whipping post, tied to the whipping post, oh Lord I feel like I'm dying  ..."
*



At least there is no confusion, the miners are no longer diverging from the metals. dry.gif
Old Habits
I'm thinking it's about time for uncle buck and silver to do an about face.

Instead of the dire warnings about the collapse in silver prices, does anyone think that silver might just be at the lower end of its' trading range, $6.80 - $7.60?

Crapvision is sure trying its' best to generate some panic selling in PDG because of the strike. One of their sponsors must need to accumulate.
Hadjin
Markets' only been open for 2 hours, but does it seem like the miners have decided to stop dropping for the day ?
Hadjin
I guess not.. bummer

QUOTE(Hadjin @ Jul 5 2005, 07:19 AM)
Markets' only been open for 2 hours, but  does it seem like the miners have decided to stop dropping for the day ?
*


ThorAss
I continue to transfer PMS shares from weak hands (mine) to strong hands (others). Am now down to 75% long. That leaves me with my remaining collection of henhouse floor covering. Will continue shrinking until I stop. Anyway there goes Friday's so-called Bullish late rally. Why believe the drop was bullshit and the rise was real? Just as easily the other way around or neither. Distribution has been pretty obvious for 2 weeks now, (well obvious now anyway.) I'm not saying we are going in the cellar although that is a possibility. Will be watching it.
ThorAss
ON THE hOOEY. It is trying to hold support here at Friday's low which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the rally from June 9 low.
Next support is 193.57 which is the 50% retracement and neckline (June 28 low).
Below is 190.78 or 61.8% retr or June 14 low and just below that is 190.23 which is the 38.2% retr off the May/June rally.
Below that is 185.5 the 50% and 180.8 the 61.8%. Below 180, it's back to 165 then probably on down.
ThorAss
Here's a list of PMS stocks which I think make the best traders right now;

Criteria:
1. Price: $1 to $10
2. Volume: 200,000+ per day average.
3. Range: In the last year MAX HIGH must be nearly twice MAX LOW or better.
4. US traded PMS stocks.

AUY
BGO
CBJ
CDE
GSS
HL
HMY
IVN
KRY
MNG
NG
NTO
NXG
SWC

I'm not rec any of these stocks per se either on a fundamental or technical basis. I own 2 of them at the moment. It would just seem to me that we don't appear to be ready to go to the moon and a bit of flexibility. liquidity and nimbleness may be required in here. Yet the possibility is still there for a big move up and if one is positioned one should be positioned in "the movers". The above list gives access to marginabulls, silvers, a PGM. a South African, and the usual suspects of household names.

ThorAss
Just like to point out that every single one of the abovementioned 14 stocks is down today.
Ander
QUOTE(Old Habits @ Jul 5 2005, 06:40 AM)
I'm thinking it's about time for uncle buck and silver to do an about face.

Instead of the dire warnings about the collapse in silver prices, does anyone think that silver might just be at the lower end of its' trading range, $6.80 - $7.60?
*



The dollar is very strong right now it seems. I dont know if its going to fall. Seems like its going to do a retrace of the entire decline... Maybe to 100?

But I dont think it matters, gold will rise anyway.

I think silver is right on the uptrendline at 6.80. Some people think its broken it, they arent drawing the line correctly. biggrin.gif
But if it falls through 6.80, then I think its broken it. But I think it wont fall any more.
traderfromhell
No follow through for either camp. Odds favor some kind of Dover Sole bounce in the metals from here. Silver has held so far. Sidelines are a good place to be right now. HUI holding 194-195 can be considered short term bullish but not worth the risk for me.
ThorAss
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
Ander
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 5 2005, 01:41 PM)
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
*



Really? I think this is the only useful forum I've come across (relating to the gold sector).
traderfromhell
QUOTE(Ander @ Jul 5 2005, 06:35 PM)
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 5 2005, 01:41 PM)
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
*



Really? I think this is the only useful forum I've come across (relating to the gold sector).
*



I'll miss Thor's postings but really how much is there to say about the metals and the miners? We know each others opinions. Every man for himself now I guess. biggrin.gif Hang in there Ander. If anyone needs a pep talk go listen to Frank Barbera on this week's Financial Sense with Puplava. Wildly bullish buy weakness. That's it. cool.gif
Ander
QUOTE(traderfromhell @ Jul 5 2005, 02:50 PM)
If anyone needs a pep talk go listen to Frank Barbera on this week's Financial Sense with Puplava. Wildly bullish buy weakness.
*



I did. biggrin.gif
plantigrade
Qusque Tandem ?
traderfromhell
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 5 2005, 05:41 PM)
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
*




Need bullspray and hip boots to make that trip man. Never seen a more perma-bullish site in the world. They got religion boy and that's muy dangerous for your financial health. ohmy.gif
Hadjin
Silver Wheaton, SLW, starts trading tomorrow on the Amex..
Old Habits
Yeah, we all pretty much know eachothers' views and there's only a few of us any way.
Between this site and gold-eagle there's probably only 20 of us that buy gold stocks. sad.gif

I'm hoping that $6.80 holds up on the silver price.

I'm praying that today wasn't the start of another one of those "3 legs down" declines that the HUI charts are tatooed with, but it just seems like they always come ready or not.

Bummer.
Old Habits
One more thing

Just how the F*@k is the CRB up 2% and the metals down?

Unbelieveable.
Charmin
remember the euro is a a support/ice area and the dialy is Dover Sole..

guess where that puts uncle buck..

anyway, watching for a "possible rally" in the euro

silver can join in if it wants... I think the trendline held so far...
Charmin
euro was under discussion tonight.... that's why I know....otherwise I'd be in the corner with a dunce hat on..

charts
http://www.ltg-trading.com/20050705.pdf
Charmin
Ike on HUI
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm
Ander
QUOTE(Hadjin @ Jul 5 2005, 06:44 PM)
Silver Wheaton, SLW,  starts trading tomorrow on the Amex..
*



I intend to buy it when both:

A) it is down, and
B ) I can get enough money. wink.gif



Also, SSRI just released that they made a new silver discovery at Pitarilla.
Ageka
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 5 2005, 04:41 PM)
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
*




I do not think that on gold eagle forum you would last long
I was banned twice with a grand total of 4 posts on the
two identities
Somebody rightely complained about all the flashing in their
face and somebody suggested putting an unfolded roadmap over
that half of the screen blink.gif So I posted the link to a free antiflash
program = Banned mad.gif
Second identity I asked why the charts by SMSC were no longer posted
turned out he was banned and I got banned for asking mad.gif

On a forum that democratic you can only hear allelujah lord of gold laugh.gif
Ageka
On the euro at close of european business
euro has not signed the dotted line yet
but pen is in hand

Ageka
[[/QUOTE]CONCLUSION

All the indicators are at the point where rallies either terminate or accelerate
[QUOTE]


http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
traderfromhell
QUOTE(Ageka @ Jul 6 2005, 03:36 AM)
QUOTE(ThorAss @ Jul 5 2005, 04:41 PM)
This forum is now officially pronouced dead.

Sorry, but the lack of participation makes this place pretty useless all things considered.

I'd go over to Gold-Eagle if the format wasn't so totally crappy.

Anyway I'll be around and may pop in from time to time.

TA
*




I do not think that on gold eagle forum you would last long
I was banned twice with a grand total of 4 posts on the
two identities
Somebody rightely complained about all the flashing in their
face and somebody suggested putting an unfolded roadmap over
that half of the screen blink.gif So I posted the link to a free antiflash
program = Banned mad.gif
Second identity I asked why the charts by SMSC were no longer posted
turned out he was banned and I got banned for asking mad.gif

On a forum that democratic you can only hear allelujah lord of gold laugh.gif
*



Thor -Lite already posts at the altar of GE. wink.gif OK. Gold up 2 bucks this morning. Possible bottom yesterday. That's 2 touches in the XAU at 90.60. Silver has held the trendline Gold is heavily Dover Sole as well. Most turns we have been witnessing have come in the first week of the month. Euro in Gold may just have needed to backtest the 350 breakout area. GSS looks strong above 2.90. Conservative traders not already long can re-enter on a close over HUI 205. Good luck. cool.gif
Ageka
Since I have my fill of Caffee Lattes
I stopped reading Gold Eagle last year
If I want to be entertained I go read and post on a
survivalist forum biggrin.gif
Also I like to answer all those questions about
goldcoins that are not gold smile.gif on american and german forums
Old Habits
Sy Harding mentions the 21 dma on the XAU as a buy point, which currently sits at 90.35. Close enough yesterday?

http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletter...ootix&referrer=

Old Habits
Anyone have any opinions on PAL, other than it has been acting like a piece of garbage. I'm not sure why the price of paladium has performed so poorly, but I'm wondering if PAL is worth a trade.

BTW - where is my personal hero Dharma? rolleyes.gif

Where is the master of trading Anjing Bau? smile.gif



Hadjin
"Where is ... ?"

Don't know, but this PAL owner is right here. I agree it acts like the red headed step child, but I'm partial to red heads..smile.gif

HL filed a shelf registration very recently for $250 mil. That sucks too, figures I own it; lot of it..
Charmin
Well, you might as well read the latest email I got....

"I'm Buying this Gold Dip!

Volume 6 - Issue 29 - Circulation 61,300

Dear Investor,
Ever since the Federal Reserve made its interest rate announcement gold has fallen 16 points! Some people are actually worried now about gold stocks, but if you'll remember last week I was looking for just such a pullback to use as a buying opportunity! We got it and I love it!

I just sent out my monthly newsletter available to WSW Basic members with two new gold buy recommendations. To access it you need to open up a risk-free membership by clicking here:

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/riskfreetrial.htm

If you go back and read last week's email you'll see that I told you that the seasonal pattern for gold is for gold to pullback in the middle of June and then bottom by the middle of July, and then rally into the end of the year. This pattern is repeating right before our eyes.

But something even more exciting is happening. When it comes to gold stock investing the number one rule that you need to know is that the action in the stocks leads the action in the metal. When gold stocks pullback while the metal goes up it is usually a sign of a top. We saw this happen back in last November and March.

Now we are seeing the opposite. Although gold stocks have been outperforming the metal since they bottomed in May, they have vastly outperformed on this recent drop in gold. On Friday when gold fell over 9 dollars the XAU gold stock index managed to close in the green. And today the XAU is up over 1% as I write this while gold is just sitting there!

The XAU is only is less than two points off its recent high while gold has fallen over 16 points. This is incredible relative strength. If gold stocks are holding up like this while gold is falling this hard what is going to happen when the gold starts to go up?

You got it, it's going to be a blastoff.

It means that now is the buying time for gold stocks. Gold fell to 421 yesterday and the XAU dipped down to 90.67 - still way above its 86-89 support zone. Think about it, gold has fallen this much and the XAU hasn't even hit support!

I think gold has likely bottomed, but let's argue for a second that it hasn't. How low will it go. 415 tops! Even a move like that won't bang the gold stocks up. Their downside risk is very minimal right now. That is because gold stocks are looking ahead at the run coming around the corner.

What is more, the XAU's pivot breakout point is 95. A close above that and it will be off to the races. I'll bet you that by the end of next week - at the latest - the XAU will be above 95 and chugging higher to almost everyone's surprise.

Everyone that is but you and me.

Minimal downside risk and unlimited upside. It's a no-brainer and that's why I took out my shopping list and bought.

You need a copy of my list. To get it all you need to do is take a risk-free trial membership to WallStreetWindow. This is the time you should take action.

Remember we have a risk-free trial. You have 30 days to decide if our service is for you or not. If you decide not to continue we will give you a full refund. You risk nothing. Just click here to begin today:

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/riskfreetrial.htm

The fun is only beginning!"

Mike Swanson

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