Last week I had the landscape littered with corpses and no one asked me who were the corpses. I assume everyone thought I meant us gold kooks or spec longs or bullion infestors and in a way I did. I did and I didn't. This week's title is The Flight to Safety and what will happen if you board the wrong plane at the wrong time.

The Stock Market - Flight of The Bull

The bulls think they have it made now. Forget the Dow, forget the S&P, forget the Nasdaq, forget growth stocks now it's all value stocks, mid-caps and small-caps. Bear Market? There's no stinking bear market. And the super-cyclicals (SOX) are coming back anyway. Oil has peaked, doesn't matter anyway as high oil price is bullish. All bullish all the time. Terror, war, famine all bullish. Conditioned to buy the dip. The Greenspan put. Inflation/deflation it's all bullish. Only one way this can end.

The Stock Market II - Flight of The Bear

Here is one plane which has already crash landed but somehow there were still many survivors and they continue to fly even though they should know by now that the Bear is not a creature of The Air. They will be right eventually but so few will survive the many crash landings before that the survivors will be the legends of the future.

The Almighty Dollar - Flight of The Fiat

Here is The Hindenberg Revisited. The Flight of the Dollar is a lighter than air craft held aloft by little more than hot air and could soon be the victim of rapid decompression. The passengers know the risks but see the risks as at least temporarily more favourable than other Fiat Air model crafts such as the Euro or the Yen. Should the Yawn ever reach active service people may want to test its airworthiness.

The Hedge Fund - Flight of The Hog

This is the believe that genius can save one from injury. GM showed that it can not as if LTCM hadn't proven that years ago. Doesn't matter how smart the pilot is if he's flying out of fuel in bad weather.

The Bond Market - Flight of The Debt

We seem them now streaming to the US long bonds taking the price skyward. This is truly a Flight to Safty, a flight to protect capital. Yet this flight is fraught with turbulence. The easy money is gone and capital could soon be chewed up when the 25 year bull market finally turns. This plane is very old and filled to overcapacity. Fuel is now very expensive and in short supply. I'm afraid the flight can not stay aloft much longer.

The Housing Market - The Land of Oz

Well outside of Oz (and Kansas) houses can not fly and I guess people will realize this only when they like the Wicked Witch of The East have one land on their heads.

All these people being so Safety Conscious. And you can hear the comments in the terminal. Stocks are the best investment in the long term, stick with value, buy the strong sectors, go with momentum, the next big thing, Dover Sole, good management, you can't go wrong, housing prices always go up .....

The PMS Express:

Anyway, this is why I go by train and it is leaving the station soon. Plenty of seats left and the tickets are so cheap they are a joke. No waiting in line at the station either, although you may get a shave and a haircut before the train pulls out. Get a silver ticket and go by coach, get a gold one and go first class. You might even treat yourself to the luxury of a platinum seat. Take the Express Miner and get where you're going at high speed or relax, sit back and enjoy the ride with Bullion milk run. It's all up to you. You will love the ride and especially the rhythm ---

KOO KOOK KOO KOOK WHoo WHoo!!!

Funny, I agree with everything you said Thor.

But mostly, I just think we're going higher in everything gold and silver.

Other than an occasional put option on an index, I don't even bother to short anymore except for the occasional scalp. The market is not allowed to fall for a sustained period of time for any reason. Liquidity is massive, there doesn't seem to be any logic in anything. A month ago silver was breaking out of a triangle to the upside, now it's bounced off the bottom of its' trading range. Charts are painted regularly to give the illusion of an implied direction.

I thought this article made alot of sense.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/droke070705.html

I suspect we break one way or the other next week, but I think we definitely move up in silver.

Feel free to throw this prediction in my face on Friday if I'm wrong.

Thanks OH. Hopefully we are both right.

Okay there are few givens in this world but one thing that has come along every year this millenium is the July spike down in PMS shares. This may be the spike to buy for those not already committed. Look at the charts. Every year from the middle to the end of July has held a little PMS weak hand shakeout. I would like to remind every one of this event and to be prepared for it. Don't let it catch you offside.
My guess is we are looking at a short shallow shock this year. We start out this week with a few low range but not encouraging days. Thursday July 14 is the smackdown and the Hooey drops more than 10 points closing near its LOD. Friday the 15th puts in the intraday low just above 185 but closes off the low. Then we go up and up and up.
If I'm wrong about this I'm going to hand in my Mahendra Decoder Ring and Ass for my money back.

TA

... sorry that should have been axe for my money back. Sorry!

SI

I posted the above link which I gleaned from that other PMS forum because it puts into words what I noticed during my extensive PMS stock review this weekend.
One thing I did was scan for all PMS shares from $1 to $10 and vol over 200000 shares per day average. Then I checked for which were bullish. Only 1 wasn't NXG. All the rest of the 22 stocks were green. This surprised me as I'm only showing gold stocks to be about 55% bullish. And these are the exact same stocks I've been saying to buy.
If we get the spike lower these will be the ones to buy but you'll have to be quick because I don't think they'll be on sale for long. Beyond maybe the juniors will jump even higher.

John trending123 is bearish on gold!!??

Of course! And he will be bearish until the rally has begun in earnest.

BEARVEST - Concerning your post:

"Although I'm inclined to think that the XAU may be "capped" in the short run, your chart and analysis is superb. Props to you, my friend.

If we break 95, it's a moonshot thereafter according to the P&F."
_______________________________________________________

Thank you for your comments & P&F chart - so far we have been "capped" as you predicted. We're definitely getting ready for a another big move here, and of course I'm leveraged for an "up move." HUI has narrowed to a coiled spring in the 194-204 range with tightening BBs.

The dollar is getting very toppy with manic 20,000 plus speculator net long positions and 22,000-plus commercial net short positions. Clock is ticking . . .

And then you read various reports such as Japan planning to reduce dollar holdings in forex reserves:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx2111385.html

TIANJIN, China, (AFX) - Japan hopes to rebalance its foreign exchange reserves with less US dollars when the dollar regains enough strength to withstand such a reform . . .

The Swiss Franc COTs as well as others also indicate a turn is due for the dollar.

A few Gold-Friendly Fun-For-Mentals Facts: Central banks outpacing their 500-ton Washington Accord Sales limit (Need to slow sales dramatically over the next several months), TIC falling below US Trade deficit numbers, Pressure on China to revalue the Yuan, Gold to new highs in major currencies, Oil/Gold ratio at historic highs, Explosion in debt, High derivitive risk to world debt markets, Strong and growing Asian gold demand (Indian monsoon season rainfall back to normal), Historical gold demand picks up in Aug/Sept, Falling world mining production, Bearish sentiment percentages, etc.

Charts Attached:

GOOBER OUT!@#$#%^&

GOLD and the DOLLAR:

This is an Elliottician's quagmire.

Both are in very short term 4's or 5's on the daily, but the count one subdivision above is totally at odds.

The Gold chart shows a clear 5 wave pattern down followed by an equally clear 3 wave correction. The action thereafter seems to be an impulse down, as expected.
So we could be in wave 3 or C, of one degree of higher trend than the red count. Either way, from an Elliott viewpoint, it's bearish.

The Dollar charts seem to indicate that the Dollar is peaking. There's little doubt to my mind that we're near the top of an ABC correction of real significance.

So the counts say, for the next few months, Dollar down and likely Gold down.

Go figure.

Dollar:

Here's the short term Dollar count. It seems that if I post 3 charts, they wind up out of order.

.. and who knows Bear your Elliottocity may be right. But merging that with the seasonality and cross-referencing other markets it seems more sensible to me to relabel the gold chart showing the first 5 wave move down as A and thus C was in May and we moved up to 1 in June and are correcting back to 2 in the mid to late July spike low. Then it's 3 of 3 here we come.

Well I just bought some more gold so I guess I overpaid.

Guess how much I paid!

WRONG!
It was 135,000 Indonesian Rupiah per Gram.

And while you're wondering what a Rupiah is worth consider the fact that I just told you. Then consider what the paper neatly folded in your pocket is worth. It is worth exactly how much gold it will buy.

So by this calculation the 100000 note in my billfold is worth 3/4 of a gram of gold.
For today anyway.

Joe F. Rocks:

I thought Joe's analysis was very good this Sunday.

http://news.goldseek.com/JoeFRocks/1121090400.php

I don't think his reliance on the COT as a near term indicator is always sound and his dabbling in Elliott reminds one of Pope's admonition about "... a little learning..."

http://www.bartleby.com/59/3/littlelearni.html

What scares me is NEM. He and I share the belief that NEM, the darling of the institutions, will lead.

Without NEM showing a leadership role and institutional support in any advance, I suspect the PMS have the potential to tank.

Thor:

Here's why, in my opinion. The total ovelap and the extent of the Fib retracement seem too extreme. I've also relied on Doc's analysis, as far a Gold is concerned, as I can't get volume oscillators and intra-day charts to look at minor subdivisions.

Your talents and experience are far too important to turn this board into a dialogue between us on Elliott. I'd be happy to respond to p-mails so we don't clutter up the board.

If you feel that a difference between us is important enough to be aired on this board, that's fine with me.

But I certainly don't want to distract you and the others who watch and contribute to this board from the tremendous analysis that you so willing share with us.

Your unflagging dedication to this board (and that of Charmin's, of course) has been an inspiration to me.

I'm happy to show you the way in my little universe. But, I have so much to learn from you.

Oh don't worry about that. I acquiesce to you on all things Elliott. I figured it was going to have something to do with overlaps. Just trying to get the Elliott count on board with everything else I see.
Let me try another tack: What could turn you bullish in the next 2 weeks short of a new high (recent) in the POG? The July spike low is so convincing I just can't ignore it. Of course if it doesn't happen like in previous summers it would leave one wondering if things have indeed turned for the worse.

One thing that helps me deal with the manipulation in the PMS market is to view the commercials in the same way I would view pirates, brigands, and coastal raiders. Here's why:

The raiders have limited resources but if they use their maximum force combined with the element of surprise against a weakened and unprepared foe they will win.
Raiders will attack in the early hours after a celebration feast while the guards are sleeping off too much mead. They will attack after the harvest is in and purses jangle with coin.
The commercials are no different. They wait until their foe have gorged themselves on longs then bounce the day before a holiday when their opponents are few. As far as I'm concerned the only thing lacking is the elephant of surprise. Heck, what surprise?

Would you guys please quit cluttering up this board? After all, you make up a full third of the posters.

I would like to see a new review of silver, especially after all the dire warnings of a pending collapse that were bandied about all over the internet.

Back up to the top of the trading range?

*Bear... I'm inspired by your attitude and style, you must be one hell of a Lawyer; and gentleman.

"...If you feel that a difference between us is important enough to be aired on this board, that's fine with me.

But I certainly don't want to distract you and the others who watch and contribute to this board from the tremendous analysis that you so willing share with us.

Your unflagging dedication to this board (and that of Charmin's, of course) has been an inspiration to me.

I'm happy to show you the way in my little universe. But, I have so much to learn from you..."


*Thor... Thats beautiful, simply beautiful; I love the visuals. Can't wait to see your analogy high jacked by one of the writers on the "professional" sites. You must have been quite an adventurous 13 year old kid; maybe you still are...

"... One thing that helps me deal with the manipulation in the PMS market is to view the commercials in the same way I would view pirates, brigands, and coastal raiders. Here's why:

The raiders have limited resources but if they use their maximum force combined with the element of surprise against a weakened and unprepared foe they will win.
Raiders will attack in the early hours after a celebration feast while the guards are sleeping off too much mead. They will attack after the harvest is in and purses jangle with coin.
The commercials are no different. They wait until their foe have gorged themselves on longs then bounce the day before a holiday when their opponents are few. As far as I'm concerned the only thing lacking is the elephant of surprise. Heck, what surprise? ..."

When I read this, MorAss said why is your face so red?? I just wrote about what I know about ... coastal raiding.

PS: I suspect I've been hijacked before.

Agree Hadj -
I have never seen someone told to eff off in such an eloquent and gentlemanly manner.

I'M KIDDING!!!!

Copper busting a nut here. There must be a war or skirmish about to happen somewhere.

Maybe time to revisit TGB?

Is that on ur radar almight Thor?

Maybe the HUI is going to take another stab at 204.

Watching NEM. Agree, it still has to show some leadership, although when things start to move in earnest there may be some additional leadership candidates like RGLD, GLG and the local favorite GG.

I forgot that when GG bought WHT, Ian Telfer of WHT became the new CEO. When this is all said and done I'm looking for a 5-10 bagger in GG, but ya gotta dream it first.

No but mostly because it's on my list of current holdings. Unfortunately.
My worst performer still down over 20%. Emphasize the strong stocks now. They will be the ones to lead the breakout. The weaker ones (juniors) will be sporadic and you'll need to be lucky.
ALMI,CDE,DROOY,SA,HMY,TRE
...many others.

Heaven help me .. I've started buying GBN again...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm embarrassed to say how much of that I have. It is the only stock that is red in my portfolio today.

If the HUI somehow manages to close right around here for the day, I think we're moving higher. Would really like to see a pick up in volume and a rally into the close.

.... "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.... I'm embarrassed to say how much of that I have. It is the only stock that is red in my portfolio today.

Sorry my friend, too late. Now we'll both be panhandling outside a Stanton 7/11...

Anyone seen that Rally Monkey ? Hope the Miners have more juice left.

This certainly is more fun than when the price goes down... Who said 204 HUI ? we be there and gone...

SSRI +5%

FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE I'M BACK IN OVERLONG.


The July 5th low matches well with a June low at about the same time. Too many bullish divergences to ignore. Guess we can go ahead with the spike low now.
Also picked up some more bullyun while all y'all was sleepin'.

Try as I might after what I've seen the past week or so in the sector is is getting very hard to make a good case for the bears. The shares held very well on the decline in the metals. A positive COT last Friday puts the ball in the bulls camp. I would not want to be short the miners here.

Teasin' us with some higher metal prices tonight, let's hope the ramp job holds up.

The miners are acting alot more like they did during 02-03. Leading the metals, every dip is bought, etc. Then again, this is the great sector of endless washouts. What we haven't seen yet is alot of participation of the smaller producers yet. I'd like to see more volume and the little guys join the fray.

Nonetheless, this is a welcome change from the last six months. Let's hope we get some real momentum.

Thor,

You may get a little help from the dollar.

Wave 5 of C may be in. If 5 was supposed to be an impulse, that marginal overlap may have been a signal that it's either:
A. over, or
B. a mini c wave is coming, that will exhaust the rally.

Let's enjoy the ride. We're there or only days away.

Thanks bear,

I spotted that nice action in the US$ (but missed the overlap of course). A guy posted a bullish EW count for Hooey anyway. No chart and I can't really picture it but maybe you can.



due your own due diligence??? WHATEVER!!

Guess who! Well I duecided to due some of my own due dueligence. And I'm happy to report I got some very encouraging news to impart. Being an Elliott Idiott I suggest you take what I write here with salt. I looked at many charts but the ones that stood out were:

$HUI:$GOLD
$HUI:$XEU
$HUI:$XAU
$SILVER

I looked at all of these from late '00 till now. Taking the last first it is obvious to me that with silver the top is still a long long long way from here in time and price. A nice rounded bottom followed by an amazing sequence of breakouts and pullbacks.
The other 3 are what really grabbed me. Divorced from the US$ bear market these charts show the real nature of the gold bull and where we are. Each completed a 5 wave move off the bottom ending in Dec '03/Jan '04. No surprise then after the long run up that we went into a long ABC sideways decline and reached our C low in May. That's 3 years up and 1 1/2 year pullback. And each pulled back to roughly 50% of their total moves.
Where are we now? On the big wave the May low completed both the ABC correction and Big Wave 2. To make a long story short we are in mini 3 of a small 3 of a big 3. And by the time wave 3 is complete sometime towards the end of the decade the Hooey and Gold could be trading at par.

The hardest thing for me to believe is that I've suffered through the last year and a half of the correction without selling.
I seem to remember one of the guru's talking about a pretty heavy pullback in the early/mid 70's bull market that lasted about the same amount of time.
I hope the train is finally leaving the station.

just back from bc. what a wonderful cosmopolitan place. beautiful. caught up on the thread last week and this week. i agree w/bear, the dolar correction looks over. the correction in the gold shares could be over, or it could last longer. however, if the dolar starts its decline, i would assume the metals would vault. no, i do not think there is much interest in gold/pms w/the public. not yet. not doing anything @this point just holding on. no margin. no debt. dharma

Guess it's time to put in one of those ugly candles on the Hooey to mark a ST top. Have so many of them that they are getting monotonous. And yet we press higher. Still the rally appears to be weakening not strengthening. Maybe we need the spike down to shake and bake. Support now right at the number (200). If we spike lower 191, 186 and 181 are the 3 Fibo destinations.

We have been turned back at exactly the point where we needed to push through. This would appear to be a very bad sign and not what I was expecting. Is it a fakeout shakeout or are the Bad News PMS bears right? We were at the banks of the Rubicon but we turned away.
Hmmm, tough call now.

In Ocean City, NJ since Saturday...not really my idea of a vacation but 'went along' with the crowd (13 of us).

I sold 5k DROOY yesterday at 1.04/5. The other 5k today at 1.08. .96 average on the 10k.

Looking for opportunities in my usual suspects: CBJ, BGO, GSS, EGO, DROOY.

I thought I'd do my panic selling here rather than at lower prices tomorrow. However, in the last few minutes they've managed to turn 'em back up. At this point I'm happy to be rotating out and will wait to see what develops. Need a BO now to get me interested but in the days to come other things may prove to be sufficient cause to get longer.

if we are still in the correction, i would expect to see 89.63 max. its a push and pull at this point between the bulls and bears. however, later this month i think things are going to get rosy for the pms. looking for $500+ for gold by the end of the year. once mid august rolls around the pms should start to really roll. dharma

euro per ounce nearly at 65 ema

The TSX Gold and HUI are diverging again. There is no doubt that a weakening Canadian gold price is to blame. The Loonie has gained against all major currencies over the last month despite US Dollar strength. I'm wondering if we get a South Africa tragedy here in Canada? If the Loonie can get to 83 cents on US Dollar strength where does it go when the US Dollar weakens?

We may just have to grind it out here for a couple more weeks. Op ex this week, might get a little clearer picture next week. I've been trading my margin positions like crazy the last two weeks, should get a call from the broker wondering what is up. Making some decent $$ for a change though.

Not a bad close EXCEPT that the dollar got plastered and gold and silver went nowhere, which leads me to believe that we might get slapped upside the head tommorrow on the "better than expected" deficit numbers.

Broads are looking tired to me. PM's who knows?

OH:

I have not posted here for a while. I just want you to know you are not the only one who are suffering in the last 1.5 years. Like you, I have not sold any significant position either.

By the way, it looks like a gold bug soon will become the head of SEC. I just hope that those who manipulating gold will be a little bit more careful now.



More here

Something like that is nice to see, thanks for posting it.

Ditto... Good digging.. Although once they get into the seats of real power; anything can happen. Witnesses Greenspam and his views on the importance of Gold. We'll see.

BTW, Rep. Chris Cox is from the area near Habits and myself.

Thanks again

This from His Emittence The feargreeddude:



... which is why I sold 80% of my position in Tuesday's session. Now I have to cheer for the dark side. At least temporarily. In my way of seeing things, yesterday's action significantly increased risk. Was it manipulation? To anyone posing that question or making that assertion, I would ask, "Were YOU buying at the top yesterday?" If we are building up strength for the move it stands to reason that we need a sharp sell-off so da boyz can get long. And they can get in line, hopefully right behind me. Remember, their only advantage is that they know what's going to happen!

Thanks Easy Al

Keep the posts coming.

Maybe the feargreed dude will be right, unfortunately it does feel that way. This sector seems like it is getting easy to read. Trading ranges everywhere.

Haven't Da Boyz had a chance to get long yet?

Regrettably, I still think we are on the dark side, despite the potential collapse in the Dollar. I also agree with your analysis about "da boyz". In this case it's the Commercials. They position PRIOR to and in the early stages of the move. Despite what Joe F. Rocks says, you cannot use the COT's as a short term indicator, though they are a good guage of what's likely just over the horizon.

My chart of HUI (and XAU has a totally different potential count) is very bearish.

The longer term count, in the first chart, shows an ABC down from the December highs. While a corrective pattern would, at first blush, be bullish, one must look to the follow-through.

It is plainly an abc pattern at one degree of smaller trend. This is almost always an X-wave. What usually follows is another ABC at one higher degree of trend. Moreover, the blue terminal count looks like a bearish rising wedge, ignoring any Elliott count and simply applying pure vanilla t.a.

The second chart looks at Elliott for the nasty wedgie. It is a C wave. It subdivides into 5 waves in a rising pattern. It fits the bill for an ending diagonal. Once the E-wave is hit, the index should collapse impulsively.

If that pattern plays out--- and there's no reason why it must due to the Dollar contradiction--- a much safer long entry lies ahead several weeks from now.

There is a lot more to it then meets the eye Mr. Bear. There is some decent accumulation going on which one may not be able to readily see from the Hooey alone. Also you didn't take me up on the E-wave of the ratio charts I mentioned which removes the US$ component. Also very very illuminating. I remain quite bullish and hopefully for all the right reasons. I just see a shakeout which will be a buy. Don't want to miss the train however.

The Dollar isn't done longer term fellas. Just a temporary top. I would look for support 85-86 in the DX then on to higher highs. HUI 194 goes and I would stand aside for a bit. Until then I give the bull the benefit of the doubt. HUI 203-208-210 is serious resistance.

The proof is in the price, but although the prior two days had some excitment, the miners move in dollar terms was actually quite muted. No doubt as Thor suggested, and bear has warned, we now have a correction, smaller or more frightening as bear suggests, but the move which took us here was unimpressive in HL, WTZ, and a host of others.