I thought Charmin would be back. Whatever! Better open this now. About to leave the office will check back later.

I wonder what ever happen to the 'individual' who, at the May bottom, posted the bit about how Proctor had it right "as always" [sic] and that the POG was immediately going to $200 and Hooey to 35 or whatever. Haven't heard a bleat out of him in a couple of months.
What is the gold conundrum. The conundrum is this. How can the POG not be climbing in the face of such fundamental deterioration in the 'value' of fiat today? I'm sure I have the answer but it only begs another question. There is no real public awareness that gold is an investment that one uses to protect oneself in times of inflation. I saw an article today that said really hard times were coming when the hosing babble breaks and what to do about it. A lot of good advice was then given but what shocked me was there was not 1 mention of gold or silver or anything like that. Bonds, foreign stocks and cash if I remember correctly.
Be aggressive buy stocks, be safe buy houses, then be really safe go to cash and bonds.
The question that is begged is Why, for god's sake is their such ignorance? Can people really be herded so easily? Today we want you to buy our stocks, tomorrow our debt. We'll let you know what we need to sell next when the time comes.

Out of gold and ready to dabble on the dark side of the Broads, the short dark side that is.

Watch ya.

I'm 'all in' minus $1500 (no margin), haha. A bit uncomfortable with soo much negativity towards PMs. I'm up on DROOY, CBJ, QEE [for now]; breakeven/slightly up on AGT, EGO; down on GBN.

@

Finished my quick flirt with the broads. Missed the manic melt-up in one. Not sorry about that as my flirting was purely from the dark unseemly short side. Never even knew their names. Better that way. Two were wearing gold but they didn't do anything for me. Not really a safe way for a bear to entertain hisself.

Pinpoint????

fwiw, i agree w/you thor. the public is not aware of the pms as an alternative. in the latter stages of the 80s bull, gold was the anchor man. at the end of the news they would give the price of gold and the change on the day. as long as it basks in anonimity, we are ok.
it seems this is the bounce that i was looking for. then another down. should finish before months end. But , i am not looking @ time. this correction has already shaken quite a few bulls resolve. dharma

Thanks dharma, I know I've been shook.

I think there is a chance that the WhoMe? could bounce as high as 203.74 which would be a jolly good schauspiel to exuent. If we keep going up it's only a few points higher to BO terrortory if one wants back in. I really don't like that 3 peak pattern on the Hue. Lookat the previous rallies and subsequent a-oooo-gahs. 3 peaks then dump, repeat. And negative divergences abound. Look at the RSI. Not that I have any faith in divergences.

Frankly this picture doen't look very good either. Perhaps if I stand on my head.

am looking @89.63(mentioned last week) as support. if that doesnt hold then 88.34. seems to early for the bottom. but i wont complain if it is. hourly divergences forming* in a bull market divergences to the upside usually get taken out w/upside action. in a bear market the reverse is true. divergences on bottoming action get taken out. i find them very useful, especially when doing a wave count, as a wave 3 is the most powerful. then from there one can get his bearings. Probably not as potent as the north star to a sailor dharma

The bottom line is the HUI/gold ratio just flashed a major buy signal this week, only the fourth in this powerful bull to date. Each of the previous buy signals has heralded a major new upleg in gold stocks. In addition, the conservative lagging nature of these buy signals has always manifested itself in the past with them triggering after a major interim bottom was carved, probably the ugly May lows this time around.



Probabilities now strongly suggest that gold stocks ought to continue to outperform gold in the months ahead, and I am really excited to see how this all plays out.



http://www.zealllc.com/2005/huigold2.htm dharma
another exciting day!

XAU:

The sixty minute chart seems to show an impulse under construction.

If we do get a 5th wave down, it portends substantial weakness. After a limited correction at one higher degree of trend, we should then have another wave down--either a C or a 3.

Edit:

Geez. Do I have to criticize my own chart?

O.K. Here's what's wrong. Wave 4 is not complete. Don't speculate on the labelling. Without confirmation, label to the right on the chart. Wave 4 is too far short of appropriate fib retracements. Even a modest 23.6% would exceed the current level. How about that gap at 91.10 to 91.22? A modest 38.2% retrace would fill it.

Finally, wave 4's tend to be complex and protracted. This one day move has no significant alternation to wave 2. Whether we're in a simple 3rd wave or a iii of 3 extension, we'll have to tolerate this consolidation and the corrective pattern that follows to go short

The PMS conundrum continues. First of all, where is all? Second, $HUI makes an IT neckline break and a 20/10 bearish EMA cross-over. As good a sell signal as you're likely to get. Then what happens? The buyers step in and push it straight up. Was that the Zow 89 support line I heard? And the buyers are obviously in attendance witnessed by SAs 50 cent move up yesturdday. Well if the last move up was questionabull and the move down is suspect why should we suddenly believe this move up? Bull horn baloney. Usually ends up going down. But if 203.74 should show up might be a good place to lighten up.

This shows the bullhorn

hourly xau just flashed a buy signal. i am waiting. doesnt seem like enough time has elapsed. the market has gone positive. dharma

Maybe 1/4 of the way there. I use 65 minutes for ST. Zow has broken out (above 90) and MA has gone neutral. One for two.
On the Hooey no breakout, need 194+ for good break, and MA still falling.
Yesterday Zow broke up turned the MA to neutral then fell to close near the lows and the Hooey failed to even get its MA to stop falling. No hurry in my opinion. Looks like its working off the residual bullishness by the process of monetary transfer from the bull to the pig man.
I'm projecting the low for July 28th plus or minus.

XAU:

Little bounce after the impulse down.

If I'm correct, we should rally to somewhere between 91.22 and 92 and then fall to 85-86 in the second impulse down.

Thanks for the target Bear.

GG:

Megaphone top and potential reverse symmetrical Triangle?

Note the flat MACD tops versus price's rising upper trendline.

And note the tiny fractal forming at the "e" wave.

If my analysis of this pattern is correct, GG's going to shed 25% of its value after it bounces off that upper trendline.

NEM:

I drew this chart as I like to trade NEM or NEM's options for short term moves. With op-ex for August expiring on the 20th, options are a very good alternative for short term swing trades.

The blue box (into which we place recycleable garbage) shows the 38.2-50% retracement level of the impulse down. Visually, resistance is more likely at $38.00.

Can somebody tell me what is the naked short threshold list ?
Found this dated 15 th july

www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been added to the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ABR), B&H Ocean Carriers (AMEX: BHO), Insignia Solutions, Plc. (NASDAQ: INSG), Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC), Pioneer Co. (NASDAQ: PONR) and Teton Energy (AMEX: TEC). For a complete list of companies on the naked short lists please visit our web site.

XAU and NEM:

My targets have been hit. Long NEM August 40 puts at $2.30.

fwiw, i got a buy signal short term on the hourlies, but didnt take it. i think that this correction has more to go in price and time. i am looking @ mid august and 88-86 w/an outside shot @85. then, well lets wait and see if this happens. i bought ivan this morning, it looks like its been in a big triangle on the weeklies. dharma

What the heck is up with the dollar? Its all over the place today.

Can you say short term top?

NEM:

Action over the last 2 days is corrective.

The overlap confirms the 3 wave move.

An overlap of 37.62, however, could have bullish short term implications.

China depegs.

Malaysia depegs.

Singapore depegs ?

Reevaluated Yuan buys commodities from post-Bretton-Woods USD world with existing USD reserves, even if higher prices make U.S. buy less, as anyway Chinese USD reserves cannot buy significant U.S. companies.
USD falls from short squeeze/speculative/engineered top, maybe with international support @ USDI 80.
U.S. get what wished for .

XAU:

Impulse down followed by a smaller impulse up.

Second impulse may be wave a, and the correction will be broader and longer than I expected.

develop these systems, then override them! karumbha!!!!! looks like the buy signal on the hourlies was a good one. i will wait for the correction to be over, then add. looks like they are adding money to the system at a breakneck speed. this will goose all the markets higher. dharma

NEM:

The impulse was followed by an abc.

The next move, yesterday afternoon was an abc of one degree lesser trend.

The way to count it to to assign an "x". We'll now have a second abc up.

It is simply a more complex correction--not the start of something big.

Went long. Watching it careful like. It was crappy for a pullback as they were really very well supported. I'm still like bv of the opinion that she ain't done down yet. Still if it wants to go up a bit more.

Free Elliot week

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I looked at the dollar agian today and was thinking: what the heck is the dollar doing?

I guess it makes sense this time.

This is big news!

Bought another 1000 GSS @ 3.05

Flash news
New terrorist attacks in London

Dollar down again. Really wild the last two days.

i dont know if the correction is over. however surprises will be to the upside. this is huge news. now the chinese etc do not have to buy dolars to keep their currency pegged. above the two recent highs @95.67 and we are starting a new upwave. dharma

Careful. Rangebound 190-208 HUI. ABC up would be 210.

XAU:

Here's the bearish count. And there's not a lot to commend it.

The decline from the November highs is a large ABC correction.

It is followed by a smaller abc--an "x" wave. Action after an x wave is a repetition of the larger ABC.

If so, the up and down action since the beginning of July is a pair of 1 and 2's setting up a very nasty wave iii of 3.

The 60 minute zeroes in on this action.

The wave 1's are plainly impulses down. The big problem is the final wave ii.

The action over the last 3 days, labelled as red abc, hardly looks corrective. It rises in a parabolic channel. As wave ii cannot overlap the origin of i, any rally will negate the count.

Absent an impulsive decline---and very soon, this count will be wrong.

NEM:

Again, here's the bearish count. And there's a bit more to commend it.

It's a 10 minute chart. Look at the candles for the last 30 minutes. On a 30 minute chart, 2 days ago and today, they were bearish engulfing. There's a lot of late day selling.

This is not an impulse up due to the overlap between the first red a and blue B. The blue count traces out a clear ABC, with impulsive looking red a and c waves and corrective looking red c waves.

Retracement is nearing 61.8%.

I got to tell you with all due respect I am having a problem following here Bear. Are you bullish or bearish? This is the way I see it. If we take out 210 we are for sure in a bull move and the double bottom of 163-165 WAS THE bottom. The HUI and the XAU must follow the same form here. One cannot be bullish and the other bearish. This is where the Ellioticians lose me. It is not possible.

The "HUI over 210 signifies a new bull move and that 162 & 165 double bottom was the bottom" reasoning makes compelte sense to me.

From what I understand of bear's counts, if the HUI rallies any more from here, it negates the bearish count he is going on, due to the overlap. If it collapses here, the bearish count is correct and predicts the 'one more leg down' scenario.

The HUI and the NEM chart look different, NEM is showing weakness. Perhaps this just means that NEM is showing company specific problems and will underperform in the near future, relative to the HUI?


The count that makes a lot of sense to me is: 2001 to the end of 2003 was 5 waves up, which is wave 1 of this gold bull market followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, where A and C each ended in the double bottoms of 163/165. This is to be followed by wave 3 up, which started May 16, and we are early in it. (This is the same as what Frank Barberra posted on Financial sense and discussed in the interview on FSN a couple weeks back).


Bearvests bearish scenario is that the C wave of that ABC correction is not finished yet, and has one more wave down. (If I understand correctly). Obviously, I hope (and believe) that 165 was THE bottom.

Well as I see it, it's the mid to late July BS spike down before taking off as it does every year. Went back in but unfortunately chose as one of my vehicles KRY which got a haircut and ended up losing money even with the indices rallying. That's life in the PMS suctor. Eventually sold it all near the close.

Long Count:

Yes, Ander's got my count right.

Since December, 2003, we've been in a wave 2 correction.

It is not a simple zig-zag ABC, because the count should be 5-3-5.

The blue A wave is only a 3 wave affair.

The pattern to my eyes is a flat. It counts 3-3-5, with the B wave retracing close to the entire A wave.

The C wave has 4 of the required 5 waves in---abcd---.Wave e should be an impulse down.

My near term count is that we've completed wave 1 of e, and this is wave 2 of e.

My near term count will be wrong if we rally from here, and it may throw doubt on my longer term count which should be a 5 wave C (possible ending diagonal to create MACD divergence).

Thanks Bear so you are in the 120-150 HUI correction camp unless we clear what number exactly?

If we take out 206.87, I must revise my count.

The "flat" calls for the C wave to retrace to about the end of the A wave. It often throws over slightly.

I'm looking for a bottom at 155-163. If you extend the chart back, major support should be at about 155--former resistance, while shorter term support is around 163.

Gold:

I don't wish to be taken to turn bullish if we rally from here.

All it means is that I'll have to revise my count (and take a hit on my Nem puts).

The count for Gold is still quite bearish.

We've had an impulse down, an abc correction, and an impulse down of one lesser degree of trend. Two impulses have travelled alone. They always travel with a friend.

There's more downside, I suggest, after this minor degree correction plays out.