"They call me Mellow Yellow."
-Donovan

If you only make 2 trading decisions a year in the gold arena, they should be buy gold at the end of July and sell it in February. This strategy applied to Gold would have yielded:

2001/2 $265 - $310
2002/3 $310 - $385
2003/4 $350 - $415
2004/5 $390 - $440

Doesn't work quite so well for the goldistocks, however, where the best buy month is probably March but has been getting later. May is now best. July is probably next best. Selling is best in the Dec 1 to Feb timeframe. But buying in March and selling in February just doesn't have the same cachet as Sell in May and go out and play.

PS: Where's that damn Yankee, anyway???

bv's Last Post:



I just re-read Chapter 1 of Prechter's "Elliott Wave Principle". He lists four corrective patterns:

i. Zig-zag: An abc that counts 5-3-5

ii. Flat: An abc that counts 3-3-5

iii. Triangle: A triangle that counts 3-3-3-3-3 (or an expanding triangle that still counts 3-3-3-3-3)

iv. Combination: Any 3 wave move, an "x" wave and another 3 wave move. This is a "double three". There can also be a "triple three".

After listing these four patterns, he says at p. 60:

" As far as we know, this chapter lists all wave formations that can occur in the price movement of the broad stock market averages. Under the Wave Principle, no other formations than those listed here will occur"

So it seems that a 3-3-3 pattern does not exist.

GOOBER UPDATE:

RATIO CHARTS

goober like whu he seein' chere!

Gold/Euro Breakout

RYDEX NET CASH FLOW / ASSETS / HUI and such

Glass Half Foo makes goober happy

Glass Half Empty makes goober cautious

on a weekly basis - sure looks like were close for some real action!!!

a few observations from a goober:

-specs blew out 100,000 contracts / gold only fell $20 indicating very solid underlying strength

-nice looking bullish divergence developing in HUI – price stays firm / consolidates as Rydex PM Fund's assets are liquidated

-goober now lookin for mergers to begin (this fall) as majors desperately need to gobble up exploration stage resource / junior producers . USD strength against local currencies and lower input costs such as steel/concrete against gold making development economics better now.
I.E., bought CLG, ANO.TO & other great bargains of this ilk at recent lows!

-silver lookin like it's ready to pounce - got plenty but will load up some more on leveraged favorites

goober out!!!

with the 2% upward revaluation of the renminbi set to a basket of currencies, the yen just got a lot more important for gold. (hey - copper just got 2% cheaper for chinese 9.5% growth - no fair! )

with the breakout in gold-yen, if the back-test of former resistance (now support) holds, it would appear (if history is our guide) that gold stocks have a lot of catching up to do


hope everyone enjoying the ride!

goober out

Gold Majestic:

Always love your charts and the depth of your analysis, but I've got a word or two about your physical appearance.

You've gained weight and it seems your hair has grown back in.

Presumably, the chemo was successful.

Congratulations.

Maybe you should now consider a membership in a gym. And, by the way, keep the hat on.

I wonder where everybody is. Out buying gold coins or in buying gold stocks? Well, for better or for worse I bought that pullback to 201. That means, essentially, I bailed at Hooey 204 and bought back at 201. It gave me a chance to rebalance my fartpolio cleaning out some zeros and adding 3s to 7s. And juice to be different I picked up a U238 stock, Urix (let's hope it's not pronounced You risks!)

a few days-2 weeks left before i see strength in the metals. waiting. this biz its like 90% of the time its boredom and the remaining 10% of the time something happens. dharma

Yep . Patience Pays.


Best,

The CoinGuy

Urix. Bottom of the barrel thor. Seriously.

Just busting chops Thor. Why not check this out. Large cross within Cannacord today. Look at the volume. Hammer from last week.

Wunderbar! Can't buy Canadian traded stocks.

This one just got an AMEX listing. Dines pick.

GG:

This is the only miner displaying this pattern.

Almost all the others have an abcd down pattern from November.

Glamis:

Here's another bullish looking chart, like GG, with very bearish implications.

It hit highs and appeared to be a double top breakout. But it now has MACD double divergence and the high seems to be little more than a backtest of the rising lower trendline (which turned into resistance).

Bullish on MDG?

Growing tired of this trading range bs. We need a good cleanout down to 150 HUI to get the show going I think. 392 Gold is what I'd like to see.

Well flat again or nearly so. A Hooey 5 point smack down. Unfortunately I was asleep for yesterday's neckline breakdown so had to wait until today to do my panic selling. It was all a case of very unfortunate bad timing. Really should have seen it coming. Lured in by the old July spike down and reversal. Nope, double jeopardy this time but the signals were there. Especially yesterday. Looked ugly from moments after I was committed. Today it's simple-minded across the board selling. They are all marked down because THEY ALL MUST GO!
I don't have one stock on my board (26) that isn't red. And thus dies breakout attempt II.

Turd times a charm.

Where is that damn Yankee?

XAU:

Here's where we are at noon Tuesday:

XAU:

Here it is at 3 degrees of trend.

The monthly chart shows the corrective flat. We are in the 5th and final wave of C.

The daily chart shows the 3 wave action in wave 4 of C. I don't know where it ended. It cold be setting up multiple 1-2's if it ended early.

The 30 minute chart picks up the action in the 5th wave down. The entire chart is wave 3 of 5. We impulsed down two weeks ago. I posted the impulses never travel alone. That was wave 1 of 3 of 5. After a very sharp abc correction last week, we are impulsing down again in wace 3 of 5. There are several 1-2's, so we should have impulsive downside action in 3rd waves followed by boring sideways action in 4th's, and impulsive 5th's.

All the while, the market should grind lower, until 5 waves are complete in 5 of C. This should take a month or more.

I'm going to take a vacation from posting for a while to allow others to express their views.

Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

"This is not the time to be scared, it is time to be bullish", writes Mark Swanson, "Second Gold Stock Breakout Attempt Coming"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson072505.html

Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

[/quote]

You're going to close a position because somebody posted a chart that went against your thinking?

Geez, if I closed mine every time a chart was posted that didn't agree with my views I'd be in deep shit. Sometimes, I'd have saved myself from losses and sometimes I'd have prevented myself from making gains.

Take a look at the volume.

The market has a very short memory. I remember last year around this time charts were posted on a weekly basis that said down, down ,down. All the way from 180 to 240.

It may go down and it may not, go over to Gold-Eagle and somebody will post a chart that says the exact opposite.

Time for me to go back on vacation dudes, this is getting old. Good luck.

Almost every summer (Northern Hemisphere) it's the same and this is especially true for Youlie. Breakout attempts fail, support lines get violated then reverse. Volume is low (of course) and people are waiting for drilling results to come in. So the doldrums set in. Moving averages flatten out and crossovers are often as frequent as they are meaningless. Finally at some appointed hour on some unknown day in the late summer or fall, there's a break that keeps going. One you don't want to be on the wrong side of. Here's an example of a basic timing model for the Hooey in the last year:

Buy Aug 16 190.1
Sell Dec 02 234.4 +44.3 +23.3%

Buy Feb 10 200.1
Sell Mar 21 216.9 +16.8 +8.4% Cumul +31.7%

Buy May 24 175.6
Sell Jul 19 193.1 +17.5 +10.0% Cumul +41.7%

Buy Jul 20 194.2
Sell Jul 27/8 ????????

Like I said this is a very basic model involving EMAs, a bit of candlepower and a neckline or 2. But it's the sort of system which can do wonders for your account even though only played from the long side and without additional leverage such as options or margin.
For 11 months there was only 4 signals, SELL, BUY, SELL, BUY but in the last couple of weeks there have been 2 more and any more downside today and we will get another which could make for a flat to loss trade.
There is more to this sell in May and go away thing then meets the eye. It's not just a matter of selling due to the expectation of buying back cheaper, it's just that the market during the summer is so unpredictable.

Note: Well I can't speak for bearvest ('cause lawyers can speak for themselves) but it's just possible that the vest is expressing some displeasure at the obvious fact that he is doing a lot of work here and getting virtually nothing in return. I'm not saying that you few who are here are not contributing; it is just we are far too few for the scope of it. Do the low numbers imply that the gold rush is over as 8 year cycles might suggest, or that we've only just begun and haven't even had a wave III breakout yet let alone a wave 5 top. Personally I think we could be in a long Wave II that could conceivably last for another 2 years. Comments??

The long term euro gold indicator says we have been in a buy and hold bull since
2000 as per weekly chart attached

The weekly RSI chart says we are overbought after the gold break out and working it off

[QUOTE]Do the low numbers imply that the gold rush is over as 8 year cycles might suggest, or that we've only just begun and haven't even had a wave III breakout yet let alone a wave 5 top. Personally I think we could be in a long Wave II that could conceivably last for another 2 years. Comments?? [/QUOTE]

I think these goldstocks are very difficult to trade and since little is happening
people are keeping busy trading something else
I sold one position and rebought one position in the last 6 months
Luckily there are allways pruuuttty goldcoins

On the count I think like you we are in a Wave II but very near a break into
the Wave III
This should be demonstrated by gold mines doing 3 to 5 times better on a percentage basis then gold ( for the moment they are making a relative comeback by not going down whilst gold is going down )

Thor a 20 year bear market will do that to a guy. Know what I mean? They get interested it's time to rock and roll. I can assure you I appreciate all the work done here on the forum

Yes, indeed! I, for one am going to miss the bearvs furry face. Maybe he'll post when he has something of a positive nature to write.

[quote=Old Habits,Jul 26 2005, 11:28 PM]
Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

[/quote]

You're going to close a position because somebody posted a chart that went against your thinking?

Geez, if I closed mine every time a chart was posted that didn't agree with my views I'd be in deep shit. Sometimes, I'd have saved myself from losses and sometimes I'd have prevented myself from making gains.

Take a look at the volume.

The market has a very short memory. I remember last year around this time charts were posted on a weekly basis that said down, down ,down. All the way from 180 to 240.

It may go down and it may not, go over to Gold-Eagle and somebody will post a chart that says the exact opposite.

Time for me to go back on vacation dudes, this is getting old. Good luck.

[/quote]

If I would have seen his post before the trading day yesterday I could have closed with a gain. But after yesterdays action I am flat on those calls, minus the juice.

I will see how we open. GG was holding up well so I kept the position open, however the action in NEM, ABX, etc... was/is making me nervous.

I am still long shares of GG, CDE, and CEF and will most likely hold through this correction.

I am thinking the PMS is about to lead the market down a bit.

FYI - I just closed those calls.

still thinking that we have more to go on this correction. maybe as low as 85 on the xau. dharma

8:19am 07/27/05
Newmont Mining earns rise, top expectations (NEM) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) reported second-quarter earnings of $50 million, or 11 cents a share, up from $37 million, or 8 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Excluding discontinued operations, earnings were 19 cents a share, exceeding the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of 17 cents a share. Revenue rose to $1.01 billion from last year's $982 million. Gold sales fell to 2.01 million ounces from 2.05 million ounces while the average realized price rose to $421 per ounce from $395 per ounce. For 2005, the gold miner expects gold sales of 8.4 million to 8.5 million ounces. The stock closed Tuesday down 54 cents at $37.40.
dharma

Wow, bearishness all over the place - still. You all could be right, WTFDIK? But I'm still 100% long. I see hardly any reason for gold to go down short-term, maybe that's why it will, hehe.

Not bearish. Corrective mode and ready to be proven wrong.

ThorAss' Economic Whether Report,

brought to you by the letter K, and the numbers 1,1,2,3,5,8,.......

Well it certainly has been a mild K-wave® winter so far but a cold snap is now forecast. Strong winds will likely cause much structural damage and people are advised to protect themselves and their loved ones. Proper stocks should be bought and stored safely. Primary dwellings should be made secure and whether-proofed.

And we're back with the sports .... but first a message from our sponsor, the good people at PMS HOLDings; Bob ...

Thanks Dave, well it's been quite a season® hasn't it sports fans but I'd like to take a moment if I may to talk seriously about your investments. As those who know us will tell you, we like the old gold and silver to prevail this season and will in the end take the cup but they can be damn streaky. So I'd like to tell you whether how I think they are going to do over the next few games. In a word, bad. Usually at this time of year the players are rested and they play their farking hearts out but this season they look tired. I think they could lose Thursday's game big or maybe Friday's and that would not set them up well for the games to follow.



+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

I'm going to drop the analogy now (Yes it's me ThorAss!) because I think I've got something to say to you. Here's what I see:

I see the Hooey not acting well. I was hoping we would start to see patterns similar to last year but instead I see patterns ominously similar to last November at the top. We could be a day or a week away from a confirmation that a significant top was just reached in July. The MACD monthly is suggesting that the top was reached and we are on our way lower but the curve is flattening suggesting a possible bottoming process. However the weeklies are showing exactly the opposite, rising but flattening suggestive of a topping process. The dailies on the other hand are not looking healthy falling and looking to gather speed.

The monthly MACDs show the multi-year cycles (in PMS the 8 year cycle dominates) and what I see is very suggestive of a low possibly in 2006 or 2007.

The Weekly MACDs is dominated by the 1 year cycle and not surprisingly is rising due to the seasonality. The weeklies are still suggesting that a break higher is very much "in play". A move above 207? Go with it for a likely move much higher by year end. However, if we continue to fish-flop around here we are going to go lower, then we will see whether a breakout this year is still on the cards.

The Daily MACDs are what kills it for me and one of the things which has me on the sidelines. A broad top H&S formation which is pointing to an almost immediate decline as early as Thursday.

However, accumulation in many stocks is very good especially those with other resource interests outside of PMS. Some of this may be due to overall SM strength especially amongst the large and mega-caps. Somehow I don't find that too encouraging. If most of the rally in May was relief of 0versold conditions in the mid-caps, juniors and micro-caps combined with broad strength supporting the big fish then one prop is gone and the other could soon join it. Sure you can always point to a few stocks that will be doing well even as the majority sink but I'm commenting on the PMS suctor as a hole.

Timing Model: Almost completely neutral with only an imperceptibly small Long bias. Best to wait for a break.

Seasonality: Favourable: BRIGHT GREEN
8 Year Cycle: Negative: DEEP CRIMSON
Timing: Neutral (Small Long Bias) Call it palest of pale greens.
Conclusion: Except a week rally (50 pts?) starting some time this summer or fall.

TATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATA

Okay now I ask you where else can you get such a no nonsense ANALysis of the PMS? (Okay some nonsense). I'm really surprised that more people don't come here.

Thor I'm hanging on your every word. Good stuff keep it coming.

Thor,

Good move getting out of Kry last week, today its gone down about a third. Anyone heard what the problem is? I guess something bad has happened with their mine permit.

Crystallex International Corporation (TSX: KRY - News; Amex: KRY - News) President and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Bruce, today confirmed that the Company is not aware of any developments which might account for recent weakness in share price and increased market activity.

I'm not a KRY fan (maybe something about Venezuela?). It's had some great movements though for traders.

Thanks AS, palix and tfh. It was all in the chart and I was a fool to buy it,then even to hold it the very short time I did. If ever there was a chart that telegraphed a stock on the edge of the abyss it was that one.
I was going to write earlier but never got another chance until now but it occured to me that the last thing one wanted to see today was a big push up in the POG which would imply that the boyz were probably getting short again. And this combined with no real follow-through in the PMS shares is ominous to say the least. That being said, ST the Hooey which is untainted by the $1+ drop in PDG is back in buy territory. Still Advance/Decline is not encouraging thus far,and the bigger moves are to the downside. I seem to remember we had this happen in April? where gold was going up and the stocks weren't. The Hooey and Zow to POG ratios plunged. Then gold followed and reached a low after the gold stocks had already bottomed and were working higher. Have to go back and check that.

I think it will be far much easier to predict the next move after it is done.

thor thanks for your analysis.
looking @the chart pattern, the xau made a top and since has made an abc correction, which we either completed or are in the process of completing. so, i assume that we are going to have another impulse wave up.
as for the 8 year cycle, i am aware of it and it has predicted tops every 8 years like clockwork. however gold only started trading in 71 or 72 . so, if 04 was the top then it has worked for 5 cycles. i would like to see it work for a longer time period, but this is all we have.
i use rsi for my work, and it isnt giving a clue @ this point. corrections serve to confound and confuse and this has been a year so far. i am going w/the bullish case until shown otherwise. dharma

I think it comes down to a question of timeframes. So long as gold is a "standard" then there is no market. Gold just "is" and everything else compares to it just as a metre is "defined". And as you rightly point out we've only been off the "standard" since Tricky Dick and have undoubtedly been bullish since then with some ups and downs. However those ups and downs have come in the major cycle wavelength of 8 years. There is also potential a larger cycle in play that has not had a chance to properly define itself but the period from 1980 to 2000 might be part of a 34-55 year cycle. I kinda think 40 year cycle though. If this is true, on a multi-decade basis we are in an uptrend. However, on an eight year basis we are in a downcycle. I believe that these 2 cycles are destructively interfering which has led to a long flat which could stretch out for another couple of years. Now within that 8 year cycle there are yearly cycles and shorter ones. My trading strategy is to catch the upmoves on the yearly cycles. I will trade more frequently than twice a year as timing is not an exercise in perfection but merely a strategy which should lead to rides on the big moves and a bunch of in and outs for little effect.
Anyway, I don't call a yearly cycle a bull or a bear nor anything shorter so it comes down to an 3-4 year bear (8 year cycle) and a 20? year bull (on a 40? year cycle). Since the original terms bull and bear were intended to define the 4 year cycles of the SM I'd have to say it's a bear so I'm bearish. But that is just a label, a throwaway and neither defines my position, my leanings or my strategy.
The way forward to me is clear, well murkily clear. As your RSIs clearly show, the market is neutral, with the indicators still just in positive territory but flatlined. However, my work suggests another playable move down is ahead before we can stretch higher for this year's move. However, I would likely join the move on an upside break and am prepared to get bucked and whopped a few times, if need be, to be on board when the train leaves the station in Earnest.
The other way for me to come on board is thru the move down. I have several signals which I can use to buy on the daily charts.

1. A bullish RSI reversal.
2. A bullish doji set-up.
3. A turn in the short term EMAs combined with a break of first resistance.
4. A short-medium duration bullish EMA cross-over.

That is how I get long. Right now I'm flat because the EMAs are forming almost a single flat line.
SoI put it to all y'all, by your definition, am I a bull or a bear? I kinda think of myself as the trader in bearskins with the horns on my head.

ThorAss

PS: I never use candle patterns or bearish RSI reversals for tops (sells) but wait for a neckline break or EMA cross-over. Why? Basically because bottoms tend to be sharp affairs while tops tend to be more protracted. So if you like pointy tops and rounded bottoms try a beauty pageant.

I see I didn't c;early define what I meant by a "break". My idea of a break may not be the average persons. Most people now would cal it a break on a move or possibly a close above the July 206 high. Wheras this would constitute a break, depending on how we get there, we may have what I would call a break on a lower level even if we don't take out the recent 191 low point first.
Another thing, we are temporarily trapped between the 38% and 62% retracement levels of the move from 191.6 to 202 on the Hooey.

So far the XAU has received support at the 50% retrace of the range from the lows to the move to 113. The HUI has received support and has made a double bottom (163-165) well above the 50% of the range hi to lo. Silver's 6.80 is still intact as is Gold's 410. This could be as Petch suggested a while back to be a flat correction which is very bullish long term in an ongoing bull market in the miners. The wild card might be a collapse in the broad market. Interesting to say the least. It might not be a bad idea to invest a small portion of your money allocated to the miners here say 25-33% and let it ride and await a signal for the balance of your funds.

For the larger time frame view IMO it's really very simple. Until Greenspan changes direction we are in wait mode.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=%5EIR...=m&q=c&c=%5Ehui


Certainly some that have their own reason for growing, great deposits, new low cost mine...stuff like AUY, DEZ and OZN bucked the trend but generally the higher short term rates put an end to the party 12/03

Notice how much time this market is taking to decline/consolidate versus the speed at which we went up. Since we have consolidated at the higher end of the range I consider it bullish unlike the move up in the mid '90s.

I don't believe what you're describing is a sign of bullishness so much as a description of market dynamics. Bullish or not that is how markets tend to work.