At bearly 5 pages a week, I think perhaps monthly will do.

Prolly right, but if you make bad calls - like I often do...nice to have a new thread to move on to....

Still think we take a step or two back before going forward, but spot currently not giving a damn about what I think.

Well then here's my monthly, just in case by some stretch I happen to get it right.

Charmin - should be back in a week or so.

You still may be right, a good start doesn't guarantee a good finish. If anyone knows that it's a holder of gold.

The HUI has some proving to do, it needs a couple of strong up days.

Wasn't sure which way it was going to go today but I was pretty sure they were going to try to move it. They always like to do something while the Canadian markets are closed. Don't know why.

if people have not seen the forbes article on gold, i posted the link last week, very provacative, especially since establishment forbes has been anti gold forever.
it feels like 90% of the time nothing happens. its preparing for the 10% that consumes the 90%. anyhow, w/this mornings action, it is apparent the correction has more to go. looking for an end to this, towards the end of this month. dharma

"Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace from day to day...."

The past 4 days of pathetic performance in the gold stocks have essentially negated July 1, when gold was down 8.60 and the HUI flat. Hard to be bullish when 4 straight +$2 days in gold end with the HUI flat each time.

Maybe it's a clever ruse to convince weak hands to sell their gold shares cheaply.


...or not!



Fun, isn't it?

My Hooey timing model registered a COT today with a SELL to be executed tomorrow. However this is a SELL by the slenderest of margins. These weak signals are not so trustworthy. A whipsaw occured on 19th/20th of June resulting in a SELL then buying back the next day a point higher. This could easily happen again. On a good signal the model executes on the open (or could even have executed intra-day today) whilst in the present situation a lower low or even a break of 195.5 are preferred.
My model is NOT black-box and requires some minor quality assurance. However, these "adjustments" make little real difference to the performance since most of the real gains come from the big unmistakeable moves. This stuff is just chicken feed window dressing. A point here and a point there.
Certainly today MIGHT have been a 2 week cycle low and we head up from here for a few days at least. However, it seems to me that recent performance suggests the beginning of a waterfall decline to where ... I have no idea. This is more support for my sell weakness, hold strength theory for tomorrow.

====================================================

Why you shouldn't look at a correction in the PMS in a negative light!!

A} You're 100% long and NOT a trader. Well you of all people shouldn't be concerned. In fact why are you even watching it. You're not looking to buy and you are sure it is going higher, much higher. You'll know it's time to sell when the guy at checkout counter of the hardware store gives you a hot gold stock tip.

B} You're still accumulating but NOT a trader. Well then, a correction is just what you're looking for. Now it's only a question of what to buy and at what price or on which day.

C} You ARE a trader (maket timer.) This is a chance for you to take some profits, then buy back at lower levels thus ultimately increasing profits. You can rebalance your holdings and reselect your portfolio. If worse comes to worse and you get whopsawed then at least you know you were playing the odds and what you did was "the right thing" on average. And at least you've generated some commissions for your hard working borker.

Welcome to the dark side. Now do you fade yourself?

I think as dharma does this has more downside to go. If however we can close above 210 we have been building a launch pad and I will just close my eyes and buy.

This and some other forums, where the riches are just at the end of the rainbow and the big move is right around the corner, you can see it on the HUI chart - really.

My favorite is "just one more low" THEN it will be safe.

That being said, I've swallowed it all, hook, line and sinker.

On a serious note, I'm watching RGLD and GG for leadership. It seems NEM has been replaced as the leader of the pack.

Well until you reach Shangri-la ...

LEADER OF THE PACK
Hilary and Halie Duff
- From American Dreams

[spoken]
Is she really going out with him?
Well, there she is. Let's ask her.
Betty, is that Jimmy's ring you're wearing?
Mm-hmm
Gee, it must be great riding with him
Is he picking you up after school today?
Uh-uh
By the way, where'd you meet him?

I met him at the candy store
He turned around and smiled at me
You get the picture? (yes, we see)
That's when I fell for (the leader of the pack)

My folks were always putting him down (down, down)
They said he came from the wrong side of town
(whatcha mean when ya say that he came from the wrong side of town?)
They told me he was bad
But I knew he was sad
That's why I fell for (the leader of the pack)

One day my dad said, "Find someone new"
I had to tell my Jimmy we're through
(whatcha mean when ya say that ya better go find somebody new?)
He stood there and asked me why
But all I could do was cry
I'm sorry I hurt you (the leader of the pack)

[spoken]
He sort of smiled and kissed me goodbye
The tears were beginning to show
As he drove away on that rainy night
I begged him to go slow
But whether he heard, I'll never know

Look out! Look out! Look out! Look out!

I felt so helpless, what could I do?
Remembering all the things we'd been through
In school they all stop and stare
I can't hide the tears, but I don't care
I'll never forget him (the leader of the pack)

The leader of the pack - now he's gone
The leader of the pack - now he's gone
The leader of the pack - now he's gone
The leader of the pack - now he's gone

So, GG makes new high, but is it a high before the smackdown or is it a breakout? If I look at the POG, then I'd say fakeout, not breakout.

GRS also getting close.

Then again, the POG is down and HUI up for now, although by days end, could be down hard.

The possibilities are endless.

This stuff gives me a headache.

Correction phase should be over soon, Bad news is gold won't make a big move till 2006

Watch the D wave

[quote=FeedFool,Aug 2 2005, 09:54 AM]
Correction phase should be over soon, Bad news is gold won't make a big move till 2006

Watch the D wave



Spoken with such confidence.

Seasonality might speak differently. The recent pattern has seen a pretty good rally from Sept. into the 1st quarter.

We should know soon enough.

So, we had gold up $2 or more for 4 days in a row, and the HUI cant move, and now gold flat and the HUI up more than its been at any point in the previous 4 days. I guess we just needed gold to NOT go up, lol.

feed, i respect your work, but there is no way to know if we go into a triangle. we may just rocket out of here, and that is what i am looking for. i have not sold on this correction, my boat is full., rocking back and forth, but full. and i aint selling yet. who knows the july doldrums could be over. almost everything has appreciated, and appreciated substanially these last 20years, except the pms. their time is not too far off. look @ a monthly chart, this last year looks like a platform, consolidation, for a big up move, dharma

added to CBJ yesterday @ 2.09 -- haven't sold anything although was very frustrated after yesterday RE: drooy, qee, gbn, cbj, ego, agt. that's what i get for playing with dirty you know what.

rewind to what dharma wrote the other day, "corrections serve to confound and confuse". how true, thank you dharma

also thanks to thor, charmin (hurry back, there's mutiny in the air! ), tfh, ander, old habits, bv, ageka, & hadjin, 'the regulars' to this toxic water hole...someone should really check the mercury and cyanide levels.

and it's great to get camio appearances from: the coinguy, plantigrade, gold majestic, metamucil, and our e-woofer feedfool.

eventually we'll laugh at when there used to be "bearly 5 pages a week". old habits: you can put that one right along side "just one more low", haha.

i'm sure you guys have noticed the start of the next bull leg in copper...brrrreeakout. 2.00/lb going to come quick - sell the spike then take your chips elsewhere while it goes sidways for ages.

daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G]Boooom

NG doing well. (Finally)

Also, buy QEE. Please

Latest Embry -- PDF

.17-.18 needs to hold QEE I think Ander. The funny thing about the damn jrs. is they never run when they're supposed to and when you've given up on the sector they double.

Yes it does. Very high volume hammer today, closed back even at .20.
I have 24k shares of it at .22 average.

I want my goldshares shaken not stirred

XAU:

Ominous 1-2/i-ii pattern setting up on the daily with potential MACD bearish divergence. If correct, it could be setting up a 3rd of a 3rd. Read Doc's P.M. commentary in the Examiner. The narrowing pattern in the Bollinger Bands, not shown, also indicate a big move coming.

Intra-day chart shows the limits to the count.

Overlap of 95.07 or 95.10 invalidates the count.

Overlap of 92.00 has iv overlapping i and turning blue wave C into a 3 wave pattern.

Overlap of 89.02 overlaps the origin of the C wave and signals the completion of the blue ABC correction.

NEM:

Monthly thread, Eh?

End of month target for NEM is $32.50. Added shorts at $38.51 and August 40 puts at $1.90.

The way things were going, I was thinking we'd be doing quarterlies b4 the year was out. The patterns and actions have me a little flummoxed at the mo. (Good shorting point in NEM.) However making money long or short at this time looks a tad tricky. Some stuff looks good then bad then good. Rotation pure and simple. Is no new money coming in? Is it summer nonsense? I wrote many many moons ago that summer was designed to deceive. Breakouts (usually) fail working just often enough that you can't trust them either way. Trends reverse then reverse again. Signals occur then immediately reverse. Seems the best way to handle it is kind of a summertime Groundhog Day-Reverse Hibernation scenario.

So as a good cave-dwelling gold bug bull bear, you sold your gold shares ahead of the tax season sell off then bought at the May lows for the Dover Sole rally then sold in late June ahead of the July smackdown. Then you wandered off to your cave for some well-earned rest. Long about mid-July, you yawned, stretched and wandered back out into the light to see what was happening. Well not much, but you try to stay awake in case there is a big fall rally coming early. But to no avail, by the time August rolls around and you've had 33 sessions trading within a 15 point range (Hooey), you are sound asleep. But you know it's Reverso_Groundhog Day and if something doesn't happen very very soon you're going back to bed until things get a little cooler.

Gold in Rands and in Euros are backtesting important breakout levels now. For this move to be real I think we have to hold around here or breakdown. 2800 and 350 are the areas to watch. 435-438 is the area to watch for Gold to be contained if we are indeed going to break back down. So far Silver has respected its 6.80 and Gold 410. The 210-212 level in the HUI is the midpoint and a level to watch for a breakout of the trading range.

The eurodollar games are on
forexmarketscom

gold

Bearvest - thanks for posting your trades.

It may surprise some here, but I gotta agree. If the HUI and XAU can't get moving to the upside soon - especially considering the strenth of the metals - then the miners might be in some trouble.

TFH is right - 1st line in the sand right here at 435

On a positive note. GRS hit a new high on 4 X's avg. volume yesterday.

Silver is looking tired - resistance at $7.32

Just hoping the big move is to the upside, buck has plenty of room to fall. Getting exciting now.

I'm pretty sure all of you jumped on USGL at .38 - up another 50% today.

Puplava is out with the third part of his fictional story "The Day After Tommorrow", pretty long winded but interesting reading. He's a good writer. Here"s part 3:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/aug022005.html

XAU:

Topping?

Either that or getting ready to bust a move, either way it's going to be a good one.

GG - new high

RGLD - knockin' on the door

Probably time to sell.

I notice momo Metamucil is a lurking.

Its good to see so many bear on PM

Starting to look like kind of a BO

If it doesn't reverse right away at the MA200

the dolar below 88 signals, to me, that the top is in on the dolar. w/malasya and china moving, the latter to a small extent, out of dolars, perhaps the stampede has started. i am a precious metals bull. period. no fiat currency has ever lasted historically. the dollar will be no different . time is on our side , it will still take patience. if a worthless stock like cmgi could go up 57 in a day. what will happen when the recognition hits that the dollar is worth jack!! dont lose sight of the fact that the dollar is being supported by foreign cbs, who will run like hell when the gig is up. if you want to trade this thing and pick up nickels have at it. but, experience has shown me in bull markets , when the momo starts, one always pays higher for what he has sold. patience, no debt and no margin. seasonally the doldrums should be ending in the next couple of weeks. surprises will be on the upside. dharma

huff ... puff ... double top now ...


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHUI&t=5d

... tchoo tchoo ...

looks like a breakout to me

I'm a believer.

XAU:

Powerful 3rd of 3rd.

If this impilse ends above 95.10, the count will change.

Between clients and a late day court appearance, here's my best guess at the new, bullish count.

This is crazy, it just keeps going.

Thanks for the count bearvest. How one would count that wave 1 & 2 (assuming this was the beginning of 3) was pretty mistifying to me. I think your count looks the most reasonable. The 5 of 1 looks pretty wierd to me, but there is no way around that.

I cant remember a day when the HUI was up more than 10 points.

It is very likely that the SKI system will give a 92-96 buy signal (that is 'on the path') mid next week. I believe that would be a 'ski true bull market' signal.

All that would have to happen is for prices to not collapse.