What a way to start a September... Hurricane Katrina devestation, strong handed energy players moving crude above $70 and gasoline at the pump pinching the pocketbook. One month easing off on the stock market... and gold/silver getting dumped by weak hands.

and I live behind a waterfall.... at the end of a rainbow... with a pot of gold...

I kinda would have liked August to absorb higher on HUI. Some stocks did and others not.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125539038.png

Glad you came back.... to visit Kookville

Feargreed dude nails the XAU low with his 89 line
http://www.feargreed.com/showgraph2.php

and Ike updates his outlook on gold
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/iossif83105.pdf

ABX on a pullback to the creek in the 25.50 area can probably revisit the 28 area...

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125540235.png

Ahh, new thread. The cup runneth over...

U.S. Peso - Daily Chart

I'll be streaming in charts over the next few hours.

Best,

The CoinGuy

I was going to make my song for the day, "What a Difference a Day Makes", as the stupid thing is on an endless loop in my head and at any moment I could start singing aloud and you know what that leads to. No, not an appearance on Valhalla Idiot but an immediate and devastating caning of the PMS suctor. So in order to forestall this and in support of Charmin's decision to go LARGE on the Digger the song for the day will be, "The Last Train to Kooksville" by the Rallee Monkees. The train is now leaving from track 79 with stops in Silver City, DogPatch (of course) and Kooooooooookamunga.

(Okay wise guys, why track 79?)

What happened to Gold Majestic? Holiday?

As an aside I used to live in Cooksville which is now incorporated into Missisauga which is arguably the most middle class place on the face of the earth. A couple of decades back a chlorine filled rail car derailed in the city and 250,000 people were evacuated .... without loss of life .... or injury .... or personal property damage ... or looting. (For those of you who don't know Missisauga is part of the Toronto Megalopolis.)

Your hand must indeed be unsteady for how can the cup overfloweth when tis yet butt half full?

I will switch back to the ever smiling DorAss the Fish from the sombre FlorAss the Dog on confirmation of an uptrend. Till then our mood will remained mooted.

CoinGuy,

Many thanks for sharing your charts with us.
It happens quite frequently that I don't find time to read Stool's Gold (and your posts) for several days.
Then, when I get around to it, the links to your charts occasionally turn out to be dead (probably because the files have been deleted).
So, is there a way for you to leave the files on the server for a few days after posting them here?
I would appreciate it very much.

OldMan

Well let me know when DorAss and FlorAss bring back ThorAss, and I'll drop back in.

,

TCG

Yes, what a difference a day makes. Down $21K last three days, up $28K today. Go figure.

Actually, thanks for that link to Everbank TFH, was looking for a way to get invested in Canadian currency. Will check it out.

I give up on guessing direction, but I gotta get real positive if silver starts to move up again.

Love the Kookville thread Charmin.

No need! ThorAss is omniviscient and omnipotent, DorAss is ethereal and only FlorAss is corporeal.

Passed through Missasauga many times with the kid on the way to hockey tournaments.

NICE ... and I'm not surprised as the HUI engulfed 5 full days taking us back to where we were late on Tuesday the 23rd. Another couple days like that and we be back to making new highs (above 220). Not that it is going to happen but we can butt dream.

..and it is where I played my first hockey game. (we're talking ice hockey, right?) It was in a town that was then called Port Credit, (I kid you not), if memory serves correctly.

dag nabbit... I think windows XP blows away my lists in stockshare charting program.... oh well, guess I need to keep a copy.... every day

I can do that confluence thing too.. like feargreed dude... probably not with as much confidence... but I can.. on HUI..

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125547679.png

BlunderBuss

Not Gold Bullish:

From:

FOUR SLIPPERY REASONS
by Randolph Buss
Der Invest Informant
August 31, 2005

Excerpt:



...which is sort of the reason I would advise keeping a pretty tight leash on any long-eared Golden Retreiver puppies you may own. Maybe it was a shakeout and the Buss is wrong or maybe it was short covering and the Buss is right. Anyway, I try to avoid jumping in front of moving Busses.

One robin does not a spring make--one snowflake does not a winter make--and one day does not a bull market in the P.M.'s make.

The charts are the 60 minutes on XAU and NEM.

Both show a motive wave down over the last 2 weeks. On XAU, it's a beginning diagonal. On NEM, it's a clear impulse.

Action over Tuesday and Wednesday show an impulse up on XAU, but an overlapping pattern on NEM. Both are very consistent with wave "a" of a corrective abc zig-zag. In neither case has 38.2% retracement been reached.

We should trend higher in this abc correction, over the next week or so.

If you must enter long, wave iv of the impulse up in the a wave is a natural support zone. On NEM this is around 39.15 and is also the re-test zone on the blue rising upper trendline. On XAU, it would be around 94.65.

Because we have just entered a new wave structure, fib levels are our primary guidance until we can count the subdivisions.

I've marked the 61.8% retracement levels in blue. They aren't targets, but are warning levels which, if overlapped, will discredit the count.

Of course ice.

Imagine how nasty this guy would have been on an 18" mound. Flashes of the old Randy last nite.

Another look at the Buck.

I will buy on weakness. Looks to be bottoming and turning up. This was a fakeout decline below support unless proven otherwise I think. I would like to see expanding volume on these up moves.

gold up silver up.....

silver... ADEN!.... watch the 6.92-6.96 area http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125577785.png

silver lagging gold though

and at some ice....

Looks like the commercials might be coughing up a fuzzball this morning. Good, the dirty bastards deserve a good beating.

Thorster - looks like you made a timely entry yesterday.

My hats off to you guys that can trade this monster. The mother of all whopsaws. This might turn out to be one of those three white candle up moves. Or not.

Betting they covered. The bastids I mean.

RGLD hits monthly creek in the 25 area

earlier...

Thank you but not as good as those brave souls who bought the day before. Now that would have taken cajones of steel.

by tomorrow we could have a weekkly spring on silver above 6.90 ice

supply line at 6.96 area

SHAKEOUT...!

Encouraging nest paw?!

3 soldiers would likely put us above 220. ST Hooey screaming higher. LT EMAs have already crossed although we will have to wait for today's close. MACD looks like it won't cross today. Guess she needs the kindness of 1 more tall white soldier.

Sinclair did say the volatility would start to increase.

TFH - someone over at GE said Murphy reported something like 40K contracts were taken off the books yesterday. Maybe the commercials are being forced to take off some more today?
Bottom line: Somebeody big is either buying or covering.

I can't even imagine what it felt like in 1980 when there were $50 swings per day in the POG. Scary stuff unless you were on the right side of things. Russell said he couldn't sleep at night and ended up selling at around $660.

I celebrated the recent gold smackdown by picking up a few gold pieces on fleaBay.

(2) 1922 Swiss Helvetia 20 Francs
1902 British Sovereign
1975 $100 Cook Islands
1976 $100 Cook Islands

Thanks Al & friends for the opportunity.

I think I puked and stepped in it. Put the brake on this ok?

Yeah, that would have been the traders dream day. Today is just as big so far in my portfolio though - so you gotta be coining.

Hadjin - Feels kinda nice for a change eh?
Maybe we'll be okay after all.

Just 2 days ago I emotionally capitulated.. What a great fade I was..

What a classic example; just another one..

Thanks Habits...

Me too, for probably the tenth time. Patience has been very difficult. Let's hope it is rewarding.

Charmin - I guess we get to see what is beyond GG at $18.50.

WOW. +$10!
Dollar fell off a cliff.

yup.... but the dollar has some support in the 86.70 area so watch...here

we have a GG upthrust beyond the creek... if it's real it could continue...but it's monthly resistance...

RGLD also at some resistance area... 25 area...

Weekly spring on silver by tomorrow..

what is interesting was the pullback didn't really show supply..sure a pullback.. because of fundies bailing out of gold/silver....

weak hands/strong hands

ADEN!

right now GG is a probe of that 18.50 area.... for now...

I would probably expect some absorption higher on GG.... then a retest of the creek in the 18.50 area

unless supply enters here within days

At the time amsterdam exchange had gold options
I remember buying at 70 dollar an option ( only 4 for a long shot )
and selling them from a pay phone in spain for 1100 dollars a piece
and not even buying a bottle of fake spanish champaign

I rode stilfontein from 68 to a brand new BMW 323 in I think six months time
That is about 1471%

I would NOT mind this happening again

Jimmy has a beauty... TRE....

well, dusts himself off, finally made it over from last months thread!
coin guy nice chart of the us peso. upside down cup and handle=lob!!!!
a recount-gold makes a large pennant , has an upside breakout, then a successful backtest. the commercials put on their largest short positon and the metal rockets out of 428low. if you were wonderin how the hell are goin to get to 484(pennant projection) ask the commercials, they are about to cover their short positions. rats jumpin ship. could this be wave 3????? you bet. nobody believes the metal can go higher. couple of weeks worth of shorts are now under water. buckle up. dharma

Well I'll just say up front I'm happy but I'm trying to be cool and unemotional no matter what happens. I think this is a mark of trading maturity for after all this is a job, this investing lark, but one that I hope we all can and do enjoy.

I'd just like to visit the comments I made the day before yesterday, which suddenly seems like such a long time ago. After a very long diatribe on models which I will revisit briefly I wrote the timing as follows:

From Aug 31 2005, After the close.


Well one would have to say I was reading the goat entrails as pretty negative yet yesterday (less than a day later and what a difference a day makes ) I was confidently buying with both hands. Why, one might ask. Why, indeed! It's all about the model. As I stated in my diatribe, my model is conditional and non-predictive. So although I was giving all the reasons why I wanted to be in cash and laid out my expectations for lower numbers ahead, it was only the positional interpretation and not the prognostication that mattered. I DO NOT ACT ON MY PREDICTIONS. They are just for fun and to give myself a mental construct with which to look ahead to what MIGHT happen. But let's face it odds are they WON'T happen.
Anyway, so this is why that when the CONDITIONS had changed so dramatically in only a few hours of trading, I could also go with the flow (and luckily I was awake to do so.) And having the model takes much of the guesswork and emotional baggage out and replaces it with confidence and levelheadedness. I don't feel like I made a really good move yesterday. It's more like, on one hand I now have increased confidence in the model, although I was already pretty happy with it and on the other hand, that when it came down to the crunch I executed unemotionally (well nearly so ).

My model, at present is averaging 8.7% per trade and has made 35 closed long trades in nearly 5 years which averages out to more than 1 trade every 2 months. The duration of the trades (in calendar days) was from 1 to 119 days. Interestingly it was the very first trade that was the longest (almost 4 months.) In the last 2 years the average trade has fallen from 13.2% to 8.7% and not because it is losing money, but as a result of the tough trading range conditions, it has been making trades with lower percentage gains. But, of course, it doesn't predict whether this will continue or not. It just continues in and out and waits patiently for the returns to come. The only decision I need make, other than the fiddly ones at the turns which account for a percent or so here and there, are whether to stick with the suctor and the model that goes with it. I believe that even during hard times the model will make money, it's just a question of whether there would be easier pickings elsewhere. At the moment, tough as things are, I don't see any better place to be, than here struggling with the vagarities of the PMS suctor.
The model has gone through some tough times, the longest being Mar to Aug last year (and no doubt it would have been tough for most of the 20 years from 1980 to 2000.) and the worst being July to Dec '01. Yet the losses or flats have been more than compensated by the large gains made in the other times, the good times. And to give you a range, the worst trades were -3.5% and there were 3 of these in '01 and '02 and the best was in the first half of '02 when a 21.8% gain in 3 months was followed after a ten day break (buying in higher I might add) by a 58.5% gain. That's a 93% gain in 6 months. That will cover an awful lot of -4%s. I'd also like to add that these numbers include provisions for slippage and commission.
The model also is easily beating a buy and hold strategy. As of 23/8/05 (date of my last SELL) a B&H would have netted 166.8 HooeyPoints from the first signal at 40.1 on Nov 24,2000. This is an increase of 416%. Not bad. However, with the Hooey timer and its 35 trades, one would have netted 361.8 points which is just over 900%.

"So I guess I'm going to stay with him awhile."

A couple of songs.

For the embattled folk of NoLa I give, Jimmy Driftwood's, The Battle of New Orleans.

Battle Of New Orleans



In 1814 we took a little trip
Along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississipp'
We took a little bacon and we took a little beans
And we caught the bloody British in the town of New Orleans

We fired our guns and the British kept a coming
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they began to running
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

We looked down the river and we seen the British come
And there must have been a hundred of them beating on the drums
They stepped so high and they made their bugles ring
We stood behind our cotton bales and didn't say a thing

Old Hickory said we could take 'em by suprise
If we didn't fire a musket 'til we looked 'em in the eyes
We held our fire 'til we seen their faces well
We opened up our squirrel guns and really gave 'em

Well they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes where the rabbits couldn't go
They ran so fast the hounds couldn't catch 'em
On down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

We fired our cannon 'til the barrel melted down
Then we grabbed an alligator and we fought another round
We filled his head with cannonballs and powdered his behind
And when we touched the powder off the gator lost his mind

and let's hope that some time in the future they'll be "Walking On Sunshine"
(by Katrina and the Waves.)

...and for SKI, who hangs out on GE, I give ...

Artist: Toto
Song: Hold the line
Album: Toto

It's not in the way that you hold me
it's not in the way you say you care
It's not in the way you've been treating my friends
It's not in the way that you stayed till the end
It's not in the way you look or the things that you say that you'll do

Hold the line, love isn't always on time, oh oh oh
Hold the line, love isn't always on time, oh oh oh

It's not in the words that you told me, girl
It's not in the way you say you're mine
It's not in the way that you came back to me
It's not in the way that your love set me free
It's not in the way you look or the things that you say that you'll do

Hold the line, love isn't always on time, oh oh oh
Hold the line, love isn't always on time, oh oh oh

It's not in the words that you told me
It's not in the way you say you're mine
It's not in the way that you came back to me
It's not in the way that your love set me free
It's not in the way you look or the things that you say that you'll do

Hold the line, love isn't always on time oh oh oh
Hold the line, love isn't always on the time
Love isn't always on time

Hold the line, love isn't always on time
Love isn't always, love isn't always on time
Hold the line, love isn't always on time
Love isn't always on time
Love isn't always on time
Love isn't always on time oh oh oh

thor's version of Kern singing in the car. Sell the kids Mortimer.

I don't know how kooky you are, but I got to tell you that the cause being built up here is so huge compared to the consolidation that occured in 2002/2003 that it pales in comparison.

As we assult the 240 area... I believe the backup to the creek in May is quite possibly the last backup to occur before we continue on.... to 380!

HUI chart

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125622002.png

Speaking of Kern, about the SKI system:

SKI system itself is a true indicator.

Jeff Kern's emotions are a contrary indicator.

He bailed at the low when his system said strong buy. Wonder where he will buy back in. Trust the system.