Welcome to CT 2006!

2005 ended up with a CT 10.9% gain, a triple over the buy and hold return of 3.3%
on the QQQQ.
System trading depends on scoring big winners while keeping loosers small.
Even in last years choppy sideways market we managed to pull some profits.
Hopefully 2006 will provide some better behavior and trend persistance to allow us to score some big ones for a change.


CT Historic Trade Tables and Performance {Updated 1-6-2006}

Current signals:

CT = CASH
HOM = BUY

Long term trend (HOM) continues to favor the long side but this is a difficult market and CT detects too much risk to try a ST stab at it.

Hank


Next : Gazing into my crystal ball

Hanky's 2006 crystal ball:

The obvious 4-year cycle black hole sits at the end of this year and is currently in it's downphase. Obviously we are experiencing extreme right translation.
The only other static cycle I follow, 13.7 month cycle, peaks in May.
Currently all my long term and intermediate term indicators are pointing upwards(HOM,RAFF,MACO). SP looks bound to break 1300.
So this year (just as last year and I was way off ) I will be looking for a longer term top in March to May timeframe...then a decline into the 4-year trough
in Oct-Nov. I no longer expect it to be a very severe decline and think that the next 4 year cycle up phase could carry us to prior high in the SP, new highs on the Dow, and Nas will maybe get back to the .50 of it's all time high.
I continue to favor commodities, expecially precious metals and energy.
Please visit my HUI trading link, gold is on the move and this will be a very good year: Hanky's HUI
I think the energy sector will continue to outperform although currently it is in a longer term consolidation and not likely to have a real good year overall.
Well, that's it nothing earth shattering and many other market mavens seem to have the same crystal ball this year...don't know if that's good or bad.
As always...time will tell.

Best Regards,

Hank

Indicators have turned very ugly in this so far short downturn.

CT remains in CASH
HOM barely on BUY yet.

I definitely would not be long anything other than mining and energy here.

We could get a short signal if HOM turns down.
In such an event I would also be asserting an important top was made in January and the short side will be favored into fall.

Hank

Great thread Hank...
I have a sell signal on the Q's....

I gotta change my avitar....its scary

Force Index Super Spike...Great indicator when in a bull market, but if we are entering da bear then this can and will go much lower. It basically is all about the spike. I will update it and we shall see if indeed it is one.

Weekend Update:

CT = CASH

HOM = BUY

Market staged another miraculous resurrection and HOM never flipped to sell.
CT still not letting buy into this.
So no change...sitting on our hands...well not really...having a supertrade with
our HUI FCS system and don't really give a crap about the extremely overvalued GOOGLE-manic side show.

Hank

This comming week seems to hold the key of what trend we will follow, IMO.

I still have the weekly pointing to the down side, but with a net up week for the Q's, the trend shall say time to get long....this week looms large!

Heres an update of the Q's force index "super spike". Last Friday gave us the spike...it did what it was suposed to do in a bull market. They only caveat is that if this indeed is some kinda top then this indicator can go much lower.

Strong resistance tagged precisely on the 11th...looking for a top but so far
HOM is not indicating it as such...yet

Weekend Update:

CT = CASH
HOM = BUY

Yawn

Still looking for HOM to turn down to confirm a Jan top but not so far.
Bond 40 week cycle about topped out...sharp downturn in equities and
flight to safety in bonds when this thing turns??? Who knows.
Financials again looking very sickly but they have had many sudden
re-erections the past few years. And what's this GOOG, under 400?


Staying out of this mess and sticking to easy money in the "real" bull.

Hank

I have put up a web page with my CT and FCS gold fund signals:

My Webpage

I will keep posting them here too.

Hank

CT issues a BUY signal 2/6/2006.

We will be opening a long position in QQQQ at tomorrow's open.

Hank

Thanks for the updates, Hank. Nice web page too...

Got a buy signal on the Q's this morning..need to close at a buy to trigger for me. Still a sell on the weeklies so I am treating these as just Dover Sole bounces in a downtrend for now. Time to be nimble.

Weekly stuff may not work

IMHO

Well all I can do is show you what my system has done in the past. Hopefully you can use it as confirmation with your own. I am sure there may be others on the web that charge quite a bit that do better some years,
but overall I think its hard to beat for the price!

CT Weekend Update:



CT remains on BUY [since 1-6-06]
HOM remains on BUY

We have been long QQQQ from 40.89 since Mondays signal to enter.
Interesting week and although price has not yet confirmed our signal,
my indicators have built tremendous strength this week. I really think
we are going to get a strong move up next week.

Even common lower panel oscillators...take your pick... are all showing a bullish divergence especially with todays low.
My own HI-5 has been showing a massive bullish divergence over this whole decline the past few weeks and is part of the reason we got the buy signal.
HOpefully this starts moving next week and we may add once it gets rolling.
OK, getting too confident here...God forbid something horrible happens at the
winter olympics...I always feel much more unease going long because of all
the crazy crap going on out there in the world nowadays. Much rather be
short but gotta take what the market gives.

Hank

I went long the next day. Thanks for the great work and the calls. You put your ass right on the line with your calls and I do like it. Keep it up and I hope your call is right, also, cause I am with you.

THANKS

DONOTKNOWSHIT

Well, right back to start again at 40.90...crazy
Still holding and signals remain on BUY!

Here is the HI-5 with double bullish divergence in place. It just signaled its
own individual BUY signal today. Huge supportive CV at 1638 retested on
yesterday's low.

Hank

Weekend Update:


CT = BUY
HOM = BUY

Long QQQQ and up 0.8% and holding.
Disappointing week and our ST indicators have softened....need to watch this
closely for a potential exit signal next week.
Markets closed Monday.
BKX is confirming this move so far which is good.

Hank

Got the buy signal at the close on Monday 2/13. Still looking for the weekly to go on the buy side. This shortened week looks to be pivotal.

CT still on a BUY.
Our QQQQ's still slightly in the black.
What a ho hum deal this trade has been...time this market make up its
fricken mind and do something but still favoring some kind of pop to the upside
here and staying long. Need a nice long candle up through that 50 day SMA!

Hank

Finally got a confirmed buy on the Q's on Thursday's (2/23) close. Just about as weak of a buy signal that can be. I added to my position but I have one foot out the door ready to switch sides if need be.

This should have legs now

Preliminary sell signal on the Q's triggered at the close which translates to exit my longs Wed. morning.
Will wait for confirm to go short...or back long again.
Blame it on the GOOG

yeah yesterday (Tues) stunk...CT still in it but very close to sell.
Thanks for sharing your signals !

Hank

Whipsaw city..

Weekend Update:

CT = BUY
HOM =- BUY


This is the dullest trade I think I can ever remember...in it a month and only up a lousy 1% I hate being on the edge so long and just wish I was out but gotta stick with the plan.

Hank

Thanks for the update Hank,


Heres what I have right now:
Naz Weekly=sell/neutral
Daily=preliminary sell

S&P Weekly=sell/neutral
Daily =preliminary sell

Dow Weekly=sell
Daily=sell
Preliminary signals simply mean that I have yet to get a confirmed signal, so smaller positions are required...I usually trade a preliminary signal but with much more caution when it is going against the weekly trend. Right now my weekly is on a sell signal but showing signs of countertrend strength in the Naz and S&P.
So as it stands right now, I'll be looking to enter a position on the short side come Monday. I will then add to this position if I get a confirmed signal or bail if the signals change.

Since 2/14 I had a countertrend buy on the Q's and was flushed out with last weeks action.

Good Luck to All...

Are we still on hold on the long side, on our QQQQ????

Yes, still long QQQQ and almost right where I entered over a month ago

CT remains on BUY!

HANK

When I plug the indicies in.... the weeklies keep on quietly creeping up to a buy signal...still not there yet. The dailies on all three (Naz., S&P, Dow) are still on a weak sell and look to be slowing down. It wouldn't take much to change the signals here (up or down)...
As it is right now, the Dow is showing the most strength and could turn to a buy soon....

Took profits on the short position and if things start ticking up...especially the weekly, I'll soon be in on the long side.

Trade well....

Are your weeklys at a buy yet??

Thanks

Naz Weekly = weak sell..very close to a buy, but not there yet.
Naz Daily=buy as of close 3/14

S&P Weekly=buy
S&P Daily=buy as of 3/14

Industrials Weekly=weak buy
Industrials Daily=buy

Weekend Update:

CT remains on BUY
HOM remains on BUY

We continue to hold our QQQQ long position from 40.89 and now up
on it @ 1%
I don't like to look at the chart because it looks scary pattern wise but there is some TL support not too far below if this thing breaks down all of a sudden.
Not feeling too good about this trade compared to the last successful trade we had
where the market remained strong all the way up and then puked.
Current readings have us tenuously long.

Hank

Even though CT remains on a very tenous buy signal I am going to
sell 1/2 QQQQ here for a slight 1% gain as long as I get a fairly decent fill...
Nas futures way down...
I just have a really bad feeling about things here...may add it on again
hopefully lower and when things hopefully look better...

So just lightening up on instinct...
watch it turn around and all put in new highs today

One ratty mess of risk, good luck out there.

HANK

Weekend Update:

CT = BUY
HOM = BUY

No Changes in signals and all remain on weak long status as the market continues to frustrate. Hoping at least for some exitement in PM and we are now
long UNWPX. Continue to hold our QQQQ position sized down and up 2.2%

Seasonal strength goes to May 1 so hopefully that will keep us in the black on
this trade but I continue to not like what I see, will post if that changes and
I add back up on the position.

Hank

CT = BUY
HOM = BUY

Our QQQQ position now up only about 3% after over 3 months holding, we did
reduce our usual amount to 50% and continue to be very cautious on this trade.
This is by far one of the longest trades in the systems history and with the smallest return (thus far) My indicators continue to remain bullish but often dipping extremely close to sells. Currently 3 of 5 components are positive, the other 2 are negative. Last Fall's rally had all 5 remaining strong throughout and then suddenly collapsing and we had a "comfortable" trade with nice 8% gain.
This one has been scary with all along only 3 positive and even they treading
just above sell. On a fundamental basis I see worrisome signs with interest rates
solidly climbing and now above 5% A much more critical level is at 5.5%
The housing market is obviously rapidly changing to a buyers market in most
regions and already prices are under pressure. Also I am becoming more confident commodities are going to continue their strength with oil and gold moving even higher. The USD looks very vulnerable to a fairly big dump this year. So have I just outlined a wall of worry that the market will continue to climb or are we putting in another gigantic topping process? Time will tell but for now I remain long in Nas100, gold and oil; QQQQ and UNWPX and OIH.

HAPPY EASTER!

Hank

Thanks Hank, I am with you.

Weekend Update:

CT = BUY
HOM = BUY

Our QQQQ position still up @3%

Indicators now 4 of 5 positive but all very weak...
Fragile market, still keeping with 50% position size...

Haven't posted my SP GANN chart for a while, here it is and we are testing
at the 2/3 one-half square of the high level. LTCO still on BUY. RAFF Market
Space still on LT BUY. We continue to buck the 4 year cycle down phase.
Silly to be bearish but at a fundamental level there are forces building against
this cyclical bull.

Staying long QQQQ, only will assume the full position if all 5 go positive and start picking up strength.

HANK

Thanks for the update Hank.....this is one crazy market.......I got a sell signal on the Naz last week....I'm short as of Thursday am....but the way things have been going, I can see my new signal changing soon.

Out of short for now...

Long Q's at am ...swing play.

CubeTrader Alert:

ADDING BACK TO ORIGINAL FULL LONG POSITION AT OPEN TODAY.

CT = BUY
HOM = BUY

All indicators have significantly improved with all 5 positive so diving in, hope
the pool isn't empty

HANK

When is this monster going to take a decent correction?

THE PIGMEN DRAINED THE POOL WHILE I WAS IN MID-DIVE
TODAY WAS AN EXTREME CHANGE OF CHARACTER.

The HOM has been gradually creeping downward to a SELL despite the shorter term indicators turning up sharply earlier this week.

By the close TODAY the HOM has issued a LT SELL signal for the open tomorrow 5-12-06 The HOM has been on buy status since last October and has about a 5% gain to show for it.

We only trade in the direction of the HOM therefore
CT switches to CASH

Provided we get a reasonable fill at the open tomorrow, the actual gain for this CT trade would be 2.2% or 0.9 points assuming the usual constant position size during each trade.
I entered the original position at QQQQ 39.87. However I cut the position later in half at about the same price and then went back to full position at 42.1 and of course we got smacked on that the past few days so I have only a very negligible profit remaining now BUT at least no loss.

I was still very apprehensive when I added back on because of the marginal status of the HOM but all the ST indicators shot up to there highest readings in months and I expected the start of a turn around but the past 2 days changed it all.
As I have mentioned this has been the longest CT trade in the systems history
(1-6-06 to 5-12-06 ) and with only a puny gain to show for it. Thus far this year has been worse than last year which was the worst one of all the systems history!
THIS MARKET JUST TOTALLY SUCKS and has been virtually UNTRADABLE except for only energy and commodity related sectors.

So Black Prince...I am looking for a top here now we go down into the Fall 4-year cycle low.(The NDX actually topped in JAN if this is indeed a major IT top) and maybe at least we can finally get a tradable downtrend to catch.

So again the current signals at the open 5-12-06 are:

CT = CASH
HOM = SELL


Good Luck...It sure ain't easy anymore,

HANK

I just want to clarify that I am not "calling" a 4 year cycle top YET.
Just that this is the first time I have seen my indicators show the
potential for a more sustained sell off since last OCT when the HOM really whipsawed quickly from sell to buy. The HOM sell earlier last year was also one that I more strongly thought was a potential 4-yr cycle top. I was curious and commented that if that was the TOP it would confirm that we were in a vicious secular bear market since there was little bullish translation even with the gargantuon effort of the FED this last cycle. Anyway that did not happen and it is why I am still thinking we may not have too bad a decline(not take out 2002 lows by any means) and then another good cyclical bull late 2006-2008.
So currently a lot more has to happen technically for me to begin to claim the top is in.
Mr. Bressart has compiled a lot of stats on the 4-year cycle and one that
troubled me last year when evidence began to build for a top early in the year
was that the majority of tops occur within 8 months of the bottom, IOW, strong right (bullish) translation has existed in bull AND bear markets. The primary skew instigator being the FED as it pours on to stimulate us out of 4 yr cycle bottoms that usually are closely accompanied by recessions.
Bottoms are extremely consistant and always have happened OCT-NOV every 4 years.
SO at least now we are statistically in the very high probability topping window timewise.

HANK

We still are on very long term BUY signals here:

Thanks for the update, Hank.

The system I use to trade by is very short term oriented. I rarely trade a position for more than a few days to a week at best. On Friday, I had some weak buy signals for the Q's in the afternoon. Too weak to trade but if they turn up early next week I'll jump in for a bounce trade.

Longer term its anyones guess...but I do favor your senario.

TODAY 5-18-2006 my VLT(very long term) indicator for the SP500 issued a SELL signal after a long run on BUY since 3-21-2003

This is quickly turning into the MOST BEARISH technical scenario I have witnessed since the 2000 big top.
Still the ST indicators are keeping me out due to the potential for a sharp Dover Sole bounce...I now am quite certain there will be some good short trades between now and October and the 1987 1x1 would be the first downside target (1200)
Just need to be patient and let the system tell me when the ST probabilities are favorable.

HANK

HOM signaled a BUY today.
CT signaled a BUY today.

Will be placing long QQQQ order at open with positive futures otherwise will wait 30-60 minutes if futures are down...

HANK

Thanks hank....Look to be in lock step..I got a prelim buy for the Q's on 5/30 with a confirm on 5/31. Looks good for now...lets see how far it can run.