"The mining shares really put in a stellar day today. The HUI set a high of 349.48 before settling at 342.43, up an incredible 8.91 on the day. For the month of January, the HUI put on a staggering 65.53 points! That is a 23.7% gain in one month alone!

The XAU closed up an equally impressing 4.51 on the day at 154.19 after setting a high of 156.47. It closed up a whopping 26.16 points for the month of January for a gain of 22.2%. Yikes!

The big news of the day, if it really was big as far as anyone was really concerned, is that the Fed raised the benchmark Fed Funds rate by another 25 basis points bringing it to 4.5%. "
Tuesday, January 31, 2006, 7:42:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Dan Norcini

XAU reaches old highs going back to 1987.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1138762857.png

That is a good read by Dan N. at JS's site today. Talks about a consolidation pattern is as good as a correction or spike down. The mental picture I get is a stairstep pattern over the long term.
Link

I should remain consistant and always think lower at the beginning of a month.. before moving on up to $800

that way it always goes up first.. lol

how about retesting demand to 540

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1138768634.png

Danger Zone:

The Gold/XAU indicator has reached extreme levels.

It's a warning signal that the re-synchronization may require a corrective decline in both the metal and the index price.

Charts:

Someone may be able to overlay these charts.

The initial decline on the index seems to be very impulsive (and scary).

While it is quite possible we reached a high of some significance today, I have chosen to hold all positions through any decline. We reached 10 Silver. We have doubled off the May lows in the XAU. We have gone up by a factor of 10 off the HUI bottom. Cramer. On second thought... Nah.

Lets just call a top here and see if it comes to pass... lol

anyway.. with HUI meeting 345 area.. XAU hitting monthly tops going back to 1987.. gold at 570 and silver at 10

just maybe.. supply will enter.. not evident yet though.. and if it did.. probably things will move sideways in a trading range anyway...

the 3:1 leverage in silver worked anyway...

silver went up like 12% and silver stocks up 30%

I'm getting to wonder about a distribution phase after peaking in the sp500 market now.. and gold stocks been trading like stocks.. even when gold got shook out..

so there ya go.. lol

I think the chance is greater than 50% that yesterday marked an intermetiate term high.

BV, those are some charts that Hamilton follows quite closely as does Saville if I remember correctly. They definitely look ominous.

The difference this time may be the demand picture. That being said a correction is prolly in order, the question is how deep and how long?

If it is a vicious spike down over a week or so I'm going to start adding, if it is a slow bleed, then sidelines for awhile.

Then again, it could stay overbought a while longer or consolidate as Norcini says to correct the overbought situation.

If we do correct, I think the bigger names take the brunt.

One thing though, there has been serious volume coming in across the board in these stocks. I'll be watching the volumes on any decline very closely.

One more macro note. Obviously, the U.S. economy is slowing. The fact that the Fed is saying we're just about done, could give a temporary boost to markets but I kinda doubt it.

I would think the markets read this as "recession coming". I've noticed the 2 year and the 10 yr are back to the same yield after the 10 year was mildly higher for a few days. I expect the 10 year will invert in the next week or two.

Feb. might not be so good for the broads or the dollar. JMHO.

According to Mauldin - avg. market declines during recessions are 43%

I wouldn't call anything unless I saw silver break back under the 9.20 area...

8.50 would be a gift probably never to be seen again..

Bearvest,

Good observation on Gold/XAU but I believe we are entering a "wonder to behold" bull market here and just as PE ratios made no difference in the 90's tech boom, the mining shares may substantially decouple from POG as the crowd piles in.

Here is another ratio chart that to me has very interesting implications.
Gold:Industrial Metals
This latest rally in gold has not even been keeping pace with the inflation of
industrial metals! The first run up form 2000-2003 it did outperform them indicating in my opinion a "currency and safety premium" being priced in as well as inflationary run up. Could we still be in for the grand third of a third where this again becomes added into buyers motivations.

Gold:SP another important one to watch for the mo mo crowd (Cramer et al)
starts piling in...just starting to eeeek out. Lately I am seeing more reason the broads may be putting in a top here but not quite ready to try calling it again,
my HOM indicator is still on a buy and has a great track record.

Best to All,
Hank

QQQQ on the daily looks like a head and shoulders..... watch for a neckline break at say 41.00 ish......there was a two week tech rally to start the new year that looks like it has fizzled out......Jan 11 th is the high water mark and the recent rally has come up short of that mark

Looking at a decade chart monthly time frame you will see that 75 % of the time there is a rally from Nov to Jan... a seasonlaity to the tech space.... looks like the tech space has played true to form these past 3 months.

Seasonal trade now is in the WCSB ( Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin)stocks...... Feb to May...

Very courageous
For these uncertain times I am using the constant capital method
I sell shares till I meet again the maximum capital I want in goldshares
Sofar I sold 3 slices and 4 th is due

somehow, i forget to come to the new thread, anyhow,78.23 was the may low on xau. yesterdays high was 156.48 which is almost exactly 2x the low. in 97 the high was 155.87. in 87 the xau got to 157 and change, my guess is we need to do some work in this area to get through it. yesterdays action removed the divergences on the daily charts. watching today/til the 6th for indications as i have turn dates. no more turn dates til march dharma

just caught up on the thread. as for the broads, i am not sure the tops have been put in, although i think 726 is a pivot on the rut. a break of that and i am short. for now i am neutral on the broads. when the market starts down into the 4yr cycle low, then i think the pressure will be too great on the metals/shares. for now, as long as the broads hold up, i think higher highs will be seen by the metals and shares. i am in trading mode. dharma

dharma you might want to watch February 22nd for a possible turn. Two very important turns going back many years occured on that date.

Sell off seems to be targeting 334 - 335

Looks like ABC down is done

Today is pretty encouraging.

Have been adding to this one for the past several months.
Looking better all the time. They have a good team, are on schedule for production later this year and are keeping it within budget.

Aurizon Mines Ltd.: Casa Berardi Gold System Extended Down to 1200 Metres

Link

Awaiting the next heartbreaking GSS earnings release that will again tank the stock.

Going to $20. Close your eyes and click your heels three times.

Initial drops were absorbed.. that is a bull...

GRS.. nice today.. must be some good news still hanging around these ranks..

SLW.. absorbing the sales
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1138843068.png

I like that AB.. "Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin stocks" .. is that like bottom of the bowl trading..

just kidding... but if your inclined to enlighten us on some quality research into the bowels of Canadian resources... or provide some links to keep us abreast of these basin resources... we'd be more than happy to enlighten our minds beyond the walls of this web space...

Just pulled this outta my bag of links. Here are the ones he gave out last time....

ab's WCSB names

Ut oh. POG alive and well tonight. Silver not far behind . We are in amazing times.

Yeah... amazing enough that there probably isn't anything in the way of going on up to $800 before someone noticed..

""Pullbacks are expected to bring in willing buyers," said Peter Spina, analyst at GoldSeek.com.

As a result, "a severe correction over the next days is unlikely, with an upward bias remaining," he said, pegging gold within reach of the $580-to-$600 level and silver at $10 an ounce over the short run. "
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=16647

They missed analyst estimates for what, the 7th consecutive quarter? Something like that.

Yeah - their eanings pretty much stink. That being said, we're in a market where the stock could selloff or rally on these earnings.
I saw UBS upgraded on Mon. - also saw some pretty huge volume yesterday, maybe UBS had some shares to unload.
I'll put a stop in on this pig and search the underperformers.

Yesterday was pretty darn impressive, both metal and miners. I'm wondering if CDE and HL days of under $5 might be over.

I noticed the 2 yr. is now yielding 4.58 while the 10 yr. is at 4.56. Expecting that curve to invert even further.
I've been on the East coast for the last 5 weeks, I get up around 4 - 5 a.m, get to see alot different stuff on Crapvision.

They had a guest on yesterday that was predicting gold at $1000 within 24-36 months.
Today another guy said, that China was waaaaay short silver and at some time were going to have to eat their positions. He also said as I think some of you pointed out, that there are more short positions on silver worldwide than than there is silver.
I heard a theory a while back about a back door deal between the U.S. and China - I think from Murphy - that the U.S would hold the gold price down while the China would handle silver. I wonder if China has said "the heck with that"?

Anyway, the Euro guests on Crapvision seem alot more bullish on gold and silver than their U.S. counterparts.

Maybe Charmin has it right. Folks will take notice, when gold hits $800.

If we are to get a major correction if will likely be off of a high made this month. Feb 4 is the 3 yr/ anniversary of the 395 high. There is a turn mid month around the 15th and another coming on the 22nd. I see Market Vane shows bulls in the 90+% range on the metals.It will be interesting to see if SLW and TRE can continue their winning ways from here. Whipsaws are likely. Good luck all.

Coming out of lurkdom...

GLG reports earning on the 13th and I still own the stock. Does anyone think POG will keep creeping up until then?

The premium on CEF has reached 9%. This is high since the inception of GLD. Historically readings of 25% have marked tops. Today could be telling. If we don't rally hard in the miners on higher metals it might be best for traders to dump and stand aside.

WoW ! .. Pal up .90, WTZ up .75, SSRI up $1+

Just when most thought it over.... lessons, lesson, lessons.. I'm taking note.

my take is, we are in major resistance here, so far, the market is not backing away. w my feb 2/6 dates i think we work in this area.,consolidate before a breakout to the upside. pullbacks @this point, like yesterday midday, are buying ops. dharma

Well my 575 target is met
My 31st of Jan deadline is past

Living on borrowed time why not since everybody
else is living on borrowed money

http://www.iradesso.com/i/home.html

www.capp.ca

Hmmm.. wondering if the broads might finally start to crack. Russell down to 724. On the fast track to under 700? S & P going to be able to hold at 1260 again?

Will the miners be able to withstand the downside momo of the broads?

Stopped out of GSS.

habits, if the broads go, 90% of stocks will go down. i doubt the golds/silvers can withstand the sucking down. dharma

I like it when Jason Hommel sends me emails.. about mining stocks.. and it don't matter what metal it is...

Latest is on Moly.. Idaho mines..
http://www.silverstockreport.com/

GSS is wethering the storm well. Good sign.

I am really impressed with GSS today.

They can release bad earnings and the stock no longer goes down (more than intraday). Expectations are extremely low. Bad news is no longer hammering the stock. People were willing to buy the pullback right away, even with the bad earnings report.

The majority of their 3c loss was due to the temporary mine closure back in october.
Of course, that still continues the string of earnings releases that are 'greater than expected loss and an excuse'.

GSS goes green on over 8 million shares traded with the HUI down, bad earnings, after being down 10% at one point.

JS giving people a heads up on silver ETF on his site today. Looks like the setup is leaning towards trading in physical vs. paper.

This is the first time I have heard him mention Silver in such a positive light. I really don't think it matters much one way or the other whether the Silver ETF sees the light of day. It's by far my largest position and think we see at least a 5 bagger in the next ten years. At least.

I sold my TRE and SLW today and bought a load of GSS and more CDE. I think TRE and SLW lag this last leg up. I can see 7.50 CDE and 5.50 for GSS if we go parabolic in the metals in the next few weeks. Ideally I'd like to reload TRE and SLW considerably lower after the inevitable shakeout. As Ageka said we are on borrowed time and this leg could end at any time. TRE is at a very important crossroads short term here.

I put that stop too high on the GSS, shoulda known the boogers were going to take me out then bring it right back. It did act well, so are CDE and HL. CDE the stronger of the two.

My hesitation is with the broad market as Dharma points out, so I've been locking in some profits and adding here and there on miners - this is probably the lowest % I've had in the miners in awhile, and I'm afraid the train may leave the station without me.
OTOH, if the broads go down hard, and these hold up, I'm going to be buying.

Luck all.