The Iran Affect... Silver Demand... What's in the Warehouse... SLV... DBC... GLD... inflation....

DX sinking

Do you have to put the pedal to the metal when you enter traffic going both ways... put your foot into the metals traffic and don't sputter.. if you do.. you'll get hit broadside.. so come along for the ride... it's better than going to the theme park..

Just SHOW ME THE MONEY!

HUI to 414
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1146268088.png

GLD
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1146268310.png

65 pages last month. It's heating up. The easy thing is to be contrary and look for a top. It feels stupid to me to remain long in the face of positive public comment and insanely bullish sentiment figures. It has been the most profitable approach however. I'm glad I just have held tight. I juggled a bit here and there probably should have just stuck to just TRE GG and SLW. At least I still have the TRE. Commercials don't matter anymore but interestingly this is the longest they have been since last September. I think the next vertical resistance after 15 for Silver is 25 but I see 20 being bandied about so that might be where we're headed if Gold can overcome the 680 level. Hang on bugz.

Wndy regualarly posts stocks that do massive blasts into the atmosphere...
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1146273057.png

I'm waiting to see GG and GLG or any number of other gold stocks do just that here...

don't dissapoint me now...

Looks like planti wants the truck to backup real far.. like to the edge of the cliff...and the truck falls into the ravine... before he buys...

I'll give him one month to change his mind... or we get broadsided...

XAU:

Gold is racing ahead with the Miners refusing to play catch-up.

The chart of XAU offers no clue as to the direction of the Miners.

A bear will point out that:

1. There's a very clear impulse up on the charts. Hence, we should be correcting.

2. We have not corrected into the fib zone, despite the clear impulse up. And note its convergence with the open gap.

3. The "sell" signal on the Stochastics has not been negated.

4. The blue triangle could be re-drawn or re-interpreted as a bearish rising wedge.

5. MACD has bearish divergence longer term.

6. We're at historic resistance.

A bull will point out that:

1. The blue ascending triangle, or at least the rising bottoms, is bullish. Its failure to correct into the fib zone means it's a bull flag or pennant.

2. There is no significant short term MACD divergence.

3. Fundamentally, $USD is in a free fall, the twin deficits are snowballing, Ben has capitulated in the face of a strenghtening economy, and internationally, there is sabre-rattling viv-a-viz Iran.

It's all a matter of perception. You can look at it through bullish or bearish eyes. Bear in mind that I'm "Bear"-vest

HUI / XAU

Last weekend I posted that the HUI components had a parabolic on balance volume extreme on April 19th.

My limited research indicated that within 5 to 9 trading days, we'd see a very marginal top, followed by a 10% decline thereafter, in double the time frame.

We're still on track. The marginal new high would be a "b' wave in an irregular flat.

Look for 161-2 XAU early next week, then a correction to 145 by mid-May, if this pattern repeats.

Here's the Elliott look (though some Elliotticians insist that a new all-time high cannot exist within a corrective count):

[quote=Charmin,Apr 28 2006, 08:00 PM]
The Iran Affect... Silver Demand... What's in the Warehouse... SLV... DBC... GLD... inflation....

DX sinking

Do you have to put the pedal to the metal when you enter traffic going both ways... put your foot into the metals traffic and don't sputter.. if you do.. you'll get hit broadside.. so come along for the ride... it's better than going to the theme park..

Just SHOW ME THE MONEY!

---------------------------------------------


Last month, I said the Dollar would tank to 86.00 and hold.

I suggested that the wave count could presage a Dollar rally to 100.00, if that happened.

Let's see if 86.00 holds

Posts:

I note that the cumulative number of posts is frozen. Each new post is not added to the prior number of posts.

If I'm not going to get an advanced degree, I may be forced to abandon my career aspirations as a stock proctologist, and pursue studies in rocket science.

I'll pass on the tuition refund, however. There's a lot of brilliant students and professors here.

bearvest ...you get an Honorary PHD, and even get to Chair a department.

.....my pathetic understanding of Elliott tells me wave 4-5 can't exceed the distance traveled by wave2-3......so, if maybe equal, then your previous chart shows possibly we could move up to 163.5......the action in the indexes is rather underwhelming.........just seems to say we gotta back up a bit......145 would roughly correspond to the 50ema daily, as it continues to rise........sounds quite plausible......
........i expect copper to pullback next week as the LME has increased margin requirements......this is the method used to rape the longs, as they'll have to liquidate positions to stay leveraged........is this in the cards for U.S. metals????

Astrocycle.com over at Snotcharts, Public Charts - has a date high of May 5th. Don't know how he gets an exact date.

There's no doubt Gold and Silver are going higher. The question is will they do it now and will the indices follow.

I'd like to see Silver move to a new high to confirm Gold.

That weekly doji on Silver the previous week perhaps should be considered a cautionary flag.

Charmin - ya start a new monthly thread and what happens? I'm starting to hear whispers of a top.

I think being a contrarian is a losing proposition, only because when I think of contrarianism I think of Price Headley.

BV - I don't have a clue what it takes to be a professor of proctology, but whatever I am here, it snot because of any great wisdom I've imparted on the Gold Stool crowd.
You do alot of hard and valuable work here. 86 is gone and now may prove to be resistance. 100 isn't in the cards for a very long time. Maybe not in our lifetimes. The buck is in very serious trouble. JMHO

sorry to say this, BUTT i have seen all this before. the tip off was the high level consolidation around 600. the market didnt give much ground and down days were punctuated by light volume. is this consolidation finished? i dont know, but i do know when it is we are going 20% higher on the xau/hui. remember the longer gold/silver remains @ high levels, the more the producing miners make. i am a technician, and this is one of those times when, in a parabolic, one has to sit back and let the market make him $$$. dont be overextended as you will make mistakes. if you choose to sell, sell on strength. jesse said , i made the most money by just sitting. well here we are. the back drop is good for gold and thats what will drive it higher. the figures are pure bs. inflation is gaining momo, there is tension in iran/iraq/venezuala etc. and the dollar has confirmed a h&s top.
crouching may 5th is an astrological date which i have posted here for a while. i have been wrong often enough on these dates to know i dont know the direction, and sometimes they are a continuation. the next date is may22.
last month charms had posted a cup or bowl pattern on hui projecting to 420ish, its where i believe we are. sit back enjoy and dont make mistakes. some of these stocks will provide dizzying returns. what we all saw years ago is moving into high gear, and as of now, they havent presented an alternative. printing money is the name of the game. it wasnt nose bleed interest rates that killed the bull of 80. it was that comex changed the game on silver. no buying of contracts. you read that correctly, only selling. end of bull. end of hunts. desperate people do desperate things. the public is starting to awaken. the internet craze is upon us. who will be the jdsu of the gold sector or cmgi? why should valuations matter. its gold fever baby!!!! sorry for the rant! dharma

Just cruising the net for astro info - May 5th Saturn turns direct. I also picked up on a 37.5 day timeframe within an eclipse as being significant March 29 to May 5 is 37.5 days. So let's watch May 5th action.

dharma - doing research on Ketu - South Node and Rahu - North Node.

Do you know or do you have a link that tells me when an eclipse is in Rahu or Ketu? I'm searching the net, the only thing I came up with was this map. Assuming eclipse dates below the equator are Ketu and above Rahu, but could be wrong.

Was March 29th in Rahu or Ketu? It almost looks on the map like March 29, 2006 eclipse (looks like its above equator) is in Rahu North Node. That would explain a lot.

CT I'm no expert but from what I've seen the past few years these dates have not been significant and I wouldn't work my portfolio around them. Just watch what happens is probably best. I've gotten into less than favorable situations trying to make these dates conform to what is really going on in the market.

Well, I've followed several astro people and their turn dates ie day or week timeframes and tend to agree with you. However, their long term projections have been accurate.

I had in the past found that the eclipse dates did coincide with the ups and downs of the Gold and Silver market.

If that last solar eclipse came out of North Node then that would explain the power up move from the end of March.

Exactly two year ago I bought some Silver American eagles for $7.50 or less and today that price has nearly doubled..

you worried that miners are not keeping up to the price of silver huh... well, silver should be $18 today

I expect a real price explosion ... and GG or GLG will rock into outerspace by $6 in one day...

I had to get that off my chest OLD HABITS...

Hey, that's conditioning, sell when you feel good, remember 2004 .

Now the fundamentals are stronger, and I'm still loaded, just considering some margin if Silver retests a support .

Manipulated:

Regarding wave 5's.

There is no rule that wave 5 must be smaller than 3.

Indeed, in commodities, a parabolic 5th is a common phenomenum.

The rule is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.

As a general rule, in an impulse, only one of the motive waves extends.

If it's wave 3, then 5 will often equal wave 1.

However, if 3 and 1 tend to equality, expect an extended 5th wave.

Througout his book, Prechter refers to 5th wave extensions. In chapter 1 he discusses them briefly and draws 2 diagrams of 5th wave extensions (i.e. instances where wave 5 exceeds the value of wave 3).

Here's a free site for simple, but excellent, Elliott instruction:

http://www.elliott-wave-theory.com/elliott1.html#general

So at the very minimum Silver needed to reach a price of $11.71 in this wave 3, or am I not doing this right. I'm just using this as an example for future ref.

Nobody here hopes you are right more than me.

I didn't think the miners move was commensurate with the move in the metals simply because the day before when the metals were down, the miners were down large. All we did Friday was regain what we lost Thursday.

I didn't really look at Friday volumes. There was some obvious short covering in the 20 minutes.
I'd like to see a repeat performance in the miners on Monday with the metals flat or slightly higher. There are still many stocks that have not reached their previous highs, RGLD, NEM, EGO, CDE, etc.
Sinclair looks for 682, but I think at this point predictions are fruitless based on astros, charts, funnymentals or anything for that matter.
We could explode or implode at any time, but for now the momo is up, don't know about tommorrow.

There are alot of miners coming out with earnings in May - that shouldn't hurt.

Charmin - having lived thru some very serious beatings over the past 10 years, I'm always worried about something. I'm not used to the success.

Amazing how 1 year changes everyones outlook, I remember last year at this time seeing charts posted showing the HUI going to 90 or some crap and gold going back to 300. Especially over at gold eagle. That was the greatest shake out of all-time. I don't forget too quickly.

old, i have learned to watch my mind. when i get optomistic and am not looking over my shoulder, trouble is around the corner! so, gold made new highs silver, as of yet, has not. the xau/hui have not made new highs. of course this can still occur, but it has me on my toes. right now, i still think 600 is the floor for gold. this could be a B wave and down for C. or we are impulsing up. dharma

crouching may 5 is jupiter-uranus trine=blow off.
june 19th moons north node 0 over aries. i dont like to talk about financial astrology, while i have been an astrologer for 15years, i have stayed away from it in financial markets until 2 years ago. so i am still very much in the learning process. i will continue to look @ dates, but will not post them. dharma

"i will continue to look @ dates, but will not post them. dharma"

Post away ... I for one, would welcome any considered discussion or potentiality.

Charmin, RGLD gapped from $33.05, it closed Friday @ it's low of $32.20 on lighter volume. Whadda think? Gonna fill that gap?

Here we go again ... ??!!??

MARKET IS OPEN
(Will close in 17 hrs. 6 mins.)

GOLD 04/30/2006 20:22 653.10 654.10 +1.50
+0.23%

SILVER 04/30/2006 20:11 13.77 13.87 +0.26
+1.92%

PLATINUM
04/30/2006 20:12 1,144.00 1154.00 -2.00
-0.17%

PALLADIUM 04/28/2006 13:06 371.00 376.00 0.00
0.00%

Knee jerk reaction in metals again upon open. Let's see if it holds.
Always amazed at the head count here. Very few new faces. This existing group of regulars truly are in on the ground floor. I hope you all get rich(er), ya deserve it.

I absolutely love this board, if only every investment board is like this on the web. Thanks for everyone for contributing.

I've been reading this board for about a month. Trying to slowly get a graps of all the TA, which until recently I thought was BS. A month was enough to convience me to start buying gold Maples, eh. Thank you to all for contributing such a wealth of information.


Looking for an opinion on SPM.V (Canadian silver junior)

SILVER:

Gold up $6.70, Silver up $.31

The good old USD being pressured yet again.

If we do have another gap up day on Monday, I think the miners will be exceptionally strong.

And yes Dharma, I'm looking over my shoulder, maybe that's a good thing.

Groundhog day ??? Gold up $8.20, Silver up .41

MARKET IS OPEN

Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close
GOLD 05/01/2006 02:20 659.80 660.80 +8.20
+1.26%

SILVER 05/01/2006 02:11 13.92 14.02 +0.41
+3.03%

PLATINUM
05/01/2006 02:24 1,160.00 1170.00 +14.00
+1.22%

PALLADIUM 05/01/2006 02:09 372.00 378.00 +1.00
+0.27%

USGL starting the day up .65

Morning everyone..

Morning - I want to see this hold and the big caps beside GG make some new highs and really bust out.

The buck is is freefall mode. The broad market is a joke, goes up as USD loses its' worth.

Hopefully this news will give PMU a kick in the butt.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060501/0126118.html

Hope we're not gapping and crapping today.

I thought Norcini/Sinclair mentioned 85.5 as support on the buck, maybe it was 85 even.

WoW .. VGZ up .95 on over 80K vol, knocking on $10..

just a shame, regardless of the REAL reason, that the miners can't put on a fireworks performance. Earnings may be the spark or could be a non event .. dunno

One thing is for sure.. anything that's paper, including stock certificates, are trash not to be relied upon.

I can't believe it, but I'm going to be adding more physical silver even at these prices. I shutter because I started buying Silver in the $4s, so this SEEMS expensive to my pocketbook..

GRZ getting ready for fireworks.....

I'm starting to feel rather complacent. Lalalala...

It's tough to buy silver at this point because it is so damn volatile. I've been selling the sterling silver I bought when silver was at $5 and buying junk silver dollars.

These miners should be screaming higher, but nooooooooooo!

You can bet the DOW will finish green though.

"...buying junk silver dollars"

OH.... May I ask, why is that ?

re: physical silver/gold - I'm holding from 4.50/320 and will continue holding until Dow/Gold <= 2

i am starting to dislike rgld! whats up w/that! dharma

Those junk silver rounds offer the best value and easily recognized by the gardener or maid as being real. Besides you look kinda funny when you are carrying that 100oz bar around in your pocket and then need change. Just break a chunk off and weigh it and check spot price...........

Sold SSRI. Still have SLW for silver. looking to buy something else. I know what you mean about RGLD. Gonna have to read up on it. I had sold RGLD and bought TRE then sold TRE and bought RGLD because they don't go up together, that has worked out for me. I might want to do it here at this point.

Playing with penny stocks like GSS and NXG is usually iffy but in this bull market sector it is hard to go wrong.

I certainly haven't lost anything. Stop focussing on the markets so much, it's a nice day out.

could be a B wave . gold new highs, xau/hui new highs. silver not. going into a bunker. dharma

RGLD conference call on May 4 for Q3. Put in a buy at the low 33 area. Just in case the gap gets filled.

Where's Charmin?

Dempsey.