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Full Version: IDS World Markets Thurs 18th May 06
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
A surge of selling on the market today initially plummeting All Ords over 2%. We're in the midst of a weak bounce atm but stocks appear firmly capped by sellers. The index is currently -1.7% and Materials is leading the way down, -3.4% followed by Energy, -1.8%. Amazingly enough there is one green sector, Telecom, +0.4%.
BHP and RIO both hit hard, down almost 4% and the golds way down ranging from Lihir -7.6% to Newmont -2.8%.
Oils not too badly off at this stage, down around 1.5% and not seeing the same degree of selling as the miners.
More selling off in Asia: Sth Korea -2.9%, Singers and China -2.3% and Nikkers -2%.
An exceedingly bearish day complete with a selloff into close which doesn't show on the 5-day chart. All Ords closed 5076, -1.9%. Materials retained the lead on the downside, -3.7% and Energy was next, -2.3%. Telecom remained the sole green sector, +0.8%.
In the miners, BHP closed below recent support which doesn't bode well but RIO closed a smidge above support. Golds continued to spiral down and now Lihir is in a support zone. Likewise Newcrest has thudded into a support area so maybe we get a bounce in the short term but I wouldn't rule out another leg down.
Visitors about to descend so I'll have to finish this off later, sorry
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QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 18 2006, 04:18 AM)
Looks like optmism is fading. US Futures were up earlier and are now up less. I thought that Doc was going to trim to two or three.
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 06:50 AM)
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 18 2006, 04:18 AM)
Looks like optmism is fading. US Futures were up earlier and are now up less. I thought that Doc was going to trim to two or three.
Yep, definitely looking limp...
---------
India finished -6.8%...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t...l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
LME denies any members are in financial trouble.
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
Wow, the long awaited IT pullback in materials and energy....
Naz bounce on schedule....why many people are watching this for a crash with commodities in the nosebleed level Ill never know....
The best of breed nat gas stocks arent the most attractive here imo...PQ and PLLL way overbought on an IT basis but Dover Sole on a ST basis....too much focus on nat gas instead of the nat gas stocks..imo..Im hoping they come back down to earth....no reason to pay attention to the bellweathers in this arena....the momos are alot better indicators...
What happened to Saudi Arabia?
Why is wyndy the only one I have heard mention this?
What was the catalyst?
All eyes on the S&P and QQQ.....
What are your favorite foreign etfs?
Naz bounce on schedule....why many people are watching this for a crash with commodities in the nosebleed level Ill never know....
The best of breed nat gas stocks arent the most attractive here imo...PQ and PLLL way overbought on an IT basis but Dover Sole on a ST basis....too much focus on nat gas instead of the nat gas stocks..imo..Im hoping they come back down to earth....no reason to pay attention to the bellweathers in this arena....the momos are alot better indicators...
What happened to Saudi Arabia?
Why is wyndy the only one I have heard mention this?
What was the catalyst?
All eyes on the S&P and QQQ.....
What are your favorite foreign etfs?
QUOTE(Dr Bob Poodit @ May 18 2006, 07:25 AM)
LME denies any members are in financial trouble.
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
Sure seems like a blow-off top. But what do I know.
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 07:50 AM)
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 18 2006, 04:18 AM)
Looks like optmism is fading. US Futures were up earlier and are now up less. I thought that Doc was going to trim to two or three.
They all looked so juicy, I decided to go all in. Willing to risk sitting through a bounce, which may or may not be substantial, and may or may not occur from here. It's a hero or goat kind of play, but I liked the odds.
We'll see.
In the category of things that make you go "Hmmmmmm," TNX gapped down and is continuing lower.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 18 2006, 07:46 AM)
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 07:50 AM)
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 18 2006, 04:18 AM)
Looks like optmism is fading. US Futures were up earlier and are now up less. I thought that Doc was going to trim to two or three.
They all looked so juicy, I decided to go all in. Willing to risk sitting through a bounce, which may or may not be substantial, and may or may not occur from here. It's a hero or goat kind of play, but I liked the odds.
We'll see.
All in short?
TZU, I am watching EWT for a possible purchase soon
Long AMGN, BRCM, BEAS and RMBS
tight stops!
tight stops!
LME Warehouse stocks of copper dropped another 1225 tonnes yesterday to 107,925 tonnes.
QUOTE(Dr Bob Poodit @ May 18 2006, 08:25 AM)
LME denies any members are in financial trouble.
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
Thanks to you, Dr. Bob! Our man with his ear to the ground in the pits and on the floor.
TNX cratering. Reversing all of yesterday's pop.
A vertiable "Triumph of Will" show on Crapvision today. NSA wiretaps are double plus good for the country. Glad these guys stick up for joe public on all issues financial and private.
EWT sure is holding up better than other areas....Im out half position with the rest riding....looking for a reentry as well...
Cramers buy 1 share stock SHLD is up 10% after great earnings...
Cramers buy 1 share stock SHLD is up 10% after great earnings...
Yes, 16 shorts and zero longs.
If the signals whipsaw, there's enough profit in the earlier picks to give a bit of a cushion, but not much. It's definitely a plunger's gamble, but the selections were made with extreme care. First I ran the screens, then I looked at the charts with double sell signals in force-- for the 13 week and 6 month cycles. I was looking for stocks that had already broken, or were very close to a break of support. The second criteria is riskier, but the downside potential is greater.
The last time I went this heavily in one direction was on the long side last October. There were so many good setups, my head was spinning. Ended up with over 40 picks on the long side and either one or no shortsfrom late October through early December. After that, I decided to limit the number of open picks on the list to no more than 21. One a day, on average, although they tend to come in clumps.
Unfortunately, when I went away a couple of weekends ago, I put in some arbitrary stops because I wasn't going to be able to check on things. Got stopped out of KBH and PHM on a pigman sqeeze, but fortunately didn't get stopped out of DHI. I hate stops. Backtesting and experience in real time has shown that performance is better when simply following signals. It's not a perfect system, but stops ended up taking out potentially big winners on the pigman shanks and stop running exercises more often than they prevented big losses.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
If the signals whipsaw, there's enough profit in the earlier picks to give a bit of a cushion, but not much. It's definitely a plunger's gamble, but the selections were made with extreme care. First I ran the screens, then I looked at the charts with double sell signals in force-- for the 13 week and 6 month cycles. I was looking for stocks that had already broken, or were very close to a break of support. The second criteria is riskier, but the downside potential is greater.
The last time I went this heavily in one direction was on the long side last October. There were so many good setups, my head was spinning. Ended up with over 40 picks on the long side and either one or no shortsfrom late October through early December. After that, I decided to limit the number of open picks on the list to no more than 21. One a day, on average, although they tend to come in clumps.
Unfortunately, when I went away a couple of weekends ago, I put in some arbitrary stops because I wasn't going to be able to check on things. Got stopped out of KBH and PHM on a pigman sqeeze, but fortunately didn't get stopped out of DHI. I hate stops. Backtesting and experience in real time has shown that performance is better when simply following signals. It's not a perfect system, but stops ended up taking out potentially big winners on the pigman shanks and stop running exercises more often than they prevented big losses.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 18 2006, 08:07 AM)
Unfortunately, when I went away a couple of weekends ago, I put in some arbitrary stops because I wasn't going to be able to check on things. Got stopped out of KBH and PHM on a pigman sqeeze, but fortunately didn't get stopped out of DHI. I hate stops.
Well, we know who's been buying your ebay auctions, the prop desk! I guess we should have figured that when the winner bidders were: HamptonsRule, MyBonusIsBigger, and TAis4Suckas
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 18 2006, 08:07 AM)
Yes, 16 shorts and zero longs.
If the signals whipsaw, there's enough profit in the earlier picks to give a bit of a cushion, but not much. It's definitely a plunger's gamble, but the selections were made with extreme care. First I ran the screens, then I looked at the charts with double sell signals in force-- for the 13 week and 6 month cycles. I was looking for stocks that had already broken, or were very close to a break of support. The second criteria is riskier, but the downside potential is greater.
The last time I went this heavily in one direction was on the long side last October. There were so many good setups, my head was spinning. Ended up with over 40 picks on the long side and either one or no shortsfrom late October through early December. After that, I decided to limit the number of open picks on the list to no more than 21. One a day, on average, although they tend to come in clumps.
Unfortunately, when I went away a couple of weekends ago, I put in some arbitrary stops because I wasn't going to be able to check on things. Got stopped out of KBH and PHM on a pigman sqeeze, but fortunately didn't get stopped out of DHI. I hate stops. Backtesting and experience in real time has shown that performance is better when simply following signals. It's not a perfect system, but stops ended up taking out potentially big winners on the pigman shanks and stop running exercises more often than they prevented big losses.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
If the signals whipsaw, there's enough profit in the earlier picks to give a bit of a cushion, but not much. It's definitely a plunger's gamble, but the selections were made with extreme care. First I ran the screens, then I looked at the charts with double sell signals in force-- for the 13 week and 6 month cycles. I was looking for stocks that had already broken, or were very close to a break of support. The second criteria is riskier, but the downside potential is greater.
The last time I went this heavily in one direction was on the long side last October. There were so many good setups, my head was spinning. Ended up with over 40 picks on the long side and either one or no shortsfrom late October through early December. After that, I decided to limit the number of open picks on the list to no more than 21. One a day, on average, although they tend to come in clumps.
Unfortunately, when I went away a couple of weekends ago, I put in some arbitrary stops because I wasn't going to be able to check on things. Got stopped out of KBH and PHM on a pigman sqeeze, but fortunately didn't get stopped out of DHI. I hate stops. Backtesting and experience in real time has shown that performance is better when simply following signals. It's not a perfect system, but stops ended up taking out potentially big winners on the pigman shanks and stop running exercises more often than they prevented big losses.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
Thanks! Let me run over to WSE.
Life after a sell-off
Futures signal mild rebound for U.S. shares
Futures signal mild rebound for U.S. shares
I got a notice from a bank that a bond paying 13 7/8% was being called.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
I just have this sneaky suspicion that either today or tomorrow, we get a
30+ point up move in the NASDAQ and maybe 150 points in the DJIA. This
is scam week. I think that I'll look for a big upmove and the liquidity picture
before committing to shorts. I'm probably in the dip toe in water category.
I don't really care how I get classified. I just want a decent return on capital. I already have enough for the year. But more is better, right?
30+ point up move in the NASDAQ and maybe 150 points in the DJIA. This
is scam week. I think that I'll look for a big upmove and the liquidity picture
before committing to shorts. I'm probably in the dip toe in water category.
I don't really care how I get classified. I just want a decent return on capital. I already have enough for the year. But more is better, right?
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 18 2006, 08:07 AM)
I hate stops. Backtesting and experience in real time has shown that performance is better when simply following signals. It's not a perfect system, but stops ended up taking out potentially big winners on the pigman shanks and stop running exercises more often than they prevented big losses.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
The other system isn't perfect either. Signals can whipsaw and/or be late. But the backtesting showed that over time this system had a slight edge over one that used stops.
Absolutely agree re stops Doc. In fact after accepting for years the mantra 'gotta have stops' I finally ditched them and like you, follow signals. I have a time limit and when this is hit I take the next exit signal. If things go well I'm out with a profit long before the time limit is hit. Sounds dangerous but it's not really if running with the longer term trend. There's usually a chance to get out with a minimal loss or even a small profit.
futures love the jump in jobless claims
367 vs 319exp
rise was due to the govt shutdown in Puerto Rico
Is the fed going to stop raising rates because the govt of PR is bankrupt and had to layoff all its workers?
367 vs 319exp
rise was due to the govt shutdown in Puerto Rico
Is the fed going to stop raising rates because the govt of PR is bankrupt and had to layoff all its workers?
Missed the ramp over a cup of coffee. Sitting this one out for now. Will check back at 10:05 to see what the Fed did and look for a moring ramp reversal.
Miners are perky this morning but what they're on I'm not sure about. Back to work.
Miners are perky this morning but what they're on I'm not sure about. Back to work.
tnx hmmmmmmmmm
QUOTE(Tzu @ May 18 2006, 07:37 AM)
What happened to Saudi Arabia?
Why is wyndy the only one I have heard mention this?
What was the catalyst?
Why is wyndy the only one I have heard mention this?
What was the catalyst?
Yep, almost nothing in the Aussie media too. Could be one of those quiet events that has wider ramifications.
Interesting that it preceded a global drop in the markets... From what I've read it's been attributed to overspeculation but no idea what the actual catalyst was.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 18 2006, 07:48 AM)
In the category of things that make you go "Hmmmmmm," TNX gapped down and is continuing lower.
Is that in the category of the Saudi Royal Minister who said the price of oil was too high along with the attack on gold, now the amazing strength in the FRN,?
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 08:24 AM)
I got a notice from a bank that a bond paying 13 7/8% was being called.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
I am amazed it was not called years ago. It must have had a call provision. What kind of bond was it? Thanks.
QUOTE(cwd @ May 18 2006, 09:57 AM)
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 08:24 AM)
I got a notice from a bank that a bond paying 13 7/8% was being called.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
This bond was from 16 years ago I think. Principle was only $2K though.
I can understand why they want to call it.
I am amazed it was not called years ago. It must have had a call provision. What kind of bond was it? Thanks. I don't know. The certificate is in the basement somewhere. We have some other bonds
from around that time as well that I should probably check out.
Got a short on one of the WSE picks. Order in for a second. I don't know if that one will make it though. Is Shorty still short GG? I was pretty stunned to see it in the $31 area today.
Short pigmen (GS) at 150... 
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ May 18 2006, 10:04 AM)
Short pigmen (GS) at 150...
Nice intraday breakdown there. Leader of the pack?
Got the second WSE pick. Looks like I got two good entries. I think that that's enough
for now. Don't want to stick the whole foot in just yet.
Any thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway long? Chart doesn't look that bad at
the moment. Flight to quality?
the moment. Flight to quality?
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 10:16 AM)
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ May 18 2006, 10:04 AM)
Short pigmen (GS) at 150...
Nice intraday breakdown there. Leader of the pack?
Got the second WSE pick. Looks like I got two good entries. I think that that's enough
for now. Don't want to stick the whole foot in just yet.
I hope mine's not in my mouth at the end of the day.
QUOTE(Dr Bob Poodit @ May 18 2006, 07:25 AM)
LME denies any members are in financial trouble.
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
The denial makes it official.
WSE carried this story two days ago!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../18/ixcity.html
He wrote an article on the 13th, I believe anticipating a little intervention. This is a follow up story and as Dr. B mentions it is a confirm.
Banks face vast losses in copper mayhem
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 13/05/2006)
Dr. Bob how are they going to handle it?
In fact on CNBS Pisonni and Haynes are worrying about a RE blowup and a Hedge fund blowup.
,but think we are going to have a soft landing in RE.
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ May 18 2006, 10:04 AM)
Short pigmen (GS) at 150...
Nice intraday breakdown there. Leader of the pack?
Got the second WSE pick. Looks like I got two good entries. I think that that's enough
for now. Don't want to stick the whole foot in just yet.
GS, BSC, LEH, CME...all look'n like crap since last friday. Everyone should had listen to Mark's podcast last weekend with Doc. The broker dealers were key to this decline.
FleaBay at L/T support at 29-30. First time it has tagged this zone since breaking out in late 2003. This might complete an A-B-C down move off the 2005 top.
FleaBay consolidated b/w 25-29ish from Jun-Nov 2003 before breaking out and running from 29 to 59 in 2004. The stock dipped to 29.04 this morning.
I'm no huge fan of the stock, but charts is charts. And this is a low-risk zone with stops around 28.50 or so.
If this level holds, look for a move back to at least 36 or possibly to test the downtrend line off the Jan05 high now at about 42.
If this level doesn't hold, it might need to go back to 25ish.
I've included a chart of the action from late 2003 to show the consolidation pattern b/w 25-29.
FleaBay consolidated b/w 25-29ish from Jun-Nov 2003 before breaking out and running from 29 to 59 in 2004. The stock dipped to 29.04 this morning.
I'm no huge fan of the stock, but charts is charts. And this is a low-risk zone with stops around 28.50 or so.
If this level holds, look for a move back to at least 36 or possibly to test the downtrend line off the Jan05 high now at about 42.
If this level doesn't hold, it might need to go back to 25ish.
I've included a chart of the action from late 2003 to show the consolidation pattern b/w 25-29.
for all those morons on cnbs who tink this market is still good and are positive the market will be lower by next thursday than we are now..just watch..
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ May 18 2006, 10:37 AM)
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 18 2006, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ May 18 2006, 10:04 AM)
Short pigmen (GS) at 150...
Nice intraday breakdown there. Leader of the pack?
Got the second WSE pick. Looks like I got two good entries. I think that that's enough
for now. Don't want to stick the whole foot in just yet.
GS, BSC, LEH, CME...all look'n like crap since last friday. Everyone should had listen to Mark's podcast last weekend with Doc. The broker dealers were key to this decline.
Nice retest of the breakdown point and heading to the LOD.
Check this
Blood on Dalal Street, Sensex plunges 826 pts
INDIATIMES NEWS NETWORK[ THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2006 04:25:09 PM
IIf up +.50 HOD IFN up .15. Somethoing does not compute.
Any Stoolies familar with this. It looks like a great short.
Blood on Dalal Street, Sensex plunges 826 pts
INDIATIMES NEWS NETWORK[ THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2006 04:25:09 PM
IIf up +.50 HOD
IFN up .15. Somethoing does not compute. Any Stoolies familar with this. It looks like a great short.
Same thing with CME...came right back up this morning to backtest breakdown...now breaking down.
Just tried to short IFN and IIf. 
Order rejected at Schwab. I will call and find out what is going on. I guess the house is doing the shorting.
CME & GS just printed new lows! BOOYAH!
QUOTE(cwd @ May 18 2006, 10:01 AM)
Just tried to short IFN and IIf. Order rejected at Schwab. I will call and find out what is going on. I guess the house is doing the shorting. I just called Schwab. They said both IIF and IFN are not eligble to be shorted.
No reason given.
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