http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Signs of a recovery today but there's still a lot of caution out there and I daresay, a fair bit of wound licking. All Ords currently +0.1% and Energy is clear leader, +1%. There's very little movement in other sectors; Property Trusts is down the most, -0.3%.

In the miners, BHP and RIO not doing a lot: BHP -0.1% and RIO +0.2%. Golds are looking a tad more sparky: Lihir +1.4%, Newcrest +1% but Newmont -3.3%.

Oils are looking ok if not overly enthusiastic. Woodside +0.4%, Santos +0.5% and Caltex +1.1%.

There's still a bit of red floating around in Asia: Nikkers -0.6%, Sth Korea and Singers -0.3%. China rebounding, +1.2%.

Japan's Economy Expands as Consumers, Companies Spend

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, heading for its longest postwar expansion, as consumers and companies increased spending.

The world's second-largest economy expanded at an annual 1.9 percent pace in the three months ended March 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

The report supports speculation the Bank of Japan, meeting today, may conclude the economy is resilient enough to withstand an interest rate increase later this year as deflation ends.

A slow selloff into close but now the index is very close to support on the 5-day chart. All Ords finished -0.3% and sectors did a slide with only 2 green for the day. Energy retained the lead albeit at a diminished +0.4%. Telecom was the other green, +0.2%. Utilities ended the day down the most, -0.9%.

Miners weakened in the arvo with both BHP and RIO closing red. The golds also lost steam but managed minor gains in most cases.

Oils finished up but like the miners, it was a lesser amount than in morning trade.

Asia upwardly mobile: China +2.8%, India +1.2% and Nikkers +0.4%.

Over to UK/Europe:







http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

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If one was hard pressed you can find a couple of bullish divergences with the MACD (shown). Based on a 38-50% retrace, the thin blue lines represent a target area for a potential relief rally.

In addition to the MACD we had a 10+% contraction in volume yesterday. I expect some sort of rally

We also had A pattern that shows up "near" lows whereby the spx closes below it's daily BB and the Vix closes above. That occured on Wed.

Good luck in your trading.

almost time to go load up on some physical silver......talk about not having to worry about anything afterwards!!!
Whats great about silver is after a few years you start forgeting about certain buys and are rewarded at the safety deposit box...

I had my father sign with my boxes so he could enter them upon my demise.....hes instructed to immediately get over there and dump it.....reading some info at a funeral, I saw the stuff about the inventory to be taken etc......I thought.....when hell freezes over.....grab it first, ask questions later......am I right here??

this whole drop in the markets has been developed by the central banks. They need to bring the commodity prices down at whatever cost. I truely believe the system is getting more unstable each time the central bankers have a brain fart. The question is now once they have got gold and copper and other prices headed down, does the market go right back up for that infamous right shoulder. Fill in the gap around 1290?

safe deposit boxes are a bad place to store silver. no insurance and the reason you bought silver is to hedge against a collapse in the system. If your bank has trouble or if there is an event , nice try pulling silver out of that box.

There was some HISD missive about not allowing gold and silver out of SDBs in the
event of an emergency a while ago. Cash was okay though.

GG trading under $30 this morning. Talk about getting Cramerized.

BTW, AMD is trading about $1.30 off the AH prices yesterday. INTC is
trading above the AH prices too.

I don’t think anything has changed. It looks like someone is real trouble and scam week delta hedging has taken place, once it all settles down, depending on the type of bounce we will find out which side has a winning hand. Oil and other commodities had no effect during the melt down.

Has anyone noticed how HUI behaved during the sell off?

What does that tell you???

Did that fit with your picture????

Now you understand what Preacher has been saying???

Black hole is a hole which will sucks in everything

If the game is still on then quality out fits are the one to go for. Just wait for the base building formation.

FT takes 7mo to catches up to the stool

FT is blaming the selloff on variance swaps. A directional bet on the mkt.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7edab4a6-e6d3-11d...00779e2340.html

we discussed these swaps during the nov05 expiration meltup. At which time they were identified as one of the key drivers of that meltup:
http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...42&#entry470142


a little background on the swap:
http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazin...00col.asp?print

While I agree that the selling might of been helped along by the swaps. It didn't start the selling. Bottom line is derivatives do not magically remove risk they simply transfer risk from one party to another with ever increasing leverage.

Cardinal rule of leverage: payback is a bitch!

I have my silver coins for completely different reasons.......
Being tagged by the hurricane....there were a few days in the dark ages afterwards.....silver coins wouldnt have helped.......gas, food and water were all that was important....
I guess Ill have to make a treasure map......cant keep them at home. To easy to be robbed..

Feedfool, I agree....its a large pullback to me unless proven otherwise.....capitulation and crash can be easily confused.....either way there are nice bounces and overbought/Dover Sole applies....

I am very aware of reversions.
I am also very aware of the relentless overbought pegging off the 03 bottom and the possibility of the opposite occuring....

I like realists ideas with the long dollar and rydex..

If the market acts like yesterday today then Ill be watcing for the gap down monday to buy into....

Real repositioning may begin next week....lets see which way the crowd bets...

limit down on copper..

Got a gold pivot date Monday.

They need the cooper back down to $200 that’s where the Chinese covered only 25% and rolled over their short positions.

Long Intel at $18.09. AMD dropped too fast to get the short.

Markets don't get overbought in the initial thrust off a major low. Nor do they get Dover Sole in the initial punch of the first downleg in a new bear market. Short term indicators measure short term cycles. Intermediate indicators measure intermediate cycles and long term indicators measure long term cycles. Looking at intermediate indicators, the market is nowhere near a downside extreme. In fact, it's just getting to neutral. Longer term indicators have just rolled over at the highs. Short term indicators must be read in context. They are essentially useless in the first leg of a major turn in either direction.

INTC zooming upwards. Serves me right for cheering last night at the aftermarket circus. I should know better.

GPS reports lousy earnings and the stock zooms up 4%.

mmoy- I'm with shorty on INTC. Chart looks to me like it may be headed for single digits eventually. What's your thinking here? Ultra short term bounce? I don't see much upside without some basing.

Dmm: If you are around. Do you see an entry for nem? You called it to a tee last time at 46.60. Btw, kudos again on that call.

When you say dump, I would suggest he just move it and not try to sell it if you have any quantity. I am not a lawyer but there are tax consequenses if you sell. If there are not problems with government confiscation, you might want to probate it. Your heirs will get it at the value on your death unless you have a large enough estate to owe inheritance tax. DYODD

Lot of folks getting very bullish on GE as I posted earlier this week. Major resistance is the 34-35 zone. But GE is forming one of those "McHuge" H/S patterns on the hourlies with the neckline around 34.20. Dailies forming a weird expanding pattern with lower lows and lower highs since Jan 05.

A breakdown on the hourlies targets at least 33.20. Needs to print above 35.24 to bust the downtrend on the dailies.

Don't know if this "McHuge" will complete, but if so, they won't be bullish for the broads short-term.

Since it’s a scam week those guys will be more interested in squiring their books.

Why don’t they just get rid of scam week and after hours trading????

What about the FNM??

Why is it still trading???

It looks as though they have succeeded in knocking the price of all the metals, with out resorting to the Hunt rule [no buying , only selling allowed]
The PIGMEN are not going to lose.
It look as though I am now a long term goldbug At least no margin and ample cash. still not a good feeling.
As Drano says when you start counting your money it is time to get out.

Or

what gives??

If you think like me then it’s a subsidy which they give so one can catch the golden boat.

They beat by a penny. Pigman squeeze play.

The REIT ETF -- IYR taking the pipe.

The 46ish level was a pretty easy call. Now that NEM has rallied to a lower high and is falling like a rock again, all bets are off.

If the 49.30 zone doesn't contain this decline (and we're basically there right now), I don't think 46 will hold it again. It may have to go back to 39-42 (15-20% lower). Nowhere near Dover Sole on the weeklies.

You could buy it here at 49ish and hope it holds, since your stop loss is only a few pct. But it doesn't look promising frankly.

I posted an hourly chart discussing a s/t move and you post a 30-year chart showing.....what?

Good morning:

Getting the crap kicked outta me, I'm in @2.89 on one of my few longs here, IVAN.
Would any of you technical wizards care to give me some hope, or is it time to push the EJECT button?
I'd sincerely appreciate it!!

dmm: Thanks

I got in this little guy at 1.25. Crammer started beating his drum saying that copper and zinc were the only things worth playing at around $3.00. Thankfully that was my sign to sell 2/3 position.

Now down 40% in a week. Look at that giant volume candle last week. That's known as a "Crammer Candle".

BTW, at today's price of 1.95, EZM is trading at 5x forward P/E based on consensus earnings of 34/cents a share and discounting copper at 1.91. So even if copper gets a 50% haircut, EZM is at 5x. If copper gets a 75% haircut back to 90 cents, EZM is trading at 10x.

No political risk since ops are in Portugal.

I believe the stock should be "worth" at least 2.70-3.40 for 2007. But it's amazing what happens when a stock/sector gets Crammerized.

Looks like a flag formation which may take many months to fully form.

DJ Tsy Quarles Urges Big Tsy Traders `Tread Very Carefully`
*DJ Quarles: Consolidation Raises Tsy Mkt Manipulation Risk
*DJ Quarles: `Questionable` Behavior In Tsy Mkt Up Since '04
DJ Quarles: Future Low Nominal Rates Another Tsy Mkt Risk
DJ Quarles: Negative Repo Trading Could Relieve Mkt Fails
DJ Quarles: `Imperative` That Congress Reform GSEs Now
DJ Quarles: Tsy Securities Still Attractive To Foreigners

From Dow news wire , Treasury makes a warning,
Feels like there is a long term capital management out there. This sell off in Commodities, and rally in bonds is suspicious, the question is does the market hold up today or there a shoe to drop later. By the way does anyone know what negative repo trading is? Does not sound like a reverse repo.
Thanks

Soup, glad to see you posting.

Booked a 1.5% gain on INTC and then went to a meeting. I see that it's back down.
Gotta love scam week. AMD didn't get back to $35 I see.

That is my plan although it is painful watching it melt away for awhile. I agree, that it is a gift. The big picture has not changed. I did not hear of any giant new oil fields being discovered latey, and Helo Ben has printing his press working overtime.

dmm, any is CHK at this level???

I agree. But it's 18 months old and counting. Until it makes a higher high, it's a downtrend. Once it makes a higher high, it might be considered a bull flag.

If CC were valued with the same P/E as BBY, it would be a bit under 20.

28.41 now.

Support at 28, then 24.

profit-taking continues in metals and energy

this is a good time to start slowly buying back miners and alt energy with patient limit orders well below the market, from folks who didn't take their profits at the top getting shaken out here

Looks dreadful. Appears that the triangle will complete to the downside. Weekly trendline support around 23 and change. At this point, I'd either let it drop and buy at lower levels or wait until it makes a higher high (above 33.79). Could potentially drop to 16-17 based on the triangle, but who knows.