http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Full Version: IDS World Markets Thurs 25th May 06
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
Well that trip out took longer than I thought but doesn't it always..
The touch of g&d has turned into much more. All Ords currently -0.9% and all sectors red. Probably not much point in going into details until close but suffice to say that global red abounds. Sth Korea leading the way down, -2.3% and India next at -1.9%.
More later...
A general across-the-board slide today with not one sector closing up. All Ords finished -1.1%, Healthcare and Materials closed down the most, -2.1% with Consumer Discretionary and Telecom falling the least, -0.7%.
Miners not too badly off considering the sector fell quite a bit. BHP and RIO were saved from making new recent lows by yesterday's rise so tomorrow's action will be important. Similar stories on the golds, down but possibly just a pullback on yesterday's action.
The Energy sector closed -1.5% with both Woodside and Santos -1.9%.
Pretty much a downer in Asia although China managed to squeeze out +0.1%. Sth Korea down the most, -2.8%.
UK/Europe doing the red rollercoaster yesterday and today....?
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Japan April Trade Surplus Narrows on High Oil Prices
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's trade surplus narrowed more than expected in April as manufacturers' purchases of components and higher oil prices increased imports in the world's second- largest economy.
The surplus narrowed to 646.2 billion yen ($5.7 billion) from 947.5 billion yen a year ago, the Ministry of Finance said in a report in Tokyo today.
---------------
BOJ Pumps Cash Into Reserves, 1st Time in 14 Months
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan pumped money into the financial system for the first time in 14 months, seeking to curb speculation over interest rate increases.
Japan's central bank today bought 480 billion yen ($4.3 billion) in discount bills from commercial banks after the overnight lending rate between banks rose to the highest level in almost four years. The bank has been draining excess funds as a prelude to raising its benchmark rate for the first time since 2000, a move that may come as soon as July.
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's trade surplus narrowed more than expected in April as manufacturers' purchases of components and higher oil prices increased imports in the world's second- largest economy.
The surplus narrowed to 646.2 billion yen ($5.7 billion) from 947.5 billion yen a year ago, the Ministry of Finance said in a report in Tokyo today.
---------------
BOJ Pumps Cash Into Reserves, 1st Time in 14 Months
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan pumped money into the financial system for the first time in 14 months, seeking to curb speculation over interest rate increases.
Japan's central bank today bought 480 billion yen ($4.3 billion) in discount bills from commercial banks after the overnight lending rate between banks rose to the highest level in almost four years. The bank has been draining excess funds as a prelude to raising its benchmark rate for the first time since 2000, a move that may come as soon as July.
Keep an eye out fo'coppa
Jickiss will love this one.
Talk about the fix being in.
The Preakness winner has been pulled from the Belmont Stakes, for no good reason.
"Dubai's Sheik Mohammed, who operates Darley Stud, made the decision to rest Bernardini.
"We feel that he climbed the ladder of competition quite quickly," said James G. Bell of Darley Stable. "We believe he deserves a break."
http://my.earthlink.net/article/spo?guid=2...60525-460963288
At that, it's more honest than the stock markets. At least they pre-announce when they're not going to let you make money on it.
Maybe the sheik will buy Fannie Mae and clean it up?
Talk about the fix being in.
The Preakness winner has been pulled from the Belmont Stakes, for no good reason.
"Dubai's Sheik Mohammed, who operates Darley Stud, made the decision to rest Bernardini.
"We feel that he climbed the ladder of competition quite quickly," said James G. Bell of Darley Stable. "We believe he deserves a break."
http://my.earthlink.net/article/spo?guid=2...60525-460963288
At that, it's more honest than the stock markets. At least they pre-announce when they're not going to let you make money on it.
Maybe the sheik will buy Fannie Mae and clean it up?
I think the mistake that a lot of folks are making is allowing short term indicators to make them believe that a bottom is in the works. I see the same indications that they do, and yes, a short term cycle low is in the works. But I'm looking at the intermediate and longer term indicators at the same time and I ain't buyin' it. Buying this low is like playing Russian Roulette, with 5 bullets instead of one.
Perhaps.
Doc, what about if you where short from above 1300 spx, would you cover for the short term or let it ride? I see a move to the 1212 or the 1300 area.
Microsoft: Ballmer indicates that Vista will probably slip further than January. Maybe that has something to do with all of the MSN problems?
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
QUOTE(The end @ May 25 2006, 06:58 AM)
Doc, what about if you where short from above 1300 spx, would you cover for the short term or let it ride? I see a move to the 1212 or the 1300 area.
That's essentially what I have been doing in the WSE Pro Chart of the Day list. It's now down to only seven positions, of which three more will be closed at this morning's open. The cycle based stock screens that I do on the SP 500 stocks, and approximately 66 leading ETFs produce the candidates based on concurrent intermediate buy or sell signals, then I review the charts for the best looking ones. I have been taking profits on the short positions over the last few days when they hit centered moving average projections and when the short term indicators reach an Dover Sole condition.
That could be a mistake, but for now I'm not willing to risk having profits wiped out in the event of a Roman candle one day rally, or a real turn. I will add to shorts, or longs, each day as the screens spit out the prime candidates for an intermediate turn. So far, I haven't seen anything worth buying. All of the stocks on the list have been on the short side, since a few days after the market turned down. I let the screens, and my visual review of the resulting charts determine my actions.
The model I use to select stocks for Chart of the Day is geared to intermediate cycles. In whippy markets like those from December to April, that causes problems. April was particularly brutal.
Throughout the period, I continually attempted to make adjustments to the model, and in most cases that made things worse, but either the market has returned to the kinds of longer swings which the system is best at catching, or going back to the system's basics may have been the right way to go all along.
The main change that I have made in the last month is including equal vertical width channel analysis in the mix, along with the signal review. The other change that occasionally picks out a great play is taking the second 13 week cycle signal in a 6 month cycle, instead of just the first. In particular, I look for those setups where the cycle indicators are near the zero line as they begin to roll over or turn up. I also look at the short term indicators, and I won't pick a stock where the short term indicators aren't currently supporting the new intermediate signals.
On the short side, I am looking for situations where all the time frames are going to be in gear, and where obvious support levels are a long way down. Sometimes, I'll pick a short before it breaks support if all the indicators and the channel analysis suggest that a breakdown is imminent. We caught Dell and Agilent as shorts on that basis recently, and took profits in both when their short term indicators hit a Dover Sole reading and/or, the price had hit the projection or a support level.
In recent days, although I am still seeing plenty of intermediate short sale signals, the shorter term indicators are too far down. So I have been cutting back on entries on the short side.
Anyway, so far this month, the changes I have made finally seem to be paying off. The average profit on the seven open selections is 1.97% with an average 6 day holding period. The 3 to be closed this morning had an average holding period of just over 8 days, with an average profit of 3%. So far in May, 23 of 34 selections have been closed with profits. The average holding period was 14 calendar days. The average gain per win was 4.25% and the average loss per loser was 1.88%, for an overall average win of 2.27%. Doesn't sound like much, until you consider the average holding period. Compounding small profits can add up pretty quickly.
The system is supposed to yield positions with an average 6 week holding period, but the recent choppy market has made me paranoid, and I have been closing the selections well before any intermediate reversal signals. It may well be that this strategy is a mistake on this cycle-- that gains will be much larger if we wait for the intermediate reversal signal. Having been so thoroughly scorched in March and April, it's not a chance I am currently willing to take.
There's the problem. I'm not the only one who has developed that fear. Which means that a whole helluva lot of shorts may have been covered in anticipation of this widely advertised bounce that EVERYONE knows is on the way. If that's the case, the market is going to be much, much weaker for much much longer than most people expect. If an individual stock chart dictates, I'll add a short in a South Philly second, regardless of the fact that short term market indicators look Dover Sole. Because as we all know, there's no such thing in a bear market, and maybe, just maybe, that's what this is.
Future results may differ, of course.
Throughout the period, I continually attempted to make adjustments to the model, and in most cases that made things worse, but either the market has returned to the kinds of longer swings which the system is best at catching, or going back to the system's basics may have been the right way to go all along.
The main change that I have made in the last month is including equal vertical width channel analysis in the mix, along with the signal review. The other change that occasionally picks out a great play is taking the second 13 week cycle signal in a 6 month cycle, instead of just the first. In particular, I look for those setups where the cycle indicators are near the zero line as they begin to roll over or turn up. I also look at the short term indicators, and I won't pick a stock where the short term indicators aren't currently supporting the new intermediate signals.
On the short side, I am looking for situations where all the time frames are going to be in gear, and where obvious support levels are a long way down. Sometimes, I'll pick a short before it breaks support if all the indicators and the channel analysis suggest that a breakdown is imminent. We caught Dell and Agilent as shorts on that basis recently, and took profits in both when their short term indicators hit a Dover Sole reading and/or, the price had hit the projection or a support level.
In recent days, although I am still seeing plenty of intermediate short sale signals, the shorter term indicators are too far down. So I have been cutting back on entries on the short side.
Anyway, so far this month, the changes I have made finally seem to be paying off. The average profit on the seven open selections is 1.97% with an average 6 day holding period. The 3 to be closed this morning had an average holding period of just over 8 days, with an average profit of 3%. So far in May, 23 of 34 selections have been closed with profits. The average holding period was 14 calendar days. The average gain per win was 4.25% and the average loss per loser was 1.88%, for an overall average win of 2.27%. Doesn't sound like much, until you consider the average holding period. Compounding small profits can add up pretty quickly.
The system is supposed to yield positions with an average 6 week holding period, but the recent choppy market has made me paranoid, and I have been closing the selections well before any intermediate reversal signals. It may well be that this strategy is a mistake on this cycle-- that gains will be much larger if we wait for the intermediate reversal signal. Having been so thoroughly scorched in March and April, it's not a chance I am currently willing to take.
There's the problem. I'm not the only one who has developed that fear. Which means that a whole helluva lot of shorts may have been covered in anticipation of this widely advertised bounce that EVERYONE knows is on the way. If that's the case, the market is going to be much, much weaker for much much longer than most people expect. If an individual stock chart dictates, I'll add a short in a South Philly second, regardless of the fact that short term market indicators look Dover Sole. Because as we all know, there's no such thing in a bear market, and maybe, just maybe, that's what this is.
Future results may differ, of course.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 25 2006, 05:52 AM)
I think the mistake that a lot of folks are making is allowing short term indicators to make them believe that a bottom is in the works. I see the same indications that they do, and yes, a short term cycle low is in the works. But I'm looking at the intermediate and longer term indicators at the same time and I ain't buyin' it. Buying this low is like playing Russian Roulette, with 5 bullets instead of one.
I see whay you are saying.
Is it comparable to look at longer term cycles by using the monthlies?
Ive decided to wait till next week and let this work itself out a bit more as those foreign etfs I posted last night dont seem to be finding support, seem to have further downside etc..(from my view)...the miners etc. seem to have the same pattern....that hui monthly chart(with only a few days left) doesnt have a screaming buy on it on a longer term perspective.....Im dipping a toe in for a trade...but with a 3 day weekend ahead, no since in buying today.....
Have a great memorial day weekend everyone
Check out Crapposoft...think it may run for the gap..
I might go long on full margin today.
Pre-market looking very good.
Gold stocks and Internet stocks are looking the best right now.
Pre-market looking very good.
Gold stocks and Internet stocks are looking the best right now.
Bought WMT
wyndy, buying SIL and PAAS? or the higher flyers like NXG or TRE? Im going for some big trades today but taking out some ammo later for weekend studies....
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 25 2006, 06:34 AM)
Microsoft: Ballmer indicates that Vista will probably slip further than January. Maybe that has something to do with all of the MSN problems?
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
Not sure if you saw post on M2M this morning...see if you guys can go tto hotmail or just msn if you are using firefox....looks as if you have to have IE7 to even view their boards.....desperation?
SMH up .38!!! Yeehaw!!! Moving up stops.....
I need to sell half my RMBS soon.....hoping for another big day first....may be getting greedy, plan to sell half position only soon...
Seems we may have a big move off the bell then may flounder later in the day....
I need to sell half my RMBS soon.....hoping for another big day first....may be getting greedy, plan to sell half position only soon...
Seems we may have a big move off the bell then may flounder later in the day....
QUOTE(Tzu @ May 25 2006, 09:10 AM)
wyndy, buying SIL and PAAS? or the higher flyers like NXG or TRE? Im going for some big trades today but taking out some ammo later for weekend studies....
PAAS and SSRI are core holdings. I haven't sold any of them in 4 years.
I won't touch SIL again. Made a fortune on that stock right before it got shanked. When I score that huge, I usually stay away. Re-gaming a broken stock usually results in disappointment.
I bought TRE, SA, and USGL yesterday.
Bought some GOLD and EGO the day before.
I'll probably go with some big caps like GG and GLG today, since they are much easier to trade.
OK, off to Starbucks for my breakfast...
SAFM tanking....chicken panic....sell first, ask questions later....checking these out this weekend for trades.......flu panic vs. antedote rumours play probably keeps them entertaining for awhile..
HAvent check out CALM lately...wonder what the short interest is like onthese lately?
HAvent check out CALM lately...wonder what the short interest is like onthese lately?
Attn: Tzu
9:20 [EP] UBS lifts El Paso price target to $20
9:20 [EP] UBS lifts El Paso price target to $20
QUOTE(Tzu @ May 25 2006, 09:22 AM)
SAFM tanking....chicken panic....sell first, ask questions later....checking these out this weekend for trades.......flu panic vs. antedote rumours play probably keeps them entertaining for awhile..
HAvent check out CALM lately...wonder what the short interest is like onthese lately?
HAvent check out CALM lately...wonder what the short interest is like onthese lately?
Funny how that thing cratered the day after Cramer pushed it.
Wow, I got lucky on that one. Dumped in on a Chop House upgrade the day before.
I still have core as well...long a few trades already....adding TRE here
My AMGN is getting a bid..
My AMGN is getting a bid..
chips & dip analyst at wachovia punted RYL because "orders are down"
stocks down 40% ytd, 30% mtd
stocks down 40% ytd, 30% mtd
QUOTE(wndysrf @ May 25 2006, 09:21 AM)
QUOTE(Tzu @ May 25 2006, 09:10 AM)
wyndy, buying SIL and PAAS? or the higher flyers like NXG or TRE? Im going for some big trades today but taking out some ammo later for weekend studies....
PAAS and SSRI are core holdings. I haven't sold any of them in 4 years.
I won't touch SIL again. Made a fortune on that stock right before it got shanked. When I score that huge, I usually stay away. Re-gaming a broken stock usually results in disappointment.
I bought TRE, SA, and USGL yesterday.
Bought some GOLD and EGO the day before.
I'll probably go with some big caps like GG and GLG today, since they are much easier to trade.
OK, off to Starbucks for my breakfast...
I'm surprised that you didn't mention IAG which has been behaving fairly well in the downturn.
QUOTE(wndysrf @ May 25 2006, 08:23 AM)
Attn: Tzu
9:20 [EP] UBS lifts El Paso price target to $20
9:20 [EP] UBS lifts El Paso price target to $20
Sweet!
BRCM coming off the lower bbs....just bought...
Have to do some work today .....threw in stops at lows....just in case I do the check at noon, then cuss the market update...
CC up all of two cents.
Brokeback.
Brokeback.
10min selloff now over in RYL
QUOTE(Tzu @ May 25 2006, 09:13 AM)
QUOTE(mmoy @ May 25 2006, 06:34 AM)
Microsoft: Ballmer indicates that Vista will probably slip further than January. Maybe that has something to do with all of the MSN problems?
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
Someone posted that OEX is tomorrow for the metals. I will look at buying
back tomorrow or later. PMs are up right now but could just get shanked again tomorrow during the day.
Ports in cash right now. I'll check WSE in the office and decide on playing today or not. Having fun going through Spivak with our son now that he's healthy again and eager to study. And no, you don't have to be a masochist to appreciate Spivak.
Not sure if you saw post on M2M this morning...see if you guys can go tto hotmail or just msn if you are using firefox....looks as if you have to have IE7 to even view their boards.....desperation?
I had no problem accessing msn boards with Firefart
COH is on a mission to prove that expensive handbags SHOULD be ugly.
Glad I closed the puts yesterday. Better to be lucky than skillful.
Glad I closed the puts yesterday. Better to be lucky than skillful.
BS downgraded XMSR to underperform this morning, so it must be time to watch for accumulation. Only +D I see is on the force index though. Big round 10 might be an area to look for a bounce.
Only +D I see is on the force index though. Big round 10 might be an area to look for a bounce.QUOTE(wndysrf @ May 25 2006, 06:03 AM)
I might go long on full margin today.
Pre-market looking very good.
Gold stocks and Internet stocks are looking the best right now.
Pre-market looking very good.
Gold stocks and Internet stocks are looking the best right now.
Sold 1/2 my EBAY on the opening gap at 32.88. 13% is not a bad move for a three-day play on a bigcrapper. But not too thrilled about the staying power of a giant gapup candle, especially on a stock with zero short interest. So thought I'd be prudent and take some off the table. I see resistance at 33.30-33.80, so it could work higher. Longer-term, it might tag 35-36.
Move was incited by some "news" about a ad deal with Yahoo!. BFD, of course.
gap'n'crap?
pop'n'drop?
fake'n'shake?
pop'n'drop?
fake'n'shake?
run'n'stun?
Needless to say, those posts will probably mark today's lows.
What IS this frabjous news that sends GM to nearly 28, up 1.31?
I guess no one else is here.
If you don't have anything to say, you shouldn't let that stop you from posting. I never do.
If you don't have anything to say, you shouldn't let that stop you from posting. I never do.
I think this pop up was for the mastercard IPO. IF So look out BELOW
QUOTE(Drano @ May 25 2006, 10:18 AM)
What IS this frabjous news that sends GM to nearly 28, up 1.31?
Some analyst must have wandered in here by accident.
Speaking of gap opens and nipple tops, check out YHOO today. Barrons did a cover piece last weekend on "The Unloved Giant". YHOO up 14% in four days since the story.
Those Barron's touts having had too much staying power. So I'm tempted to take a darkside shot soon at Yoo-Hoo. Chart pattern very different from EBAY. EBAY has been in decline since 1/05 and had dropped 50% and was at l/t support at 28.50-29.50. YHOO topped in 1/06 and could be beginning a longer decline.
YHOO has fwd P/E of 46, GOOG 30, EBAY 25.
Those Barron's touts having had too much staying power. So I'm tempted to take a darkside shot soon at Yoo-Hoo. Chart pattern very different from EBAY. EBAY has been in decline since 1/05 and had dropped 50% and was at l/t support at 28.50-29.50. YHOO topped in 1/06 and could be beginning a longer decline.
YHOO has fwd P/E of 46, GOOG 30, EBAY 25.
vonage getting beat for a second day
-25% from the ipo
-25% from the ipo
Bullion/physical is all I want ....
No miners ...
No ETF's ...
oh, and no physical uranium ...
my wife has a hard time removing the radiation stains from her hands ...
No miners ...
No ETF's ...
oh, and no physical uranium ...
my wife has a hard time removing the radiation stains from her hands ...
Good morning:
Tim Ords latest:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
Seems to echo some of Doc's sentiments this morning re: short/intermediate term indicators. His focus is the McC ossilator reading VS the summation index. Bottom line is that it's ALMOST time to take off his short position, but not yet.
Tim Ords latest:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
Seems to echo some of Doc's sentiments this morning re: short/intermediate term indicators. His focus is the McC ossilator reading VS the summation index. Bottom line is that it's ALMOST time to take off his short position, but not yet.
Still short RL (Ralph Lipschitz), though pared off half my position at the recent lows given yearnings this week.
The crooks gapped it up on yearnings today. Already completely erased. Would like to see it back at 47-48 or even lower. Move down only looks half over to me, given the b'down from that wedgie. No short interest to cushion the blow.
The crooks gapped it up on yearnings today. Already completely erased. Would like to see it back at 47-48 or even lower. Move down only looks half over to me, given the b'down from that wedgie. No short interest to cushion the blow.
Waiting for the SOX to turn up before loading up the long wagons.
20k GM employees accept the buyout. Company originally budgeted for 20k, but the deadline is still a month away.
Bulls rejoicing today will be shocked when the bottom falls out of the under funded pension. 20+k employees will receive lump sum distributions in July from the fund. Govt has already mandated that any future asset sales be used to shore up the pension plan.
Bulls rejoicing today will be shocked when the bottom falls out of the under funded pension. 20+k employees will receive lump sum distributions in July from the fund. Govt has already mandated that any future asset sales be used to shore up the pension plan.
First two p/c ratios this morning were .77
The incredible streak of .90 or better has been broken, after 9 trading days.
The incredible streak of .90 or better has been broken, after 9 trading days.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.