There's nothing like starting over mid month. It appears stocks are under pressure.

I believe I kick started July off with AEM and a fib at 1/2 back. Looks like we have about 8 days of cause for another move as it grinds 2/3 back inside the trading range from high to low. There is a fight going on, but supply hasn't gained the upper hand to break price down. I can see what looks like a probe on Wednesday and a low close, but today at least didn't break down.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1152922415.png

added 200 more ounces of Physical today after the close. What are ya gonna do ????

Back from vacation, having spent 2 weeks in unusually sunny Scotland.

Apart from the meltup on the day I flew out-- June 30th-- we seem to be consolidating in a pair of 4th waves. If so, we should see a 5th wave up that challenges gap resistance at 153.28.

There is no short term pattern, though we may be forming a short term megaphone top.

A case can be made that 5 waves are in and the strong 3rd wave accounts for the abbreviated 5th. That alternate count moves red 3 to where blue iii is, and replaces red 3 with red 5.

By far, the most important feature on all the charts is the uptrend line running from June 13th.

Uptrend line:

The importance of the uptrend line cannot be underestimated.

It's apparent on the indices and most individual miner charts.

EGO, FCX, GG, and MDG have already violated it.

war markets are trecherous.
to me, the charts, the last few days, look like consolidation. the miners have been acting like stocks. not gold shares. i am long but unless something seems like an opportunity, i am not adding. i expect the metal to go higher on war fears. be careful. i am still waiting to add to my metal holdings,although i think hadjins buy will in retrospect be seen as very profitable. volatility is the name of the game, it appears from here on out. dharma

Silver must start to confirm the upmove period or we will eventually head back down.

tfh, you may be right. however, i have stated here over and over again, i think gold is the lead dog and will make new forever highs, i doubt that silver will do that. silver was $10 cheaper when gold was @720. dharma

Unfortunately, gold shares are now completely disconnected from the gold price. Mining companies are being treated as broad market equities which are tracking the US indexes without much regard to the gold price itself. My intuition from the slaughter back in May was that using gold shares to leverage the inherent gold price was not working anymore. GLD/SLV has likely extracted a significant amount of capital from the gold share majors as a result (ie, NEM).

YTD Performance:

Gold +26.5%
GLD +25.81%
HUI +14.6%
XAU +7.13%

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?&#...6;HUI,$XAU

To me, utilizing these ETFs or gold futures is a much better way to leverage the gold price. If the broader indices are truly resuming their US secular bear market decline, then the gold shares are likely to go along for the ride down while the gold price continues to trade as a global currency. Same instance follows the Energy shares as well. CL is trading close to 80 while the OSX is clearly lagging, this indicator says to utilize the underlying commodities itself.

YTD Performance:

WTIC Oil +25.35%
OIH +8.75%
XLE +11.55%

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$WTIC,OIH,XLE

I know you have stated that in the past and while I doubted you then I don't doubt you now.

If world events continue at this rate, you can forget about seeing spot silver @ $11 and spot gold @ $600 for the next 10 years.

3 peaks and a domed house on PMU? I'm very long on this one. Other specs are MMK, GLE, CDY, sold my EGI at 1.28.



Tim Wood on this pattern

Index Trading:

I was unaware of GDX, a market vector that follows the $GDM.

http://www.amex.com/?href=/etf/prodInf/EtP...duct_Symbol=GDX

It is also closely co-related to the more widely followed HUI.

I've traded NEM and XAU options as market index proxies in the past. NEM's co-relationship as an outperformer up and down has waned since its addition to the S&P 500. XAU options are too thinly traded and require a large premium for the market maker.

This looks like a good trading vehicle, which, coupled with GLD should provide excellent vehicles to hedge, dong or short.

For the star gazers, I want opinions on this matter.


Source

Noone is concern that with all this war news that gold and silver have been struggling.

Yeah, what the heck happened? Did Hezzbollah and Israel make nice?

When I went to bed 7 hours ago the POG was up $7

War news is up and down.

I don't understand the gains in the buck today. WTF is up with that?

Long term this is still the place to be, I still think the Fed is done for now.

I don't know, but miners sure seem like dying fish. I may need to reassess my entire thinking on the miners. Maybe get out of them completely in all honesty.

I am Maddness...haven't you been negative on gold for a year plus ?

hadj, i go through the same thought process. its tough enough to get the direction right, but then to get the direction correct, and have the shares go down, is frustrating to say the least. for now, i am hanging in w/my shares. although i have considered the strategy of having more gld and slv. we will see what evolves. or just putting it all in the metal and forget about it.
the dollar in past times was considered a safe haven dharma
ps. gold is @ 650, i like those struggles. 400s are a distant memory!

Well, i really havn't traded this sector since Feb this year. I'm not bearish nor bullish.

Haven't we gone through this on a weekly basis over the past month or so?

Weak Mon. and Tues., then back up into the weekend?

The miners have always felt like "dying fish", but on the whole, only a year or so ago the HUI was at 180 - now barely getting bitten with gold down $20, and over 320?

Lets see what happens, the dollar as a safe haven....hmmm. We'll see how safe it is in the next six months as our economy comes to a screetching halt.

OH ..your point about our ecomony slowing down.. My frustration is with the miners. IF/When we slow I'm afraid the miners willl just follow the Broads down. I'm seriously considing converting it all to GLD and increasing my personal physical holdings; and FORGETTING about it.

Doesn't Russell only buy physical as an "investment", and miners are strickly a "trade" ?

Could it be that in fact the HUI outperformed gold when it bounced from 260 to 350 in the matter of 1 – ½ weeks? Now gold is simply catching up. My guess is that the HUI and gold went up too far too fast. I mean we had an unusually short correction compared to times past. I don’t know what to make of gold stocks. We had a pretty strong rally considering it was summer time and it seems early to start a recovery; but gold stocks have fooled me before.

Wall of worry. A salmon's fate?

Sigh....uptrend broken, I guess we go to 300 now.

Everything seemed so positive last week...so ready to rally. What happened? I thought the trendline would hold. I guess its never that easy.

Yep,

Here are the charts.

And a look at the dollar ready to break out in a possible 3rd of a third.

Point and figure Bear? I'm impressed. Sell here in Silver and a bearish engulfing on record CBOT volume today in the Gold.

in a war market, the jury is still out. volatility is the name of the game. the deflationists never looked at a chart of hm in the depression. from 3 to 144. dharma

GOLD:

I spent a couple of hours Sunday night playing with Gold charts.

By midnight, this is what I came up with, but Gold was up $8.00 at the time, so it seemed foolish to post such a chart.

I'm not prepared to speculate on the wave structure since 1982 or even 1999.

However, the December, 2004 high was important and the long sideways correction after that was equally important.

In commodities, 5th waves can go parabolic. In stocks, the parabolic moves are 3rd waves so you always have a chance to exit if you don't succumb to the 4th wave. In commodities, there may not be that second chance.

The rally into the May highs should correct in an abc. I think we're entering the "c" wave.

I've suggested some Elliott support zones.

TFH:

How did you draw that silver P&F?

It seems to create a box for every 6 and 1/2 cents.

I presume it's for very short term trades.

The traditional P&F shows support at $9.50 and has a target that would make Prechter salivate, and far too freaking unbelievable.

So, the war/terror premium was taken out of the gold price yesterday. If bonds break down and stocks get some support we'll know where the flight to quality is going.

Yeah. This is a tough time to rely on your charts for guidance, a little too volatile to predict. 620-640 seems like a pretty solid floor. Who knows with the stocks. I'm hangin' like I have the past 3+ years.

It will be interesting to see if DX , now at a creek of 87 , reacts away from that resistance area

@some point, betweeen now and sept the gold market will return to below 600, finishing this correction. the down move from the highs was 23 market days. the high on 7/12 was 20 market days, so there is a good chance the highs for the correction have been seen(this analysis is for xau). for gold the highs were 7/14 and that is 21 market days to the high. good symetry. the picture has not changed for me, november will be very emotional and new forever highs in the 1st quarter of 07. bv is correct, commodities the extensions occur in the 5th wave. i think gold has a long ways to go!!!!! dharma

another thought, 714 high, 562 low=152. rally high =666-152projected low =514. possibility. dharma

I get a slightly lower number than you but I am using 730 as a high and 540 as a low. Not much difference I get 490. I plan to buy Gold coins from 580 on down a bit at a time.

540 gold? That could put the HUI where - all the way practically back at 260? Can't see the HUI finding a bottom at 300 if 540 gold is in the cards ... ?

Possible.

I started selling some mining shares today, odds are this is a low !!

FWIW, they took my SSRI in single fills, 1700 and 1500 shares. They took my HL that way too. Regardless of price, I'll be selling 40% of my positions in the immediate future.

I let LOTs and Lots of profit vanish.

Bear I bookmarked the chart off of a Gold Eagle post this weekend. That 3.50 hanging out there is something.

I've seen them take it all and in pieces. Doesn't seem to make much difference past the next few hours I've found. I wouldn't make too much of it. While we had a decent rally off the lows in the HUI this afternoon we just might retest the area of breakdown. Not buying.

Finally, my cable interenet is back at home since Saturday, now off to camp for two days.

AEM ..two weeks of cause now and a little spring of near term trading range and some demand to keep it from falling so far

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1153273052.png

HUI:

I'd want to watch 300.

It's P&F support and the continuing level of the broken uptrend line.

The rally off the May 2005 lows was a clear impulse up.

It should correct in an abc pattern.

A typical abc is a 5-3-5.

This abc appears to have a 3-3 pattern so far.

A 3-3-5 is called a "flat". Normally it's a rangebound correction that trades in a rectangle.

There are "irregular flats" that are 3-3-5 patterns..

It is a 3-3-5 type of triangle. The "a" wave corrects the impulse (i.e. it trades to somewhere close to 61.8%). The "b" wave MORE THAN corrects the "a" wave ( i.e. it WILL exceed a 61.8% correction of "a" and can even surpass the top of the prior impulse). The "c" wave is 5 waves, but is the shortest, and does not reach wave "a"s extreme.

That parabolic move, as evidenced by MACD, says the rally from 2000 is not over.

It is for this reason that I believe that this is a mere correction in the uptrend and not a collapse.

Further, I believe that those waiting for a traditional abc where the "c" wave equals the "a" wave will be left behind on the platform while the train prematurely leaves the station.

Despite the hit the miners have taken over the last few days, the metal is now outperforming to the downside. Miners lead in advances and lag in corrections.

"Take heart, for this too shall pass".

HUI:

Duelling head and shoulders:

The Thornicator and All Things Real:

Been going over the Thorns and I have 16 out of 40 (40%) related to commodities, (mining, drilling fabricating etc) giving that area a very high weighting. They are:

CELL
CENX
EXP
ACI
BTU
ENER
HLX
GLG
CMC
FTO
UPL
GRP
VLO
RIO
ATI
STLD

Only FTO (Frontier Oil Co.) and HLX (Helix Energy) are long. I see that Helix moved to NYSE from the Duck this week so this might have had something to do with this month's manic run-up during "the correction". Anyway, everything else is short.

For you PMS freaks, GLG reversed to short at $36 on Monday having been long for 3 weeks from $35. GLG moved from $30 to $40 basically, so the model only caught 10% of the mooove. That's not important to me. Well, it would be if I could devise I system that would do better but so far no success there.

On the whole only 5 thorns are long and 35 are short and the Thornicator comes in at a cool -42 (-80{all short} to +80{all long})\.)

The stocks can be viewed at:

The Thorns

Mines Management.

I'm not sure it's a good idea to go long or short based on short term TA during options expiration week.

i went long mgn and put moc order. filled on 1100@ 6.55! oh well! dharma

well done imho

Can anyone help me on TA for Barrick - ABX?
Looking for buy an entry point.

Thanks

hey cg, how have you been?! dharma

It has a solid uptrend line over the past several years...currently at just under 28. May or may not get there, but that would be a buy.

Looks like its been touching it every 9-12 months, and it touched it last month, so maybe it wont do it again.