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aussiebear
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http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u


aussiebear
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Not much of anything happening today. All Ords -0.1% and most sectors are in the red. Telecom down the most, -1.9% followed by Property Trusts, -1.7%. IT is leader on the upside, +0.6% with Materials next, +0.5%.

In the miners, BHP and RIO have minimal gains and in the golds, Newcrest doing a low volume pullback after recent gains, -0.5%, Lihir +1.4% and Newmont +0.5%.

Oils are in a dive: Woodside -1.4% and Santos -1.5%.

Asia mixed: Sth Korea +0.6%, China -0.4%, Nikkers +0.4%.




aussiebear
China Has $15.3 Bln Trade Surplus, 2nd-Biggest Ever

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China reported its second-largest ever trade surplus, undermining efforts by the government to cool an investment boom.

The gap narrowed to $15.3 billion last month from a record $18.8 billion in August, the Beijing-based customs bureau said today on its Web site. For the first nine months, China's trade surplus reached $110 billion, exceeding last year's total.

Premier Wen Jiabao calls the soaring surplus one of China's biggest economic ``problems'' because it's strained trade ties with the U.S. and Europe and flooded the economy with cash, complicating his efforts to slow investment. The gap is adding pressure on China to let its currency gain faster to stem money inflows and avoid trade sanctions.


aussiebear
Australian Employment Gains 31,400 in September

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employers hired six times as many workers as expected in September and the jobless rate held at a 30-year low. The nation's currency rose and bonds fell as traders bet the central bank will raise interest rates again this year.

Employment increased 31,500 after gaining a revised 23,100 in August. The jobless rate was 4.8 percent as employment rose for the 11th straight month, the Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney.

The economy has created 258,000 jobs this year, worsening a shortage of skilled workers. That's fueled wage increases and prompted central bank Governor Glenn Stevens to say yesterday he is more likely to raise interest rates than cut them. The government today announced A$837 million ($625 million) of subsidies to train unskilled workers.


alceringa
Mid afternoon here. Bloody hot. 34C/94F in my shed with a brisk, hot north wind. Worse than forecast.

Total fire ban today in the state.

Old crop wheat limit up today in the USA. New crop traded higher again, also.

Saskasatoonie wheat reports tomorrow, I think.

AWB.AX still mired in the Oil for Food mess, plus looks like no new wheat crop. Estimate of 87% Australian crop loss my be understating it, what with this week's weather.

Tale of two wheat plays-

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alceringa
More weather news/noise.............


Bad Weather Shutsdown Alaska Pipeline

Wondering how they keep the water in the helo's hot.....
Charmin
Wednesday Oct. 11
"U.S interest rates rose just after 2:00 PM when meeting minutes to the last FOMC meeting were released. The minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve may not be “done” raising the Fed Fund rate after all. Reaction in the bond market was immediate given that the market already was anticipating at least two 0.25% reductions in the Fed Fund rate by the first quarter of 2007. Bond prices fell again. The down trend for 10 year U.S. treasury yields was broken.

At best, FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday have placed a short term cap on U.S. equity indices and bond prices."

http://dvtechtalk.com/October/October12.htm
alceringa
Eurotickblasters have been engaged.

All time closing high print on the Footsie is 6,137.10.

Looks like the brit-bulls might make a run at it today.
aussiebear
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Well, looks like today's action gives us a short term top with a one-way trip to a recent support level about to happen. All Ords closed -0.4% with only two sectors finishing the day green, Materials and Financials both +0.2%. Out of the numerous reds, Property Trusts closed down the most, -2.1%.

Miners didn't do too well: BHP -0.1% and RIO -0.3% and the golds closed mixed.

Oils did a plummet: Woodside and Santos both -1.9%.

Over in Asia the action was an each-way bet ranging from India +1% to China -0.4%.

And on to UK/Europe:

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http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u


aussiebear
QUOTE(Charmin @ Oct 12 2006, 03:42 PM)
Wednesday Oct. 11
"U.S interest rates rose just after 2:00 PM when meeting minutes to the last FOMC meeting were released. The minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve may not be “done” raising the Fed Fund rate after all. Reaction in the bond market was immediate given that the market already was anticipating at least two 0.25% reductions in the Fed Fund rate by the first quarter of 2007. Bond prices fell again. The down trend for 10 year U.S. treasury yields was broken.

At best, FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday have placed a short term cap on U.S. equity indices and bond prices."

http://dvtechtalk.com/October/October12.htm
*




Oops.... rolleyes.gif



Peek Paper
deleted (for a few sentences, I was actually pretending this was a "market") ... what an effing joke this criminal enterprise has become.

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's central bank governor on Monday raised the country's main lending rate by 200 percentage points to 500 percent in a drive against skyrocketing inflation and a severe economic crisis.

Central bank governor Gideon Gono also said Zimbabwe's major financial houses -- commercial and merchant banks, building societies and discount houses -- had met a September 30 deadline giving them nearly a year to raise their capitalisation to $10 million.
Tzu
CHK upped to overweight at Prudential
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...WaebqLqWmde5nJG
Tzu
Nice move in QQQQ just now with the 100k block trade.
QQQQ erases yesterdays losses plus gains 9 cents. Surely it will back off some but still, it seems all that is happening is people are getting shook out and big volume is waiting near the low prints...

MCD doing good. Gotta have them Big Macs and premium coffee.
Tzu
Crambus
Tzu
ohmy.gif
Tzu
Someone got lucky on a trade with LNG at .01

10/12/06 08:05:14 24.85 24.85 26.75 0
10/12/06 08:28:44 24.85 0.01 26.75 0
10/12/06 08:48:28 24.85 0.01 26.75 0
10/12/06 08:49:05 24.85 24.85 26.75 0
10/12/06 08:52:19 24.85 24.85 0.01 0
10/12/06 08:52:22 24.85 24.85 26.75 0
10/12/06 08:53:04 0.01 23.60 26.75 100

I wonder how long it takes to get reversed? Nat gas inventories may be the catalyst to get this thing moving one way or another.
Lots of air beneath but way Dover Sole.
Tzu


http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...qaebqLqWmdq4mJe

WOW! What a portfolio!
Check out their holdings. Look at all the options
DJ Amaranth Reports Holdings As Of Sept 30

10/11/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The following table describes the holdings of Amaranth Advisors LLC, listed according to their value as of Sept. 30, as disclosed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Holdings are described by their type - typically common shares (COM), puts (PUT), calls (CALL) or notes (NOTE). The number of shares or the principal amount of notes is also indicated.

Tzu
INTC upgraded at UBS
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...WaebqLqWmdqXmtm
potatohead
DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $35.35 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.21%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.22%
Weighted Average: 5.23%
High-rate submitted: 5.24%
Low-rate submitted: 5.18%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $12.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.23%
Drano
QUOTE(Tzu @ Oct 12 2006, 08:04 AM)
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...qaebqLqWmdq4mJe

WOW! What a portfolio!
Check out their holdings. Look at all the options
DJ Amaranth Reports Holdings As Of Sept 30 

10/11/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The following table describes the holdings of Amaranth Advisors LLC, listed according to their value as of Sept. 30, as disclosed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Holdings are described by their type - typically common shares (COM), puts (PUT), calls (CALL) or notes (NOTE). The number of shares or the principal amount of notes is also indicated.
*


So they were long the miners -- GG, PAAS, GSS, NXG.

All of which have gotten killed. Which is the cause, which is the effect huh.gif
Drano
Now Julio Labovitz's cousin Shawn Labovitz has written me with another financial offer that will make me rich. I don't know where I'm going to keep all that money.
Dr Bob Poodit
dow 12k hats?
potatohead
DJ Fed Accepts $8.75 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $8.75 Bln
Total submitted: $37.8 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $289 Mln
Total submitted: $6.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.27%
Weighted Average: 5.27%
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.23%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $8.461 Bln
Total submitted: $27.9 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.25%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $3.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.25%
Roger7485
Crapvision

"Best of times, Dow 11,900"
"Best of times, SnP 500 52 week high"

ANALyst: "This year we were looking at a PERFECT economy."(Wtf)

On the oil inventories they quoted several ANALysts saying how MUCH oil was going to fall today, including some stuff about it dropping to 55 then 50 rapidly.

Im buying oil and selling market here, Ill probably just get rolled.
Peek Paper
Pretty bullish out there, BlueSky Vision is all over the party today.

: ) doin some SPX weekly puts here ...

"echo that roger 7-4-8er-5, we got a payload heading south on the East River, dippin' its wings and dumpin' greenbacks, good buddy...Bernake takin flying lessons. 'Got NORAD on alert..."
Drano
TOL zooming up.
DrStool
that's around $4B net drain by the Fed today.
LeeWhee
QUOTE(Roger7485 @ Oct 12 2006, 06:51 AM)
Crapvision

"Best of times, Dow 11,900"
"Best of times, SnP 500 52 week high"

ANALyst: "This year we were looking at a PERFECT economy."(Wtf)

On the oil inventories they quoted several ANALysts saying how MUCH oil was going to fall today, including some stuff about it dropping to 55 then 50 rapidly.

Im buying oil and selling market here, Ill probably just get rolled.
*



Most of these guys also believe that 2007 will be a huge up year like 1995. If the economy is "perfect" now, I guess they're assuming it will be more perfect next year.
DrStool
Fed does a net drain of $4.5 billion. details and analysis in the WSE Pro Fed report (*subscription required) after the TIPS auction results at 1:00PM ET.
FeedFool
Worst should be over in gold stock especially if HUI doesn’t take out the last low during the scam week.
lineup32
Fed minutes snipes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20060920.htm

Meeting participants noted that consumer spending going forward would be supported by the higher levels of personal income indicated by recent revisions to the national income and product accounts, by further gains in employment, and by the decline in consumer energy prices over recent months

Participants took note of the jump in labor compensation in the first half of the year, but commented that the increase likely reflected in part the exercise of stock options.

However, considerable uncertainty was expressed regarding the ultimate extent of the downturn in the housing sector and the degree to which the slowing in housing activity and the deceleration in home prices would affect consumption and other expenditures going forward
Dr Bob Poodit
cramer: buy homies the bottom is in
DrStool
FCB participation in the TIPS auction will be the key to whether this is THE top or not.

Details and analysis in the WSE Pro Fed report (*subscription required) after the TIPS auction results at 1:00PM ET.
DrStool
Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!

You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well. Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.

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If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.

Many tanks for joining us!

Doc
Dr Bob Poodit
crude rising despite above exp inv
LeeWhee
QUOTE(Dr Bob Poodit @ Oct 12 2006, 07:22 AM)
cramer: buy homies the bottom is in
*



He so funny.

Krammer looks at the chart, sees the bubblers going up...ergo, the bottom is in.

Seems to confuse technicals with funnymentals.

Even the most hard-core bubbler bear could see that 185ish on the HGX was a likely i/t bottom, especially with the broader market in bottoming formation as well.

Bubblers could easily rise another 5-10% (to HGX 230-240 or even 248) without changing the bearish config on the chart.

If bubblers get above that zone and continue rising in a constructive manner, Krammer may be on to something. But unless/until that happens, have to assume we are seeing a mean-revert, dead-cat bounce that will take the bubblers back to 185 or lower at some point in the future.

The first HGX rally off the 8/05 top lasted three months and the index hung in there for another three months before the next leg down. So far, the current rally has lasted exactly three months. So if past is prologue, we could see a near-term bubbler top with the next leg down to come sometime after Jan 07.

Waaaay too early to call a bottom on the bubblers. And with Krammer's track record of picking bottoms, have a feeling he's dead-wrong here as per usual. But it may not become obvious for another 3-6 months.

potatohead
*DJ Fed Seeks Dealer Bids For Coupon Pass By 11.15 A.M. EST

WTF I thought they spent the last 3 weeks telling everyone they were fighting inflation
wndysrf
Wow, full blown panic in the restaurants

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LeeWhee
QUOTE(wndysrf @ Oct 12 2006, 08:01 AM)
Wow, full blown panic in the restaurants

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*



Brick wall coming up for MCD b/w 44-46. High today so far is 42.44.
lineup32
Worst story about local housing I have ever seen this morning i.e. Sonoma
RE & impact on related jobs.

link: http://www1.pressdemocrat.com/apps/pbcs.dl...304/1033/NEWS01
LeeWhee
Interesting juncture for the techsters.

Using SWH, XLK and IXCO as my clues, could see a s/t top any minute now. SWH is at its channel top. XLK just tagged its 2006 high. IXCO back to its early 2004 high.

These levels should not stop the tech rally, just pause it perhaps. SWH and XLK much stronger than IXCO (still 5% below its 2006 high). Bigcrappers rule right now.

Ultimately, super-important i/t and l/t targets likely await for these bellwethers:

XLK: 24.75-25.54 (+9.7% to +12%), 28.28 (+25%)
SWH: 43.24-43.60 (+9%), 50-51 (+28%)
IXCO: 1070 (+5%), 1104-1150 (+8.5% to +13%)

Don't know when the first of these levels get hit. Maybe in the 4Q or maybe in 1Q07. But I believe the lower end will get hit and will very possibly represent a major tech top of i/t or l/t proportion.

This means that the bigcraptechsters should have b/w 8.5%-12% more to go before brick-walling. This would probably put the Nadsaq at 2486-2580, the NDX at 45-47, and the SPX at 1420-1450.
Anicipate a min 15-20% selloff to follow once these levels are achieved.
potatohead
Operation Date: 10/12/2006 Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time: 10:45 AM Close Time: 11:15 AM Settlement Date: 10/13/2006 Maturity/Call Date Range: 08/15/2008 - 03/15/2009
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $1,428
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $8,193
cwd
QUOTE(Tzu @ Oct 12 2006, 07:04 AM)



It sounds like the Borkers need to unload some CHK. Chk paid the DFW airport a bonus of approximately 190 million FRNs for the right to drill for nat, gas on the airport grounds. That was just before the Nat Gas prices plummeted. laugh.gif
Speakeasy
Water running uphill.

[attachmentid=70643]

Plus, we have a whole raft of new ETF's. That must make a hundred or more new keno tables in the last few months.

QUOTE
PowerShares Capital Management to Launch 11 Intelligent ETFs on the American Stock Exchange October 12, 2006  Friday October 6, 2:00 pm ET    CHICAGO, IL--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 6, 2006 -- PowerShares Capital Management LLC continues to "Lead the Intelligent ETF Revolution," announcing today the expected launch of 11 new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) next Thursday, October 12, 2006. These new PowerShares will be based on dynamic Intellidex indexes, and include one broad-based, two industry and eight sector portfolios. The ETF names and ticker symbols are listed below:  Broad Market  PIQ - PowerShares Dynamic MagniQuant Portfolio    Industry  PJB - PowerShares Dynamic Banking Sector Portfolio  PTJ - PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Services Sector Portfolio    Sector  PYZ - PowerShares Dynamic Basic Materials Sector Portfolio  PEZ - PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Discretionary Sector Portfolio  PSL - PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Staples Sector Portfolio  PXI - PowerShares Dynamic Energy Sector Portfolio  PFI - PowerShares Dynamic Financials Sector Portfolio  PRN - PowerShares Dynamic Industrials Sector Portfolio  PTH - PowerShares Dynamic Healthcare Sector Portfolio  PTF - PowerShares Dynamic Technology Sector Portfolio 


btw dmm, good call yestidy on the new high. I shoulda known that any troublesome area will be bipassed with a gapup by the Pigmen. tongue.gif
cwd
QUOTE(Dr Bob Poodit @ Oct 12 2006, 08:40 AM)
dow 12k hats?
*




CNBS hyping Dow highs. GOOD TIMES ARE HERE. blink.gif
cwd
QUOTE(wndysrf @ Oct 12 2006, 10:01 AM)
Wow, full blown panic in the restaurants

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There must be a shortage of fast food. laugh.gif : rolleyes.gif
wndysrf
Party hats ready for 12,000?

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Drano
Fast food should do okay as people cut back. No more PF Chang's overpriced fake Asian garbage -- Asian chicken salad at Wendy's instead.

I'm gonna buy stock in Shorty's favorite fine dining experience:

wndysrf
Put/call

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Bears simply will not give up
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