http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

A bit of a dip to start the week. All Ords -0.5% with only one lonely green sector, Healthcare +0.2%. In the red sectors, Telecom is doing a fairly nasty dive, -3.9% with the next in line being Utilities -0.7%.

In the miners, golds aren't doing so badly: Newcrest +1.3%, Newmont +1.4% and Lihir -0.7%. Heavyweights BHP and RIO are in the red, -0.5% and -0.8%.

Oils are mixed: Woodside +0.4% and Santos -1.8%.

Asia on a downer, led by Nikkers -0.8%.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Saturday that OPEC will have to cut oil production further when it meets in Nigeria next month, and that a $60 U.S. crude oil price was "moderate."

"Our Abuja meeting has no choice but to accept a cut," Attiyah told Reuters, in the hardest comments yet from an OPEC official to indicate that a further reduction in supply will be required. "The market is oversupplied."

"The Doha cut was not efficient in stabilizing the market."

He said a cut could be around 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day, although it was hard to predict.



Link

The mood turned particularly bearish this arvo with All Ords falling 1.4%, the biggest drop we've had in ages. There was slaughterama across the board with every sector, bar Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), closing down 1% or more. Telecom remained the biggest loser, -3.3% followed by IT -2.8% and Financials -2.1%. The index is now resting on minor support on the daily chart so a bounce not out of the question tomorrow but things in general are looking grim.

The big miners were slugged: BHP -1.7% and RIO -2.4%. Golds gave back some of the morning gains but held up relatively well. Newcrest came in +0.4%, Newmont +0.7% and Lihir -2.8%.

Oils sank: Woodside -1.7% and Santos -2.8%.

The bears sank their fangs into Asia: Nikkers -2%, India -1.6% and Singers -0.9%. China is one of the few bourses showing gains, +1.1%.

A touch of red in UK/Europe?







http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Singapore's 3rd-Quarter Growth Slower Than Expected

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy expanded less than expected in the third quarter and the government said growth may slow further as companies including Seagate Technology Inc. cut production and ship fewer electronic products.

Southeast Asia's fourth-largest economy grew at an annual 5.7 percent pace, after expanding a revised 3.9 percent in the previous quarter, the trade ministry said in a report today. That's lower than the government's Oct. 10 estimate of 6 percent and the 6.6 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

It could be that traders who were bearish on US are unwinding some of their bets.

Got this from TT.
vix dec in the money put @ 11 is going for 30 cents when the vix is at 10.1, according to my math, these
should be worth at least .90 cents. So what am i missing here. Is this an anomaly?? if the vix closes at 10 on dec opex these should be worth a dollar, right.
on the other hand vix calls @ the 10 strike are going for $2.5 and the puts are 10cents???
Unless there's something i don't know about vix options, it would seem on the surface that volatility is not about to decrease any further and conversely a rather sizeable move is in the making. Common wisdom would dictate that such a move would be to the downside, but when has common wisdom ever made any money in the mkt.
Therefore, i would have to conclude that vix is hinting at a major melt up in the mkt.
If someone can shed some light on this vix option pricing anomaly, i would greatly appreciate it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=%5EVIX&m=2007-01

The vix options are priced off the futures and not the spot. While spot vix is at 10.1, Dec futures (VBI) closed on Fri at 116.70. This corresponds to a vix near month futures price of 11.67. Options are priced accordingly.

Microsoft Upped To Outperform At Credit Suisse >MSFT

"After a 20% run, we have discovered the possibility of an additional 1.3% so decided to up the targets"

Astral, fwiw I have pulled off a trade on QLD and QID a couple times now. Not sure why it just traes pre-market sometimes. Maybe it has to do something with margin calls being settled or something to that nature.

I even got a wild fill once premarket that should not have happened. I got a sell on QID premarket when QQQQ started taking off about 12 cents or so. The trade went off as if it was unchanged. Very odd but I sure wasn't complaining.

FRX CEO on Crapvision. Interesting comments about being aggressive etc. and its great mine in Indonesia.
Probably weak today. He mentioned his focus being, "longer term"


Lowes is fixing to come up with the numbers.

Lowe's Reports Record Third Quarter Earnings
Lowe's 3Q EPS 46c >LOW
Lowe's Cos 3Q Net $716M Vs $646M, +10.8% >LOW

*DJ Lowe's Cos 3Q Sales $11.21B Vs $10.59B, +5.8% >LOW
DJ Lowe's Cos Sees 4Q Sales Down About 4% On 1 Less Week>LOW
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...uaebqLqWmde0nJK

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Not sure who else here trades PEIX but that was a wild move last week. I was loving it in the morning on friday. The company delayed earnings but said they were basically going to report great earnings etc. early last week. I was fooled into thinking it wouldn't retrace before Monday.
It got plowed off those highs and I sold losing those gains. It sucked....

They said "no later than Monday" so the earnings should be out soon. I would assume some of the news is built in so need something spectacular I guess or great forward guidance etc.
Could go either way and multiple times this week. I can't get any real read on it in a tight enough range to make it playable right here. Doesn't feel like a large breakout will happen. More like a gap and crap to the lows....an immediate selloff could probably be bought for the retrace play....

I read about FCX's weight in the HUI etc. I think 10%. PD is gapping up huge but FCX is down 4 bucks. I wonder if it has the power to roll over the hui?

Been watching PEIX. Apparently Cramer was bearish Friday. Could be wild at the open.

SPX 1398 or so was resistance. Is it support now?

Leonard the wonder monkey says "BUY!BUY!BUY!" on PEIX.

Who to believe. Cramer or the Monkey?

http://cramerwatch.org/leonard

Nice support a dollar down. If it dives I won't go for the trendline around 16.50 but a retest of the broken downtrend line around 16.80. 16.80 is the hopeful pivot area but momentum could push it to 16.50 area imo...Nothing bearish with this stock on an IT basis above 15 imo....

I basically want to see PEIX hold above the downtrend line which could be mean lower prices short term. Notice the 15 target area on the longer term chart.

umm PVX and energys gonna play out today. pretty large spread on PVX current 10.79 10.33x10.94. since that strong close on friday i thought we open up then run pretty decent.....

DJ Fed Accepts $3.75 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $3.75 Bln
Total submitted: $45.75 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $8.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.21%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.75 Bln
Total submitted: $30.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.25%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.23%

$1.5 bln net add.

1200/1700 Tsy Secy Paulson speaks on US capital
markets in New York
1400/1900 Dallas Fed Pres Fisher speaks on the
German economy in Berlin

LEI up 0.2%. What's the big deal?

worth a 30 cent goose in the Qs?

Looks like they are having second thoughts.

Based on the uptrend channel pattern of the past few years, I figured the next i/t top for IYR (REIT etf) would be around 83.50-84.50. I also thought that, if the IYR was working up towards an important top, it might actually bust thru the uptrend channel briefly in a final whoop-de-doo.

Well, the whoop-de-doo is here. The high so far today on IYR was 86.56, no doubt on some serious short-covering based on the EOP "go private" deal. IYR is heavily shorted.

EOP was taken out for a 7.7% premium. IYR zoomed up 6.6% at the high point today. EOP is 4% of the IYR.

EOP is one of the higher profile REITs with trophy props in major cities like NYC. EOP poobah Sam Zell is considered one of the smartest RE cookies. Interestingly, Zell is not part of the buyout. He's ringing the register here.

If Zell is getting out for a 7.7% premium, you have to wonder just how much more upside is left in the REITs, given that just about every name in the group is up 4%-7% this morning. Can't imagine the wily Zell left too much on the table.

Wouldn't suggest shorting the REITs here since today's news might keep a bid under the group for a bit and many of the names are going to get squeezed in here. But this is exactly the sort of news you see at inflection points. Guess we'll find out over the coming months whether Zell was able to get out at the top.

Pvx not moving either way.. maybe a good thing? how are the other energys moving. staying unbelievebly strong after oil getting nailed

Trading just at 1400 cash, there is about a + 20% premium delta for DEC SPX calls vs. puts (weeklys are a little less but still positive) ... this is the highest difference I have seen trading around a strike in a while ...

FWIW

edit - Paulson on US Capital Markets ... I guess he's continuing to expand his own job description (I thought it was just "US Capital") ...

(stares into camera) : "feeling lucky, PUNK ??? "

Also FWIW, there must've been a pretty large napalm drop on the G-Man Group in Vietnam last weekend ...

coming up on cnbs, is it time for you to get into reit's? ufb...........

Keep cutting, so we're now up to 2.5m potential barrels? In October they announced that a cut of 1-1.5m might be necessary and now another cut of 500-1m barrels.

One of the biggest bulls on realmonkey.com has been taunting the bears for months and talking about the "mother of all short squeezes". Thinks the market is going much higher and has been very bearish on commode stocks (for years, btw.) He also feels RE will be just fine. Says that "Dr Copper is flunking out."

Today, he is all over the EOP deal and saying that the 7% premium shows just how undervalued RE is. Funny, though, he doesn't mention the 30% premium for PD. Selective perception, I guess.

Does it mater, it should be all green tomorrow and Wed. Fri up 100 or unchanged.

Printed 10.87 high today. Friday was ex-div. I'm seeing some of the trust up today even with oil and oih down. Pockets of strength.

The morning low, rest-of-day ramps works ... until it doesn't

pavlov's bears.............

According to Kevin Depew over at Minyanville, LEI was up 0.2%. However, the contribution made by M2 (money supply) represented 43% of the number. M2 grew by 1.2% for only the second month in the last 23 years. The other month was Sept 2001.

Was there a major terror attack and somehow we didn't hear about it?

*DJ Fed Buys Securities Outright In Coupon Pass

This is the exact inverse of what happened late last year when prices were rocketing and they kept on increasing output. Well, now we more supply then what the market needed. It looks like there is a 6+ month delay on the announcement of the cuts until it gets filtered into the market.

Usually that's the case this week. Yep.

But as dmm has pointed out, the market hasn't always followed the past is prologue script this year.

gonna put the brooklyn bridge on ebay see if any bears bite..... especially in the first hour suck in....... ufb.............................

robin-

ever morning when the market sells off, I think of you.

You've nailed it!

CNBS is known for their timely reports. Recall their breathless "town hall meetings" on real estate back in the 1H of 2005 when they tried to whip the sheeple into a RE frenzy. I also remember their infamous series on "How to Short Stocks" back in late Sept 2002.

I'd rather take my cue from the sharpest knives in the drawer. And when you see two of the smartest players in comm RE---Trammell Crow and Zell---ring the register over the past few weeks, you have to think that the REITsters are building an important top here.

last week spx futures busted 1400 and ndx futures busted 1800.

but, rusty futures yet to bust through (and knock out the remaining stops) at 800.

Actually, the market has largely followed the "past ain't prologue" script this year.

I'm waiting for the MO spinoff of Kraft and the announcement that they have acquired rights to mine cheese on the moon. That oughta be good for a 20% bump.

DE JA VU!

1 Hour later.

That's how you outsmart the contrarians" Actually it's a game of odds and expected returns. One day the market is going to open down so low as to make up for all these daily bear suck-ins.