I'm still counting on it. Don't let me down.

NEM for Jan. 2007. Just think, if this happens where the other leaders will be.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1164913340.png

There are others that are leaders, but NEM cant be considered one of the leaders, imo.

3 years ago when I first became interested in metals, NEM was near 50. And still is today.
But back then, I bought SSRI for under 7 bucks, and its 30 now, etc, etc.

Buying NEM to play the metals bull is like buying IBM in the 90s to play tech stocks. Makes money, but not much. You could do so much better with a growing company, not one whose production is declining.

If that's the logic on Monty how do you explain Anders addiction? GSS....smile....

I didn't mean NEM was a leader.. LOL sorry

I meant those others that ARE leaders

HUI supply line break 11/30/06
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1164919092.png

On GSS, I am guilty as charged too.

GG is over 10% of the Gold miners index I believe

If breaks through the 32 area it's gunna be a big move

GDX
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1164919534.png

A mistake. Management screwed up and didnt deliver on time on their BIOX/increased production, and had to dilute too much to achieve it.

I spent the summer and fall of '04 buying it, believing the turnaround was near.



However, with NEM, you get a company that you KNOW isnt growing, and whose production is declining. With GSS, we believed that good things were coming (and they are), but it is taking a lot longer than expected to get the increased production on line.

Yeah, I misread it. Thanks for all the charts.

That HUI chart clearly shows the breakout above the downtrend line.

golden stoolies.. I'm glad everyone had a great day today. Don't want to sound arrogant by any means but the last three posts I have put up on the board seems to have been correct and yet nobody ever provides any feedback. I guess I was hoping that another poster here plays the actual gold/silver prices instead of the gold shares. I hope someone speaks up otherwise I feel like I am just talking to myself and no use in that!

Had a guy teach me that as a group... you have stocks in the group that are first movers, you have the next group, then you have the laggards that move last.

other folks call this sector rotation.

eg would be SSRI..... then IAG .... then last say DROOY

look at the charts...the picture of where each of them are illustrates my point.

PS...my teacher was very wise I miss him a lot.

So, when droppie (DROOY) finally moves like a rocket, it will be the time to start to get out.

Hi realist - Yes, you have nailed it! Congratulations! Not an easy task. And by no means are you arrogant – success should be acknowledged as it benefits all who participate.

Usually I don't have much time to post, or I would have commented on your posts before.
You've established a successful record, and I'm sure most posters here observed your comments and will continue to take note.

In addition, there are many posters who spend much time here sharing their knowledge helping us learn TA. Although not very often recognized, posters such as Bearvest, Charmin, Metamucil, dharma, and many others are certainly appreciated for their efforts!

Thank you all.

Most appreciated!

Scooby Doo?

I had a PnF chart of NEM showing a potential to $52, but I'm sure that has changed since. Seems like a month since the bottom I figured it.

My first post was meant to say that if NEM as a laggard can make it to $52 then think about the potential for others that are already above some resistance area.

You need steel toed shoes or the capacity to move them quickly, as some of the stocks get stepped on at different times.

PS. When it comes to being glad and having a great day, large core positions in stocks such as Arizona Star, Goldcorp, Gold Fields, Pacific Rim Mining along with many others, and recent aquisitions such as Southwestern Resources and Stormcat certainly put a big smile on my face today thank you very much!

Thanks GM.. In essence, I think that every stoolie here on this forum is truly unique and most have great track records in their called positions. I believe that we all represent a very small and special group of traders as the metals bull continues to storm ahead. I'm positive that most members will end up very well off after this generational event has concluded in the years to come. Everyone deserves big props and much respect!

Charmin I might have to squezze you....

Rin Tin Tin... woof woof

I am happy I was wrong about GG - thought it would be a lagger due to its dilutive purchase of Glamis.

What's going on with IAG - trapped in a trading range?

Do we go to say 370 then back to 345?

WOOF was one of my favorite stocks

RGLD breaks supply line
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1164944961.png

Nortel is going to consolidate. To this day I miss the purpose of consolidations. Nothing is going to change in the fundamentals of Nortel. A reverse split is unlikely to do anything.

XAU:

I'm expecting a correction here.

On the daily, it sure looks like 5 waves up. Stochastics are at an extreme.

On the weekly, price crossed the upper trendline and MACD rose above zero. It's hard to get more bullish than that.

Surprisingly, my experience is that when a trend reversal shows up on the weekly, that's often the exact time that the market reverses in a brief whipsaw correction.

As tempted as I was to take profits, MACD on the daily shows no bearish divergence, and the confirmed uptrend on the weekly MACD means I'm holding through the correction that I'm anticipating.

I'll add on any backtests of the upper trendline.

Still with GG, SSRI, AUY (YRI.TO), and XGD.TO.

realist, i pay attention to all posts on this board. and i have always watched your posts on ids and mm as well. good calls
bv, we may be in 1of3. the rsi on the daily is the highest yet. i am enjoying the ride, and i believe it is just starting. wave 1 went from 2001 to may 2005. and i think wave 3 started oct 4 2006. anyway, i am not trading just holding, adding on weakness. dharma

GSS:

I've posted about the accumulation in GSS previously.

If OBV and Acc/Dist are moving in tandem, all is well.

Once they diverge, ultimately----and over a long time frame---Acc/Dist will rule.

Both had bullish divergence into the October lows.

Since late October, the trend on OBV has flattened and Acc/Dist has been negative.

That's a "get out" signal.

Price pattern may be an ending diagonal (bearish rising wedge).

R:

This is a unique board.

We conduct ourselves with unusual reserve. We're like a bunch of Eaton or Oxford schoolboys. We offer our opinions with clarity, but our agreements, and especially our disagreements, are expressed in very subtle terms.

That is because we all trust and respect each other.

Please don't confuse that with any thought that new posters are are ignored or excluded.

As far as my thoughts on Gold go, I see Gold completing an impulse up, with the 5th wave being an ending diagonal. The last wave will often fall short or overthrow the upper trendline--it will often create a whipsaw for trend traders. The listlessness in MACD supports this analysis.

We welcome you here, and we'd all like to see you post as often as you wish.

As far as the absence of feedback goes, it just goes with the territory here. This is not a Yahoo board. Stick with us. And please express your views. We'll all be the richer for it.

Ditto, Dharma.

I totally agree with your analysis.

I'm looking to ride wave 3 up and 5 thereafter.

The absence of bearish divergence on MACD and RSI on the daily causes me to discount my analysis that we've possibly seen the full extent of wave 1 of 3 or wave i of 1 of 3. off the October 4th lows.

Maybe the absence of divergence is attributable to the fact that it's a wave within a 3rd wave.

But this is one "honking" bull market in the miners. If I may wax poetic:

Dips should be bought.
And rallies sold not.

I am with Bearvest on this one. This board resides in a different realm. While prices are tanking....most waiting to add to positions on the lows and shop for deals. Some guys only visit here during special events like when the highs or the lows are near or big moves either way are eminent.

Over on MtoM and Intraday, you will notice that some are discovering gold stocks and picking n' choosing while here at the 'Digger' we have been doing it for years. (So don't ask us)

I prefer a non-emotional board who understands gold, miners and PMs value in the long run. Plenty of charts posted here with the correct lines with fundies opinions throw'in, just reading the posts makes for better trading.

Today was only one day. Most of my holdings still need to repair since I didn't sell at the highs months ago but my repositioning is making for a quicker recovery in my portfolios.

NEM will rise with the rest of the miners when the dumb money shows up late to the party.

Ya just never know which way it will trend tomorrow but in the long run I am not worried.

It was a nice movement today, get over it.

bv, i guess what i am trying to say is where you have a 3(above)i have that as a 1 and 4 as 2(above). w/this new high in oscillators, it has caused me to rethink my count to what i state here. as you well know its the problem w/counting in real time. also as you state we are overbought ,but as of yet no divergences. if the length of of wave 1 is any indication(2001-2005). we have years of this bull to go and the greatest appreciation lies ahead. most probably the best strategy is to buy on weakness and hold(gold majestic is an inspiration there), although golds yearly smackdowns are brutal! dharma

Its possible that gold is right smack in the middle of a new impulse rise. The last impulse rise that begun on 10/23 made a $50 move from bottom to top. If the current rise emulates any of the the previous buying patterns, then the cash price should get to $665 before any notable corrective action begins. In the very short term, the channel support is current set at $641-643 area so I would not be at all surprised to see a pullback to this level. If anything, these minor pullbacks serve up lower risk entry points while using a session close under 641 as the stop-out point. If $665 can be broken successfully and closed over for two full sessions, then I don't see any major resistance until the $697 area...

Dollar smashed again, but this time gold isnt up.
I guess yesterday was too good.

on this pullback i am thinking of adding to mgn. anyone have a read on this stock! dharma

just for kicks, current P&F targets for the following :

GOLD - 750.00 - Ascending Triple Top Breakout (11/22)
SILVER - 21.50 - Double Top Breakout (11/24)
HUI - 472.0 - Double Top Breakout (11/27)
XAU - 192.0 - Double Top Breakout (11/29)
GOX - 206.0 - Double Top Breakout (11/24)

I don't pay much attention to P&Fs except when technical breakouts occur...

Buy and Hold:

Easy to say. Difficult to do.

Sold my XGD.TO's at 85.45 today.

Acquired at 70.20.

Already I'm experiencing seller's remorse.

EGO Jumps resistance

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165016968.png

some juniors appear to be lagging here like..

GBN
AAU

NAK hits reisistance at 8.60
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165112808.png

KRY at 3.80
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165017350.png

and it may appear that recent breakouts from supply lines may continue
RGLD
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165017232.png

and watch GFI
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165017288.png

but keep an eye on GG. I Still think since it's 10% of the gold miners index it's gunna have a big push through some resistance in the 32 area and when it does we're home free
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165112872.png

Haven't looked at PMU in awhile. Even junk dogs come alive.. lol
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165017678.png

Some of the better energy stocks are still pushing up. Let's see if we can enjoy the same ride

Hi dharma - Having the time now, I'm happy to discuss that one as it remains one of my recommendations and core holdings.

Yes, I like this company very much. Companies with proven "long life" reserves/resources in “safe” mining areas of the world will increasingly sport premiums. (Yes, there was the Canyon Resources Seven-Up Pete disaster when Montana passed the anti-mining initiative I-137 in 1998!) This is really important to understand: Montanore WILL NOT BE an open pit mine NOR USE CYANIDE, the two major points of that initiative. And Montanore is not in Bolivia, Ecuador, nor Venezuela, etc.

I recommended it back in ’05 but have since, unfortunately, given back most of the gains. I hold it in my long-term core portfolio. I had wanted to add in early October but had too much on my plate at that time. Since then I’ve been hoping for weakness and now getting ready to pull the trigger once again.

I would advise buying MGN if you’re comfortable holding for 3 to 5 years. If you were in for a quick trade, then you would probably want to discard any information that I provide and focus on short-term TA.

Of course, you’d be investing in silver, copper, zinc and oil. I like the story of yet another company that benefited from the washout in PMs, acquiring from Noranda in 2002, 100% ownership of the 1,700 acre, 260 million oz silver / 2 billion lbs copper Montanore deposit in Montana. (The 81,506,000 tons of mineralized material was calculated with cut off grades based on a silver price of $6.24 /oz and a copper price of $1.26 /lb. With an increasing silver price at $14 and copper at $3.20 you can be sure the resource is growing even without the drills turning.)

The project has already undergone extensive engineering, and is designed with an initial production capacity of approximately 12,500 tons per day estimated to yield 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper, with the added potential to increase production.

Depressed Libby Montana welcomes the jobs that building and operating a mine would bring. MGN is about 2 years away from completing their feasibility study and currently preparing for an additional 48,000 feet of drilling to further define the deposit.

http://www.minesmanagement.com/overview.aspx

Recent news release:
Mines Management Announces Final Approval to Move Forward with Underground Evaluation Program at the Montanore Project

http://www.minesmanagement.com/releases/mm..._activities.htm

I’m posting a monthly chart of MGN to point out the continued positive Chaikin Money Flow, long term upward trend in On Balance Volume, Full Stochastics Oscillator turning up, and recent low volume correction. MGN certainly has some catching up to do with the silver price! In my long-term view, all looking pretty good over the next week or two for a place to accumulate if you missed the "early October low" boat.

goobsout

I bought Credo Petroleum over the past 3 days. I took a relatively small position as there's not much trading volume. Not a table-pounder, but I expect it to double within the next year or two.

RSI bearish divergence:

Bearish divergence may be forming in several of the HUI components:

RSI and bearish divergence:

Some other stocks (and it's the majority) simply show waning RSI just below the overbought level:

Excellent article, linked below, on the fundies that drive the price of a miner's stock.

I've practiced law for 33 years. Daily, I must identify all of the factors that will influence the judge's decision and assign a proper weight to each. Only after this analysis can I advise a client to persist in the litigation or settle.

The thesis of the article is that going forward, the stocks to buy are those in which the leverage of the producer's selling price will outweigh the producer's cost of production. If leverage is positive the stock will rise exponentially. If negative, it may eventually cease to exist.

He says that the following factors are relevant:

1. The current and future cost of production.
2. The energy intensive nature of the producer.
3. The remoteness of the proposed or existing mine.
4. The richness of the ore body.
5. The additional revenues or cost reductions achievable from by-products.
6. The general absence of exploration from 1982 to 2000, and the "wealth in the ground" of any particular producer.
7. The geo-political risk of the particular producer.

Getting back to my law practice, I study the factors of each case and try to give my client an informed opinion, but still I lose the odd case.

I simply don't have the time, the knowledge, or the ability to access the resources to study, analyse, and weigh the 7 factors listed above in relation to the miners.

Obviously, I'm hoping that the market, in its collective wisdom, discounts all of these factors in arriving at price and its direction. That's why I trade technically.

I wish I could draw a chart for the cases that I have-- so I could have an objective measure. Every time I give my client counsel, I'm placing a significant part of my anatomy on the chopping block---and in such a case one really hates to lose.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-27001.htm

bv, oscillators are great, they do tend to get one out too early.
gm, thanks for the input mgn, i have a small position and about to add to it in a more significant way.
my view is december will be a positive month, although the dollar is Dover Sole and diverging dharma

History in the making

December 1, 2006 meets the high when SLV opened back on 4/28. The selloff to a low came on the day when the SPX bottomed - June 13. It also had a retest on Oct. 4 along with commodities in general.

So, we can say that SLV changed course on June 13 and retested the third time on Oct. 4 with a little shakeout on 10/24.

I measured a 22 count PnF cause giving two potentials. The conservative count from 106 targeted 128 while the count using the backup to 113 on 10/24 gives a potential of 135. There is the potential that another 36 count lies horizontally on the same row and the significance of the selloff into the June low and multiple retests can use this cause to propel it much higher. If that becomes a reality, then using the full potential in June through October can send SLV to 170.

SLV bar chart
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165111249.png

GOLD

BIG consolidation while pushing up into the 23.50 area

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165112735.png

These dates are noted on my charts for lows

10/4
10/24
11/17

GOLD is performing similiar to HUI

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1165113421.png

notice that the Oct 4 th low in the metals coincides with a low in the oils as well......hmmmm....smile...

Yes, Oct. 4 is significant for a lot of commodities

I see everyone was awake since last night.

China sprouting

"The Treasury Secretary is taking steps to prepare for a dollar crisis. According to the Wall Street Journal, Paulson 'has reinvigorated the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which had languished. Mr. Paulson is chairman of the Working Group, which coordinates government policy on financial markets and includes the heads of the Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Mr. Paulson has insisted that they meet about every six weeks. Before his arrival, the group met every few months and sometimes as infrequently as once a quarter.

In two weeks the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are going to travel to China to discuss the US trade deficit with China and probably try to talk the Chinese government into lowering the value of the yuan. "

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/drupal/node/1268