http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

A brief attempt was made to build on yesterday's record high but no cigar. All Ords currently -0.3% and back in the recent trading range. Most sectors are in the red with Financials leading the way, -0.9% and Property Trusts a close second, -0.8% and there's only a few greens with Energy leading at a fairly muted +0.4%.

I suspect news of the US RE pop is finally beginning to filter through to the Antipodes although I was talking to a RE agent here last week and she was totally unaware of it (hard to believe!). The Financials sector daily chart is sagging badly with bearish divergences all over it. Property Trusts is still way up there but volatility has increased of late so something may be about to give.

The miners are cautious today: BHP -0.4% and RIO +0.4%. In the golds, Newcrest doing a low volume pullback, -0.5%, Lihir +2.6% and Newmont +1.2%.

Oils are up slightly.

Asia barely moving.

South Korea's Economic Growth Revised Higher to 1.1%

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's economy expanded a revised 1.1 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, faster than forecast, as companies increased investment and construction gained.

Gross domestic product was revised up from an initial estimate of 0.9 percent, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul today. The economy has advanced for 14 straight quarters, the longest continuous expansion in a decade, driven by export growth.

German November Joblessness Fell as Confidence Grew

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment fell more than expected in November to the lowest in four years as increased optimism in the economy prompted companies to hire and the warmest fall on record buoyed the construction industry.

Falling unemployment and growing confidence among executives and consumers suggest Chancellor Angela Merkel was right to gamble that next year's value-added tax increase won't derail the country's economic expansion. The ``continuation of economic recovery'' noted by Economy Minister Michael Glos Nov. 17 strengthens the European Central Bank's hand in raising interest rates.

--------------

German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Declined in October

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- German retail sales unexpectedly fell in October as concern that economic growth may slow next year prompted consumers to keep a grip on spending.

Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, declined 0.2 percent from September, when they dropped the most in more than two years, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a 1.5 percent gain, the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Japan's Inflation Unexpectedly Slows

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese inflation unexpectedly slowed in October as oil prices dropped, giving the central bank room to delay an increase in interest rates to support a recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo, slower than the 0.2 percent median forecast of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The gain also slumped from a 0.2 percent increase in September.

A slowdown in core prices won't impede the bank's attempt to raise interest rates early next year, said economist Eishi Yokoyama.

--------------

Japan's Unemployment Rate Falls Near Eight-Year Low

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's unemployment rate fell to near an eight-year low and household spending declined less than expected, supporting the central bank's view that consumption may accelerate and bolster Asia's largest economy.

The jobless rate declined to 4.1 percent in October from 4.2 percent a month earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo.

Household spending fell at the slowest pace since July, a separate report showed today, suggesting a tighter job market may be forcing some employers to raise wages. The government last week cited concern about weakness in private consumption when it downgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in almost two years.

U.K. Bankruptcies Soar as Loans, Card Debt Top $6,800 a Person

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Roland Snooks couldn't resist a good deal on a loan, and for 11 years, banks including Egg Plc and Abbey National Plc were happy to feed his habit.

When Snooks turned 18, National Westminster Bank Plc gave him a credit card and a 7,000-pound ($13,363) loan for his first car. Now Snooks, 29, owes 50,000 pounds -- three times his train driver's salary -- and is one of a record number of Britons declaring insolvency this year.

British banks have made 215 billion pounds of unsecured consumer loans, denting earnings at lenders such as Barclays Plc and HBOS Plc as default rates rise. The number of U.K. personal bankruptcies will exceed 100,000 for the first time this year, according to an estimate from accounting firm Baker Tilly.

The government's Insolvency Service says defaults jumped 65 percent to 77,441 in the first nine months of this year. More than half the filings were Individual Voluntary Arrangements, or IVAs, which let borrowers consolidate debt and typically spread payments over five years.

U.K. consumer debt averaged 3,500 pounds per person in 2005, according to a Nov. 13 report by the New York-based accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. That's more than the combined number for France, Germany and Italy, though lower than the U.S., where debts averaged 4,000 pounds a person.

Ooh, nice slide in the arvo. The chart indicators are gonna start growling about that. All Ords finished -0.8% and that was enough to catapault every sector into the red. Healthcare ended up down the most, -1.5% followed by Financials, IT and Property Trusts, all -1.3%. Utilities was down the least, -0.1% with Energy next, -0.2%.

Not much change on the miners: BHP -1.1%, RIO +0.4% and the golds barely moved from the morning post.

Oils moved down: Woodside -0.2% and Santos -1.4%.

Asia managing to keep its head above water for the most part.

Over to UK/Europe:







http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

TTM, great stuff!
http://www.timingthemarket.com/id14.html
Those fibs are amazing.
On a related issue.
I think VNO would be a good example. I don't calculate fibs etc. but I bet there is one near 140. That is my target to short on an IT basis. I am afraid that after that I may just target 250. The solid natural number that seems important to me for this stock.

Basically this stock is a great example of a wild ride that just blasts off everytime it looks like it will roll over. I'm big on rentals etc. and think a bad housing market will be great for me.
It has always been amazing to me just how well fibs etc. work for at least some resistance or support.

Here is a real example from Wednesday.I of course am in one of the lowest hit areas in the USA and some of the greatest growth potential due to oil and casinos taking over and a large lack of housing.
I am so lucky to have avoided any housing crash regardless...

*Just got the rent from the house across the street. Kachingo!! Thanks huricane Rita for the permanent income and dirt cheap expenses. Beats the hell out of the market % wise. Unless 850 a month income from a 50k house paid for is bad....
I bid on 5 houses wednesday at the sherriffs sales. Tons just opened up. It was flooded big time and EVERYTHING was overbid by people willing to pay cash up front right now.
We were going to bid 125 for a new 2 story brick home (2500 sqft). We figured it might go for 150 or so and had no chance but whatever, it is fun to bid anyways. The first bid was 175k. It went for 200k with an est. immediate flip for 225k if possible.
That is basically garbage to me. Everything was like this. It was amazing. Every wednesday from here on out is loaded with homes coming up. I haven't seen this many people at an auction in 3 years.
We are there EVERY wednesday. Even if you aren't bidding, every now and then something gets overlooked. They can be so cheap that you just bid and don't even know what it looks like.....literally. You have the dirt cheap appraised value already so you can at a minimum sell it for 15% above that...as long as it is within a year and you are not in Californias or its cousins states.
Didn't want to get on a rant but wanted to explain the "why" part as to why Reits are skying.....

Plumbers income is now outpacing lawyers and businessmen.....or at least that is what I have heard. It makes since as 4 billion people become lawyers because they have heard all the get rich stories. Same with Real Estate pros.
Fix ups are where the cash is for employment opportunites....not making/losing a flipper a fortune. None of these people you read about are doing all the work themselves. They are paying top dollar to get it done by someone like me.
My equipment is where the other half is.
[attachmentid=73074]
The Short Housing Gang.[B]
Pick out the one who is NOT bearish. Good luck.
[attachmentid=73075]
Short party 12-01-2006
[attachmentid=73076]
Somewhere in the distance small sounds can be heard that sound like, "Buy the retrace"

Taking offense, the crowd rebels against the "Lone Rebel" by buying puts in way OTM leap puts. Every time the crowd piles on to one side it is a bad idea to invest in that notion. That is the case here. imo
"Buy when there be blood in dem streets" Tzu *right so far at least with Gates and Buffett on my side. I am happy with that and don't care about Buffetts underperformance which has just ended.
People diss Buffett and his performance but they are missing one thing. He is getting paid off for all his patience as we speak. A long term breakout would crank the % gain big for next year and offset some of the losses in the past.
He has been hurt by compounding but that is a science in itself. Just see what Albert Einstein's views are on that. Compounding is only "perfect" for ltbh when it is a fixed investment. Otherwise the calculations are all over the place. Just imagine tagging March03, Aug04,Oct05 and June06 vs. anything else....
[attachmentid=73077]

Getting bored with the 4 million daily housing crash articles, the crowd starts eyeing the Naz instead for the next crash.
[attachmentid=73078]
Then they buy the "breakout" in oil
[attachmentid=73079]
[attachmentid=73080]

One more thing. I am gaming oil long here via some momos so I am contradicting myself!
I get the feeling this upcoming retrace is going to ignite a large rally. I'd be careful with those shorts.
I'll be watching how fast the put/call spikes to 2 here pretty soon.

TTM, why no latest fibs since 03? It was cool then but....

HAY TZU DO YOU EVER SLEEP????

6 hours tops in 2 segments usually.

Buy the dip on DELL imo. DYODD and all that jazz....

Heh, heh. The RUT. What a fraud.

Did you know that the RUT is FULLY RECONSTITUTED every 12 months? No wonder it has an upside bias. Every year they drop the dogs and replace them with promising newcomers.

The purpose of the RUT is to provide a benchmark for fund managers to compare their performance with on a quarterly basis.

In terms of a true historical reflection of what the market is doing over the long haul, all market averages are fantasy. On the RUT, I'd go one step further and call it a fraud. But I guess you can buy the etf's and play it for the survivors' bias over the long haul.

What a joke.

Russ did an excellent synopsis of yesterday's podcast, illustrated too!

Here: http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=125

You can listen to the podcast here while you're reading:

http://podcast.streetiq.com/streetiq?Chann...age=MediaViewer

Thanks to all for the great discussions!

Lurkers, you can support the Stool, and get real time insights into the forces of liquidity and cycles that drive the markets by subscribing to the WSE Pro.
Try it risk free for 30 days! http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?page_id=19

According to WSJ capt kirk dumped his entire GM position.

It is known that he dumped 28m shares in the last two weeks. What the capt didn't make public is he has been dumping for the last two months.

Doc, IMO. Home Depot sucks. Using it for a barometer is an extremely bad move.
Why? Service sucks, everything is higher priced than Lowes, they are always out of everything etc. etc.
Use Lowes as a barometer imo. Nobody goes to Home Depot here. They all go to Lowes including myself a few times per week.
I will only go to Home Depot when they do the 1 year 0 interest deals. This is probably twice a year. That way I don't pay interest. I can make money off interest from the cash I would have spent and I can do ALL the fix up part "no money down". Even then I check prices first since they can be way different for bulk projects....especially around here.

Looks like a needle bottom on large volume to me.....


Here are all the analcyst changings today. Including Lowes upgrade.
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...0aebqLqWmdiXnJG

Dumping the losers from a portfolio is the right thing to do every once in a while isn't it?

The indexes are a fraud in the sense you are talking about.

But that doesn't mean you can't make money on them.

The ETF's alllow the average investor to play the fraudex game, too. Long or short.

Better to have them than not have them, IMO.

Forgot one thing and then I will shut up. Please excuse my lack of knowledge vs. the Harvard pros I am up against in the news.

This is what I think on how to catch a bottom in housing.
Watch the auctions keep skyrocketing.
Eventually home prices set by brokers making a killing etc. but not selling will have to be LOWERED to get close to current auction values. When that WAY OUT OF WHACK divergence ends you will have your bottom in housing...
Ya, I know......golf claps appreciated. Have a great day everyone. Watch out for Tony Dorsett. He is tired today after a long week so you might actually catch a slip!

Yes, my point is that the RUT is not an accurate historical record of market performance. Many poodits suggest that small caps have outperformed. Others, based on the Dow say that the market is at all time highs. Both statements are just grossly misleading. The Dow is a conservatively managed portfolio whose components change. The RUT is an aggressively managed portfolio with high turnover. A managed portfolio of small caps has outperformed. It should, it's actively managed using a complex algorithm that weeds out the weak, and those that get too big, and seeds it with the young and the strong in their primary growth years.

Small caps as a whole? No clue. The majority disappear after a few years. No one tracks the effect of all the stocks that go to zero and stay there.

And yes, anyone certainly can play the etf game. I play the QIDs and QLDs. Lots of fun. It beats trying to play the individual stocks because the smoothing effect of averaged multiple inputs makes them less subject to pigman shanks and cranks out of the blue.

What will be the eventual effect of everyone playing the etfs and few buying and selling the individual components any more?

Or just wait until prices start rising again

The point is to try to catch a bottom and not just a retrace or after 25% gains etc.

great news for the top % maSSters

middle-claSS homedebtor wageslaves hurtin' bad

grind their faces into the dirt, keep 'em down

jack their taxes and interest rates

chop their pensions

send their jobs overseas

hire only immigrants

"The poor are in really bad shape," he said. "The core Wal-Mart shopper is running out of gas."

"There's been a real divergence in spending among the upper-income households and the lower-income households."

Ongoing weakness in the manufacturing industry, which has been losing jobs at a fast clip over the last decade as production of autos, durable goods and apparel have mostly moved overseas.

Now top that with the drops in the housing market, both in prices and new-home construction.

DJ Fed Accepts $6.75 Bln In 3-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 3-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6.75 Bln
Total submitted: $49.525 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $472 Mln
Total submitted: $8.475 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.34%
Weighted Average: 5.34%
High-rate submitted: 5.34%
Low-rate submitted: 5.28%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $5.806 Bln
Total submitted: $30.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.31%
Weighted Average: 5.31%
High-rate submitted: 5.31%
Low-rate submitted: 5.25%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $472 Mln
Total submitted: $10.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.35%
Weighted Average: 5.35%
High-rate submitted: 5.35%
Low-rate submitted: 5.27%

looks like a rate hike might be in the cards in December...nice call on the podcast.....look at the stop out rates

c'mon TIE needs to break 32 hovering right around, sure wish i could just sold at open 32.40 ish

bear suck in or is it different this time?

Yes, don't have to get in right at the bottom to make good profits though, same as trading. If one has the interest in RE then it's easy enough to spot when things are on the move.

goldilocks my ass..............................

Except that this time, house prices may uptick several times before the ultimate bottom is reached. They are still propping this market and sucking in straggler bagholders all the time. When everyone hates real estate, most builders have gone bk, and the market is moribund, that's the time to buy. Those are the conditions I saw in May of 1991 when I bought my last house. Mirror image of June 2005 when I sold.

Was that a bull trap I just witnessed?

Yesterday was year end for most of the big prop desks

Sometimes its just that easy

Yep and the whole thing will probably take several years to unwind so no need to sweat on it just yet.

national ism 49.5

prices paid up to 53

Long QLD

*DJ Rate Futures Fully Priced For 5% Funds Rate In 1Q 2007

Crap, out! Had to try for that needle u-turn suck in.

JUST SHORTED SOME VNO at 126.10..

Here come oil & gold
Fed has never raised rates with ISM below 50, ergo good bye uncle buck

I wouldn't be shocked to see a contraction in GDP for this quarter.

Good luck! I'm short RIMM via puts. Please bring spike removal kit next week just in case.

Dr Bob, the scenario whereby interest rates are kept artificially low to encourage inflation into 2010-2012 to cushion the Baby Boom pension problems seems better and better. Gold $3000 here we come.

I am sorry but would someone please explain to me why the bear case is dead again. After this several month correction though stocks will go up if only because of inflation pressures.
I am becoming addicted to Firefox because of the spell check. I can pretend to be intelligent again. WHEW!!!!

yeah baby!

Activist Kerkorian Moves
To Unload Entire GM Stake
Investor's Exit Removes
A Threat to CEO Wagoner,
But Big Challenges Remain
By JOHN D. STOLL and MONICA LANGLEY
December 1, 2006; Page A1


"Mr. Kerkorian's GM sales come at a point when the 89-year-old investor is ahead on his investment in the auto maker by less than $100 million, when dividends and gains from his recent stock sale are factored in. The gain represents a modest return on his $1.6 billion investment in the company, falling well short of the multibillion-dollar profits he has reaped in the auto industry in the past."
---------------------

Bulls had better pray that on a closing basis 1378 is not taken out basis the SnP

LEH looking like crap.

That only works if the dollar does not implode.

Gold outlook is bullish, other commodities less so

pension problems very much in the air

GS takes out Monday's low