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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
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aussiebear
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http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u


aussiebear
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Well that was a quiet one in IDS yesterday! Nice pics Doc, a bit different from those green fields you posted a while back.

A sleepy day on the market although so far it's up. All Ords +0.3% with nothing spectacular happening in the sectors. Property Trusts is leading, +0.7% followed by Healthcare +0.6%. IT is the only red, -0.3%.

Miners looking a bit lethargic but mostly up: BHP -0.2%, RIO +0.3% and the golds are up around 1%.

Oils still bipolar even after all this time: Woodside -0.2% and Santos +0.2%.



aussiebear
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Oo-er, an intraday consolidation and up we went to yet another record high. All Ords +0.7% and all sectors green although volume was right off. Property Trusts continued to step out, +1.6% followed by Healthcare +1.2%. IT closed up the least, +0.3%.

Nothing much happened in the big miners: BHP flat and RIO +0.3%. The golds didn't look too bad, all up with Newmont out in front, +2.8%.

Oils marked time: Woodside +0.4% and Santos +0.2%.

Some largish rises over in Asia: China +1.6%, Honkers +1.5% and India +1.2%.

Over to UK/Europe:

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http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u


aussiebear
Quite an interesting article with a global perspective. This bit caught my eye:

"By every measure, inflation in the US has clearly accelerated since 2004. In 2005, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator exceeded 2% for the first time since 1995. The core PCE has continued to accelerate in 2006, and will likely top 2.5% by the end of the year. This is significant because the Fed’s stated aim is to keep core PCE between 1.5% and 2%. The steady acceleration of core PCE shows that inflation from rising energy prices has penetrated the broader US economy.

Despite the obvious acceleration of inflation, the Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy into neutral in late summer. The Fed has justified more accommodative monetary policy in the face of rising inflation by suggesting that slowing US economic growth will eventually mitigate inflation. This is a huge gamble because US inflation is being pushed higher by supply-driven energy price shocks rather than demand. In 2007, continued energy supply shocks are likely to feed a grain supply shock, stoking a sharp increase in food price inflation and further acceleration of core PCE. "


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html




FeedFool
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Dec 27 2006, 07:00 AM)
Quite an interesting article with a global perspective.  This bit caught my eye:

"By every measure, inflation in the US has clearly accelerated since 2004. In 2005, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator exceeded 2% for the first time since 1995. The core PCE has continued to accelerate in 2006, and will likely top 2.5% by the end of the year. This is significant because the Fed’s stated aim is to keep core PCE between 1.5% and 2%. The steady acceleration of core PCE shows that inflation from rising energy prices has penetrated the broader US economy.

Despite the obvious acceleration of inflation, the Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy into neutral in late summer. The Fed has justified more accommodative monetary policy in the face of rising inflation by suggesting that slowing US economic growth will eventually mitigate inflation. This is a huge gamble because US inflation is being pushed higher by supply-driven energy price shocks rather than demand. In 2007, continued energy supply shocks are likely to feed a grain supply shock, stoking a sharp increase in food price inflation and further acceleration of core PCE. "


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html
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There will be buying opportunity this year....Joke isn't a bubble if one looks at emerging markets..... If the sell off in JOKE is small in 2007 then LOB....

Anyone have a chart of emerging market charts during the inflationary periods during the seventies???? TIA

In few years Dollar will be flashing a long term buy signal



aussiebear
Stores Seek Shoppers, Slash Prices Again

NEW YORK (AP) -- Retailers regrouped Tuesday, hoping that after-Christmas shopping would help them make up for a holiday season that fell short of expectations, while their customers were back in the stores looking for deeper and deeper discounts. With mounds of unsold winter clothes to move out, retailers were further slashing already heavily marked-down goods -- a typical response to a less-than-satisfactory season.


aussiebear
Asian Internet, Phone Services Hit by Taiwan Quakes

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Internet and telephone services across Asia were disrupted, hampering financial transactions, after earthquakes near Taiwan damaged undersea cables.

``The repairs could take two to three weeks,'' said Leng Tai-feng, president of Chunghwa Telecom Co.'s international business. The Taipei-based company, Taiwan's largest phone operator, said two of its undersea cables were cut.

A series of earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.1 tremor, struck Taiwan last night and today, killing at least two people and cutting power supplies. HSBC Holdings Plc said its online banking services were down, while Chunghwa said almost no calls could be made to Southeast Asia, causing disruption to companies including First State Investments in Singapore.

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Japan's Retail Sales Advance Less-Than-Expected 0.1%

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's retail sales rose less than expected in November, adding to concern consumers aren't spending enough to spur growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Retailers' revenue rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in November from a month earlier, the trade ministry said today, less than the 0.6 percent median estimate of six economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. From a year earlier, sales unexpectedly slipped 0.1 percent, ending three months of gains.


alceringa
UAE Central Bank is going to sell Dollars and buy Euros.

Euro's to be 10% of reserves vs. current 2%.

Preannouncing that they are going to buy the dips.

Link
alceringa
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Dec 27 2006, 10:58 PM)
Asian Internet, Phone Services Hit by Taiwan Quakes

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Internet and telephone services across Asia were disrupted, hampering financial transactions, after earthquakes near Taiwan damaged undersea cables.

``The repairs could take two to three weeks,'' said Leng Tai-feng, president of Chunghwa Telecom Co.'s international business. The Taipei-based company, Taiwan's largest phone operator, said two of its undersea cables were cut.

A series of earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.1 tremor, struck Taiwan last night and today, killing at least two people and cutting power supplies. HSBC Holdings Plc said its online banking services were down, while Chunghwa said almost no calls could be made to Southeast Asia, causing disruption to companies including First State Investments in Singapore.

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That trembler in Taiwan had some bass akward impacts.

CN (China Netcom) was up 31% in Hong Kong last night.

Go figure.

Up around 20% pre-market USA.
robin hoodlum
crapple! where's shorty?
robin hoodlum
how do you like dem apples..........
robin hoodlum
can apple shake bully CONfidence? nope party on!
DrStool
mmmmmmmmmmmmm


scrapple......

linrom
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Dec 27 2006, 02:00 AM)
Quite an interesting article with a global perspective.  This bit caught my eye:

"By every measure, inflation in the US has clearly accelerated since 2004. In 2005, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator exceeded 2% for the first time since 1995. The core PCE has continued to accelerate in 2006, and will likely top 2.5% by the end of the year. This is significant because the Fed’s stated aim is to keep core PCE between 1.5% and 2%. The steady acceleration of core PCE shows that inflation from rising energy prices has penetrated the broader US economy.

Despite the obvious acceleration of inflation, the Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy into neutral in late summer. The Fed has justified more accommodative monetary policy in the face of rising inflation by suggesting that slowing US economic growth will eventually mitigate inflation. This is a huge gamble because US inflation is being pushed higher by supply-driven energy price shocks rather than demand. In 2007, continued energy supply shocks are likely to feed a grain supply shock, stoking a sharp increase in food price inflation and further acceleration of core PCE. "


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html
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QUOTE
Economic growth in Asia, Europe and Latin America will also weaken in 2007. Slowing global economic growth will be very bad news for equity markets around the world. Dollar depreciation and rising international energy and grain prices will be good news for precious metals.


At least this article is not written by Henry Liu biggrin.gif , but, the whole premise above could be wrong. There is little evidence, that growth is slowing in the above mentioned economies other than US. Alas, rising energy and grain prices will be good for precious metals? How so, when the reason for increase is speculation and not demand like the article says(yesterday was a good example why speculators jawboning, in this case Iran,) can only go so far.
Charmin
If your waiting for a reaction based on the low VIX reading, just look back to 1994. It was a delayed reaction then. If history repeats like a pimple, it will erupt.

http://www.amateur-investors.com/Weekend_M...s_Dec_23_06.htm
Tzu
QUOTE(robin hoodlum @ Dec 27 2006, 08:28 AM)
how do you like dem apples..........
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Buy right now this second. imo.

I just did. Mark me down at 78.

Pre-market bottom formation.

Out if it doesn't bottom off the bell.

Here is why. Low risk area for a bounce imo. Call the trend lines approx 75-77. Needs to stay above that. I don't spend the time with exact specifics in fast moving stocks with volume.
Just a hunch and it is my birthday.
I bought myself 100 shares of F ltbh for my birthday. I am up 5.5% so far. That is almost 40 dollars. How do you like dem apples? tongue.gif

I guessed on the effect of this pre-market action on the indicators on the chart. I figure they should be close to the trend lines off the bell, whatever that print is.
linrom
[quote=FeedFool,Dec 27 2006, 03:34 AM]
[quote=aussiebear,Dec 27 2006, 07:00 AM]Quite an interesting article with a global perspective. This bit caught my eye:

There will be buying opportunity this year....Joke isn't a bubble if one looks at emerging markets..... If the sell off in JOKE is small in 2007 then LOB....

Anyone have a chart of emerging market charts during the inflationary periods during the seventies???? TIA

In few years Dollar will be flashing a long term buy signal
*

[/quote]

Feed, are you saying that US markets need a substantial correction to move up in 2007, and a small one will only lead to a substantial correction? However-- regardless-- US markets are poised for significant gains like that of other emerging markets!

Also, you state that just as baby boomers are about to begin to retire in large numbers, dollar would have bottomed by then. Is this correct?
DrStool
Looks like a few more of you are back today, but many still away. Hope you are enjoying the holidays, as I am. It's cold here today, finally, with blue skies, and the fields covered in snow.
DrStool
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
zman
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 27 2006, 09:54 AM)
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
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that's down right cold Lee. Had to go warm my coffee on that one smile.gif hope your enjoying your time...happy new year
dogsie
You know its cold when the difference between F and C drops to almost nothing.
Dharmaeye
QUOTE(dogsie @ Dec 27 2006, 06:59 AM)
You know its cold when the difference between F and C drops to almost nothing.
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-40 is the same in C and F
Don't live in those climates anymore smile.gif
robin hoodlum
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 27 2006, 10:54 AM)
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
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very rarely is "going to zero" an unwelcomed event in Doc's world........... tongue.gif
PyurAureo
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 27 2006, 10:54 AM)
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
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Doc,
I guess I've lost track. Where are you now?
Sudaca
sad.gif R.I.P., King of Soul
DrStool
QUOTE(PyurAureo @ Dec 27 2006, 10:04 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 27 2006, 10:54 AM)
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
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Doc,
I guess I've lost track. Where are you now?
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At home in Shawinigan Sud Quebec for the holidays. Back to FL Jan 7.
dogsie
A good day for bears, for polar bears anyway,

The Bush administration, under legal pressure from three environmental groups, will propose listing polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, The Washington Post reported.

Polar bears may be listed as threatened
Sudaca
This is what I'm seeing:

Mild internal deterioration, mainly in Nasdaq, with BPs and Summations in initial stages of rolling over. Classic short term Dover Sole bounce that I'm using to lighten up longs, and waiting to see if things get serious or not. Breadth is good today, and has yet to see a breakdown of consequence.

Bottom line, I think we're seeing the initial stages of a correction, but it's the part where price will go up a bit more and diverge from indicators. It could last a few more weeks, but maybe not. I'll probably wait until the fresh-new-money-from-the-sidelines gets put to work the first days of January before getting more aggresive.
zman
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 27 2006, 10:14 AM)
This is what I'm seeing:

Mild internal deterioration, mainly in Nasdaq, with BPs and Summations in initial stages of rolling over.  Classic short term Dover Sole bounce that I'm using to lighten up longs, and waiting to see if things get serious or not.  Breadth is good today, and has yet to see a breakdown of consequence. 

Bottom line, I think we're seeing the initial stages of a correction, but it's the part where price will go up a bit more and diverge from indicators.  It could last a few more weeks, but maybe not.  I'll probably wait until the fresh-new-money-from-the-sidelines gets put to work the first days of January before getting more aggresive.
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Sudaca, good to see you back and posting again..I agree with your comments and waiting to see what the 1st week of January looks like before testing the short waters..
hadjin
QUOTE(Sudaca @ Dec 27 2006, 03:08 PM)
sad.gif  R.I.P., King of Soul
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and

Gerald R. Ford, 38th President of the United States of America
Black Prince
Ok, would someone please tell me why everything except the Q's is up fairly good today. Is it just that I am long it?
cwd
It looks like all you Real Estate Speculators can relax. The correction is almost over. ohmy.gif or at least that is what they are saying on CNBS. Homies are flying laugh.gif

Sales of New Homes Post Gain in November

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
The Associated Press
Wednesday, December 27, 2006; 10:14 AM

WASHINGTON -- Sales of new homes rose in November while the backlog of unsold homes fell for a fourth straight month, providing hope that the serious slump in housing could be ending.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...6122700780.html
DrStool
The market will be closed on the day of Ford's funeral.
DrStool
It will stay open for GM's.
wndysrf
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 27 2006, 10:54 AM)
18 F here right now. Going down to zero tonight. That's about average. It often gets down to -20 or -30 F.
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You should come back to the states, where a Full Blown Energy Crash is taking place due to exceptionally balmy weather.

When I arrived in Louisville last week, it was 65 degrees.....
wndysrf
Last bears were wiped out on the open.

Now the PigMen are taking profits.

30% in a couple of weeks.

400% in 12 months.

Now that's real money.

No wonder GS is trading over $200.

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cwd
QUOTE(cwd @ Dec 27 2006, 10:55 AM)
It looks like all you Real Estate Speculators can relax. The correction is almost over. ohmy.gif or at least that is what they are saying on CNBS. Homies are flying laugh.gif

Sales of New Homes Post Gain in November

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
The Associated Press
Wednesday, December 27, 2006; 10:14 AM

WASHINGTON -- Sales of new homes rose in November while the backlog of unsold homes fell for a fourth straight month, providing hope that the serious slump in housing could be ending.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...6122700780.html
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Another snippet from the same article

The 3.4 percent rebound in sales last month was the third increase in the past four months. It helped to lift the median price for a new home to $251,700, an increase of 3.2 percent from a year ago. The median price is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

I am glad to know that the prices are still increasing. Housing prices always go up. Right Doc? unsure.gif Pissonme is on CNBS telling everybody everthing is wonderful keep buying, C breaking out. biggrin.gif
wndysrf
Once again, homebuilders are rallying on bad news.

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wndysrf
Countrywide on the brink of new, all-time, lifetime highs.

What's up with 'dem apples???

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wndysrf
Simply incredible.

Vast fortunes made on these China stocks.

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summoner
Playin out to script ph34r.gif Higher on fumes. Patience a must here.
wndysrf
There could be a Huge Move of Epic Proportions in the gold stocks very soon.

Cumulative cash flow has been buried for months, now back in the buy zone.

wndysrf
Summation Index is still headed down.

Yet the banks remain strong.

Another new, all-time, lifetime high.

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wndysrf
Biggest ARM lender in California.

What a power move off those summer lows.....

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DrStool
Housing is in a bear market rally. As I have repeatedly said, this is going to be a very long drawn out affair, with numerous upticks as bottom pickers rush in, only to be handed the bag on every downtick in mortgage rates.

Watch the 10 year yield here. It may be starting to break out above a 5 month downtrend line.

And watch what happens this spring, when all the discouraged sellers that pulled their homes off the market over the past two months, come back and try again.

It will be a bloodbath.
wndysrf
I'll be watching BRCM for clues.

Its sitting right on the 20-day and 50-day.

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wndysrf
As long as yields, banks, and homebuilders are rallying together, I guess its "all good".

The more credit insurance sold, the more "housing bubble" hedges put on.

The more dire the subprime market, the bigger the short positions placed on the usual suspects.

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wndysrf
I must refrain from shorting as long as the temp staffing firms and steel stocks continue to break out to new, all-time highs.

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wndysrf
Whee!!!

Aren't bubbles fun???

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