aussiebear
Dec 28 2006, 11:29 PM
aussiebear
Dec 28 2006, 11:30 PM
aussiebear
Dec 28 2006, 11:47 PM

Up, but fairly weak. All Ords currently +0.1% with Energy and Property Trusts, +0.7%, leading the green sectors. Amongst the reds, IT is down the most, -0.4%.
In the miners, BHP and RIO are slightly up, +0.2% but a couple of the golds are full steam ahead with Lihir and Newcrest +2.3% but Newmont, flat, is failing to participate.
The big oils are pulling in the same direction for a change: Woodside +0.4% and Santos +0.2%.
aussiebear
Dec 28 2006, 11:54 PM
U.K. Nationwide House Prices Rise for a 10th Month Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices rose in December for a 10th month, pushing the annual rate of property price inflation to the fastest pace since January 2005, a report by Nationwide Building Society showed today.
The average cost of a home gained 1.2 percent from November to 173,746 pounds ($339,800), Britain's third-biggest mortgage lender said today. Prices rose 10.5 percent from a year ago.
A lack of supply is helping support demand for U.K. property, Nationwide said. Still, property price inflation may slow after the Bank of England boosted borrowing costs twice in 2006. The pace of gains may slide to between 5 percent and 8 percent next year, Nationwide economist Fionnuala Earley said.
``We can't build houses quickly enough for the number of people who want to live in them,'' Earley said in an interview. ``The interest rate increases we've had up until now will begin to bite, and the market will cool back down into single digits by the end of 2007.''
---------------------
French Unemployment DropsDec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- France's unemployment rate decreased to the lowest in more than five years in November as the fastest growth since 2000 helped spur hiring.
Unemployment dropped by 26,000 from October to 2.37 million using International Labor Organization methods, the Labor Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. Economists expected a decrease of 20,000, according to the median estimate of 14 in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate fell to 8.7 percent from 8.8 percent.
A law making it easier to fire workers at small companies, measures to encourage the unemployed to take a job and a five- year plan subsidizing some jobs and apprenticeships contributed to the drop in the jobless rate from 10.1 percent in May 2005.
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 02:12 AM
Unveiling Britain’s True National Debt A recent study claims Britain’s national debt is three times higher than official government reports. If this is correct, Britain could be the most indebted nation in Europe. Yet, a UK Treasury spokesman claims the calculations are “spurious” because the government does not legally have to account for public sector pensions or liabilities of other publicly owned entities.
According to the study, conducted for the respected Center for Policy Studies, Britain’s public debt is around £1.34 trillion—the approximate equivalent of £53,000 per household in the UK—a far cry from the £487 billion the government officially reports.
As the study reveals, the UK government has promised, but not reported, £810 billion in pensions, plus £25 billion to other publicly funded interests like hospitals, schools and roads. The report also says that the government does not account for the £18 billion owed by the national utility Network Rail.
But Britain is not alone in misrepresenting its liabilities—America is in the same boat. If America were to officially report its Social Security, pension and Medicare liabilities, the true U.S. national debt would be not the $8.6 trillion it officially acknowledges, but close to $53 trillion—four times the value of all the goods and services produced in America for a full year!
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 03:18 AM
Long RMBS. Hammer off the long term trend line. Volume is not important.
Neither is waiting till the 3rd.
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 05:52 AM

A sideways to up move with an early close in preparation for New Year celebrations. All Ords +0.2% and it was low volume overall, not surprisingly. Property Trusts was the leader, +0.9% and Telecom dropped into the rear, -0.7%.
BHP and RIO came in pretty much flat and the golds were mixed.
Oils moved back into bipolar mode: Woodside +0.8% and Santos -0.1%.
Over in Asia, China soaring +2.8% and Taiwan +1.1% with negligible gains on the rest.
Over to UK/Europe:


http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 06:40 AM
Hmmmm, contrarians take note.
Motley Fools vote GOOG "worst" USA stock for 2007.
XMSR and SIRI on the list, too.
Story
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 10:50 AM
QUOTE(alceringa @ Dec 29 2006, 01:40 AM)
Hmmmm, contrarians take note.
Motley Fools vote GOOG "worst" USA stock for 2007.
XMSR and SIRI on the list, too.
Story XMSR is on Ledbeds list!

American stocks will probably underperform the world I guess.
I miss a couple points you made last night. I don't really understand this non-need for the USA for the Chinese to prosper. I think some domino effect happens which I guess could make both scenarios true.
I am focusing on domino effects. I do not believe any fake numbers that say otherwise. It doesn't seem fair that some of the info is ignored as fake but some of the info that seems to align with peoples beliefs gets more attention.
The only thing missing is M3 numbers. I guess that is the only one they couldn't manipulate.
Anyways, forget the states stocks next year. Short USA techs and go long Chinese ones or something may be in play. Who knows.
If the market goes up 20% then down 40% before regaining 20%, I guess everyone could still be right next year.
Isn't the Motley Fools record the same as the monkeys? It is just sprinkled with articles t make it seem they have the prefered views to pull in more readers?
What am I missing with China? I do not see it up on the chart 2.5% but down slightly???
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 11:29 AM
QUOTE(Tzu @ Dec 29 2006, 07:50 PM)
What am I missing with China? I do not see it up on the chart 2.5% but down slightly???
China chart:

If the Chinese middle class (the major consumers) is already around 200 million people and increasing exponentially do they really need the rapidly diminishing US middle class? That is the question....
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 11:41 AM
German Consumer Confidence Falls for a Second Month Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell for a second month on concern that tax increases will hurt incomes.
``Consumer confidence has passed its peak,'' said Klaus Wuebbenhorst, chief executive officer at GfK. ``With the tax hike and other burdens, German consumers have 23 billion euros ($30 billion) less in their pocket next year.''
Chancellor Angela Merkel is raising value-added tax, a sales levy, on Jan. 1 to help cut the country's budget deficit, and also plans to increase health insurance costs.
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 11:51 AM
QUOTE(linrom @ Dec 28 2006, 11:56 PM)
The logical question that none is asking now is when or how soon will China turn into Easter Island.
I think the US is far more likely to experience the Easter Island scenario than China.....
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 12:02 PM
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Dec 29 2006, 06:29 AM)
QUOTE(Tzu @ Dec 29 2006, 07:50 PM)
What am I missing with China? I do not see it up on the chart 2.5% but down slightly???
China chart:

If the Chinese middle class (the major consumers) is already around 200 million people and increasing exponentially do they really need the rapidly diminishing US middle class? That is the question....

Is their charts that say what the income levels are, how many people are surveyed etc?
How about pay packages? Is there any difference in a stock that blasts off and the shareholders profit vs. some american stock that doesn't take off because the CEO is taking home the entire profits for the year themselves?
Any 50 million dollar option holders etc. is my question or is that just the USA.
Japan doesn't have these issues. I would rather invest there than the USA next year. I think that is a main reason why our entire market is lagging the rest of the entire world. People are tired of it and have no need to gamble here anymore when they can do it with younger companies not yet raped by stock option scandals etc.
I guess this will surely catch up soon but no clue how many years that will be. Forget the states.
I do understand that the world will not need us soon but I don't think that time is anywhere close to now.
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 12:10 PM
Shanghai closed up 4.2%
HSI is the Hong Kong Market, the Hang Seng Index, aka the Hang Ten.
Source of confusion might be here.
Shanghai "A" Market- Mainland China Stocks traded in Yuan on mainland exchanges.
Shanghai "B" Market- Mainland China Stocks traded in foreign currency on mainland exchanges.
Shanghai "H"- A nickname for Mainland China Stocks traded on the Hong Kong exchange. Some mainland companies trade only in Hong Kong.
To add to the confusion, some Shanghai "H" companies also trade as ADR's on the NYSE, London, Frankfurt, etc. exchanges, but not on China mainland exchanges.
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 12:33 PM
Sorry for postathon but I think I am making some important points at a critical time.
Out of all the talking on M2M last night, nobody gave me one single idea on what to hedge short for the crash on the 3rd. No options home run ideas or anything to hedge short besides APPLE, GOOG and QID.
Why? If a crash happened you wouldn't want to load puts after that day#1 unless you like paying massive premiums. Seems that is the plan for most including myself. I at least need to figure out 2 ideas to buy otm leap puts on for insurance. Mark me down for complete losses on them automatically.
This is the same thing as people limping into the poker pot because the price was right with expectations of probably failing. When the numbers are right, you will see 100% of the pros do this every single time.
Day#2 wouldn't be in their plans imo...they would wait patiently for another lower risk opportunity and fold a winning hand.
Learning poker is great fun, just ask Annie Duke the psychology mastress...
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 12:39 PM
Don't have the link, but about a month or 6 weeks ago one of the senior Board members of the People's Bank of China (the central bank), criticized the Federal Reserve's decision to stop publishing M3 numbers.
His basic point was that without knowing what M3 there is no way for other Central Bankers to calculate what a US dollar is "really" worth and therefore to properly value their own foreign reserves.
No other significant Central Bank in the world seems willing to follow the Fed's lead on with holding M3 data.
For chrissakes, even New Zealand, population less than LA County, California, publishes M3 data.
Against this stunning state of affairs, calls for China to float their own currency by the USA must bring both great belly laughs and real anger to Chinesse officials.
For China's central bankers, the solution to their "bookkeeping problem" is almost a no-brainer.
Sell US dollars and buy other currencies and "stuff", like oil, gold, industrial metals and mining rights in vast tracks of Africa.
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 01:00 PM
Tzu-
If you're ever in Arizona, take a drive through the Navajo Reservations.
You will be absolutely shocked at the conditions that those proud people are forced to live in.
aussiebear
Dec 29 2006, 01:01 PM
Alceringa, I have to admit to becoming increasingly concerned for the people of America. Thanks to poor US leadership and corruption the economy will almost certainly tip into recession in the not too distant future. The leaders have failed to understand that money is power and quite frankly, the US is broke. Not only that but once jobs disappear then I fear that there will be a backlash against illegals. If I was one of the latter I would be getting the heck out of Dodge with whatever I had managed to accrue, NOW!
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 01:15 PM
Check me out up 4% on AAPL this morning. I just noticed since I was blabbing away for the last 2 hours straight.
Another 2% on CHINA....yawn!
I'm selling QID and gaming Chinese momo's instead of watching the USA bsathon.
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 01:21 PM
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Dec 30 2006, 12:01 AM)
Alceringa, I have to admit to becoming increasingly concerned for the people of America. Thanks to poor US leadership and corruption the economy will almost certainly tip into recession in the not too distant future. The leaders have failed to understand that money is power and quite frankly, the US is broke. Not only that but once jobs disappear then I fear that there will be a backlash against illegals. If I was one of the latter I would be getting the heck out of Dodge with whatever I had managed to accrue, NOW!
Lots of reasons why I decided to
Escape from America.
Failed political and social leadership is one of them. Corruption, in the sense of moral corruption, is another.
alceringa
Dec 29 2006, 01:26 PM
Speaking of China MoMo plays-
Builds out networks for the various Chinesse government outfits.

Would say do your own DD, but right now their web-site is down.
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 02:01 PM
Check out CHA. Looks like it has an early morning case of the "mystery volume. Up 4.5% on 7500 shares from the plant Uranus.
12/28/06 18:29:47 51.45 51.45 53.51 23000012/28/06 18:29:47 51.45 51.45 53.51 0
12/29/06 07:58:25 53.74 53.60 55.20 -22240012/29/06 07:59:13 53.74 53.60 55.19 0
divide by 2, add 3 and mix with 1 cup of water.
Tzu
Dec 29 2006, 02:08 PM
LMAO.
DJ Apple Shares +3%;Panel Has 'Complete Confidence' In CEO
12/29/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
12-29-06 0716ET
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
=DJ Apple Options Review Exonerates Jobs; Shares Rise
By George Stahl
of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) will restate financial data going back to 2002 and take an $84 million charge after a board committee found the company had misdated thousands of stock options grants to employees and executives, but the committee also exonerated current management and the chief executive, saying it has "complete confidence in Steve Jobs."
The findings seemed to ease Wall Street's concerns that Apple's involvement in the stock-options backdating scandal could endanger Jobs, who is seen as the driving force behind Apple's comeback. Reports this week that an award to Jobs didn't have proper board approval and that some documents may have been falsified led to volatility in Apple shares. Following the disclosures Friday, Apple shares rose 3.8% in premarket trading.
"The board of directors is confident that the Company has corrected the problems that led to the restatement, and it has complete confidence in Steve Jobs and the senior management team," Al Gore, chairman of the special board committee, and Jerome York, chairman of Apple's Audit and Finance Committee, said in a joint statement in Apple's press release.
Apple announced the additional details of its investigation in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The findings conform to earlier statements from the company that Jobs was aware of the favorable grant dates and that there was no misconduct by Apple's current management. The review added, however, that Jobs recommended some of the favorable grant dates, though he didn't profit from them.
http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?...0aebqLqWmde1nZK That is even better than the Sadaam hanging that will be on youtube next week.
Just took profits on half my position. Average is way down there now
Yaryman
Dec 29 2006, 02:22 PM
A different perspective on the stock markets.
Saturn BacklitOn the left side of the photo there is a little blue dot just outside of the rings, that's Earth.
I_Am_Madness
Dec 29 2006, 02:34 PM
What is happening to LFC?
I_Am_Madness
Dec 29 2006, 02:37 PM
Looks like LFC broke uptrend.
I_Am_Madness
Dec 29 2006, 02:53 PM
Awesome bounce from 50!!!
51.80 now. All gap down will be closed.
I_Am_Madness
Dec 29 2006, 02:56 PM
Options writers taking LFC to the bank.
Everything is down...
Puts
Calls
the stock.
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 03:10 PM
It's a more seasonal 5 degrees here today. Even that is temperate compared to the 20-30 below it gets when it's really cold. Virtually all homes are heated with electricity from HydroQuebec. As its name implies, the power is hydro electric. Quebec is an exporter of electricity. It sells power to the US grid.
linrom
Dec 29 2006, 03:25 PM
I guess that China© is going to make it to the top of the list of every money manager.

I also bet that energy and metals won't be far behind.
So it's very easy to full proof your portfolio to outperform in 2007. Just buy China, gold, energy and short US stocks and you are guaranteed a huge profit.

Hey better yet, exchange your dollars for yuan.
Black Prince
Dec 29 2006, 03:36 PM
Okay, I give up. Q's languish for ever making me sad cause I am long then out of no where it explodes today to the upside. Anyone know why?
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 03:49 PM
Bull suck-in.
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 04:00 PM
linrom
Dec 29 2006, 04:25 PM
[attachmentid=74567]
Despite bearish inventory outlook $XNG refuses to go down. Why?
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 04:31 PM
Refusing to go down is a matter of perspective. Down 8% in 3 weeks isn't exactly refusing to go down.
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 04:35 PM
Looks to me like the bet on energy prices recovering has reversed over that time.
As LeeWhee pointed out in a recent podcast, in the end stages of a blowoff, it's only about the momentum, as the momo chasers disregard widely recognized deteriorating fundamentals.
DrStool
Dec 29 2006, 04:41 PM
Another possible outcome.
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:42 PM
Wow!!!!
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:46 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 29 2006, 11:10 AM)
It's a more seasonal 5 degrees here today. Even that is temperate compared to the 20-30 below it gets when it's really cold. Virtually all homes are heated with electricity from HydroQuebec. As its name implies, the power is hydro electric. Quebec is an exporter of electricity. It sells power to the US grid.
Doc:
Come back to the states.
We are awash in energy.
I'm getting my van converted to run on natural gas.
I've been running my gas heat wide open full blast at night, knowing my gas bill will never be over $30/mo. this winter.
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:47 PM
Nice of the boyz to make stock trading so easy!!!
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:50 PM
Put/call closed at .92 yesterday.
Today, its been pegged over 1.00 all morning.
Looks like everyone is gunning for a New Year Collapse like we had in 2005.
Except more Dow stocks are making fresh, new, 52-week highs.

wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:53 PM
Market sells off intraday.
Where do investors go?
They flock to the safety and security of homebuilding stocks and mortgage lenders.

linrom
Dec 29 2006, 04:53 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 29 2006, 11:31 AM)
Refusing to go down is a matter of perspective. Down 8% in 3 weeks isn't exactly refusing to go down.
When NatGas declines 44%, 8% decline has to be put into perspective. Such as: is the current weather pattern temporary; are we going to return to more typical hurricane seasons; or something else. The fact that NatGas stocks have not collapsed, could be indicative of future strength.
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:55 PM
zman
Dec 29 2006, 04:57 PM
Lee, great podcast and eye opening for sure...interesting times await for sure
wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 04:58 PM
QUOTE(linrom @ Dec 29 2006, 12:53 PM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Dec 29 2006, 11:31 AM)
Refusing to go down is a matter of perspective. Down 8% in 3 weeks isn't exactly refusing to go down.
The fact that NatGas stocks have not collapsed could be indicative of future strength.
No doubt the market is very strong.
Natural gas is at fresh, two year lows and crude is at new 52-week lows.
Yet the XOI and XNG are near all-time highs.

wndysrf
Dec 29 2006, 05:01 PM
Put/call ratios are still pegged over .90
Today, the IBD reported that the NYSE Short Interest Ratio was 6.89 only a hair off the 5-year high of 6.94 set in August 2006.
The 5-year low is 4.00, recorded in December 2003.
Peek Paper
Dec 29 2006, 05:11 PM
The only question about AAPL is when to take further advantage of this short-squeeze gift.
If corporations are required to mark employee option grants to market, then why, in Jobs case, is the value of an unexercised option zero?
I suppose he's relinquished them.
Does AAPL then make a positive earnings restatement based on the unrealized loss of a huge in-the-money options expense that is not exercised ? Jobs' underlying equity holdings have done quite well today.
And bogus records of corporate meetings that never occured ? Gimme a break...
I love AAPL products, btw. The computers weren't moving like they were last year at the stores I visited, but the flash pods were smokin'.
Stock won't see zero anytime soon, but it won't revisit 93 either. My guess is a 50's landing sometime in 2007.
robin hoodlum
Dec 29 2006, 05:37 PM
Dow is red ! kwik everyone buy puts!
Black Prince
Dec 29 2006, 05:38 PM
I always told my wife she should do more housework now I can say it is good for her health.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6214655.stm
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