The eternal question now is will AEM and likes of gold stocks continue up to a May high. From October lows we have a trend channel. The yellow horizontal line is a 1/2 pullback from Oct. low to May high. We also show supply at the recent high on the weekly. Whether we now absorb into that resistance and break through is the question to ponder.


http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1167401100.png

XAU:

I'm more cautious.

I think the correction of the downtrend from May has some more downside to run.

Gold:

If we impulsed up, a correction should follow--a countertrend downward move in an abc pattern should follow. They don't have to be simple abc zig zags. They can be multiple formationns.

Here are some:

http://www.elliott-wave-theory.com/elliott...sic_corrections.

Besause they meander, often they'll give a clue through bullish divergence on MASD or RSI as they rech price lows

None of that exists here. Gold has bottoms at around 615 on either side of it's December top and may be setting up a small-time Head and shoulders.

Edited for content. Expired.

Best,

TCG

Well well well. Was that it? A little correction and now it's over? Maybe, maybe not? Not really a good decision-maker, the old maybe maybe not so I have a strategy to deal with these potential turns. Take AEM. (Please?) It's on a cusp of a turn back to positive. GLD has gone positive and AUY never quite sold. On the other hand NEM and GDX are still on a SHORT, with NEM looking weak. The silvers through SLV and SLW have a ways to go to turn back positive. So what's a good way to play the turns. I would suggest (if you can) to shorten your timeframe.
First here is my LT timing table.


[attachmentid=74622]

Now the daily chart to show how AEM corrected to CASH and now looks like a move above 42 would be a move back to long,losing $1 in the process from the move to CASH at $41. Can we beat that?


[attachmentid=74623]

On the 5 minutes we started with a Friday sell-off then a mid-day flat and an afternoon recovery but it didn't hold after 2 pm and went negative again. So by simply playing the 5 minutes until both the closing 5 minutes and dailies are aligned on the LONG side you can stay on the right side of the trend.


[attachmentid=74624]

XAU:

My bearish count is gaining ascendency. The chart below is the weekly, though the comments relate, generally, to the daily charts of the individual components

The failure to take out 153.15 has put a lot of trend oscillators--and especially Aroon--on sell signals.

My on balance volume indicators are very bearish.

In both cases, this could be a function of the holidays.

Moreover, the double doji's (on many ot the component charts though not on XAU itself) over the last two trading days are ominous.

I'm beginning to think that wave 2 is not over.

After an impulse up, we have 2 abc's on the chart-one up and one down.

It could be a WXY--3 abc's indicating a much lower market.

Judging by the trendlines, I'm looking for an irregular flat. This last move down will be a sharp, but brief impulse down---a 3-3-5 overall. Possibly a bottom in mid-January between 126 and 137.

The daily shows an unfilled gap at 126.29 to 126.51.

I wish everybody a Happy 2007

Be happy and make money

In Euro and Gold and Goldmines 2006 was a non event

happy new year to all!
the next few years should be very positive for the metals. this consolidation,since may, is very bullish. when bull markets consolidate they come out in the direction they came in. which, will be up. as i have said before, in retrospect this will be seen as a consolidation in the parabolic. i have taken a position in this market and use weakness as an opportunity to add. dharma

Sy Harding reports -
"The year’s big winner was gold, which gained 23.2%"

GLD
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1167715154.png

Thanks to Wndy for pointing out how Peter Schiff almost got laughed off the air, I was laughing about his comments when Ben and Paulson went to China as the “mother of all butt kissings.”

The http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=3487

US$ doing a swan dive this early morning. Silver playing with $13 and gold wants $640.

Fascinating.

The retest in the 84 area is resistance and it's probably apparent for Buck Bulls to get out... at the moment I'm not sure if we just made a new low http://dvtechtalk.com/January/January2.htm

IF the ease of movement down in silver turns out to be a shakeout, then somebody is going to be saying.. Oh crap..

SLV
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1167760119.png

So... do US markets open tommorrow. FWIW, the TSX gold index is up almost 4 points today in Canada.

Been tracking G.TO last and this week, and although it is up quite a percentage, it is up on very tiny volume. That's why I expected a massive sell off today - but maybe we get it when US markets open? (G.TO trading at about 1/8th average volume)

Happy New Year Golden Stoolies!

It appears that Gold will once again face an uphill battle with the bearz at 650 most likely this week. If the bulls have what it takes to close cash gold over this level for at least two consecutive sessions, then 670-680 will likely be a given. Silver has now cleared resistance at 13 but in my view, we need clear confirmation from the floor in tommorrow's COMEX session as the funds could continue to sell it down. If the funds turn into heavy buyers, then 15 is still the next intermediate target. We may have a similiar setup in early '07 as last year when the metals turned bullish at the end of '06 and continued strong until the 1st week of February. Lets see if this plays out again as expected..

faramir, year end makes it difficult to get a read on volume.
seems that lots of folks are looking for a retest of 560,pssst turn around! dharma

Good point. Year end holiday trading can likely mess all the readings up.

560? I highly doubt that.

Anyone give me their take on Barrick? It seems like you guys could care less about fundies, and focus on TA only. Would you avoid Barrick like the plague because of its toxic hedge book?

Dan Vailoux's chart on Barrick in Toronto yesterday:

http://dvtechtalk.com/January/January3.htm

And my chart:

XAU:

Bollinger Bands portend volatility ahead.

They'll continue to compress in the absence of an upside breakout.

Coupled with my wave count, the volatility should be to the downside.

The indices:

This guy's got an excellent analysis of where we are on the indices.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rosen010107.html

The majority of Elliottians say that the MAY highs were the top of wave 1 or the top of wave 3 of 3.

They count the 3 wave correction into October 4th as 3 waves down in a completed correction. Thus, they say, we're impulsing up in a wave 1 of 3 or wave 5 of 3. Either way, it should be spectular as 3rd and 5th waves in the commodities are very strong.

I tend to disagree. I see this move as a larger abc. The 3 wave move off the May highs into the June lows was wave A of the correction.

I see the move from June to September and September to October as being part of a lesser degree trend and not as the B and C waves of the correction.

Thus, I count the current rally as the completion of wave c of B--still counter-trend correcting--and not as the start of an impulsive wave up.

On my analysis, there is another dip to come and that is the dip to be bought.

Of course, I'll be wrong if we take out 149.95 and likely right if we take out 137.15.

No intervention during the four day holiday and the spot prices rise, now we return you to our regularly scheduled programming.

I have allways had a simple strategy that may be flawed

First buy enough physical to protect yourself agains mine problems or whatever
I seem to remember the moment the Belgian Congo became Zaire and
the Belgian mine engineers came home the mines did not produce that much any more

Second buy a long lived boring but dividend paying miner for me that is Anglogold

Third buy a miner in a foreign currency ; for me that is Kinross

Four go for more marginal miners : for me Harmony and Drooy

Five not there yet ; go into juniors and explorers ( not there yet )

Six go into gold options ( not there yet )

On all these I will trade 20-25% selling on extreme strenghs and buying back lower

In my simple strategy there is no room for a Barrick

SSRI looks ugly to me. I'm long in my core equity portfolio (and would probably sell if I had any sense or something shorter than my very long time horizon, god willing) and now long puts that I'll trade for a quick profit if I can. On the other hand, the stock seems to be defying gravity, essentially not significantly going red today despite the cliff dive in spot silver, while SLW, for instance, is off 4.3% right now. Weird. Cultish maybe.

Another look. And would somebody please say timber so I can unload these puts and get on with life?

The apparent ease of movement down and grind back in silver or SLV still has supply evident.

RGLD reacting from 37 area PnF potential reached

I guess the reality of BV's count is manifesting.

Timber.

looks like your count my alternate is the one that's manifesting bv, nice work. dharma

Do you still like Kinross now that is has Russian exposure with Bema?

I started with Echo Bay in 1998 like and lost 90% of the first purchase cost
averaging all the way down
I am now up at 200 % of the purchase cost
In my strategy started 1998 Kinross is a sell of 20% of the shares at the upper trendline to be replaced by a junior canadian to be identified

My current problem child is Drooy but on the last purchase I am 7 % up

I have a strategy that worked fine in the 1975 - 1980 timeframe
moving from solid to risky spreading over countries and having physical gold
and finally moving into options ( no margin calls )

For an investor it seems best to have a simple strategy and stick to that strategy especially if every roundtrip purchase-sell costs 3% or more

I have seen leadership rotate and shares revert to the mean
I am committed since 1998 to the gold bull
But it seems that Kinross and Harmony are today the two out of four best shares I have

Problem is that from 5 shares on you are allready tracking market movements like 85% and you could as well just take any gold tracker index and save yourselve the trouble of selecting individual stocks

This all being said I think that the Russians who have just found the benefits of capitalism worry me a lot less then South America

BV:
It appears that you are disagreeing with Rosen that the ABC is complete then?
And could this not be seen as an abcde we are now in e off the top in XAU?

also, why do you set the range as 137-126?

XAU:

If the May high was a 3rd wave, we could see an abcde. Triangles form in 4th waves. My broad targets of 137 to 126 were a range between a 38% correction of the rally off the October bottom to a decline to the gap in the 126's.

I think the May high was wave 1. Since then, we've had an abc down and an abc up. That means that we're either in a WXY (abc/abc/abc) or a flat (3-3-5).

The weekly shows a rising trendline at around 130-32.

The P&F shows an attraction zone around 130-32.

130ish is around a 61.8% retracement of the rally off the October lows.

That's where I intend to buy. I think the pattern will be an irregular flat, with a brief but scary impulse down to that level.

If we take out the trendline, there's a gap around 125.41 to 126.45. The actual vacuum is from 126.29 to 126.51.

If Y=W, we could see 100.

XAU:

Here's the case for 100 on the XAU.

HUI:

I don't subscribe to the "triangle" analysis.

A triangle would violate the long term uptrend line.

The downside risk is now less than 10%.

The upside is tremendous as we move into wave 3 after this dip.

BV; using a linear XAU chart we are backtesting the breakout line from the May highs is all here....take a gander at 2003-2004 august-sept and 2001 dec-jan for comparisons...we will know shortly...in those periods the backtest appeared to fail by a couple %

Bearvest would it be able for you to comment on attached charts ?

As I understand it they are the official Elliot wave charts free for once in German

According to this we are ready for wave iii of 5

I asked Seven and he says the timing and the graphics make this a " lower wave" count
We both agree the max cannot be in 2007
If wave 1-2-3-4-5 of this graph become a wave I of an higher order is there a possibility to time III or V in time or price ?
Scroll to the second chart first for an overview
Thanks

http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/...hp?storyid=3725

ageka, that count is a low probability! and since gold does not make a new high w/their projected top for 5, its a correction within a bear market for them, which i dont think will be true!
i am looking for a low the 17-22 of jan. xau-131 hui=303.74. i am still counting the oct. low as the end of the abc. and the rally as a wave 1 and this as wave c of 2. dharma

NAK .. retraced to $7.08 .. I'll buy as close to there as possible.

If I'm way offbase and thinking foolish, anybody feel free to let me know.. thanks.

Stellar analysis BV; I get 319 or 308 (50 and 62% retraces off 10/06 low; 308 is 60mPnF target; so far, 319 held).

GFI is lowest risk here; look at the monthly; revisiting the base breakout.

last chance saloon for GLD. If it holds the bottom channel then 67-68 is still probable although a close under the channel is likely to bring much lower prices..

I think that the move off the october low was an impulse, a wave 1 of 1 of this next move up. I think we are now in C of 2 of 1.

Alternately, it could be as bearvest is counting.

Either way, not much downside left.

Both nations worry me, but Russia more, since it is becoming apparent it is regarded by Putin as his little KGB fiefdom. Nationalization of mining assets doesn't appear to be far off.

Part of Seven's answer was following

On a more practical basis we are now in day 34 of what still is a nominal 107 day cycle having had a short and a long cycle since the highs

oh man .. got that "pit" feeling in my stomach. Where are the Tums ?

Well, does that mean it's time to step up and buy ??

hadjin, i personally am waiting. i raised some cash yesterday w/the reversal. there are no divergences on the hourly xau/hui charts, although they are Dover Sole. buying weakness in a bull market is never a bad idea, it is a matter of timing though. the possibilites are we test 115 as a triangle, least likely poss. the other is 10/4 was the end of the abc and the rally was the wave 1, which is the idea that i am favoring. we are now in c of 2 and probably finishing 3 of c. so, if that is correct than a rally followed by the final decline. and if the triangle idea is the correct one then the scenerio of a rally and a final decline will still be the same. i will post as soon as i can when the hourly divergences occur. i use a 9bar wilder rsi to determine that. all the best. dharma

thanks dharma .. well, as usual, I try to hold through these; and am fully in.

They are bone crushing when they come; not fun.

I was in a car accident a year ago
Damaged ribs
I went to work next day anyway
I would describe sitting through a gold share correction as being a mild pain compaired to damaged ribs
I do not even lose sleep over it
As allways I have been fully re-invested way too early but I am putting all new money into physical in the meantime

Since we didn't manage to get a small reversal today, I take it we still have more damage to come? Problem is are we not dangerously close to completing a head and shoulders - which means we challenge the Oct lows?