Will GFI go the way of Drooy or is this the end of supply? Demand shows up a tad right at support.
Full Version: Monthly Digger - February 2007
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Day early for the new thread. Time to look at monthly charts.
Thank you Bernanke!
To me, what they are doing (inflating the money supply), makes sense, and is really the only thing they can do. The U.S. has tremendous debt, both the government and the average consumer, and thus inflation helps alleviate the debt while deflation would compound it.
They destroy the economy if they stop adding liquidity, so they must continue the course they are on. The ones they are screwing are the savers who are holding dollars that are declining in value. (And those holding bonds, etc). Savers who hold MONEY (gold and silver), will benefit. A large and growing percentage of the U.S. debt is held by foreigners, so from the U.S. perspective it makes sense to take the course of action that saves those at home (saving them from their debt by inflating it away so its easier to pay back), and screws the foreigners (reduces the value of their dollar denominated assets, that they are now holding a large amount of).
The U.S. has tricked China and other countries into accepting paper in exchange for goods, and now is making sure it doesnt have to pay back the same amount of value in the future, by reducing the value of that paper.
It will continue, and its good for gold. And eventually when China and the other countries get tired of losing purchasing power and move out of the dollar, thats even BETTER for gold.
The Fed will NOT allow deflation, it is their greatest fear. They would choose inflation over even the CHANCE of deflation.
Remember that their economic belief is that the great depression was caused by the fact that due to the gold standard, the money supply could not be increased sufficiently to ward off deflation. Now that they dont have the gold standard anymore, they attempt to avoid another depression by not allowing deflation to occur. They will inflate to any amount to prevent it. Their goal is to keep inflating while not allowing the inflation to get out of control. They may or may not succeed in this. But it seems they prefer even out of control inflation to deflation.
Remember who benefits from inflation and who from deflation:
Debtors want inflation
Holders of real estate and stocks want inflation
This describes most americans. Thus inflation is the popular option.
Savers (who hold money in dollars) and Bondholders want deflation, so their savings buy more stuff.
The portion of U.S. debt owned by foreigners is large and growing. Therefore the popular course of action in the U.S. would be to inflate, save the debtors and screw those in other countries that they owe.
Obviously I write this all from a U.S. persepctive. But knowing what those who are in charge of the U.S. economy want, is important for investors anywhere.
This is why we invest in precious metals: because the Fed is COMMITTED to a course of action which inflationary, and precious metals benefit more from inflation and the creation of more money than any other asset class.
To me, what they are doing (inflating the money supply), makes sense, and is really the only thing they can do. The U.S. has tremendous debt, both the government and the average consumer, and thus inflation helps alleviate the debt while deflation would compound it.
They destroy the economy if they stop adding liquidity, so they must continue the course they are on. The ones they are screwing are the savers who are holding dollars that are declining in value. (And those holding bonds, etc). Savers who hold MONEY (gold and silver), will benefit. A large and growing percentage of the U.S. debt is held by foreigners, so from the U.S. perspective it makes sense to take the course of action that saves those at home (saving them from their debt by inflating it away so its easier to pay back), and screws the foreigners (reduces the value of their dollar denominated assets, that they are now holding a large amount of).
The U.S. has tricked China and other countries into accepting paper in exchange for goods, and now is making sure it doesnt have to pay back the same amount of value in the future, by reducing the value of that paper.
It will continue, and its good for gold. And eventually when China and the other countries get tired of losing purchasing power and move out of the dollar, thats even BETTER for gold.
The Fed will NOT allow deflation, it is their greatest fear. They would choose inflation over even the CHANCE of deflation.
Remember that their economic belief is that the great depression was caused by the fact that due to the gold standard, the money supply could not be increased sufficiently to ward off deflation. Now that they dont have the gold standard anymore, they attempt to avoid another depression by not allowing deflation to occur. They will inflate to any amount to prevent it. Their goal is to keep inflating while not allowing the inflation to get out of control. They may or may not succeed in this. But it seems they prefer even out of control inflation to deflation.
Remember who benefits from inflation and who from deflation:
Debtors want inflation
Holders of real estate and stocks want inflation
This describes most americans. Thus inflation is the popular option.
Savers (who hold money in dollars) and Bondholders want deflation, so their savings buy more stuff.
The portion of U.S. debt owned by foreigners is large and growing. Therefore the popular course of action in the U.S. would be to inflate, save the debtors and screw those in other countries that they owe.
Obviously I write this all from a U.S. persepctive. But knowing what those who are in charge of the U.S. economy want, is important for investors anywhere.
This is why we invest in precious metals: because the Fed is COMMITTED to a course of action which inflationary, and precious metals benefit more from inflation and the creation of more money than any other asset class.
That is the long term picture, and its the primary reason why we're now in a bull market.
In the shorter term, there will be times of large corrections and bull phases. It seems very clear to me that we bottomed in october, and are headed up. In a shorter time frame, after the december top, we were in a downtrend until early january. We have now broken out from that downtrend line, retested it, and bounced off it, going higher. The move is getting underway and will soon accelerate. This is a time to be fully long.
In the shorter term, there will be times of large corrections and bull phases. It seems very clear to me that we bottomed in october, and are headed up. In a shorter time frame, after the december top, we were in a downtrend until early january. We have now broken out from that downtrend line, retested it, and bounced off it, going higher. The move is getting underway and will soon accelerate. This is a time to be fully long.
QUOTE(Charmin @ Jan 31 2007, 01:55 PM)
Will GFI go the way of Drooy or is this the end of supply? Demand shows up a tad right at support.
Massive base between 10-15. Actually backtesting the general area of the breakout. Might dip a bit underneath but of no concern to me.
When corn rockets 80% in 5 months you know your right Ander.
Everything is fine and dandy according to the govt. though.
Everything is fine and dandy according to the govt. though.
Oct. 4.. may be the last time we see it
RNO moving up
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170285184.png
RNO moving up
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170285184.png
Very soon all first day openers who held SLV will be winners
SLV
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170285264.png
SLV
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170285264.png
Era of disinflation and paper stuff ended a few years ago...around 2000-ish, when gold bottomed.
This is inflation time. Play it to the end, imo.
Bond yields will confirm this secular change soon enough.
GLD 65 should signal the next leg up for the 'relic'.
Place your bets.
This is inflation time. Play it to the end, imo.
Bond yields will confirm this secular change soon enough.
GLD 65 should signal the next leg up for the 'relic'.
Place your bets.
PCU was very decisive at 50. support with trendline. Powerful spot
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170294132.png
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170294132.png
MRB - lifetime new high
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170300006.png
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1170300006.png
ander, i am w/you. as long as there are wars, they will inflate by necessity. i am 100% long and probably will hold til the 80 highs are taken out. then i will reasses. 150 on the xau is formidable resistance but that too will ultimately be taken out. dharma
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PoP .. WoW .. Gold $659, Silver $13.71
GOLD 02/01/2007 07:53 657.70 659.20 +5.80
+0.89%
SILVER 02/01/2007 07:53 13.61 13.71 +0.16
+1.19%
GOLD 02/01/2007 07:53 657.70 659.20 +5.80
+0.89%
SILVER 02/01/2007 07:53 13.61 13.71 +0.16
+1.19%
I see near highs or new highs with some steel stocks as supportive
MFN
MRB
PAAS
SSRI
PCU
RTI
RIO
STLD
X
CHAP
AKS
leadership for now
MFN
MRB
PAAS
SSRI
PCU
RTI
RIO
STLD
X
CHAP
AKS
leadership for now
Boing.... Katie bar the door ! $661., $13.82
GOLD
02/01/2007
09:04
660.00
661.50
+8.10
+1.24%
654.80
661.50
SILVER
02/01/2007
09:04
13.72
13.82
+0.27
+2.01%
13.57
13.82
GOLD
02/01/2007
09:04
660.00
661.50
+8.10
+1.24%
654.80
661.50
SILVER
02/01/2007
09:04
13.72
13.82
+0.27
+2.01%
13.57
13.82
buy stops filled this morning about 1.60 over the set 661.20 GCJ buy price. This tells me that many other traders had buy stops hit in this breakout region. When this has occured previously during major price breakouts, that buy level then became very strong support. my speculation now is that 660 basis GCJ is now that support platform. also added more silver on a buy stop as well @ 13.70..
Onward to glory, mates! 
Now if TRE could just play catch up with the rest of 'em. Long GG, AUY, TRE, SSRI, and SLW.
Now if TRE could just play catch up with the rest of 'em. Long GG, AUY, TRE, SSRI, and SLW.
now i am looking for a high in march! 730 should be challanged. this should be a very good period. hope you all loaded up. my boat is full. this was fulfilling. dharma
142.5 major resistance was hit today and the market backed off. also could have finished 5 waves from the jan low. think we correct here for a bit. dharma
Someone posted this chart on Kitco and I have say that the comparison to '79 is very eerie. If the formation resembles where the gold price is at right now, then the upside could reach much further than 730. This is a great chart imo...
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=2565
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=2565
Wow, that is rediculously similar to the 1979 chart! Though the timescale o nthe current chart is longer.
QUOTE(dharma @ Feb 1 2007, 03:27 PM)
142.5 major resistance was hit today and the market backed off. also could have finished 5 waves from the oct low. think we correct here for a bit. dharma
Just a little full moon top to deal with now. Shouldn't hurt too much.
QUOTE(dharma @ Feb 1 2007, 03:27 PM)
142.5 major resistance was hit today and the market backed off. also could have finished 5 waves from the oct low. think we correct here for a bit. dharma
I am worried about this being some ABC X ABC thingee Dharma, just finished the latter B: if so watch out below> if we drop fast, not good
hedo, its a possibility. my favored count is we finished a 5 and this is the correction.
i have been saying ad nauseum, this is a high level consolidation which will serve as a base for a big upmove. i think we are there 3of 3. there is an alternate which makes me more conservative,ala the 730, when that is taken out then we can talk about projections
realist the similarity of 79 - today is uncanny. thanks dharma
i have been saying ad nauseum, this is a high level consolidation which will serve as a base for a big upmove. i think we are there 3of 3. there is an alternate which makes me more conservative,ala the 730, when that is taken out then we can talk about projections
realist the similarity of 79 - today is uncanny. thanks dharma
Crapvision's "Power Lunch" is going to have a special called .."Going for the Gold" , asking if you can still make $$ Gold. Scheduled either today or this weekend.
I sure hope they aren't going to promote it's prospects...
I sure hope they aren't going to promote it's prospects...
Perfect setup to bust out all of the new specs in gold today. gotta be very experienced to stomach these declines and to understand the true psychology of what is happening in the gold/silver market at the moment. SLV pulled back to its 15 EMA and snaped right back. let's see if prices can recover a bit by the close of open-outcry.. 
I wish I understood what was happening. Shorts creating one last opportunity to cover lower to avoid having their nads handed to them? A hedge fund imploding? New longs getting cold feet? No clue. But I'm holding long for now. And hoping. Which is dangerous. 
looking at the bigger picture, i believe that we have hit some kind of major low in the commodites bull cycle. i'm using today's weakness to add into further energy and gold related positions. 
Just when I thought the bottom is in .... either it isn't in or this is one of the slowest gold rallies in recent history. 
Dharma:
How would you know if my count became favoured? IN other words a simple 2 in your count versus a C down in mine?
This did look a bit impulsive down this am, and i see some complacency around...
color me worried that we could see 290 HUI
How would you know if my count became favoured? IN other words a simple 2 in your count versus a C down in mine?
This did look a bit impulsive down this am, and i see some complacency around...
color me worried that we could see 290 HUI
QUOTE(dharma @ Feb 2 2007, 10:13 AM)
hedo, its a possibility. my favored count is we finished a 5 and this is the correction.
i have been saying ad nauseum, this is a high level consolidation which will serve as a base for a big upmove. i think we are there 3of 3. there is an alternate which makes me more conservative,ala the 730, when that is taken out then we can talk about projections
realist the similarity of 79 - today is uncanny. thanks dharma
i have been saying ad nauseum, this is a high level consolidation which will serve as a base for a big upmove. i think we are there 3of 3. there is an alternate which makes me more conservative,ala the 730, when that is taken out then we can talk about projections
realist the similarity of 79 - today is uncanny. thanks dharma
appreantl;y a hedge fund blow up
quote=Private Skidmark,Feb 2 2007, 11:40 AM]
I wish I understood what was happening. Shorts creating one last opportunity to cover lower to avoid having their nads handed to them? A hedge fund imploding? New longs getting cold feet? No clue. But I'm holding long for now. And hoping. Which is dangerous.
[/quote]
quote=Private Skidmark,Feb 2 2007, 11:40 AM]
I wish I understood what was happening. Shorts creating one last opportunity to cover lower to avoid having their nads handed to them? A hedge fund imploding? New longs getting cold feet? No clue. But I'm holding long for now. And hoping. Which is dangerous.
[/quote]
Another hedge fund in trouble, in the metals markets.
But if that explains the move of today ??
http://tinyurl.com/yt8lab
Red Kite to extend redemption notice period
High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January
_____________________________________________________________________
Red Kite to extend redemption notice period
High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:13 PM ET Feb 1, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Red Kite Management, a $1 billion metals trading hedge fund, wants to extend the notice period for investor redemptions after losses of as much as 15% in January, according to documents obtained by MarketWatch and people familiar with the firm's performance.
Red Kite, run by Michael Farmer, Oskar Lewnowski and David Lilley, asked investors in its metals fund to approve an amendment that would require 45 days notice before money can be withdrawn, according to a copy of a Jan. 31 letter from the firm. Previously, investors could redeem at the end of each quarter with 15 days' notice.
The change will mean that investors have to send redemption notices to Red Kite by Feb. 15 to get their money back at the end of the first quarter, the letter explained.
"Given the current size of the fund we believe that to maintain efficient operation it is necessary to increase the withdrawal notice period," the firm said.
Hedge funds sometimes extend redemption notice periods if they're expecting large investor withdrawals. By getting more advanced notice, funds have more time to sell positions and return investors' money in an orderly fashion.
It's not clear whether any Red Kite investors want to redeem. A representative at the firm's New York office declined to comment and said Lewnowski wasn't available to comment.
Red Kite has made millions of dollars betting on the price of metals such as copper since it was founded in January 2005. Last year, returns generated by the firm's Compass fund topped 90%.
However, after hitting highs in December, copper prices have slumped more than 20%. Copper for March delivery traded as high as $3.29 a pound intraday in December, then fell as low as $2.48 in January. It's now trading around $2.53 a pound.
Red Kite lost as much as 15% in January, according to three people familiar with the firm's performance. Losses exceeded 2% in December, according to a performance update from Red Kite's Compass fund that was obtained by MarketWatch.
Red Kite partner Lilley told reporters at a commodities conference in Shanghai last week that copper prices had fallen further than he'd expected, suggesting it was a good time to buy the metal. End of Story
But if that explains the move of today ??
http://tinyurl.com/yt8lab
Red Kite to extend redemption notice period
High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January
_____________________________________________________________________
Red Kite to extend redemption notice period
High-flying, $1 bln metals trading hedge fund lost as much as 15% in January
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:13 PM ET Feb 1, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Red Kite Management, a $1 billion metals trading hedge fund, wants to extend the notice period for investor redemptions after losses of as much as 15% in January, according to documents obtained by MarketWatch and people familiar with the firm's performance.
Red Kite, run by Michael Farmer, Oskar Lewnowski and David Lilley, asked investors in its metals fund to approve an amendment that would require 45 days notice before money can be withdrawn, according to a copy of a Jan. 31 letter from the firm. Previously, investors could redeem at the end of each quarter with 15 days' notice.
The change will mean that investors have to send redemption notices to Red Kite by Feb. 15 to get their money back at the end of the first quarter, the letter explained.
"Given the current size of the fund we believe that to maintain efficient operation it is necessary to increase the withdrawal notice period," the firm said.
Hedge funds sometimes extend redemption notice periods if they're expecting large investor withdrawals. By getting more advanced notice, funds have more time to sell positions and return investors' money in an orderly fashion.
It's not clear whether any Red Kite investors want to redeem. A representative at the firm's New York office declined to comment and said Lewnowski wasn't available to comment.
Red Kite has made millions of dollars betting on the price of metals such as copper since it was founded in January 2005. Last year, returns generated by the firm's Compass fund topped 90%.
However, after hitting highs in December, copper prices have slumped more than 20%. Copper for March delivery traded as high as $3.29 a pound intraday in December, then fell as low as $2.48 in January. It's now trading around $2.53 a pound.
Red Kite lost as much as 15% in January, according to three people familiar with the firm's performance. Losses exceeded 2% in December, according to a performance update from Red Kite's Compass fund that was obtained by MarketWatch.
Red Kite partner Lilley told reporters at a commodities conference in Shanghai last week that copper prices had fallen further than he'd expected, suggesting it was a good time to buy the metal. End of Story
So maybe the boys smell the blood in the water and want to bring the [red] kite down to ride back up themselves? Red Kite would be a fraction of the size of Amaranth, if memory serves.
helio,on my hourly charts i draw gann angles down off the 12/28 and 1/3 highs and the lows today caught those angles and bounced as expected. also i use a simple 89 hour moving average on these hourly charts and its @137.35. so that too should be support. the market is above the up angles from the low. and lastly i watch the structure of this decline and so far not enough info to draw conclusions, but judging by the fear you are exhibiting, i would say the correction is serving its purpose. this is a long term bull market. buy weakness, not sell it! i have been trading since 79 and fell that i am fairly experienced, so i will wait out this decline. we are not Dover Sole on the hourlies. so i think more pain, but it could end by next week. dharma
Got GOLD and SILVER ?????? $245,000,000,000 .. !!!!
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration will ask for another $100 billion for military and diplomatic operations in Iraq and Afghanistan this year and seek $145 billion for 2008, a senior administration official said Friday.....
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration will ask for another $100 billion for military and diplomatic operations in Iraq and Afghanistan this year and seek $145 billion for 2008, a senior administration official said Friday.....
...
QUOTE(The CoinGuy @ Feb 3 2007, 04:32 PM)
"The Wall of Worry Phase"
,The CoinGuy
Good to See You Posting TCG!
Gold priced in Yen already challanging multi-decade highs. This is due to attract more Japanese savings as the value of their paper continues to weaken against the currency of kings..
sure looks like Uncle Buck is ready to give it up... 
QUOTE(hedonicprocto @ Feb 2 2007, 01:12 AM)
QUOTE(dharma @ Feb 1 2007, 03:27 PM)
142.5 major resistance was hit today and the market backed off. also could have finished 5 waves from the oct low. think we correct here for a bit. dharma
I am worried about this being some ABC X ABC thingee Dharma, just finished the latter B: if so watch out below> if we drop fast, not good
I'm inclined to agree with Dharma.
It looks like wave 1 of 3 completed. A week or so of pullback in a small 2nd wave should set the stage for a powerful wave 3 of 3.
Looking for some opinions on Kinross. There seems to be a lot of analysts pushing K.TO and I am curious why? Is it just that it is now a larger company. My concern is that it has diversified itself outside of North America. Specifically it now has mines in 2 of the scariest regions - Russia and South Africa.
Also what about little companies like GGG.TO (Glencairn). Wait until the HUI pops over 390 first?
Also what about little companies like GGG.TO (Glencairn). Wait until the HUI pops over 390 first?
Thank you Realist, just doing a drive-by...
Watch the channel re-test on the $USD in the 60min time frame for clues to ST direction...If it fails, the $HUI will head higher now after a possible bottoming early in the week. Possibly as soon as tomorrow. In the MT, I'm looking for a constant chop to the upside with 2-3 day arb and rotations drama mixed in throughout the rest of this month. The longer term, I'll comment on in May.
Until then...
Best Regards,
The CoinGuy
Watch the channel re-test on the $USD in the 60min time frame for clues to ST direction...If it fails, the $HUI will head higher now after a possible bottoming early in the week. Possibly as soon as tomorrow. In the MT, I'm looking for a constant chop to the upside with 2-3 day arb and rotations drama mixed in throughout the rest of this month. The longer term, I'll comment on in May.
Until then...
Best Regards,
The CoinGuy
Thanks Bearvest and Dharma:
question though: how would you know that count is wrong and begin to favour this being some kind of C down as I speculated? Are their any clear tell tales to watch for?
I am worried about this being some ABC X ABC thingee Dharma, just finished the latter B: if so watch out below> if we drop fast, not good
I'm inclined to agree with Dharma.
It looks like wave 1 of 3 completed. A week or so of pullback in a small 2nd wave should set the stage for a powerful wave 3 of 3.
question though: how would you know that count is wrong and begin to favour this being some kind of C down as I speculated? Are their any clear tell tales to watch for?
QUOTE(bearvest @ Feb 4 2007, 02:13 PM)
QUOTE(hedonicprocto @ Feb 2 2007, 01:12 AM)
QUOTE(dharma @ Feb 1 2007, 03:27 PM)
142.5 major resistance was hit today and the market backed off. also could have finished 5 waves from the oct low. think we correct here for a bit. dharma
I am worried about this being some ABC X ABC thingee Dharma, just finished the latter B: if so watch out below> if we drop fast, not good
I'm inclined to agree with Dharma.
It looks like wave 1 of 3 completed. A week or so of pullback in a small 2nd wave should set the stage for a powerful wave 3 of 3.
QUOTE(realist @ Feb 4 2007, 08:40 AM)
Gold priced in Yen already challanging multi-decade highs. This is due to attract more Japanese savings as the value of their paper continues to weaken against the currency of kings..
Further to that, it appears that there is speculation that a GLD will be created in Japan now. India is launching a similiar ETF product as well. I think we are on the verge of some serious upside here very soon imo...
Tokyo bourse to offer ETFs linked to prices of precious metals - report
Published on : Sun, 04 Feb 2007 13:42
TOKYO (AFX) - The Tokyo Stock Exchange is considering listing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the prices of gold, silver and other precious metals using know-how it will obtain from the New York Stock Exchange, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported.
The NYSE will provide the TSE with expertise on how to manage the funds as part of the broad business partnership the two bourses concluded last week, it said.
http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/04200717418.htm
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