My bullish bias says RGLD goes on to fulfill $59 PnF potential, but my only fear is that stocks just saw the high of the year with the Chinese one day meltdown.

I'd prefer to see gold stocks move up to a May high.

RGLD
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1172722181.png

So, even though I'd likely remain bullish, I'm feeling a little uneasy at the moment.

Blame it on SMSC and Mark Cook
http://www.markdcook.com/index.cfm?page=Co...y-10:-2/23/2007

GOLD:

Right now, I'm still a bull.

Overlap of 655.50, and I'm a scared bull--but not a bear.

The rally off the October lows may take the form of a 1/2 i/ii if we overlap.

I can't see a corrective pattern on the charts. It's textbook 5 waves to the December high and 3 waves down to the January lows.

So far, this decline looks like wave ii in the 3rd wave--sharp, short and a "fooler" in the expectation that we don't overlap 655.50.

If my wave ii of 3 count is correct, you'll never get a chance to load up on a decline to position for wave iii of 3. Because we've already been there and done that.

ok, we now have hourly divergences on xau/hui. and hui has not made a lower low and xau has. so i am getting a buy signal!
bv, every way i turn the gold/xau/hui charts the count i come up w/is the bullish one, ie 1s and 2s. i think if i am correct and the lows are in, we will find out shortly. dharma

Goober, always a pleasure.

Best,

TCG

...poof...

fib cluster's here

336.12 is 50% of the 401.69-270.54 range
334.31 is the 50% of the 632.58 - 306.03 range.
329.16 is the 38% retrace from 362.53 - 274.72

also the Oct 4th low at 274.12 to the Nov 9 th high @ 341.31 was followed by 38% fib retracement to Nove 17 th lows @ 312.11.....

looks like we are echoing that correction here and now.

IVN.to had someone buying big yesterday..OCT 26 close is 12.55 on 8.6M and the test on Dec 5th close at 12.71 on 5.6M.....so there are price and volume points for Ivanhoe

if your not the shark your most likely chum.....

Three nice tails 330 area HUI level. That holds no problem. Worst case I think 310-320.

Yeah, nice support there.

Eventually the gold stocks will start to follow gold, not the dow.

Nice. Somebody just smacked silver with a lead pipe.

XAU Monthly
[attachmentid=78217]

XAU Weekly
[attachmentid=78218]

XAU Daily
[attachmentid=78219]

XAU/GOLD Daily
[attachmentid=78221]

Just looking for the same old boring April/May XAU bottom around 125-110 at the XAU 200 week MA. Then a run up into XAU 230-250 in early 2008.

after the full moon, i expect the pressure will be off. although, as i posted above i do think the lows are in. dharma

There was an exodus out of enrgy awhile back. Notice how the energy sector is holding up right now. This is sector rotation back into the black gold space.

DPTR...this going to be a 2B reversal ( Vic Sperandeo). All the shorts who piled on when we broke the swing low are OTM and look like they are covering here.

We've been topping into the full moon. That is this weekend. What lows are you talking about? Dates. You don't mean the early January lows do you? I can see Silver down to 12.25 or so if we don't hold right here but I have a hard time seeing Gold under 625.

HUI:

The count was textbook until we began to get sloppy in March. And I still can't get a count for the rally off the January lows.

So I'm simply falling back on pure vanilla t.a. (as Meta once described it).

We're in an ascending triangle. If we break out, the measured move is 450-60.

There is both trendline and horizontal support at 325.

If we violate it, I'll sell my winners and write some covered calls on GG.

I'm not eager to see this market shake me out.

And remember my adage that " impulses travel with a friend".

The impulse up off the Otcober lows does not necessarily appear to be accompanied by a friend.

i think the lows of this move may have occured, although i see gold is down another $4 tonight. i dont think that if these lows are taken out , i dont think we go as low as you state above, but i have been wrong before and i .......... dharma

GOLD:

Overlap of 655.50 leaves a corrective 3 wave pattern on the charts.

SMSC; you do fine work!

I'll second that.

Energy as in gas pipes

ETE
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1172813588.png

I agree. I have a small position in CNQ.

I'm more bullish on the battered-down services sector. My play is CFW.TO.

It has very long-term bullish divergence on MACD, a short term and intermediate term bullish falling wedge, and an apparent triple bottom.

Just wanted to note that I mentioned IVAN the other day not to be confused with IVN Where IVN is established and expanding doing gold and copper, IVAN is working on heavy oil extraction esp. from oil sands.

Seems the China crash was opportunity to BD Silver through 14.

But the Silver triangle is getting narrower, with a good support around 12.8-13, and most smallcaps had barely moved as Silver went from 13 to 14.

A small & short shakeout IMO, as it's not time yet for the deflation bogeyman.

Faber interview on Asian markets: in the last seconds he states his opinion that the U.S. will expropriate gold.

Rogers interview on recession and possible Chinese slowdown, not selling commodities.

It should have caused a revolution the first time. It surely won't this time. But what does it say about the people making the laws when the only honest money is outlawed?

SLV must have funds puking again. I'd like to see today turn out to be some preliminary support like back on 12/18/06.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1172853336.png

Yikes .. It's that time for me. Nervous and totally unsure, thinking of lightening up while I have a chance. So, I'm at the point where I usually fade my emotions. In the past this has been what I have used to keep me fully in the game.

I assume this morning we got the "overlap" BV was warning about.

Well, I'm fading myself. I feel like pulling the eject lever, so I just added some TRE.

I hear ya, I'm just wondering if they have inflicted enough pain on us. It just doesn't feel like it ; yet.

Poor silver being brutalized. -$0.76.

Just to get it recorded on the thread ..

MARKET IS OPEN
(Will close in 1 hr. 26 mins.)
Metals

GOLD
03/02/2007
12:05
646.80
647.50
-16.40
-2.47%
644.60
655.10

SILVER
03/02/2007
12:05
12.90
12.95
-0.68
-5.01%
12.80
13.35

PLATINUM
03/02/2007
12:05
1198.00
1202.00
-35.00
-2.84%
1195.00
1226.00

PALLADIUM
03/02/2007
12:05
341.00
346.00
-5.00
-1.45%
336.00
351.00

Looks like we're closing in on BV's HUI 325 line in the sand.

And there we go. HUI 324.92 -9.43.

HUI 323.86.

Lines in the sand:

Hui below 325, XAU below 135, and Gold below 655.50.

I'm outa here.

A gold bearish chart? All a question of time frame, I guess.

Crapvision is about to air a segment on Golds' dumping. Very negative tone to it.

Maybe portends the end of the plunge ??

Time to step up if you believe in the bull, with an exit strategy of course. Just in case belief turns out to be built on delusion.

we are leaving the denial stage...
I see a bottom somewhere between here and 270 HUI

This selling feels more like September of '06, which setup the Oct 4 th low point. Sure is hard to keep my hands off the buy key. Just started to nibble at some kibble.... look at the HUI weekly candle....its a wide range bar, its a bearish engulfing candle, its still above the long term upsloping trendline..

Now go back and look at all similar candle patterns ( red WRB's) from Feb 2006 until this week. rallies start AFTER these types of nasty wipeouts. the long term trend is still intact IMO. Need to see the volatilty dry up / doji or hammer candle with a tail to test out the Jan lows.

the top I was looking for in March came earlier than expected and at a lower price point. My regret is not feeding more stock into the Feb 26 top....plus executing a few buys in some laggards...smile...all the selling that is going on now is simply selling into accumulation.



>>>>>>>>>>>
DPTR pattern busted look for the gap to get tested out.
>>>>>>>>>>>

interesting chart posted up the other week..... very astute assessment.

Baby with the bathwater.

yes, nice call cg!
hey tfh, how are ya?! being a gold trader has never been easy! dharma

Up comes Frazier! Up comes Frazier! Up comes Frazier!

HUI crosses Rubicon, back above line in sand at 325.

Poked its head out and ran back down the burrow.

Commercials.

My grip is in a spasm...

Hey CoinGuy! I've been missing your posts as I was away traveling to and fro, mostly fro.

My schedule will continue to be a bit busy, but I always attempt to check in with this thread for the many fine posts and especially to get a glimpse of any of yours. I see that the very astute anjing bau posted a HUI chart that has your signature. Absolutely a great chart and exceptional perspective! Nice call CG!

A short ramble on my current take:

Agree w/ Sinclair that the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade pertaining to its impact on Gold is way over-emphasized as major currencies/bonds are the main players such as Swiss Frank (Gold Bullish), Yen (Switched out of a few $Canadian/$Australian into $Swiss Franc/$Yen in Dec as a small hedge), etc.

Probable low: Titanic volume on the major indexes sell-off NYSE, NASDAQ, etc / huge volume in golds coincident with lows in the past, NEM, GLD , etc. CRB holding up extremely well.

I think the important story not being widely discussed is the sub-prime mortgage problem spreading/impacting the stock market/economy and emphasizing the need for the Fed to ease this summer. Combined, both are just too big to ignore. That puts the Fed in a corner regardless of inflation pressures. That is what the fed funds futures market is telling us, that the odds of a rate cut have dramatically increased from improbable to very probable within the next several months this summer. I wager the market will soon shift its focus/concern to this ripple effect on the financial markets forcing the Fed's hand. In the mean time, expect the usual tough on inflation "to support the dollar/treasuries" talk out of one side while the money pump continues out of the other side of the mouth.

I've posted a monthly chart several times in the past showing the 30-year T-bond:3-month T-bill yield spread ratio and its relationship to gold, HUI, copper, etc. My view is that when "support the economy/housing" rate cuts begin in the summer, the inverted yield curve will continue reversing to positive as the long rates rise from the inflation/financial turbulence/FCB diversification. Gold will continue rising in all currencies as FCBs devalue attempting to continue to support/arrest the slide in the $USD.

The Summer Fed re-inflation will be ultra bullsih for gold, bearish for the $USD.

As for the here-and-now, this week will probably be the bottom looking at my hourly S&P charts.
60-minutes Inflation:Deflation charts put in a nice bounce after today's big sell-off in gold. Expect a retest on lower volume within a couple days. I'm fully long here but then again with a long term perspective I'm comfortable holding through the inevitable minor corrections.

As for the panicked gold investors ready to jump out the window, Mr. Swiss Franc replies, "Hold on to them horses and BUY the dips, goobers!"

As for the here-after, the pretty table dancer replied "Yes, I do believe in it, and I winked "then you know what I'm here-after."

Knock, Knock, Knock . . .

Who's there?

Ezra . . .

Ezra who?

Ezra NoHope for us gold bugs?

Uh, welp looks like everyone is out enjoying the afternoon/evening.

I've had some time to spend reviewing the charts.
We're approaching an XAU:GOLD buy level and wanted to share this one:

NIce chart and thanks for sharing that!

Thank you hedonic.

I believe we're close, this week is the low.

goobsout