The HUI index was basically flat for the quarterly close. The March 5 low had a good secondary test with high close on March 14. Behind that we had a lot of supply come in on Feb. 27.

It appears we may be pushing higher even if we are stuck right in the middle of last quarters high and low. On my chart a line at 350 says the pigmen have been able to hold the HUI down since July 2006 with 3 thrusts above that line that got sold off. There is coming a day when 350 will get retested as support. As of now it's a meandering resistance area. The more we absorb into the 350 area and the selling gets shallower the more we get closer to that day.

Until then we know the areas that are getting bought and those that are getting sold.

If we close the next quarter near 350 then I believe we will be close to seeing it break and become support.

HUI
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175389001.png

Steel XME had two fantastic quarterly closings. Unfortunetly HUI didn't tag along.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175392250.png

ARU.TO

If you can trade Canadian stocks, I'm ultra-bullish on this stock.

I mentioned it briefly last month, I believe.

It's been beaten down. But MACD has double bullish divergence with price lows.

Now it appears to have broken up out of a triple bottom barrier triangle.

It put on a very bullish candlestick pattern. I'm no expert here, but it looks like 3 white knights to me. And that's wave 1. So we should see 2 more waves that are $8.00 or more in length upward following 2 corrections.

Last week's rally retraced about 38%. So we may be due to correct.

Assuming a counter-trend move, now, of 38 to 62%, it won't fill the gap for correction # 1 or wave 2. That should leave a bullish island reversal, or a breakaway gap. Thus, I anticipate bullish patterns to form on corrections, consistent with ultimate wave 3 patterns.

Right now, I'm looking for a back-test of the trendline on correction #1, which i believe will be wave 2, an abc pattern. Anywhere in the gap, or at the gap itself seems to be a reasonable point of entry. The gap is huge, running from 26.39 to 27.66.

If wave 1 was 8 points and assuming that the next 2 impulses will be at least 8 points each, we should ultimately reach the measured move of a full retracement to $43.00 or exceed it.

Sy Harding comments:

"Although gold bullion is up, the XAU Index of Gold Mining Stocks, which usually leads the bullion in both directions, is down 3.5% for the year so far." http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html

the Decennial pattern. The 7 th year provides a great entry point later in the year. Sometimes the buy point is pushed out into the first Q of the 8 th year.

This year is looking good for a late year low in the markets. the move off the March 2003 lows is statistically long in the tooth in terms of duration and in price appreciation. They are now beginning the process of a correction of that entire move. Historical analysis of corrections suggests anywhere from 3 -18 months as the time frame for the correction to play out.

place your bets....the croupier is waiting.

BV; yes, ARU is a bucking bronco: shook me off a while back. Hope your scenario lets me back on her

Gold/Dollar:

Here's one man's commentary:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/mar292007.html

imo:

After a short 1 week flag formation, the move up off of the march low is now continuing.

Miners were very strong this morning with gold down, and now with gold rallying to a small gian they are up significantly.

Former laggards CDE and GSS leading the charge.

nak,grs, sa among others look ready to bust out. the consolidation on the hourly xau/hui also looks like it is ready to break out to the upside dharma

AEM up off support
GMO continues it's Jump over resistance and moving higher

If we really start to move here, then just maybe somebody knows the dollar is toast.

FXI china needs to fill gap and power up through resistive areas.
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175542981.png

Euro FXE sitting at resistance
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175543099.png

Look at AEM on friday with the increase in volume and today no follow through to the downside. Today demand is in control even though Friday the sellers were still in control and possible exhausted themselves.

As if we needed [COLOR=red]seven[COLOR=red]reasons for gold to go up

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/economy/di...1518-25_2092808

BV: you still holding out for one more low here?
Volumes are not all that stellar certainly...
but sentiment seems OK for a bullish move here...

HUI 350 again. Someday its going to be support and when that happens, look out above

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175630749.png

GMO continues its launch

yes, we are into resistance again, lets see if the supply has been absorbed and we can move higher. if its now than i look for a may high, if not then a may low. again, the pattern since last may is a big base consolidation for another upleg. this market requires a great deal of patience. dharma

Yen carry trade today

Yen down/stocks up

DBC commodity etf pulls back below it's supply line again, most likely because of energy.

oil to tech.. tech to oil rotation

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175631366.png

You want a close above HUI 352; smacked resistance today.

GFI looking good to go, too....on a relative strength basis.

[quote=hedonicprocto,Apr 3 2007, 02:27 PM]
BV: you still holding out for one more low here?
Volumes are not all that stellar certainly...
but sentiment seems OK for a bullish move here...

I don't know.

I think we're in a huge "C" wave that is incomplete, so we may see challenges of resistance at 152 XAU for b of "C". It could be a flat, in which case after 152, we'd impulse down sharply. It could also be a double zig-zag, so that that the large A and B wave could count as a W and X, and we'd decline thereafter in another 3 wave pattern for Y.

The oscillators for XAU are all bullish, now that PPO has crossed above the zero line.

The XAU:gold ratio chart has turned short term bullish and appears to in a wedge (a reversal) pattern. As there are only 3 touches, not 5, it is incomplete.

My volume indicator dipped from plus 9 Monday to plus 5 Tuesday--some short term bearish divergence. So traders may wish to buy this little dip.

So I think we'll sell off from current short term resistance for a day or two and then break through to major resistance.

GDX:

Keep an eye on the gap from 41.46 t0 41.90.

That's where wave 1 and 5 will be equal --and the intermediate term rally should end.

As for Tuesday--- it's a near perfect 61.8 retracement off the March lows. So we should see some pullback.

Thus, any rally above these levels--even in the context of a small decline from here, supports a more bullish short term count. THe bullish count will be wrong, however, if we overlap 38.79.

This count is bullish, and stands in distinction to XAU, which is bearish.

Historically, XAU has had abc patterns up to HUI's impulses. Thus, one has corrected up while the other has impulsed up

You guys seen this? Pretty much predicts a flattish year. Maybe a November bottom equaling the corrective we saw from December '03 to May '05. 18 months. Could work.

so far so good. Some of the laggards are beginning to reveal themselves as ready to particiate to the upside....

is anyone else looking for a may high?
then some consolidation
then another end of year run!
yes, all boats in the sector are rising. rno gets taken out!
dharma

I have two scenarios....I can't tell which one plays out until we test out the swing high. First off there is a little bit more work do right here in order to have a run at the swing high on the HUI Dharma.

Basically now is the dig your nails in tight time...... with the caveat to always be aware of your failure points.

last few days the market has been saying there are buyers - in size - their hoofprints are visible in many many charts...... Demand has shown up during the seasonal time of strength.

SLW.to is waking up from its slumber...volume is heavy....somebody has taken out the local swing in size just a few minutes ago.

yes, ab i am seeing demand in many of the miners. we may have a pullback short term(hourlies are overbought and diverging) but then i think we try for the resistance again and go through it. dharma

they have been duking it at 666.00 in the gold arena...if the HUI closes at 356.07 it would be up 6.66 on the day......

poetic or ironic...

I can't see any news explaining ABX underperformance? Is it just meeting upward technical resistance. ABA is now hedge free (except on projects) so not sure what is holding it back?

Buy juniors like a drunken sailor

Looks like they are stuffing RGLD at support..

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175716251.png

you mean like this GGL.v or TIM.to

I dunno dharma. If you look at the three year chart of the HUI there has been a major turn on or about May 10th the past three years. I would have been more comfortable with a low today instead of a high. Some folks consider today a breakout over 670 spot Gold. We shall see.

How about:

HUI 390+ sometime in may.
Correction to 350-360 level,
Rally to new highs and eventual HUI 600+ late 07 or early 08.

SIL lost 5.58 per share in 2006 due to hedging.

Wouldve been a small gain, except for the 340 million in hedging losses.

They have a market cap of 825 million.
So they threw away over 25% of the value of the company by hedging. In ONE YEAR.

Wow.

quotes.ino.com is having a decimal problem with the dollar index. I just saw them have it at 8.295 instead of 82.95.

Oh no! The world is coming to an end, lol.

Well not sure, but like your BMD

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175739846.png

G.TO

These are the charts for Goldcorp on the Canadian side.

The daily chart shows a very clear impulse down from the February highs to the March lows.

I have said, repeatedly, that impulses travel with a friend. If an impulse appears, you must look back to see if it's the friend or the original traveller.

The only exception to this is a flat correction--a 3-3-5 pattern.

Looking at the weekly chart, the impulse down looks like it's the original traveller. It appears to be an "a" wave.

Thus after the "b" wave plays out---indicated by the blue lines on the daily-- there should be a second impulse down.

This should complete the bearish, corrective pattern.

EGO:

Shorts got squeezed:

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symb...go&submit=Enter

6.9 days to cover was very high.

Chart:

So far my quarterly quidance for the next three monthly is starting up already

as in SLW
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175749911.png

it's probably a good bet at the moment

My quarterly quidance on PAL is going up to 9.50

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175750085.png

Like I said, buy juniors like a drunken sailor

MRB
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1175750298.png

I wouldn't want to buy on the day after a 6% rally. It was a real short squeeze.

I'd certainly think there'd be some kinda reaction--maybe back to the lower trendline.

But MACD and OBV both look like buying pressure has been building.

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symb...go&submit=Enter

Chart:

In triangles, look for 5 waves not 3.

Hope you guys have a safe long weekend before the pigmen start to sift things out next week.

Might be some battle zones coming up or just up.

Happy Easter Charmin and to all the regulars and irregulars.

Bollinger Bands:

Interesting compression in the BB's for GG and NEM---the instituitional darlings.

Compression shows sideways movement--much like twisting a rubber band.

When the pressure is released, the pent-up tension produces a violent move. BB's don't predict the direction.

Bollinger suggests that a volume indicator such as on balance volume should yield a clue as to the direction.

OBV has a bullish pattern on each chart.

If the Pigmen are buying, watch out for a bullish (and terminal) wave up. On NEM, possibly to the gap above 46 or the recent highs at 48.

Same to you, A.B.

I guess I'm an irregular. I keep trying to to fit Elliott counts into traditional stock market goemetric patterns.

Still trying to drive the round pegs into the round holes like I did when I was 3 years old.

But there are so many pegs, and s-o-o-o-o-o-o many freakin' holes.

Just tryin' to do my best.

The theoretical path to an April - June low which I've been describing for the last year is described/illustrated most succinctly in the Weekly XAU chart. However, the trading range upper limit becomes weaker and weaker as time goes on. So there is weakening sideways/downside pressure from the intermediate term (Weekly) pattern, but opposing and increasing upward pressure from the long term (Monthly) trend. There is no way to be certain that we won't breakup and out of the trading range rather than plunging to my long-forecasted low.

The upshot is that we watch it like a hawk, and if we detect weakness or topping patterns (as in a several weeks ago) we might lighten up. Mayb sell 1/3 or de-margin yourself or something like that.

Also: it appears that the stocks which did well last cycle may not be the ones which do well this cycle, but the ones which did well in 2003 - GSS, maybe CDE, ANO, the SA golds and junk like that. When taking a new position (especially in some Cando junior), I usually start fairly small then set buy stops below at 5% intervals in increasing amounts.

[attachmentid=80949]

Portfolio (cash 10%): Updated daily as they change. Ordered by position size.
TIE,VLO,FCX,MGAFF,CMC,ERS,BMD,AUY,GRZ,GSS,CUP,NTO,CRS,GGB,
GG,AEM,PGDP,GMO,NAK,BLEFF,MRB,CZICF,TRE,GOLD,NXG,EGO,TGB,
AUAYF,DPTR,AZK,RGLD,MYMNF,AUREF,DROOY,UXG,SU,FRO,SLW,EKX,
EVRRF,KBX,ECUXF.

All of the Canadians and some of the other positions have limit buys set at 10-15% under my cost basis.