I'll bet your wondering how HUI weathers any storms brewing. After HUI took back April I have one line on my chart that shows 330 may be one potential low for this quarter. It just happens to be the 200 day moving average now.

If the HUI does pull back that far then watch for some stocks to pull back to support. In that case maybe GSS can pull back above 3.80.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1177978930.png



HUI
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1177978745.png

GG:

It's a bellweather stock.

The chart is neutral, but it it probably has a more bullish than bearish bent.

I'm looking for a bounce, then a decline as the last wave plays out.

Let's see if OBV support, the price lower trendline, the lower MACD trendline, and AROON hold through this.

HUI P&F:

I use the 60 minute chart as it best represents my swing trading strategy.

Note how support according to the blue line and historically resides at 331.24.

More recently support is at 325.36.

Don't ignore that historical support zone. Traders who missed the boat will liquidate longs and shorts there.

The chart shows a clear 3 wave down pattern. Nine boxes in the second last column of o's, 4 boxes up in x's and 10 boxes down in o's.

If waves 1 and 3 of the current impulse down are complete, we should bounce from here by about 4 or 5 boxes, then decline by another 9 boxes.

Bears better get movin' on the downside here soon or else. So far, their failure to provide follow through selling gives more ammo to the bulls to take the ole' yeller higher. If GCM7 can close the pit back over "the line" then were going well over $700 before this move officially ends.

Our forecast is now three months of sideways or declining goldprices or an inversion to new highs
Whichever way for a long term investor it does not matter
Sideways or down is a coming buy
inversion is a sell 30% six months from now

At or very near a low here, imo.

The trend of higher lows will hold.

XAU Weekly

XAU/GOLD Daily

I think this might just be the longest gold stock correction since the gold bull...

Nope. See above.

agree w/you ander, we are in support here. on the hourlies xau/hui Dover Sole w/divergences. expect a bounce @the least. i was looking @the 10th for the low, but now, i think it could come @any time. dharma

10th for the low today or tommorow for a low imo

one scenario:
http://www.megimage.com/easyupload/picstor...05000000035.gif

but i am open to loading up at 270 as well.....

As Gold Falls / Gold Stocks Show Relative Strength / Yet Another BUY ME NOW ALERT
Coin Guy, the summation of indicators I follow agrees with your conclusion. The gold stocks have continued lower compressing into Dover Sole territory significantly increasing the probability of a strong rally from here. Currently, many short term indicators have exceeded the 95% probability level that gold stocks will be higher within 2 weeks. The short-term Up/Down Volume indicator that tracks the XAU for example, just hit a 98.8% probability of another low being put in place. I suspect that today or tomorrow could see the bottom. True to the "Buy the Dips" mantra, I'm in the process of accumulating a few more of my favorites here.

gooberout

I wonder if we have disconnected (again) from the USD - I hope so - my Canadian gold stocks can't take any more of this USD weakness! Hopefully the USD rebounds with gold. Notice that gold and gold stocks have also disconnected from the DOW.

I don't think miners are going anywhere until spot prices improve upon their highs. If shares begin to move and spot prices don't then that would be something.

Longer than Dec '03 through May '05? No way.

HUI:

Be guarded of rising wedges.

We had one last summer, leading to a smackdown into October.

There's a rising wedge, again, on the charts off the October lows.

If 325 is taken out, the downdraft is to 275-280 for a triple bottom.

GOLD and CDE:

Although it may seem distant right now, I believe that $660 is the line in the sand for GOLD.

A breach of that level would--heaven forbid-- invite a short trade.

Frankly, I took profits in my miners a month ago. I'm still holding GG, AEM and CDE. If we bounce, I'll sell call options on my GG's and AEM's, again.

As far as CDE goes, I'm still happy with this stock. I'll add at around 3.75.

If my overall bearish assessment of the PM's is incorrect, that's a very bullish chart for CDE.

HUI:

After the October decline and the very clear impulse up off that low, I was very bullish. I was looking for a huge wave 3 up after the January lows.

I bought into those lows due to the clear 3 wave pattern.

When XAU overlapped, in early March, I became suspect. I exited my winners, early, in late March.

For several weeks, I have distrusted this rally. I felt we were in a big "B" wave.

I was temporarily persuaded off this position in mid April when HUI took out its February highs.

I'm back on the big "B" wave theory. It's a WXY--three waves down, three waves up and now three waves down

Here's the XAU count. We're in the "c' wave of a double zig-zag, and it will be 5 waves down.--so there's likely a lot more downside to go.

Great Gold Chart there BV...

$675 is solid support for june gold right now. If we break this then $660 is a given. If gold breaks $660, then it looks like a trip down to the 200EMA would be likely. The 200 has been a very good area to cover and/or accumulate positions for quite sometime now.

$637 is the current 200EMA. We go any lower than $629 then there could be some larger issues at hand in the form of a powerful rally in the US Peso...

CDE:

As you know, I'm a Canadian.

In Toronto, CDE trades under the symbol CDM.TO.

The chart says it likely has not put in its Bottom. The last wave of the "e" wave is only 3 waves down. It likely requires 5.

But it does not seem to have very farther to go in terms of its correction.

XAU/GOLD got down to .203 yesterday which is an accumulate at the very least. Anything .20 or under is a long term buy/hold area.

gold down xau/hui up. this is a positive sign for the gold market. dont know if the low has occurred, but this is positive. the bounce occurred right on schedule w/the divergences in place and the xau/hui in support. above 142 xau and the low is in. dharma
ps. since the hussman article on gold/xau ratio i too noticed the buy on that ratio.

Looking good!

RBY spec junior looking stronger....

Much improvement here...

Good volume.

the HUI went up to 369 on incresing volume. the pullback to 333 was on decreasing volume. Today the volume expanded by ~28% day/day. yesterdays close or todays open was a good buy. Looking for a little base building in here over the next 2 weeks.

I was originally looking for a test of 401 coming into the May window. Instead the path is a May low. Look what the last May(2005) low led to....

Yeah, and I can't believe we once discussed a May low for NEM

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1178153837.png

DX looks set to bounce...

XAU:

I think it's too early to go back into the water yet.

I'd posted, earlier, a chart showing that Stochastics should bottom, rally above 20, and decline again. It's on that second decline that entry should be considered.

I've suggested that we should see a 5 wave decline to create a "C" wave. So far, we have 3 waves down. If we overlap 140.50 and 141.71, it will leave 3 waves on the chart, as wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1. A 3 wave move followed by a further 3 wave move is corrective.

We need a "smackdown" to end the correction--it's been so long. We need capitulation.

Of course, a rally that overtakes 143 would cast doubt on my short term analysis.

I hope you are wrong on that BV, because I made a theoretically near perfect entry on GDX at 39.14.

Decent smackdown in CDE today.

SLV - there is a support area from 129 to 130.75 on my chart. Below 50 day moving average.

GLD - support line at 66.50 and a bounce off 50 day moving average near 66

GSS support at 4.30 and resistance at 4.80 and it's mid range of that right now

I have stochastics on the bottom on my HUI daily chart.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1178209709.png

This have been a real dog.

CDE is the new GSS.

And GSS is acting more like the old GSS (pre-2004)

Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. said Thursday it will buy junior miners Bolnisi Gold NL and Palmarejo Silver and Gold Corp. in a friendly deal worth $1.1-billion (U.S.) to create the world's leading primary silver producer.

The prize is a major silver project in Chihuahua, Mexico, the world's second-biggest silver producing country. Production at the Palmarejo project, currently under construction, is seen starting in late 2008 at an annual rate of 12 million ounces of silver and 110,000 ounces of gold.

That almost matches Coeur's own 2007 production forecast of 13 million ounces of silver and 110,000 ounces of gold.

personally i stay away from this company dharma

It's my smallest position. I think BV is right that it's bottoming here. A few years from now, anything down here probably will be seen as a gift horse with where silver should head. I like SLW more because it's a royalty company.

Back when I started investing in silver stocks, I bought some SSRI for 6.75. CDE as in the 4-5 area at the time. SSRI up ~500% and CDE down since then.

I've never owned CDE and I dont ever expect that to change.

Of the silver stocks, I like SSRI and SLW, and liked WTZ before it was bought out.

SSRI:

Continually discovers and acquires more silver, every couple months, for many years.

Has made profitable transactions, and gians on its held silver bullion.

Only issues new shares to fund exploration and purchases which are accretive to
shareholders, and increase the share value by more than the dilution.

Has consistently issued new shares near record highs, prior to down moves, essentially selling their stock high, in order to mimize dilution.

Theyre good at exploration, and even better at financing.


SLW:

Continues to make deals to purchase silver at 3.90/ounce. Every time they do I am just amazed that they can sucker someone else into it, but I guess it makes sense, because the other company (not primarily a silver miner) needs up front cash to fund their projects, and essentially gets it by selling future silver to SLW.

Profits for them are a sure thing, as their costs are fixed at 3.90. The share value grows both as soilver rises, and as they add additional contracts.


I see no reason to own any of the other larger silver stocks, as long as these two are around. For years they have outperformed, and they will continue to do so in the future, because they focus on growing shareholder value, while the others mine silver at a loss or small gain, consuming their silver reserves while prices are still relatively low.

anyone have a take on mgn? how about its management? tia dharma

Wheaton continues to build steam.




50% in 2 months.




Embrace hatred, although CDE is despicably rotten

HUI has CDE and HL in it. XAU has PAAS in it.

How much better would these indexes be performing if they instead had SSRI and SLW!

NTO has been in a sideways consolidation from support 4.50 up to 4.90. We'll have to see if today's break holds.

Tomorrow follow thru would be nice.

Hey Guys,

Stop raggin' on CDE.

One day it may be a moonshot.

Reversal right at the bottom channel of the uptrend. Were going higher still on this run...

72-73 would be an area to look to set trailing sell stops to lock in gains..

SSRI

I sold my position in SSRI in early April, before the top.

The negative divergence in MACD wa what concerned me.

Was the April high a small wave 5 or merely wave 1 of black 5?