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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

The action's a bit raggedy today. All Ords +0.3% but the only sector doing well is Materials, +1.9%. There's a fair few red sectors with Consumer Staples and IT sharing bottom place, -0.9%.

The big miners, which have been going sideways for a year, look like they're about to achieve new closing highs. BHP and RIO both +2.6% with the golds up but somewhat less enthusiastic.

In the oils, Woodside +0.9% and Santos -1.7%.

I was up in San Francisco tonight. The price of gas there is between $3.70 and $3.95 a gallon for regular. It looks like a lock for $4 gas there in the next month or two unless something happens that lowers the price.

Yet another record high (the 4th consecutive record high in fact) but very uneven results overall. All Ords +0.5% for the day which was almost entirely on the back of the mining giants. Materials came in top, +2.5% followed by Energy +1% with the rest showing piddly gains. Consumer Staples continued to lead on the downside, -0.7%.

In the miners, RIO, +5.2% screamed through to a record high, but BHP, +3.1%, didn't quite make it. Early days though. The golds improved a tad: Newcrest +0.7%, Lihir +3% with Newmont closing flat.

The major oils doing the bipolar thing: Woodside +2.8% and Santos -2.4%.

Over in Asia, Nikkers doing the jump, +1.6%, Sth Korea +1.1%, Honkers +0.9%.

Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Australian Business Confidence Rises to One-Year High

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's business confidence rebounded to a one-year high in April as miners benefited from record commodity prices and spending rose at retailers.

Rising business confidence may signal faster growth in an economy already in its 16th year of expansion. Asia's appetite for resources has stoked commodity prices and fueled confidence and investment at miners and energy producers. Their expansion has sparked a jobs surge that has boosted consumer spending.

----------------

Australia's April Job Advertisements Increase 3.5%

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's job-vacancy advertisements climbed to a record in April, signaling companies plan to keep hiring workers following the strongest employment growth in 17 years in 2006.

Jobs advertised in major newspapers and on the Internet rose 3.5 percent from March to an average 228,445 a week, seasonally adjusted, according to an Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. report released in Melbourne today.

I'm currently in Wellington New Zealand where 91 Octane is the equivalent of $4.35 a US gallon.

Anything south of $4 looks pretty cheap from here.

Anybody got an explanation for this?

Last week's inventories weren't all that bullish for gasoline so it was surprising that the refiners continued their move up. Friday may have seen a reversal though.

$GASO reversed on Wednesday I think.

Keep an eye on inventories this week. If we continue the build in gasoline, then we could drop quite a bit on the refiners.

That would be potential bullish fuel for the broader markets.

German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Second Month

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- German manufacturing orders unexpectedly increased in March, after rising the most in more than two years the month before, led by goods such as factory machinery.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 2.4 percent from February, when they gained 4.3 percent, the Economy and Technology Ministry said today in Berlin. Economists expected a 0.6 percent drop, the median of 43 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year earlier, orders jumped 9.9 percent.

seems like i read a bunch of articles recently about refininig issues ( a couple of them under maint etc...).

Musical Interlude-

Tall Chick and Short Dude Sing It

Musical Interlude-

Hippo and Dog Sing It

"No one should be surprised by the market's reaction to the Fed going into crisis management mode. The only surprise was the timing. That surprised the crap out of everybody. Here's what Dr. Stool's been saying in the last few issues of Capitalstool about the likely reaction to a Fed move:

The monkeys will do some nervous, anticipatory bottom picking (ever been to the zoo?) leading up to it. Ready, set, bang. Everybody buy! Dr. Stool guesses the market will go up about 10% in two hours when the Fed fires its blank. Then it'll churn and fail, leading to the next big wave down."

- Dr. Stool, 1/2/2001

Musical Interlude-


The Boss Sings It

Doc.

I am trying to search members' posts. but the search function does not seem to work

Unbelievable crap:



How can anyone say the economic outlook is getting better and then later in the paragraph say there won't be any news released that could upset the market?

Barfing.com

Hasn't worked for yonks, Janitor. Doc did pass the problem on to the appropriate ppl but he also said 'don't hold your breath'....

I posted these charts on Friday with a brief commentary about retail heading into the shitter ...looks as though Justin Lahart from the WSJ reads the Stool too, below are excerpts from his column today...






Retail Sales
Suggest Unease
On Main Street
May 7, 2007; Page C1
Lost in the enthusiasm as the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at yet another record last week, a clutch of retailers said sales have been weaker than they'd expected.

Dress Barn and Deb Shops released soft April sales figures. Talbots' sales were weak, too, and the apparel retailer said earnings for its quarter ended May 5 would be sharply lower than what it expected. Its shares tumbled. The bebe stores chain reported sales last quarter that were below Wall Street estimates and lowered its expectations for the current quarter. Sears Holdings was the latest to disappoint, on Friday. And Target disappointed last month.


The bulk of retailers will report April sales on Thursday. If what has happened lately is a harbinger of what is to come, investors better watch out.

But the problem may be due to more than a cold snap and a moveable feast. The average price of gasoline is back above $3 a gallon in the U.S., up from about $2.70 a month ago. That restrains consumers from spending on other things. The housing downturn may also be starting to bite. Alliance Bernstein economist Joe Carson points out that -- in contrast to what was happening during the housing boom -- retail sales are growing at a slower pace than salaries and wages.



If U.S. consumers are getting more cautious about spending, it will matter for more than just retailers. But to judge by the industrials' 7.4% gain since the beginning of April, investors are unconcerned.

They've been choosing to focus on other developments. Many of the companies that have reported first-quarter results so far have topped expectations on the strength of sales outside the U.S. Few retailers can count on that. Most retailers, working on fiscal quarters that end in April, don't report results until this month.

Wall Street might soon find out that Main Street isn't such a happy place.

Welcome to my hometown , Alceringa

ATM money drying up. Taking a second out on that new car equity doesn't go far.

The stock markets exchange floor and the kitchen floors are beginning to show divergence.

Another "canary in the coal mine" from last week was Mastercard's results.....seems to be an indication that consumers have not slowed as "they continue to burn the numbers off their credit cards", only this time the home ATM won't be there for the cash out refi or HELOC and they will be stuck paying off the debt at ultra high CC rates

DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In 3-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 3-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $38.75 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $4.687 Bln
Total submitted: $13.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.22%
Weighted Average: 5.23%
High-rate submitted: 5.23%
Low-rate submitted: 5.17%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.127 Bln
Total submitted: $17.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.13%
Weighted Average: 5.14%
High-rate submitted: 5.14%
Low-rate submitted: 5.09%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $186 Mln
Total submitted: $7.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.24%
Weighted Average: 5.24%
High-rate submitted: 5.24%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Yo, Kiwi...........




What's that TexMex place downtown?

Fajitas Sizzle there....

"Arizona" something...

Beer's cold.

Food and chicks are hot.

What else do we need?

Best guesstimates say from 05' to 06' gold production fell 3% overall. Mergers in miners don't create more output.

Come to Wall Street where the grass is green all the time.

AA making a bid for Alcan.

Both up
AA up 6.5%
AL up 33% 9trading abovw the AA offer)

New market dynamics - in case of take over offer buy the target company and hedge with long position on the acquirer

Doesn't it feel like a perfect setup for a top on Wednesday with the Fed Meeting?

Don't know if this counts, but Ape woman is being interviewed by phone right now. She raised spx target to 1600, and dow to 14k.

I agree madman, the setup is perfect for a wednesday top. Maybe one of those long shadowed doji for foamatthemouth day.

Taking a second on a new car.

CRX going........


L
A
C
I
T
R
E
V

My Dow Jones play has yet to show any signs of life, so in the meantime I will be writing short dated (current expiry) out of the money calls against the position which should provided a little income and more than offset the time value lost by not having this money earning any interest.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

All 3 indices just flipped fingers.
Who's that finger for?

From Bernie Schaeffer's daily e-mail

Sentiment: Pessimism dominates the sentiment backdrop of the telecommunications sector despite its impressive technical uptrend. In fact, Wall Street has turned its back on the components of this sector. Of the 160 analysts ratings on the components of the Telecommunications HOLDRS Trust (TTH – 39.08), less than 31 percent come in at a "buy," while an impressive 10 percent rate them a "sell." This bearish configuration leaves ample room for potential upgrades. What's more, the number of the exchange-traded fund's (ETF's) shares sold short jumped sharply in April, pushing its short-interest ratio even higher. This growing short interest underscores the pessimism that continues to surround the sector.

The option volatility values are going up again, usually as a bear you like to see significant weakness as the market goes higher. Every once in a while it goes up as the market rises indicating increasing anxiety which in the past has set up extreme bearish situations. Not saying it will happen here but it occurred just prior to the 87 crash.

QUOTE

For example: If you currently owe $10,000 on your existing auto loan and your vehicle is worth $15,000 under the Retail Kelley Blue Book/CPI guidelines, we will refinance the original $10,000 loan balance AND loan you an additional $5,000 in cash based on your vehicle’s equity.

Loan

I guess if the movie thing doesn't work out for Starbucks, they can announce the addition of mini-Walmarts to their most popular shops.

As Wndy would say, We have an alltime lifetime high on AAPL.

Confused about where to put your money ? MSN says to rent and buy stocks.

"... forget about buying a home and put your savings into stocks."

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banki....aspx?GT1=10022

MRVL today ... interesting how they can sell off the opening gaps.

That's makes her less bullish than Doc.

STZ breaking out on HUGE volume.
Looking good...

Staying long.

Entered TTM this morning at 18 bucks for a long trade.

North American Dynasty - NAK

Economic cycle all bullied up




Link

I do not effin' believe this.
This institution should be banned from FDIC membership.

I believe Tom Drake...aka 2 cents...will be proven wrong. There are bigger cycles than the Kondraieff and they are hitting now. Tom does lots of other good work in other areas though.

Checking in for a minute.

Rode the bike down to Newport Coast yesterday.

New hyperluxury home construction is going at warp speed, luxury supercars everywhere you look.

Met a 28-year old kid at Starbucks at Crystal Cove yesterday, driving a $160,000 Maserati. He's a CEO of some startup internet video company in Irvine.

I'll have some photos next week, plus an update on the spec homes in my neighborhood and the SouthBay360 project.

By the way, I'll be peeling off some trading longs the next 2 days into the FOMC, as the put/call ratio has plummetted back down to the lows and euphoria is gripping the street.

But some stocks I won't be selling, such as my favorite SLW, now breaking out to new, all-time, lifetime, record highs.

See 'ya guys later, I might check in after the FOMC "words".

What's bigger than Kondratieff cycle? Would it be Hypertiger 300 year+ fiat creation cycle, or Grandsuper Cycle in Elliott Wave terms. I can't phantom bull cycle going for another 10-15 years, but, Tom Drake had proved as bearish types wrong for years.

SLW on a Breakout run ....