http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
Full Version: IDS World Markets Thurs 31st May 07
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
All Ords +1.3% today but even with all that effort it only brings us back into the consolidation zone albeit at the higher end. Property Trusts is way out in front, +3.6% although I point out that is still well below the Feb peak on the daily chart. Healthcare is second in line, +1.9% with Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Utilities up the least, +0.7%.
The big miners are jumping: BHP +2.2%, RIO +1.7% but the golds are not showing so much in the way of gains, up around a percent.
Oils fairly quiet: Woodside +0.6% and Santos +1.4%.
Australian Business Investment Rises 9.1% on Mining
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business investment rose in the first quarter as miners expanded, signaling economic growth may pick up in the world's largest exporter of iron ore and coal.
Capital spending on equipment, buildings and plant climbed 9.1 percent in the three months ended March 31 from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 4 percent gain.
Rising investment may stoke exports and economic growth as Australia expands for a 16th straight year. Unflagging Asian demand, record commodity prices and higher profits are encouraging miners and energy producers to expand production and ease bottlenecks at ports and railways.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business investment rose in the first quarter as miners expanded, signaling economic growth may pick up in the world's largest exporter of iron ore and coal.
Capital spending on equipment, buildings and plant climbed 9.1 percent in the three months ended March 31 from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 4 percent gain.
Rising investment may stoke exports and economic growth as Australia expands for a 16th straight year. Unflagging Asian demand, record commodity prices and higher profits are encouraging miners and energy producers to expand production and ease bottlenecks at ports and railways.
As already reported by Sudaca, our man at the scene 
Peru Stocks Decline Most in 12 Years as Miners Fall
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Peru's main stock index fell the most in 12 years, led by miner Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SA, on concern that Chinese demand for commodities may slow.
The Lima General Index plunged 1522.95, or 7.6 percent, to 18,543.82, the biggest move among markets included in global benchmarks. Earlier it fell as much as 10 percent, the most since Bloomberg began tracking the index in January 1990.
Peru's index, dominated by commodity producers, has given back a quarter of the 77 percent gain it had posted this year to May 10 as copper prices slipped 12 percent from early May. Copper, which has tripled in the past four years partly on a booming Chinese economy, fell for a second day in New York after China's stocks tumbled the most in three months, raising speculation economic growth may slow demand for the metal.
Peru Stocks Decline Most in 12 Years as Miners Fall
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Peru's main stock index fell the most in 12 years, led by miner Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SA, on concern that Chinese demand for commodities may slow.
The Lima General Index plunged 1522.95, or 7.6 percent, to 18,543.82, the biggest move among markets included in global benchmarks. Earlier it fell as much as 10 percent, the most since Bloomberg began tracking the index in January 1990.
Peru's index, dominated by commodity producers, has given back a quarter of the 77 percent gain it had posted this year to May 10 as copper prices slipped 12 percent from early May. Copper, which has tripled in the past four years partly on a booming Chinese economy, fell for a second day in New York after China's stocks tumbled the most in three months, raising speculation economic growth may slow demand for the metal.
Japan's Wages Fall for Fifth Month, Leaving Less for Consumers
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
I'm at the office doing a little late night work and I got hungry so I asked the security guards as to what was open. They said McDonalds so I went over into the drivethrough (the eatin section was closed) and ordered two things off the dollar menu. The person then explained to me that they only have a partial menu for late night. So I asked where the late night menu was.
It was basically all of the expensive stuff. I passed and got a sandwhich at a gas station
McDonalds was actually down today.
It appears that they are attempting to squeeze the late night consumer that doesn't have a lot of choices. There's a microwave in my office so I can do some limited cooking here. McDonalds looks like it is above a pivot-point support line and it would be interesting if it dropped to that trendline.
I noticed that AMD and Intel were both down on the gloomy semiconductor forecast. I'm long Intel but am not currently short AMD (great timing, huh?) though I should be. Intel's Gelsinger gave a presentation at a financial conference yesterday where he skewered AMD with AMD's own benchmarks.
Apple went as high as $119 AH. Better keep a hand on the sell button on the first day of WWDC. There are some rumors that the MacMini might be retired. It's a bit pricey for what it does but I could use one for home. Hopefully they will have a replacement product if they retire the Mini. Maybe a MacCube.
It was basically all of the expensive stuff. I passed and got a sandwhich at a gas station
McDonalds was actually down today.
It appears that they are attempting to squeeze the late night consumer that doesn't have a lot of choices. There's a microwave in my office so I can do some limited cooking here. McDonalds looks like it is above a pivot-point support line and it would be interesting if it dropped to that trendline.
I noticed that AMD and Intel were both down on the gloomy semiconductor forecast. I'm long Intel but am not currently short AMD (great timing, huh?) though I should be. Intel's Gelsinger gave a presentation at a financial conference yesterday where he skewered AMD with AMD's own benchmarks.
Apple went as high as $119 AH. Better keep a hand on the sell button on the first day of WWDC. There are some rumors that the MacMini might be retired. It's a bit pricey for what it does but I could use one for home. Hopefully they will have a replacement product if they retire the Mini. Maybe a MacCube.
The rest of the day was fairly static. All Ords closed +1.1% with Property Trusts doing an extraordinary move, +4.2% (right up to a resistance area). The next highest was IT and Telecoms, +1.7%. Consumer Staples had the least gain, +0.2%.
The Big 2 lost momentum: BHP +1.5% and RIO +1%. Conversely the golds gained traction closing around +1%.
Oils diverged: Woodside -1.6% and Santos +1.5%.
A big day for some of the Asian bourses: South Korea +2.3%, Honkers +1.7%, Nikkers +1.6%, China +1.4%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
India's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Two Decades
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- India's economy grew at the fastest pace in almost 20 years as companies lifted production to meet surging consumer demand.
South Asia's largest economy expanded 9.4 percent in the year ended March 31, the biggest gain since 1989 and more than the government's initial estimate of 9.2 percent, the Central Statistical Organisation said in New Delhi today.
General Motors Corp., Tata Steel Ltd. and other companies are increasing output in India at the quickest pace in a decade to meet soaring demand from a middle class that's swelled to the size of the U.S. population. Economic growth may start to slow after central bank Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy raised interest rates to a five-year high to curb inflation.
Manufacturing gained 12.4 percent in the last quarter, while mining rose 7.1 percent and electricity output climbed 6.9 percent during the period, today's report said.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- India's economy grew at the fastest pace in almost 20 years as companies lifted production to meet surging consumer demand.
South Asia's largest economy expanded 9.4 percent in the year ended March 31, the biggest gain since 1989 and more than the government's initial estimate of 9.2 percent, the Central Statistical Organisation said in New Delhi today.
General Motors Corp., Tata Steel Ltd. and other companies are increasing output in India at the quickest pace in a decade to meet soaring demand from a middle class that's swelled to the size of the U.S. population. Economic growth may start to slow after central bank Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy raised interest rates to a five-year high to curb inflation.
Manufacturing gained 12.4 percent in the last quarter, while mining rose 7.1 percent and electricity output climbed 6.9 percent during the period, today's report said.
U.K. Mortgage Loans Drop as Consumer Credit Reaches Decade-Low
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. mortgage approvals fell and consumer credit dropped to the lowest in a decade in April, a sign higher interest rates are deterring Britons from borrowing.
Lenders granted 107,000 loans for house purchases, down from a revised 112,000 in March, the lowest in a year, the Bank of England said today in London. Borrowing by consumers on credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts fell to 498 million pounds ($983 million), the least since March 1997.
The report suggests consumers are shirking from adding to record debts to fuel spending in shops or on homes, whose prices have risen about 10 percent in the past year. Investors are speculating the Bank of England will raise the benchmark interest rate a fifth time from a six-year high of 5.5 percent, which may further cool demand for loans.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. mortgage approvals fell and consumer credit dropped to the lowest in a decade in April, a sign higher interest rates are deterring Britons from borrowing.
Lenders granted 107,000 loans for house purchases, down from a revised 112,000 in March, the lowest in a year, the Bank of England said today in London. Borrowing by consumers on credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts fell to 498 million pounds ($983 million), the least since March 1997.
The report suggests consumers are shirking from adding to record debts to fuel spending in shops or on homes, whose prices have risen about 10 percent in the past year. Investors are speculating the Bank of England will raise the benchmark interest rate a fifth time from a six-year high of 5.5 percent, which may further cool demand for loans.
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 30 2007, 09:16 PM)
Japan's Wages Fall for Fifth Month, Leaving Less for Consumers
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
So in disposable income terms there is inflation !? wacky
Classic dead cat bounce in Shanghai today. Right at the down 10% line.
Total melt up in europe
Utilities going up as if rates have peaked...
Utilities going up as if rates have peaked...
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 30 2007, 10:16 PM)
Japan's Wages Fall for Fifth Month, Leaving Less for Consumers
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
More bullish news for the Nikkei, I can just imagine what bear leaning web boards over there were talking about today.
DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In 14-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $45.95 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.5 Bln
Total submitted: $12.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.25%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $990 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.14%
Weighted Average: 5.14%
High-rate submitted: 5.15%
Low-rate submitted: 5.05%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $3.51 Bln
Total submitted: $18 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.26%
Weighted Average: 5.27%
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $45.95 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.5 Bln
Total submitted: $12.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.25%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $990 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.14%
Weighted Average: 5.14%
High-rate submitted: 5.15%
Low-rate submitted: 5.05%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $3.51 Bln
Total submitted: $18 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.26%
Weighted Average: 5.27%
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*DJ US 1Q GDP Revised To +0.6% Rate From +1.3%
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
designed to save the bond market
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
designed to save the bond market
Economy Has Worst Growth Since 2002
Thursday May 31, 9:09 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy Grows by Just 0.6 Percent in the 1st Quarter, Worst Since Final Quarter of 2002
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the first quarter with growth slowing to a pace of just 0.6 percent. That was the worst three-month showing in over four years.
The new reading on the gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department Thursday, showed that economic growth in the January-through-March quarter was much weaker. Government statisticians slashed by more than half their first estimate of a 1.3 percent growth rate for the quarter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070531/economy.html?.v=3
A few stocks pilling back from their morning enthusiasm. Should be a rather interesting day to say the least being the last day of the month.
Thursday May 31, 9:09 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy Grows by Just 0.6 Percent in the 1st Quarter, Worst Since Final Quarter of 2002
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy nearly stalled in the first quarter with growth slowing to a pace of just 0.6 percent. That was the worst three-month showing in over four years.
The new reading on the gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department Thursday, showed that economic growth in the January-through-March quarter was much weaker. Government statisticians slashed by more than half their first estimate of a 1.3 percent growth rate for the quarter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070531/economy.html?.v=3
A few stocks pilling back from their morning enthusiasm. Should be a rather interesting day to say the least being the last day of the month.
Bond yields not pulling back much. Neither are stocks.
Once again, news is noise.
Once again, news is noise.
*DJ Wachovia Corp Deal Values A.G. Edwards At $89.50 A Share >WB
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
short term tops are usualy made with big financial mergers
My contention for a long time has been that as the US economy weakens, bond yields would be likely to rise. I think that theory will be put to the test this year.
This is shaping up as a hell of a day. I don't remember so much pre-opening volume. Utilities look like big winners today. Goldies pop and gap. Energies straight down. 
Gold futures 666.0
Dow futures 13,666
Dow futures 13,666
QUOTE(shorty @ May 31 2007, 09:30 AM)
Gold futures 666.0
Dow futures 13,666
Dow futures 13,666
maybe, just for kicks, they'll ram the dow UP 500 points this time.
QUOTE(shorty @ May 31 2007, 09:30 AM)
Gold futures 666.0
Dow futures 13,666
Dow futures 13,666
Don't see any 8s'.
DJ Fed Accepts $5.75 Bln In 5-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 5-Day RPs
Total accepted: $5.75 Bln
Total submitted: $25.7 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.031 Bln
Total submitted: $6.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.23%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $8.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.12%
Low-rate submitted: 4.95%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.719 Bln
Total submitted: $10.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.26%
Weighted Average: 5.27%
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Type of transaction: 5-Day RPs
Total accepted: $5.75 Bln
Total submitted: $25.7 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.031 Bln
Total submitted: $6.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.23%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $8.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.12%
Low-rate submitted: 4.95%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.719 Bln
Total submitted: $10.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.26%
Weighted Average: 5.27%
High-rate submitted: 5.27%
Low-rate submitted: 5.2%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
QUOTE(potatohead @ May 31 2007, 05:40 AM)
*DJ US 1Q GDP Revised To +0.6% Rate From +1.3%
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
designed to save the bond market
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
designed to save the bond market
Not working out so well, is it?
OTOH, a 400 or 500 selloff in the Sow would give bonds quite a nice little boost.
BTW, Pimpco's McCulley has made another whiny plea for lower rates with yet another forecast of an economic slowdown. There's nothing sadder than listening to a multimillionaire cry, is there?
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
It appears as though rates don't matter.
As a matter of fact, I can't think of anything that matters!
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 09:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
in the real world what does that mean for the stock market ? we know what happens in the pretend market .... the gov't controls everything as needed.
massage this number pull that number massage this figure increase that one. rinse repeat.
QUOTE(try2win @ May 31 2007, 07:04 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 09:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
in the real world what does that mean for the stock market ? we know what happens in the pretend market .... the gov't controls everything as needed.
massage this number pull that number massage this figure increase that one. rinse repeat.
Rising rates don't mean anything to the stock market.
The stock market is only allowed to go up!
Anything else, would be unpatriotic.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 08:25 AM)
My contention for a long time has been that as the US economy weakens, bond yields would be likely to rise. I think that theory will be put to the test this year.
My explanation would be as the US economy weakens we will import less thus exporting less FRNs. The foreign CBs would buy less US bonds deceasing demand thus driving interest rates UP
Yen drops to LoC lows on weak U.S. GDP:
Pigmen carrytraders in paradise.
Pigmen carrytraders in paradise.
Wow, Spooz is going to make a new ATH closing with GDP growth melting down the crapper like in the early double 0's.
Do not forget they could pull the stock market back to get a bid for bonds...
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
ZB just cracked last week's lows. Bond traders can be so selfish -- haven't they thought about what this might do to the stock market rally?
QUOTE(Benny Hoo Hoo @ May 31 2007, 10:03 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
It appears as though rates don't matter.
As a matter of fact, I can't think of anything that matters!
Just liquidity, and cycles. That's it.
QUOTE(cwd @ May 31 2007, 10:08 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 08:25 AM)
My contention for a long time has been that as the US economy weakens, bond yields would be likely to rise. I think that theory will be put to the test this year.
My explanation would be as the US economy weakens we will import less thus exporting less FRNs. The foreign CBs would buy less US bonds deceasing demand thus driving interest rates UP
You got d'zacklies my good sir!
The Canadian economy rose a greater-than-expected 3.7 per cent in the first quarter, the fastest pace of growth in more than a year, buoyed by the energy sector.
Globe and Mail
Probably the largest divergence in economic performance ever.
Globe and Mail
Probably the largest divergence in economic performance ever.
QUOTE(4shzl @ May 31 2007, 10:14 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
ZB just cracked last week's lows. Bond traders can be so selfish -- haven't they thought about what this might do to the stock market rally?
Might just give it a little pause. Historically, bond yields and stock prices have often risen together. There's no real correlation either way. Sometimes they correlate directly, and sometimes inversely.
QUOTE(cwd @ May 31 2007, 07:08 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 08:25 AM)
My contention for a long time has been that as the US economy weakens, bond yields would be likely to rise. I think that theory will be put to the test this year.
My explanation would be as the US economy weakens we will import less thus exporting less FRNs. The foreign CBs would buy less US bonds deceasing demand thus driving interest rates UP
Excellente!
Very good point.
Loonie now about 6 cents from parity with the clownbuck. Parabolic rise since mid March.
Gonna be an expensive summer for us Yanks up there.
Gonna be an expensive summer for us Yanks up there.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:25 AM)
QUOTE(4shzl @ May 31 2007, 10:14 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:00 AM)
10 year yield right on the cusp of a humongous breakout.
ZB just cracked last week's lows. Bond traders can be so selfish -- haven't they thought about what this might do to the stock market rally?
Might just give it a little pause. Historically, bond yields and stock prices have often risen together. There's no real correlation either way. Sometimes they correlate directly, and sometimes inversely.
Historically, OK. But in today's cheap-money, finance-based economy, higher rates should be very bad news -- especially for the bag-holders trying to unload REO collateral.
Yeah, bad for the economy. Whether it's bad for the market or not depends on the carry trade. If they can keep pumping out the liquidity, and FCBs keep buying GSE paper, the "economy" would be more or less irrelevant.
No sign of liquidity drying up in the ABCP market, where most of this crap manifests itself. My guess is that if long rates rise and short rates stay low, there will be no impedance to liquidity flowing into stocks at all, regardless of how bad the economic outlook becomes. Case in point- homebuilders rallying like mad over the past 6 weeks. Insane, but not surprising.
No sign of liquidity drying up in the ABCP market, where most of this crap manifests itself. My guess is that if long rates rise and short rates stay low, there will be no impedance to liquidity flowing into stocks at all, regardless of how bad the economic outlook becomes. Case in point- homebuilders rallying like mad over the past 6 weeks. Insane, but not surprising.
QUOTE(DrStool @ May 31 2007, 07:44 AM)
Yeah, bad for the economy. Whether it's bad for the market or not depends on the carry trade. If they can keep pumping out the liquidity, and FCBs keep buying GSE paper, the "economy" would be more or less irrelevant.
No sign of liquidity drying up in the ABCP market, where most of this crap manifests itself. My guess is that if long rates rise and short rates stay low, there will be no impedance to liquidity flowing into stocks at all, regardless of how bad the economic outlook becomes. Case in point- homebuilders rallying like mad over the past 6 weeks. Insane, but not surprising.
No sign of liquidity drying up in the ABCP market, where most of this crap manifests itself. My guess is that if long rates rise and short rates stay low, there will be no impedance to liquidity flowing into stocks at all, regardless of how bad the economic outlook becomes. Case in point- homebuilders rallying like mad over the past 6 weeks. Insane, but not surprising.
'the "economy" would be more or less irrelevant.'
What do you mean would be?
It is already irrelevant.
You gotta hand it to these guys.
They've created a system that is able to feed upon itself.
Look at the red line (gdp growth) vs the trailing 1 year returns
http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seeking...themarket.0.jpg[/img]
source: http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/18883
"- The Term Premium has done a wonderful job predicting lousy markets
- When real GDP growth is above 1%, the market tends to do well.
- Earnings fall quickly when the economy heads south"
http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seeking...themarket.0.jpg[/img]
source: http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/18883
"- The Term Premium has done a wonderful job predicting lousy markets
- When real GDP growth is above 1%, the market tends to do well.
- Earnings fall quickly when the economy heads south"
whats up with aav today ?
i dont own it yet .. buy the dip ?
i dont own it yet .. buy the dip ?
oh i think AAV just went ex div
QUOTE(Jetlag @ May 31 2007, 04:43 AM)
QUOTE(aussiebear @ May 30 2007, 09:16 PM)
Japan's Wages Fall for Fifth Month, Leaving Less for Consumers
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wages unexpectedly fell in April, a fifth month of declines that may hamper a recovery in consumer spending.
Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, declined 0.7 percent, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.1 percent increase.
So in disposable income terms there is inflation !? wacky
Participating in this epidemic of economic Schizophrenia is American Express..Im sure you've seen their ad on Krapvision....A young man anonounces his acceptance of the ad's message....that if you spend so much AExpress will salt away a percentage of the expenditure in the form of ....Look out now!--Savings!!!--
Everytime you spend you save, and 'miracle of miracles' you are inaugerated into, not only the fraternity/sorority of Spenders, but are simultaneously given membership into that slum of a club:Savers.
You get it? ....I spend I save I spend I save, and like a jackhammer this message is pounded into my brain until I see myself being sucked into a merry-go-round Virtuous viscious circle.....
beardrech
As a self-appointed nominee for Jack Horner poster boy, am i not entitled to sit in a corner this year and pull plums out of my ass? Or what...
Unless I am reading the chart incorrectly, it looks as though GDP went to just about 0% sometime in 1995 and yet the 1 year trailing earnings were still quite elevated.
Unfortunately, for the bears, as I remember it the conditions in 1995 were similar to what they are today. I don't know that near 0% GDP today is going to translate into lower earnings - at least I am not willing to bet on it.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.