I noted that the last decline in SLV from the April highs ground back to March lows, unlike distribution that showed up about every three months with one felled swoop. The thought that comes to mind is it a change of behavior and setup to launch. 127 to 129 area was marked on the charts for obvious support areas. Today it appears we have broken a supply line from the April highs.
You will recall the swift declines bottoming:
June 2006
Sept. 2006
Dec. 2006
March 2007
June 2007 acts like one.
What can one say but,
IT IS WHAT IT IS.
You all provide very good insight, so I'll leave up to you to carry us home through another month. By the way, the Dow is almost home as it arrives very close to it's 90% PnF potential at 13,680 today. A remaining 10% potential would carry it to 14,400.
Full Version: Monthly Digger - June 2007
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
HUI 
Ignite the rockets:
Ignite the rockets:
XAU
Ditto. Just needs to break on through.
Ditto. Just needs to break on through.
GG
Making a run for it. Here's hoping it makes it over the fence before the guards in the tower shoot it down.
Making a run for it. Here's hoping it makes it over the fence before the guards in the tower shoot it down.
SSRI
So incredibly strong that it's corrected sideways while others have plumetted.
So incredibly strong that it's corrected sideways while others have plumetted.
PAAS
Already over the fence and trying to outrun the dogs.
Already over the fence and trying to outrun the dogs.
NEM
Almost.
Almost.
Goobs,
To answer your question I had to revise my "W" chart from the previous thread a tad...
$HUI - "W" Pattern(Revised) Chart
Gotta catch a ride, see y'all in a few days.
The CoinGuy
To answer your question I had to revise my "W" chart from the previous thread a tad...
$HUI - "W" Pattern(Revised) Chart
Gotta catch a ride, see y'all in a few days.
The CoinGuy
Speaking of W's
29 day stochastic W for the HUI is something to watch as it matches price
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180652810.png
29 day stochastic W for the HUI is something to watch as it matches price
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180652810.png
The lack of a shakeout to some support so far is a change of behavior in this market. If silver bears are done now, I'm gunna suspect the bulls will take control again, even if we consolidate further.
SLV
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180667707.png
SLV
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180667707.png
XAU:
I'd posted that I saw support at around 132.50---and expected a decline to that range within the ending diagonal.
Elliotticians invariably miss bottoms and tops waiting for that last wave.
It's hard to deny the technical signposts of Thursday's rally.
It has never been a good idea in XAU's rallies to wait for an opportune decline to enter, or in declines, to wait for a bounce to cover.
The race goes to the swift.
I'd posted that I saw support at around 132.50---and expected a decline to that range within the ending diagonal.
Elliotticians invariably miss bottoms and tops waiting for that last wave.
It's hard to deny the technical signposts of Thursday's rally.
It has never been a good idea in XAU's rallies to wait for an opportune decline to enter, or in declines, to wait for a bounce to cover.
The race goes to the swift.
XAU:
While the Labelling may be forced, it's fairly clear that this last decline has a very different proflile from the former declines.
From long and slim to short and fat.
Gee! That's kinda like my profile over last 30 years or so.
While the Labelling may be forced, it's fairly clear that this last decline has a very different proflile from the former declines.
From long and slim to short and fat.
Gee! That's kinda like my profile over last 30 years or so.
XAU:
It is a long-held axiom that when the index leads the commodity, that's bullish.
The reason? The index is leveraged to the commodity. Thus the smart money switches from the physical to the leveraged play where gains will be greater.
XAU seems to on the cusp.
The trend off the summer lows of 2006 weakened creating a long period of bullish divergence.
The ratio bottomed in March, and and is on the verge of a breakout north together with a MACD reversal into positive territory.
It is a long-held axiom that when the index leads the commodity, that's bullish.
The reason? The index is leveraged to the commodity. Thus the smart money switches from the physical to the leveraged play where gains will be greater.
XAU seems to on the cusp.
The trend off the summer lows of 2006 weakened creating a long period of bullish divergence.
The ratio bottomed in March, and and is on the verge of a breakout north together with a MACD reversal into positive territory.
My SLV chart has May 17 for a potential swing low labeled.
After several months of having a limit order for Harmony at 10.50 euro I just caved in and bought at 11.10 Euro
Who knows that the final low in july- august is going to be lower then the price today
Who knows that the final low in july- august is going to be lower then the price today
my cycle stuff shows us up into june 18-21. and then down into the mid july low. i am not trading, just holding on. so, none of it matters to me @this point. but after august, i expect the point of recognition to be upon us. dharma
QUOTE(dharma @ Jun 1 2007, 04:44 PM)
my cycle stuff shows us up into june 18-21. and then down into the mid july low. i am not trading, just holding on. so, none of it matters to me @this point. but after august, i expect the point of recognition to be upon us. dharma
I agree completely but I got fresh money coming in from all sides since today is the first day of my retirement and all extralegal pensions have different pay out dates the last being in july and hopefully still in time to buy some yummy canadians
ALMI, miner of nanotube clay breaking out on high volume.
Bullish COT report... whatever that's worth.
Just when you think you know it all, the BULL market roars back.
Nice week for the PM.
You just got to love this market.
Nice week for the PM.
You just got to love this market.
Anyone follow David Bensimon of Polar Pacific? Apparently has some interesting things to say about PM. Apparently he is an Australian.
http://www.polarpacific.com/index.htm
Looking for a link or any data/ information?
Tanks
D-eye...
About all I ran across...
-------------------------------------------------------
Gold watch
Meanwhile, Mr Bensimon believes that gold could gain 10 per cent over the next couple of months, before it begins a sharp decline to US$550 per ounce sometime in November. Gold spot is currently at US$654.80. A 10 per cent rise from the current level would bring the price to about US$720. This implies that the slide would be similar in magnitude to the correction in May and June 2006, except that the latter took place over just one month. Between May and June, gold plunged from a high of US$727 to US$548. The expected 'pronounced downside momentum' would itself contribute to the technical reason to buy gold at US$550, he says.
At that point, the market will be poised for a ''strong acceleration' to a new high. Mr Bensimon expects gold to hit US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. Between 2008 and 2014 are five to six years when gold is expected to more than triple in value from US$800 to US$2,600. 'But it is not ready to resume that sequence until it hits US$550 in November.'
There is a chance, albeit slim, that gold could exceed US$730 shortly. 'But the greater probability is that it will fall back for the next six months. But if the market exceeds US$730, that will be a very significant break of the entire structure of the last 30 years. That has to be respected as an immediate signalling of the continuation of the larger uptrend.'
------------------------------------------------------
In the last paragraph, I'll agree with his conclusions, although, his timeframe differs from mine if there is more downside to be had...
this is the battle of the wills at $666 we are currently experiencing in my opinion. If our current level can be held, I'll continue to lean in the same direction, although, always keeping my finger into the wind to check for direction until I start to see higher highs/higher lows...
I've firmly stepped over the line into the bull's camp as i've mentioned over the last week, and with Thurs and Fri's action I'll not be stepping back over "unless the 300ema" is taken out on Volume in the $HUI.
Best,
TCG
About all I ran across...
-------------------------------------------------------
Gold watch
Meanwhile, Mr Bensimon believes that gold could gain 10 per cent over the next couple of months, before it begins a sharp decline to US$550 per ounce sometime in November. Gold spot is currently at US$654.80. A 10 per cent rise from the current level would bring the price to about US$720. This implies that the slide would be similar in magnitude to the correction in May and June 2006, except that the latter took place over just one month. Between May and June, gold plunged from a high of US$727 to US$548. The expected 'pronounced downside momentum' would itself contribute to the technical reason to buy gold at US$550, he says.
At that point, the market will be poised for a ''strong acceleration' to a new high. Mr Bensimon expects gold to hit US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. Between 2008 and 2014 are five to six years when gold is expected to more than triple in value from US$800 to US$2,600. 'But it is not ready to resume that sequence until it hits US$550 in November.'
There is a chance, albeit slim, that gold could exceed US$730 shortly. 'But the greater probability is that it will fall back for the next six months. But if the market exceeds US$730, that will be a very significant break of the entire structure of the last 30 years. That has to be respected as an immediate signalling of the continuation of the larger uptrend.'
------------------------------------------------------
In the last paragraph, I'll agree with his conclusions, although, his timeframe differs from mine if there is more downside to be had...
this is the battle of the wills at $666 we are currently experiencing in my opinion. If our current level can be held, I'll continue to lean in the same direction, although, always keeping my finger into the wind to check for direction until I start to see higher highs/higher lows...
I've firmly stepped over the line into the bull's camp as i've mentioned over the last week, and with Thurs and Fri's action I'll not be stepping back over "unless the 300ema" is taken out on Volume in the $HUI.
Best,
TCG
Tanks, found another link.
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction...tm?topicId=2652
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction...tm?topicId=2652
QUOTE(The CoinGuy @ Jun 2 2007, 01:42 PM)
D-eye...
About all I ran across...
-------------------------------------------------------
Gold watch
Meanwhile, Mr Bensimon believes that gold could gain 10 per cent over the next couple of months, before it begins a sharp decline to US$550 per ounce sometime in November. Gold spot is currently at US$654.80. A 10 per cent rise from the current level would bring the price to about US$720. This implies that the slide would be similar in magnitude to the correction in May and June 2006, except that the latter took place over just one month. Between May and June, gold plunged from a high of US$727 to US$548. The expected 'pronounced downside momentum' would itself contribute to the technical reason to buy gold at US$550, he says.
At that point, the market will be poised for a ''strong acceleration' to a new high. Mr Bensimon expects gold to hit US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. Between 2008 and 2014 are five to six years when gold is expected to more than triple in value from US$800 to US$2,600. 'But it is not ready to resume that sequence until it hits US$550 in November.'
There is a chance, albeit slim, that gold could exceed US$730 shortly. 'But the greater probability is that it will fall back for the next six months. But if the market exceeds US$730, that will be a very significant break of the entire structure of the last 30 years. That has to be respected as an immediate signalling of the continuation of the larger uptrend.'
------------------------------------------------------
In the last paragraph, I'll agree with his conclusions, although, his timeframe differs from mine if there is more downside to be had...
this is the battle of the wills at $666 we are currently experiencing in my opinion. If our current level can be held, I'll continue to lean in the same direction, although, always keeping my finger into the wind to check for direction until I start to see higher highs/higher lows...
I've firmly stepped over the line into the bull's camp as i've mentioned over the last week, and with Thurs and Fri's action I'll not be stepping back over "unless the 300ema" is taken out on Volume in the $HUI.
Best,
TCG
About all I ran across...
-------------------------------------------------------
Gold watch
Meanwhile, Mr Bensimon believes that gold could gain 10 per cent over the next couple of months, before it begins a sharp decline to US$550 per ounce sometime in November. Gold spot is currently at US$654.80. A 10 per cent rise from the current level would bring the price to about US$720. This implies that the slide would be similar in magnitude to the correction in May and June 2006, except that the latter took place over just one month. Between May and June, gold plunged from a high of US$727 to US$548. The expected 'pronounced downside momentum' would itself contribute to the technical reason to buy gold at US$550, he says.
At that point, the market will be poised for a ''strong acceleration' to a new high. Mr Bensimon expects gold to hit US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. Between 2008 and 2014 are five to six years when gold is expected to more than triple in value from US$800 to US$2,600. 'But it is not ready to resume that sequence until it hits US$550 in November.'
There is a chance, albeit slim, that gold could exceed US$730 shortly. 'But the greater probability is that it will fall back for the next six months. But if the market exceeds US$730, that will be a very significant break of the entire structure of the last 30 years. That has to be respected as an immediate signalling of the continuation of the larger uptrend.'
------------------------------------------------------
In the last paragraph, I'll agree with his conclusions, although, his timeframe differs from mine if there is more downside to be had...
this is the battle of the wills at $666 we are currently experiencing in my opinion. If our current level can be held, I'll continue to lean in the same direction, although, always keeping my finger into the wind to check for direction until I start to see higher highs/higher lows...
I've firmly stepped over the line into the bull's camp as i've mentioned over the last week, and with Thurs and Fri's action I'll not be stepping back over "unless the 300ema" is taken out on Volume in the $HUI.
Best,
TCG
The theme "Almost Home" is because of NEM
MONTHLY Stochastic W forming
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835247.png
and shorts should continue to cover as long as they realize it's over for them
MONTHLY Stochastic W forming
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835247.png
and shorts should continue to cover as long as they realize it's over for them
The theme "Almost Home" is because of GG
Monthly Dover Sole levels can clearly scare some shorts
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835469.png
Monthly Dover Sole levels can clearly scare some shorts
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835469.png
Monthly Dover Sole on GFI and support should scare some shorts to cover
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835681.png
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1180835681.png
Well, the charts were Dover Sole and we have/had a nice bounce. I- myself, will not to get to excited. I think more sideways action to go for a few months. I hope they attack $650 again and fail, again.
the action of the last 2 days, could be a kickoff to a big up move. volumne is there to confirm the possibility. and this am s down move so far is rather short lived! i am looking for weakness to buy some more. dharma
I got another batch of Harmony even half a percent lower then friday
I am stuck though as to what to buy when I have all my old acquaintances at the level I feel confortable
I am stuck though as to what to buy when I have all my old acquaintances at the level I feel confortable
I love it when I am running a day or two days ahead of godmode 
http://www.godmode-trader.de/news/?ida=629415&idc=8
http://www.godmode-trader.de/news/?ida=629415&idc=8
SKI system update, posted on 321gold:
SKI generated a bull market buy signal on May 24, the day of the low (SKI is pretty darn good at that). Prices must continue to rise at this point to avoid generating a sell signal which would indicate a decline to Gold $540. Prices on the USERX (mutual fund used for SKI) but stay above their prices from 92-96 trading days earlier, to avoid generating the sell signal.
Essentially: Buy signal on May 24, sell stop set to prices from 92-96 trading days ago (continually moving as those prices move).
SKI generated a bull market buy signal on May 24, the day of the low (SKI is pretty darn good at that). Prices must continue to rise at this point to avoid generating a sell signal which would indicate a decline to Gold $540. Prices on the USERX (mutual fund used for SKI) but stay above their prices from 92-96 trading days earlier, to avoid generating the sell signal.
Essentially: Buy signal on May 24, sell stop set to prices from 92-96 trading days ago (continually moving as those prices move).
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Jun 1 2007, 12:38 PM)
ALMI, miner of nanotube clay breaking out on high volume.
Anybody check this one lately? Kept on zoomin'. I'd probably sell now if I had been long. But I never picked up any myself.
Flight to quality.
GOOG up 5.7 at this moment.
GOOG up 5.7 at this moment.
Hello All... anyone have any thoughts on CEF lately ? I want to increase my bullion exposure but would like leverage and I can't get that through the ETFs or direct local purchases.
The premium on CEF is now 3.6%
Thanks
Hi CG ..
The premium on CEF is now 3.6%
Thanks
Hi CG ..
Hi Hadj...
Support is at 9.00 on CEF, Resistance at 10.00(just under). Anywhere from here to 9.12 on CEF should be decent enough. I hold this in the long-term accounts, and prefer to buy it at a discount to NAV but I'm seeing solid support come in right under the 9.00 level.
If you're expecting the leverage to be as good in the metals this go around, I'm expecting quite the opposite. Although, with the silver allocation as high as it is in CEF, you'd probably do better than just holding shares in a "gold-only" ETF.
This go-around, I'm under the impression your amount of leverage depends squarely on which area of this sector you're invested in.
You know my detailed choices; a few of those along with the safety of CEF as a core holding is a rather smart way to play what I see coming around the bend.
Good luck buddy...
CG
This gives me an opportunity to post another example of a Bocks Formation...
CEF - Daily Chart
Support is at 9.00 on CEF, Resistance at 10.00(just under). Anywhere from here to 9.12 on CEF should be decent enough. I hold this in the long-term accounts, and prefer to buy it at a discount to NAV but I'm seeing solid support come in right under the 9.00 level.
If you're expecting the leverage to be as good in the metals this go around, I'm expecting quite the opposite. Although, with the silver allocation as high as it is in CEF, you'd probably do better than just holding shares in a "gold-only" ETF.
This go-around, I'm under the impression your amount of leverage depends squarely on which area of this sector you're invested in.
You know my detailed choices; a few of those along with the safety of CEF as a core holding is a rather smart way to play what I see coming around the bend.
Good luck buddy...
CG
This gives me an opportunity to post another example of a Bocks Formation...
CEF - Daily Chart
XAU:
I've been away from the markets for the last 3 trading days.
My wife and I took some time off to visit my son and daughter-in-law in B.C. and attend their "B.C. wedding reception".
XAU looks bullish. I'm looking for an impulse to form on the intra-day charts as a clear ABC is apparent on the daily.
It looks like we're in a prolonged wave 4. As it is languishing in 3 wave moves, it probably is a triangle. We likely still need waves "d" and "e" to complete. It still hasn't reached a full 38.2% correction.
We should see something below 138.16 intra-day. A decline below 137 would exceed the 61.8% retracement and be bearish.
Of course, anything above 142.61 would indicate an impulse up.
The entry trade would come later---in the ensuing abc correction.
I've been away from the markets for the last 3 trading days.
My wife and I took some time off to visit my son and daughter-in-law in B.C. and attend their "B.C. wedding reception".
XAU looks bullish. I'm looking for an impulse to form on the intra-day charts as a clear ABC is apparent on the daily.
It looks like we're in a prolonged wave 4. As it is languishing in 3 wave moves, it probably is a triangle. We likely still need waves "d" and "e" to complete. It still hasn't reached a full 38.2% correction.
We should see something below 138.16 intra-day. A decline below 137 would exceed the 61.8% retracement and be bearish.
Of course, anything above 142.61 would indicate an impulse up.
The entry trade would come later---in the ensuing abc correction.
HUI/Gold ratio:
This is a very detailed chart posted by Salscandle at Trending 123.
He is a very astute technician--and he produces exceedingly comprhensive but very understandable charts.
The opinion expressed is, of course, a work-in progress that summarizes an ongoing period of months of analysis. The chart and the annotations probably took hours to produce.
It's certainly worth several minutes of study.
This is a very detailed chart posted by Salscandle at Trending 123.
He is a very astute technician--and he produces exceedingly comprhensive but very understandable charts.
The opinion expressed is, of course, a work-in progress that summarizes an ongoing period of months of analysis. The chart and the annotations probably took hours to produce.
It's certainly worth several minutes of study.
Rangold:
The price oscillators in most of the miners have hit buy signals over the last several days.
This stock's volume indicator is the only HUI component whose volume oscillator shows a breakout.
It should lead.
The price oscillators in most of the miners have hit buy signals over the last several days.
This stock's volume indicator is the only HUI component whose volume oscillator shows a breakout.
It should lead.
re:CEF .. Thank you gentlemen
Appear to be working off the excess in the shorter time frames just fine...
$HUI - 60min Chart
I'd judge today by tomorrows action.
Best,
The CoinGuy
Gap is filled on Aggie. now in...
$HUI - 60min Chart
I'd judge today by tomorrows action.
Best,
The CoinGuy
Gap is filled on Aggie. now in...
QUOTE(bearvest @ Jun 5 2007, 07:34 PM)
It looks like we're in a prolonged wave 4. As it is languishing in 3 wave moves, it probably is a triangle. We likely still need waves "d" and "e" to complete. It still hasn't reached a full 38.2% correction.
Looks like we've now had this d and e, and are beginning to head back up?
I guess you can take comfort that spot gold is holding up.
QUOTE(The CoinGuy @ Jun 6 2007, 11:50 AM)
Appear to be working off the excess in the shorter time frames just fine...
$HUI - 60min Chart
I'd judge today by tomorrows action.
Best,
The CoinGuy
Gap is filled on Aggie. now in...
$HUI - 60min Chart
I'd judge today by tomorrows action.
Best,
The CoinGuy
Gap is filled on Aggie. now in...
Hi CG - thanks for the chart (excellent) and sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. This is one of those rare times for me that I've become cautious. The medium to long term fundamentals backdrop has kept me very confident in holding the pm stocks. And I continue to see very strong long term fundamentals for holding pm stocks! Currently though, I see negative divergences popping up all over the place on the broad markets. If interested I could work up some charts to show you what I'm seeing. As I said before, IMO playing these markets has been easy for the past 6 years, but now I think they're going to get more difficult. (I hope I'm wrong.)
Anyway, I took some profits on several stocks that I own removing my "back up the truck" margin position acquired in October of last year and the more recent lows.
Attached is a chart that reflects one of many bullish backdrops for the PMs going forward. If the broad markets run into trouble taking gold stocks down, hopefully the decline will be relatively mild w/ the HUI bouncing off the 300 level decoupling as it did in the '73-'74 bear market. But I'm not that happy with the recent performance for gold and the pm stocks. Hopefully I'm wrong, and we keep going up here.
goobercautiousforachange
Goober, no need to go to the trouble of working up the charts. I follow "every" market very close and i'm well aware of the divergences in place...
Best,
The CoinGuy
Best,
The CoinGuy
AEM:
Threre's a very bullish pattern to AEM.
OBV and a simple look at daily volume indicates accumulation.
From an Elliott perspective, there's an abc down--a flat--a 3-3-5 pattern followed by a launch.
Finally, it seems to be bull flagging.
I already own this stock and I've sold covered calls against it.
I'll bail on the calls today.
Threre's a very bullish pattern to AEM.
OBV and a simple look at daily volume indicates accumulation.
From an Elliott perspective, there's an abc down--a flat--a 3-3-5 pattern followed by a launch.
Finally, it seems to be bull flagging.
I already own this stock and I've sold covered calls against it.
I'll bail on the calls today.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.