http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
Full Version: IDS World Markets Mon 4th June 07
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
Oz market open but a state holiday where I am and I've got a couple of things on. I'll be back this arvo for an update.... 
I set off on the treadly for the holiday pump class at the gym and it rained all the way there and back, just great, and the maximum today was 11C which is not quite as low as the June record of 9.6C set in 1946 but close enough. Needless to say some other activities I had planned with friends were severely curtailed but there were alternatives
I missed most the market action but it seems that All Ords did one of its boner blasts, +0.9%, which takes us to yet another record closing high. Healthcare headed the pack, +1.4% and Consumer Discretionary was up the least, +0.1%.
A spotty day for the miners. While BHP, +2.1%, did well, RIO barely gained traction, +0.1% and it was a similar story in the golds with Lihir closing flat but Newcrest up an impressive 5.2% and Newmont +1.8%.
Oils did ok: Woodside +0.6% and Santos +1.5%.
Over in Asia, China did a massive move, -8.3% but other bourses remained relatively unaffected with Sth Korea +1.2%, Singers +0.8% and Nikkers +0.1%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
bulls have been trained to buy every dip
one of these days they'll find themselves holding a loss at the close
and they won't take it MOC
that's when shorty will have 'em right where he wants 'em
day after day
all the way back down
round tripper
one of these days they'll find themselves holding a loss at the close
and they won't take it MOC
that's when shorty will have 'em right where he wants 'em
day after day
all the way back down
round tripper
China's Stocks Post Record Drop
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
QUOTE
Click Here
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
QUOTE(mdporter @ Jun 3 2007, 10:15 PM)
A friend of mine told me that he is making $1,500 a day outside his job, and they he's pissed off that the UC system won't let him retire until age 50. Poor baby. He works at Lawrence Livermore labs.
I asked him what he's doing to make that much money every day, and pointed out that he is looking at $547,000 annualized (untyped message, dewd, please quit your job and become a private citizen again).
His secret is that he's playing the Chinese stock market. He said he will get out "before it crashes".
From what it sounds like, he has his entire trading account in the Chinese issues right now.
I asked him what he's doing to make that much money every day, and pointed out that he is looking at $547,000 annualized (untyped message, dewd, please quit your job and become a private citizen again).
His secret is that he's playing the Chinese stock market. He said he will get out "before it crashes".
From what it sounds like, he has his entire trading account in the Chinese issues right now.
I didn't even know that foreigners had access to the A-shares!?
"The government limits foreign investment in local-currency securities to $10 billion, a quota that China said last month it plans to triple. Local banks are allowed to invest a combined total of $14.9 billion overseas, half of which can be used to buy stocks listed on approved exchanges."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...OqIM&refer=home
QUOTE(FeedFool @ Jun 4 2007, 04:47 AM)
QUOTE
Click Here
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
Last time I looked this wasn't true for the European oil service companies.
If peak oil is true, new explorations will peak as well.
Already mentioned here but with more gritty details now:
" Final Straw
The final straw came later in March, when Dillon Read joined the list of investors burned by bets on the U.S. mortgage market. The UBS account hemorrhaged as defaults surged on so- called subprime home loans to people with poor credit histories or high debt burdens, forcing Dillon Read to mark down the value of its mortgage bonds. The losses more than obliterated the account's trading profits for January and February.
Costas said he immediately phoned John Fraser, chairman and CEO of UBS Global Asset Management, to report what happened, hopeful that UBS would tolerate a single month of losses after so many years of successful trading. Instead, Costas said UBS gave him two options: return the bank's capital and stay in business managing the fund for outside investors; or let UBS take over its account at Dillon Read and cash out clients with their gains intact. He chose the latter.
``If this other plan doesn't work I have to liquidate that portfolio,'' Costas said. ``Funds don't take well to liquidation.'' "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...TJo0&refer=home
The pain from liquidation of the Subprime bagholders will eventually kick in.
This guy was "forced" to mark down the value of the subprime holdings because he works for UBS, I wonder how many unregulated hedge funs don't mark down the value of low (non-existent?) liquidity ASSets suchs as CDO tranches. How many holes does the ponzi-scheme have? It has happened before in Japan, why not in the US? If a company like ENRON can hide losses under the SEC's and the market's nose why not unregulated offshore hedge funs?
It's all good until clients start drawing funds.
" Fundraising Constraints
``Where we should have gone quicker was getting out that second and third fund into the marketplace,'' Costas said. ``One of the things that we weren't successful at, given the constraints we were dealing with, was trying to roll out product quick enough.'' "
Sounds like a Ponzi scheme - you just have to keep the money flowing in...
" Final Straw
The final straw came later in March, when Dillon Read joined the list of investors burned by bets on the U.S. mortgage market. The UBS account hemorrhaged as defaults surged on so- called subprime home loans to people with poor credit histories or high debt burdens, forcing Dillon Read to mark down the value of its mortgage bonds. The losses more than obliterated the account's trading profits for January and February.
Costas said he immediately phoned John Fraser, chairman and CEO of UBS Global Asset Management, to report what happened, hopeful that UBS would tolerate a single month of losses after so many years of successful trading. Instead, Costas said UBS gave him two options: return the bank's capital and stay in business managing the fund for outside investors; or let UBS take over its account at Dillon Read and cash out clients with their gains intact. He chose the latter.
``If this other plan doesn't work I have to liquidate that portfolio,'' Costas said. ``Funds don't take well to liquidation.'' "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...TJo0&refer=home
The pain from liquidation of the Subprime bagholders will eventually kick in.
This guy was "forced" to mark down the value of the subprime holdings because he works for UBS, I wonder how many unregulated hedge funs don't mark down the value of low (non-existent?) liquidity ASSets suchs as CDO tranches. How many holes does the ponzi-scheme have? It has happened before in Japan, why not in the US? If a company like ENRON can hide losses under the SEC's and the market's nose why not unregulated offshore hedge funs?
It's all good until clients start drawing funds.
" Fundraising Constraints
``Where we should have gone quicker was getting out that second and third fund into the marketplace,'' Costas said. ``One of the things that we weren't successful at, given the constraints we were dealing with, was trying to roll out product quick enough.'' "
Sounds like a Ponzi scheme - you just have to keep the money flowing in...
This ought to make for an interesting day...
Not that it wasn't going to be a great day anyhow...
Rain Postpones NASCAR Race Until Noon Monday!
Good Morning!
Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
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If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
Doc
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Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.
Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.
If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.
If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.
Many tanks for joining us!
Doc
Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!
Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool!
Well. getting outta the A Shares before the "crash" window might have been last week.
8%+ Smackdown today in Shanghai today.
China bears had a nice day today.
8%+ Smackdown today in Shanghai today.
China bears had a nice day today.
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 4 2007, 11:10 AM)
QUOTE(FeedFool @ Jun 4 2007, 04:47 AM)
QUOTE
Click Here
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
During the California Gold Rush, it was the suppliers of the miners -- purveyors of pickaxes and shovels -- and not the hopeful prospectors, who really struck it rich.
Except returns for oil- and metals-linked funds are sorely lagging ETFs invested in shares of companies that produce and sell those products. Once again, it's the makers of tools and equipment to unearth and refine oil, gold and industrial metals that are posting the strongest gains.
Last time I looked this wasn't true for the European oil service companies.
If peak oil is true, new explorations will peak as well.
Wait a minute aren't China bears Pandas?
More games around the 666....similar circumstances as last time (i.e. China sell-off, gold at $666). And people think the markets are random.....bah!
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Jun 4 2007, 03:54 AM)
China's Stocks Post Record Drop
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
The effects on the U.S markets are getting less and less.
FXI unfazed by the china selloff.
Down only .36.
Down only .36.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 4 2007, 09:41 AM)
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Jun 4 2007, 03:54 AM)
China's Stocks Post Record Drop
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.
Concern that the government will further lift taxes on share trading was heightened on June 1, after figures showed the increase in stamp duty failed to deter investors from opening accounts.
More than 420,000 brokerage accounts were set up on May 30, exceeding this quarter's average of about 300,000, official figures show. The number of accounts last week topped 100 million for the first time.
The effects on the U.S markets are getting less and less.
That's a bullish signal now.
Bought a small start position in GDX
"China Doesn't Steer the U.S. Interest-Rate Ship: Caroline Baum "
" Real-World Example
Last month, China announced it was investing $3 billion of its dollar reserves in Blackstone Group LP, manager of the second-largest buyout fund, to boost its returns. What if China were to shoot itself in the foot and dump its entire Treasury portfolio in one fell swoop?
It just so happens we have a real-world example of what it would mean, according to Bianco. The Bank of Japan bought $244 billion of Treasuries in the 12 months ended August 2004. During that time, U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the dollar fell versus the yen.
By April 2006, the BOJ was a net seller of U.S. Treasuries (on a 12-month basis) to the tune of $26 billion, a swing of $270 billion. U.S. interest rates fell during that period while the dollar rose.
``The BOJ bought a quarter-trillion dollars of Treasuries and then abruptly stopped and no one noticed,'' Bianco says.
Never let the evidence stand in the way of a popular obsession. "
So it does but it doesn't !!?
" Real-World Example
Last month, China announced it was investing $3 billion of its dollar reserves in Blackstone Group LP, manager of the second-largest buyout fund, to boost its returns. What if China were to shoot itself in the foot and dump its entire Treasury portfolio in one fell swoop?
It just so happens we have a real-world example of what it would mean, according to Bianco. The Bank of Japan bought $244 billion of Treasuries in the 12 months ended August 2004. During that time, U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the dollar fell versus the yen.
By April 2006, the BOJ was a net seller of U.S. Treasuries (on a 12-month basis) to the tune of $26 billion, a swing of $270 billion. U.S. interest rates fell during that period while the dollar rose.
``The BOJ bought a quarter-trillion dollars of Treasuries and then abruptly stopped and no one noticed,'' Bianco says.
Never let the evidence stand in the way of a popular obsession. "
So it does but it doesn't !!?
Hilarious.
Kevin and Angela Schmuck.
Peter Bending and Richard (You can call me Dick) Pounder.
You are too much.
OK, it's offensive. But anything that funny scores so many points on the hilarious satire meter that I just had to give credit for redeeming social value.
Kevin and Angela Schmuck.
Peter Bending and Richard (You can call me Dick) Pounder.
You are too much.
OK, it's offensive. But anything that funny scores so many points on the hilarious satire meter that I just had to give credit for redeeming social value.
QUOTE(shorty @ Jun 3 2007, 05:29 PM)
Desperate Floriduh Ream Estate BagHolders Forced to Harbor Hole-Punching Renters to Stave Off Financial Ruin
"You're trying to rent it just to stop the bleeding, " said Gary Schraut, owner of a Coldwell Banker ream estate borkerage in Borksville.
"They want to cover their costs, but you have to tell them, 'That ain't gonna happen, ' " said New Tampa's Duncan. "They'll rent at a loss of $600 to $700 every month and try to figure out what to do."
Meanwhile, their insurance costs and taxes are spurting up, unimpeded by any caps.
The double-whammy of rising costs and sinking rents, said St. Petersburg's Crone, "is starting to approach what I see as a crisis on the horizon."
Many are like Kevin Schmuck, 40, of Land O'Lakes, who seized on a popular investment tactic: make a $10,000 down payment on a house, then sell it for a $30,000 to $50,000 profit a couple of years later.
Schmuck and his wife, Angela, both in the sales and marketing fields, profited hugely in 2004, when they sold their home and bought a larger one. So the next year, they invested $200,000 in a townhouse in Wesley Chapel. Early last year, they added a $320,000 house.
Now, the Schmucks have lost more money on their new investments than they made on the original one, and they're seeking a tenant for the townhouse.
For some, the collapsing ream estate market is a good thing. "We're lovin' it," said Peter Bending of Clearwater, who rents a new three-bedroom home with his partner Richard Pounder. "When Richard lost his job at the salon, we couldn't afford the rent on the old house, but it took them almost a year to evict us. So we figure we can probably stay in this place a year without paying, too. We really like it here."
"You're trying to rent it just to stop the bleeding, " said Gary Schraut, owner of a Coldwell Banker ream estate borkerage in Borksville.
"They want to cover their costs, but you have to tell them, 'That ain't gonna happen, ' " said New Tampa's Duncan. "They'll rent at a loss of $600 to $700 every month and try to figure out what to do."
Meanwhile, their insurance costs and taxes are spurting up, unimpeded by any caps.
The double-whammy of rising costs and sinking rents, said St. Petersburg's Crone, "is starting to approach what I see as a crisis on the horizon."
Many are like Kevin Schmuck, 40, of Land O'Lakes, who seized on a popular investment tactic: make a $10,000 down payment on a house, then sell it for a $30,000 to $50,000 profit a couple of years later.
Schmuck and his wife, Angela, both in the sales and marketing fields, profited hugely in 2004, when they sold their home and bought a larger one. So the next year, they invested $200,000 in a townhouse in Wesley Chapel. Early last year, they added a $320,000 house.
Now, the Schmucks have lost more money on their new investments than they made on the original one, and they're seeking a tenant for the townhouse.
For some, the collapsing ream estate market is a good thing. "We're lovin' it," said Peter Bending of Clearwater, who rents a new three-bedroom home with his partner Richard Pounder. "When Richard lost his job at the salon, we couldn't afford the rent on the old house, but it took them almost a year to evict us. So we figure we can probably stay in this place a year without paying, too. We really like it here."
GOOG and AAPL making a fearless finger formation (FFF). GOOG puts entered @ 510. AAPL still scares me ....
What day is it today?
Ah, must be Monday!
How do I know?
Skid Row Haines isn't on the boob-tube.
Ah, must be Monday!
How do I know?
Skid Row Haines isn't on the boob-tube.
Goog up 8 bucks.
Not bad for a selloff.
Not bad for a selloff.
The clowns over at Crapvision aren't looking too smiley this AM.
Why is that?
Once 'ol Ruppert takes out Dow Jones they will loose access to virtually all their content as all they really do all day is narrate the articles from the WSJ. Yeah, sure they have a contract with WSJ going out a number of years -- but as one of my securities lawyer buddies drilled into my head in my corporate days -- legal agreements (e.g., contracts) don't mean shit, any contract can be broken, just a matter of evaluating the economics of the ensuing litigation.
Then Uncle Ruppert will have the WSJ content all to himself for his Fox business channel that he'll be firing up later this year.
Why is that?
Once 'ol Ruppert takes out Dow Jones they will loose access to virtually all their content as all they really do all day is narrate the articles from the WSJ. Yeah, sure they have a contract with WSJ going out a number of years -- but as one of my securities lawyer buddies drilled into my head in my corporate days -- legal agreements (e.g., contracts) don't mean shit, any contract can be broken, just a matter of evaluating the economics of the ensuing litigation.
Then Uncle Ruppert will have the WSJ content all to himself for his Fox business channel that he'll be firing up later this year.
Are dippsters finally losing their mo-mo?
DJ Fed Accepts $5 Bln In Overnight RPs
Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $5 Bln
Total submitted: $27.95 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.805 Bln
Total submitted: $11.65 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.23%
Weighted Average: 5.23%
High-rate submitted: 5.24%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.195 Bln
Total submitted: $11.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.1%
Weighted Average: 5.11%
High-rate submitted: 5.11%
Low-rate submitted: 5%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $4.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.24%
Low-rate submitted: 5.21%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank)
QUOTE(dogsie @ Jun 4 2007, 09:37 AM)
Are dippsters finally losing their mo-mo?
Probably take it down for a reload.
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 4 2007, 07:11 AM)
"China Doesn't Steer the U.S. Interest-Rate Ship: Caroline Baum "
" Real-World Example
Last month, China announced it was investing $3 billion of its dollar reserves in Blackstone Group LP, manager of the second-largest buyout fund, to boost its returns. What if China were to shoot itself in the foot and dump its entire Treasury portfolio in one fell swoop?
It just so happens we have a real-world example of what it would mean, according to Bianco. The Bank of Japan bought $244 billion of Treasuries in the 12 months ended August 2004. During that time, U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the dollar fell versus the yen.
By April 2006, the BOJ was a net seller of U.S. Treasuries (on a 12-month basis) to the tune of $26 billion, a swing of $270 billion. U.S. interest rates fell during that period while the dollar rose.
``The BOJ bought a quarter-trillion dollars of Treasuries and then abruptly stopped and no one noticed,'' Bianco says.
Never let the evidence stand in the way of a popular obsession. "
So it does but it doesn't !!?
" Real-World Example
Last month, China announced it was investing $3 billion of its dollar reserves in Blackstone Group LP, manager of the second-largest buyout fund, to boost its returns. What if China were to shoot itself in the foot and dump its entire Treasury portfolio in one fell swoop?
It just so happens we have a real-world example of what it would mean, according to Bianco. The Bank of Japan bought $244 billion of Treasuries in the 12 months ended August 2004. During that time, U.S. long-term interest rates rose and the dollar fell versus the yen.
By April 2006, the BOJ was a net seller of U.S. Treasuries (on a 12-month basis) to the tune of $26 billion, a swing of $270 billion. U.S. interest rates fell during that period while the dollar rose.
``The BOJ bought a quarter-trillion dollars of Treasuries and then abruptly stopped and no one noticed,'' Bianco says.
Never let the evidence stand in the way of a popular obsession. "
So it does but it doesn't !!?
Should be entitled "Real World Factoid." BoJ purchases were rendered irrelevant by the larval appetite of carry-traders scooping up billions more than the central bank sold.
Anybody who thinks that foreign buying isn't absolutely crucial to the Trashury market is smoking something that they need to start sharing with the rest of their fellow stoolies . . .
I wish I was smart enough to put together a chart like this -- just possibly the most significant one you will see this year:
Read more about it at ContraryInvestor.
Read more about it at ContraryInvestor.
P/C on OEX is 2.5 today, 3rd day in a row of very bearish sentiment. While equity p/c is .507.
QUOTE(dogsie @ Jun 4 2007, 08:14 AM)
P/C on OEX is 2.5 today, 3rd day in a row of very bearish sentiment. While equity p/c is .507.
Tanks -- what's your data source?
Right from the horse's mouth
I am reposting this from a Chris Locke aka oyster email.
I don't have much time to post because have been very busy with soya/grains but....
.
See note 3) Re statistics for an October low for '7' years
Of all the ‘7’ years since 1917:
1) There was 1 period that produced a major high in the 2nd quarter: that was 1917 when prices topped on June 8th (90-year cycle).
There were 6 periods that produced major highs in the 3rd quarter: July 25th 1947, July 16th 1957, August 7th 1997, August 16th 1937, August 25th 1987, and September 26th 1967.
2) Falls from year ‘7’ highs were anything between 11% and 49%. Therefore the average fall from these major highs was 26%. 26% falls from the recent highs 1540.56 for example on the cash S&P would take prices back to 1140. That would be in the region of 50% retracement of the bull market from October 2002 to the current highs. 61.8% retracement would take prices near to the 2004 correction lows of 1060, which would correlate with a fall of 31% from current highs.
3) After prices topped in year ‘7’ there were 8 important lows made the same year although some were not the ultimate low for the moves. NOTE ALL THESE LOWS OCCURRED IN OCTOBER: 19TH October 1937 (a lower low occurred 24th November 1937), 20th October 1987 (the ultimate crash low), 20th October 1947 (the low was ultimately February 11th 1948), 25th October 1957, 25th October 1977 (the ultimate low was 1st March 1978), 28th October 1997 and 20th November 1967(the ultimate low was March 22nd 1968).
In summary basis the above statistics a good bet appears to be on a major correction this year 2007 on world stock markets with an important peak either now at the beginning of June (June 8th) or late July/early August. A high now would match with Roy's Spiral Calendar link of a major top in the Chinese market with the 29th December 1989 all-time bull market high on the Nikkei
I don't have much time to post because have been very busy with soya/grains but....
.
See note 3) Re statistics for an October low for '7' years
Of all the ‘7’ years since 1917:
1) There was 1 period that produced a major high in the 2nd quarter: that was 1917 when prices topped on June 8th (90-year cycle).
There were 6 periods that produced major highs in the 3rd quarter: July 25th 1947, July 16th 1957, August 7th 1997, August 16th 1937, August 25th 1987, and September 26th 1967.
2) Falls from year ‘7’ highs were anything between 11% and 49%. Therefore the average fall from these major highs was 26%. 26% falls from the recent highs 1540.56 for example on the cash S&P would take prices back to 1140. That would be in the region of 50% retracement of the bull market from October 2002 to the current highs. 61.8% retracement would take prices near to the 2004 correction lows of 1060, which would correlate with a fall of 31% from current highs.
3) After prices topped in year ‘7’ there were 8 important lows made the same year although some were not the ultimate low for the moves. NOTE ALL THESE LOWS OCCURRED IN OCTOBER: 19TH October 1937 (a lower low occurred 24th November 1937), 20th October 1987 (the ultimate crash low), 20th October 1947 (the low was ultimately February 11th 1948), 25th October 1957, 25th October 1977 (the ultimate low was 1st March 1978), 28th October 1997 and 20th November 1967(the ultimate low was March 22nd 1968).
In summary basis the above statistics a good bet appears to be on a major correction this year 2007 on world stock markets with an important peak either now at the beginning of June (June 8th) or late July/early August. A high now would match with Roy's Spiral Calendar link of a major top in the Chinese market with the 29th December 1989 all-time bull market high on the Nikkei
QUOTE(4shzl @ Jun 4 2007, 11:13 AM)
I wish I was smart enough to put together a chart like this -- just possibly the most significant one you will see this year:
Read more about it at ContraryInvestor.
There are trends that are more significant than commodity cycles. The cost to produce, mine, explore, refine and deliver raw material is skyrocketing making future producers, miners, refiners and explorers economically bankrupt.
QUOTE
As a Pennsylvania farmer put it to me in February: "It looks like we're going to burn up the last remaining six inches of Midwest topsoil in our gas-tanks."
QUOTE
...continued industrial expansion in China and India are based on the assumption that they somehow will be immune to the global energy crisis and to the ecological catastrophes entailed by climate change. More likely: both nations will be overwhelmed by these things and the only question will be how desperate their political convulsions will be in response (or how rapidly they devolve back to twelfth century living standards).
Link
QUOTE
``China's a secluded market, so its plunge will have limited regional impact,'' said Liu Juming, who helps manage $1.7 billion at IBT Securities Co. in Taipei.
Gloomberg
Secluded, indeed. And here are some local money managers reviewing their portfolios at a secluded after-hours strategy meeting:
Junior china gas play carving up a nice bottom.
Check out the golden cross.
Check out the golden cross.
QUOTE(Black Prince @ Jun 4 2007, 08:30 AM)
I am reposting this from a Chris Locke aka oyster email.
I don't have much time to post because have been very busy with soya/grains but....
.
See note 3) Re statistics for an October low for '7' years
Of all the ‘7’ years since 1917:
1) There was 1 period that produced a major high in the 2nd quarter: that was 1917 when prices topped on June 8th (90-year cycle).
There were 6 periods that produced major highs in the 3rd quarter: July 25th 1947, July 16th 1957, August 7th 1997, August 16th 1937, August 25th 1987, and September 26th 1967.
2) Falls from year ‘7’ highs were anything between 11% and 49%. Therefore the average fall from these major highs was 26%. 26% falls from the recent highs 1540.56 for example on the cash S&P would take prices back to 1140. That would be in the region of 50% retracement of the bull market from October 2002 to the current highs. 61.8% retracement would take prices near to the 2004 correction lows of 1060, which would correlate with a fall of 31% from current highs.
3) After prices topped in year ‘7’ there were 8 important lows made the same year although some were not the ultimate low for the moves. NOTE ALL THESE LOWS OCCURRED IN OCTOBER: 19TH October 1937 (a lower low occurred 24th November 1937), 20th October 1987 (the ultimate crash low), 20th October 1947 (the low was ultimately February 11th 1948), 25th October 1957, 25th October 1977 (the ultimate low was 1st March 1978), 28th October 1997 and 20th November 1967(the ultimate low was March 22nd 1968).
In summary basis the above statistics a good bet appears to be on a major correction this year 2007 on world stock markets with an important peak either now at the beginning of June (June 8th) or late July/early August. A high now would match with Roy's Spiral Calendar link of a major top in the Chinese market with the 29th December 1989 all-time bull market high on the Nikkei
I don't have much time to post because have been very busy with soya/grains but....
.
See note 3) Re statistics for an October low for '7' years
Of all the ‘7’ years since 1917:
1) There was 1 period that produced a major high in the 2nd quarter: that was 1917 when prices topped on June 8th (90-year cycle).
There were 6 periods that produced major highs in the 3rd quarter: July 25th 1947, July 16th 1957, August 7th 1997, August 16th 1937, August 25th 1987, and September 26th 1967.
2) Falls from year ‘7’ highs were anything between 11% and 49%. Therefore the average fall from these major highs was 26%. 26% falls from the recent highs 1540.56 for example on the cash S&P would take prices back to 1140. That would be in the region of 50% retracement of the bull market from October 2002 to the current highs. 61.8% retracement would take prices near to the 2004 correction lows of 1060, which would correlate with a fall of 31% from current highs.
3) After prices topped in year ‘7’ there were 8 important lows made the same year although some were not the ultimate low for the moves. NOTE ALL THESE LOWS OCCURRED IN OCTOBER: 19TH October 1937 (a lower low occurred 24th November 1937), 20th October 1987 (the ultimate crash low), 20th October 1947 (the low was ultimately February 11th 1948), 25th October 1957, 25th October 1977 (the ultimate low was 1st March 1978), 28th October 1997 and 20th November 1967(the ultimate low was March 22nd 1968).
In summary basis the above statistics a good bet appears to be on a major correction this year 2007 on world stock markets with an important peak either now at the beginning of June (June 8th) or late July/early August. A high now would match with Roy's Spiral Calendar link of a major top in the Chinese market with the 29th December 1989 all-time bull market high on the Nikkei
I wrote a post on the blog in March that covers this phenomenon. Here's the link:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/?p=120
Whether the "7th year curse" strikes again is anyone's guess. But when you look at the decennial pattern over the past century (chart below), you can see that the traditional timeframe for a "disturbance in the force" doesn't really come into play until the 2H.
Markets have a funny way of looking great until they don't, like they did in the 1H of 1907, 1917, 1937, 1947, 1957, 1987, 1997. So if we do get a selloff of some magnitude, it probably wouldn't show up until the Jul-Dec07 period, historically speaking. That might be the bears' best shot for a while.
OIH new high.
Can't see this market cracking.
Can't see this market cracking.
[attachmentid=84039]
Big Pharma, like all mafia organizations, don't give a shit about science and clean data, they only care about loyalty and obedience.
By THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: June 4, 2007
CHICAGO, June 3 — Two prominent prostate cancer experts have received threats because of their opposition to approval of a new drug, officials attending the conference of the the American Society of Clinical Oncology said Sunday.
The experts, Dr. Howard I. Scher of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and Dr. Maha Hussain of the University of Michigan, received e-mail and other threats, spokeswomen for Sloan-Kettering and for the cancer conference said.
Big Pharma, like all mafia organizations, don't give a shit about science and clean data, they only care about loyalty and obedience.
By THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: June 4, 2007
CHICAGO, June 3 — Two prominent prostate cancer experts have received threats because of their opposition to approval of a new drug, officials attending the conference of the the American Society of Clinical Oncology said Sunday.
The experts, Dr. Howard I. Scher of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and Dr. Maha Hussain of the University of Michigan, received e-mail and other threats, spokeswomen for Sloan-Kettering and for the cancer conference said.
Drug companies do care about research and results. They spend a lot of time and money lobbying congress to limit their liabilities and to protect their products.
It's amazing for what passes as legal.
It's amazing for what passes as legal.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 4 2007, 12:06 PM)
OIH new high.
Can't see this market cracking.
Can't see this market cracking.
So far, my oils are rocking.
Pays off to be 100% fully invested for at least 9 - 12 months after the Rydex cumulative cash flow on the energy services sector was basically cut in half this March from the 2006 peak.
QUOTE(wndysrf @ Jun 4 2007, 11:41 AM)
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 4 2007, 12:06 PM)
OIH new high.
Can't see this market cracking.
Can't see this market cracking.
So far, my oils are rocking.
Pays off to be 100% fully invested for at least 9 - 12 months after the Rydex cumulative cash flow on the energy services sector was basically cut in half this March from the 2006 peak.
Still got your ERF?
Looks like i bailed early at 48.5.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 4 2007, 12:06 PM)
OIH new high.
Can't see this market cracking.
Can't see this market cracking.
XOM up $0.11 ?
QUOTE(Whadda I Do Whadda I Do @ Jun 4 2007, 11:25 AM)
Drug companies do care about research and results. They spend a lot of time and money lobbying congress to limit their liabilities and to protect their products.
It's amazing for what passes as legal.
It's amazing for what passes as legal.
With the right lobby.... criminal behavior can be legalized...
In case you missed, it the Rydex cumulative cash flow was basically cut down by 225% over a period of 2 1/2 years, while the Rydex PM fund was rising!!!
This is the most bullish setup I've ever seen in an individual Rydex sector.
This is the most bullish setup I've ever seen in an individual Rydex sector.
I got creamed on UTSI - china market contagion. Fortunately I have a fair amount of energy stocks to contain the damage. Fairly quiet market today.
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 4 2007, 09:24 AM)
Goog up 8 bucks.
Not bad for a selloff.
Not bad for a selloff.
I'm actually already in the money 3 bucks .. and holding. This is GOOGs third shot at 513. After a non-stop rise of 50 pts. 497 is my exit, unless we get some unexpected (but overdue) downthrust.
Or close above 513.
GOOG is still the speculative bellweather, in the USA, at least. At least AAPL has some bricks and mortar. A GOOG reversal with AAPL treading water will be very intersesting to watch.
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