QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 11:15 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07% Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?
Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.htmlhas been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.
I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.
I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....
There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...
What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
The change in the SOMA since late November has been zero. If that's not tight, I don't know what is.
The Fed has not been responsible for this meltup at all. You need to look elsewhere (for example, $65 billion in Treasury paydowns over last week and this week) if you want to place blame, but it's a wasted exercise under any circumstances.
I also don't agree that the Fed isn't accurately reporting its holdings. When you look at the whole picture, everything seems to be working like clockwork. If the Fed were obfuscating, there would probably be some indication of that, but I don't see it. The idea that the Fed is withholding data does not withstand the scrutiny of careful analysis, at least as I analyze it. In fact, what the Fed has been doing makes a lot of sense when viewed in the proper context. You might not like what they are doing, but there's a very clear and measurable method to their madness. From my viewpoint, there's nothing hidden.
I'll have all the data, charts, and a complete explanation posted in the WSE Pro Fed report after the 13 week bill auction results.