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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
user posted image


Thanks Al for filling in Thurs & Fri .... smile.gif

Fairly mediocre action today. All Ords +0.6% with only Energy and Materials seeing bullish action, both up +1.4%. Property Trusts is down the most, -0.9% followed by Telecoms, -0.7%.

In the miners, BHP and RIO both doing well, +1.4% and 2% respectively. The golds also seeing some buying action, Newcrest +2.3% and Newmont +0.4%.

Oils are up on low volume: Woodside +0.8% and Santos +1.3%. Refiner Caltex having a good one, +3.5%.



aussiebear
South Korea's Department Store Sales Decline for Second Month

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's department store sales declined for a second month in May as a clampdown on the housing market reduced home sales and sapped demand for home appliances and furniture.

Sales at the nation's three biggest department store chains dropped 0.1 percent from a year earlier after shedding 2.3 percent in April, the Commerce Ministry said today in Gwacheon, South Korea.

-------------

Hong Kong Airport Handled 7.5 Percent More Passengers in May

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong International Airport handled 7.5 percent more passengers in May from a year earlier as visitor numbers increased from Europe and mainland China.

The airport processed 3.8 million passengers last month, the Airport Authority said in a faxed statement. It handled 294,000 tons of cargo in May, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier, as demand for export shipments increased, the government-owned operator said.




FeedFool
Is there an Another Doom and Gloom around the corner??
aussiebear
user posted image


Up but nothing to get excited about at this stage. All Ords +0.8% which puts us back in the middle of that unwieldy expanding formation. The gain was mostly concentrated in 3 sectors, Energy +1.8%, IT +1.7% and Materials +1.5%. Property Trusts and Telecomms continued to barrel south, -1.1% and -1.7%.

Reasonable rises on the two big miners: BHP +2% and RIO +2.7% and in the golds, Newcrest +1.4% and Newmont +0.2%.

In the oils, Woodside +2.1% and Santos +0.5%.

Asia soaring: China +2.8%, Honkers +2.2%, Nikkers and Singers +1%, Sth Korea +2%.

Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe


DrStool
Good Morning!

Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening and to Alcie for filling in last week!

You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.

Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.

If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.

If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.

Many tanks for joining us!

Doc


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DrStool
QUOTE(1929_trader @ Jun 17 2007, 11:12 PM)
QUOTE(Goldmember @ Jun 17 2007, 12:38 AM)
I look at that NYA chart above and I see what might be a fresh nominal 10-13 week up-phase underway....however, the impending and inevitable weakness of the nominal 1-year cycle downphase should terminate the up-phase in this fresh 10-13 week cycle and cause mucho weakness pretty well throughout the doldrums of summer trading, well into August or so.

That's my interpretation of the Hurstisms, anyway.

With scam week now over.... blink.gif
*



I have no idea what I just read... but one thing for sure... whatever it is, it's completely wrong.
*



Posts like this really irritate me. It's a direct attack on a fellow poster borne of ignorance of cycle theory, which is the basis of my work, and to which I have frequently alluded on these boards for only seven years. Fact is, if the attacker had been a subscriber to the WSE Pro, or had bothered to pick up a copy of Hurst and read it, he would have understood exactly what Goldmember was talking about, and would also have recognized that GM had summed up the current picture reasonably well. We don't know how this will play out for sure, but we do know in general what the propensities should be based on the cycle alignment.

All of the underhanded, snide, direct and indirect flames we aim at one another serve no purpose other than to drive people away from posting here.

There will be no further warnings on this. Violations will result in suspension of posting privileges.

My apologies to all for starting off my return week like this. Now let's try to forget about it and have some fun!
Slappy

I think we're due for some action in the copper stocks...

QUOTE

Copper Gains as Miners Threaten Strikes; Lead Rises to Record

By Brett Foley

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Copper advanced for a fourth consecutive session in London as stockpiles fell and on speculation strikes at Latin American mines will disrupt supply of the metal. Lead gained to a record.

Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell for the 21st consecutive day, the exchange said today in a daily report. Workers at Codelco, the biggest copper producer, Chile's Collahuasi mine and Southern Copper Corp.'s Mexico operations have threatened to strike over pay demands.

...

link...




Slappy

A couple favorite copper/gold stocks..

user posted image

user posted image

mmoy
QUOTE(Black Prince @ Jun 17 2007, 11:57 PM)
That is really the sad part of working. Wages have not kept up with inflation since the 70's and if you did not have an investment to help you just got screwed.
*



I think that everyone should set aside some amount of money for savings when they
are younger as at some point in your career, you reach a peak for real earnings and
then you either lower your standard of living or supplement it with income from savings
or from investments.

I suspect that this isn't a popular approach in terms of percentages but I run into people that are savers on the web. There seem to be lots of them over at thehousingbubbleblog.com. Delayed gratification is the way towards wealth.

Speaking of wealth, AAPL is ramping nicely this morning. Looks to be up a buck premarket. I see VLO up 49 cents. Gasoline prices are falling in my area down about
a dime off the peak. The bull flag in oil last week says otherwise.

For some reason, I feel that this will be a relatively lazy week in the markets. But
that's just based on the weather forecast. We have relatives in town this week and
early next week so I will be taking some time off work and trading for that.
mmoy
AAPL is up about $3.30 now. I wonder if the move back to $120ish was just to kill calls. I'll check for news.
mmoy
Looks like more details of the iPhone were released this morning.

- optical-quality glass instead of a plastic screen
- 8 hours of talk life or 24 hours of mp3 or 7 hours of video

Apple really needs to upgrade their MacMini and iMac lines and there are plenty of Intel processors to choose from so they have at least two potential announcements later this year.
lucid and confused
CMED blow out earnings, 40% yoy earnings growth, PE in the teens, up 10% in premarket

edit: out in premarket
DrStool
WSE Pro PM update posted. Several good looking chart picks.
potatohead

9:12 (Dow Jones) Have you seen the commercial where the mother, crowing
about the savings she's gotten from the family's hybrid car, asks her kids
what they should do with the extra cash and one son says "What about emerging
markets?" Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Harnett saw it. "I almost fall off the
couch and turn to my wife, who's overheard the whole thing, and ask, 'You're
the consumer, what the hell does that mean? I'm an emerging market bull!'," he
writes. "Without batting an eye she says, 'It means you've got one more year.'
My gut tells me she's probably right." (PJV)
lucid and confused
Infineon Tech IFX breaking out of multiyear resistance, any thoughts?

I_Am_Madness
QUOTE(lucid and confused @ Jun 18 2007, 08:00 AM)
CMED blow out earnings, 40% yoy earnings growth, PE in the teens, up 10% in premarket

edit: out in premarket
*



Nice call.
potatohead

DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $5.25 Bln
Total submitted: $46.95 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $4.95 Bln
Total submitted: $18.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.24%
Weighted Average: 5.24%
High-rate submitted: 5.26%
Low-rate submitted: 5.18%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $12.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.24%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
I_Am_Madness
FEEC up another 10% in early trading.
1.59 high.

It's a junior china gas play.
Might take some off the table today. I'm long since the mid .80s.
dogsie
Dow high 13,666
potatohead
*DJ High Court Rules 7-1 For Wall Street Firms In Antitrust Suit
*DJ Ruling For Wall Street Firms Bars Antitrust Class-Action


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

this is what separates the men from the boys, the legitimate crime from organized crime
alceringa
Somewhere between the floor of the TSX and Yoohoo Finance, the quotation system has misplaced a digit.

So, all my Kanuckistani stocks are up over 900% according to Yoohoo. tongue.gif

As if............ laugh.gif


I_Am_Madness
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 18 2007, 09:00 AM)
FEEC up another 10% in early trading.
1.59 high.

It's a junior china gas play.
Might take some off the table today.  I'm long since the mid .80s.
*



1.74!!!!

I just sold half at 1.73..someone took my 5K shares in a heartbeat.
briarberry
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
potatohead
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 08:07 AM)
*DJ High Court Rules 7-1 For Wall Street Firms In Antitrust Suit
*DJ Ruling For Wall Street Firms Bars Antitrust Class-Action


  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

this is what separates the men from the boys, the legitimate crime from organized crime
*



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Supreme Court Monday ruled 7-1 that several
Wall Street firms are immune from a class-action lawsuit brought under federal
antitrust laws over alleged conduct on initial public offerings during the
1990s technology bubble.


immune=usually that type of language is held for government institutions and their employees.......

whoops I am sorry Wall Street owns the government
Jetlag
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 09:23 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 08:07 AM)
*DJ High Court Rules 7-1 For Wall Street Firms In Antitrust Suit
*DJ Ruling For Wall Street Firms Bars Antitrust Class-Action


  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

this is what separates the men from the boys, the legitimate crime from organized crime
*



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Supreme Court Monday ruled 7-1 that several
Wall Street firms are immune from a class-action lawsuit brought under federal
antitrust laws over alleged conduct on initial public offerings during the
1990s technology bubble.


immune=usually that type of language is held for government institutions and their employees.......

whoops I am sorry Wall Street owns the government
*



Financial crime pays.
cwd
QUOTE(Slappy @ Jun 18 2007, 07:11 AM)
A couple favorite copper/gold stocks..

user posted image

user posted image
*




Does anybody have any thoughts on NG? biggrin.gif

user posted image
I_Am_Madness
I'm out the other half at 1.91.

Hope some of you got some....
Lots of luck.
potatohead
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
FeedFool
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:23 PM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 08:07 AM)
*DJ High Court Rules 7-1 For Wall Street Firms In Antitrust Suit
*DJ Ruling For Wall Street Firms Bars Antitrust Class-Action


  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

this is what separates the men from the boys, the legitimate crime from organized crime
*



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Supreme Court Monday ruled 7-1 that several
Wall Street firms are immune from a class-action lawsuit brought under federal
antitrust laws over alleged conduct on initial public offerings during the
1990s technology bubble.


immune=usually that type of language is held for government institutions and their employees.......

whoops I am sorry Wall Street owns the government
*



Exctly


Henry M. Paulson????

Robert Zoellick?????
Bungster
QUOTE(FeedFool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:30 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:23 PM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 08:07 AM)
*DJ High Court Rules 7-1 For Wall Street Firms In Antitrust Suit
*DJ Ruling For Wall Street Firms Bars Antitrust Class-Action


  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

this is what separates the men from the boys, the legitimate crime from organized crime
*



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Supreme Court Monday ruled 7-1 that several
Wall Street firms are immune from a class-action lawsuit brought under federal
antitrust laws over alleged conduct on initial public offerings during the
1990s technology bubble.


immune=usually that type of language is held for government institutions and their employees.......

whoops I am sorry Wall Street owns the government
*



Exctly


Henry M. Paulson????

Robert Zoellick?????
*



Really makes me ill when I see things like this... mad.gif

[attachmentid=84583]
briarberry
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 03:30 PM)
has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



cheers smile.gif
potatohead
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:41 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 03:30 PM)
has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



cheers smile.gif
*




DJ IMF's Rato: Higher Mkt Rates Not A Threat To Growth


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
DrStool
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
Jetlag
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 09:58 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:41 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 03:30 PM)
has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



cheers smile.gif
*




DJ IMF's Rato: Higher Mkt Rates Not A Threat To Growth


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
*



They're just a threat to global speculation and debt driven liquidity flooding the markets.
potatohead
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
*




Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....

There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...

What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
Black Prince
Got rid of my nnrf as it seemed to risky and subsituted it with AZK. Since they do their mining in Quebec maybe I can go up there and harass doc and write it off as a bidness expense.
Jetlag
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
*




Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....

There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...

What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
*



If the velocity of money is picking up doesn't that mean that you can add more liquidity without creating inflation?
potatohead
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 18 2007, 09:34 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
*




Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....

There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...

What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
*



If the velocity of money is picking up doesn't that mean that you can add more liquidity without creating inflation?
*




no, just the opposite, any add to liquidity has a more toxic effect on inflation...throwing not just gasoline on open fire but the highest octane burning fuel known to man kind
linrom
DBA -Ag ETF has had a huge increase in volume during last several days. It now trades at $28 with NAV about $27.64. It must be some kind of blow-off.

[attachmentid=84584]
Jetlag
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:38 AM)
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 18 2007, 09:34 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:15 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
*




Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....

There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...

What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
*



If the velocity of money is picking up doesn't that mean that you can add more liquidity without creating inflation?
*




no, just the opposite, any add to liquidity has a more toxic effect on inflation...throwing not just gasoline on open fire but the highest octane burning fuel known to man kind
*



Oops, me bad, should reread academic work

user posted image
I_Am_Madness
BVN breaking out.
Bucking the Gold trend.
DrStool
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 11:15 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 18 2007, 09:01 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 10:30 AM)
QUOTE(briarberry @ Jun 18 2007, 08:22 AM)
QUOTE(potatohead @ Jun 18 2007, 02:46 PM)
DJ Fed Accepts $5.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $300 Mln
Total submitted: $15.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.07%
Weighted Average: 5.07%
High-rate submitted: 5.07%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




if you don't mind me asking potatohead, what is the trend on this rate ? I don't usually bother looking ?

Stop Out Rate: The interest rate is set through a single price auction process. The stop out rate is the interest rate at which all awarded institutions will pay upon maturity. The stop out rate is also referred to as the lowest accepted bid rate.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/tip/background.html
*




has been around 5.18 to 5.25.....in the past it is very close to Fed Funds rate, unless the fed is planning to change the overnight rate or their is an issue in the system or they are adding mucho grande....this is abnormally low for the rate rise we have seen in the bond mkt....then again I said a few weeks ago...the surprise would be to add money to save economy, while at same time lift rates in longer maturities to save dollar...what a game....eventually something will give way....the bond market or the economy
*



This was a net drain of $6.25 billion today, not an add. The fact that the stop out rate was this low reflects excess liquidity in the system from last week's big Treasury debt paydown as corporate taxes came in on Friday. This slack in the system is temporary of course, but it was the reason behind last week's market rally as well as the drop in short term interest rates as the markets got flooded with liquidity from the Treasury. You will also note that bond yields also backed off from Wednesday's peak as a result. There's no magic here. This was all knowable and known in advance based on the Treasury auction schedule, and the known dates of tax flows coming in.

I wouldn't attribute any meaning to these liquidity flows other than the obvious. Tax revenues flow into the markets temporarily as the Treasury pays down debt. The Fed has actually been relatively tight all year, and remains so. The Fed often acts to counter the excess liquidity from the Treasury during those weeks when the Treasury is paying down debt.

I will have a complete update with data, charts, and analysis coming up in the WSE Pro Fed and Treasury report coming up after the 13 week bill auction results are announced at 1:00PM.
*




Doc I would disagree with the analysis the fed is being tight.... They have not raised rates...only maybe 3 days where they actually did reverse repos.....and they continued to talk up the financial markets and add to the speculative activity....

There is no audit of Federal Reserve activities so no one really knows what is really happening but I believe that the velocity of money is starting to pick up...

What that means is the fed does not have to add another dime and you will still see the effects of hyperinflation....velocity is what hyperinflation is really about....a decline in the trust of the currency and the belief that one's currency holds no value...when that happens only real assets rule and "Nothing Else Matters"
*



The change in the SOMA since late November has been zero. If that's not tight, I don't know what is.

The Fed has not been responsible for this meltup at all. You need to look elsewhere (for example, $65 billion in Treasury paydowns over last week and this week) if you want to place blame, but it's a wasted exercise under any circumstances.

I also don't agree that the Fed isn't accurately reporting its holdings. When you look at the whole picture, everything seems to be working like clockwork. If the Fed were obfuscating, there would probably be some indication of that, but I don't see it. The idea that the Fed is withholding data does not withstand the scrutiny of careful analysis, at least as I analyze it. In fact, what the Fed has been doing makes a lot of sense when viewed in the proper context. You might not like what they are doing, but there's a very clear and measurable method to their madness. From my viewpoint, there's nothing hidden.

I'll have all the data, charts, and a complete explanation posted in the WSE Pro Fed report after the 13 week bill auction results.
mdporter
QUOTE(mmoy @ Jun 18 2007, 05:48 AM)
Looks like more details of the iPhone were released this morning.

- optical-quality glass instead of a plastic screen
- 8 hours of talk life or 24 hours of mp3 or 7 hours of video

Apple really needs to upgrade their MacMini and iMac lines and there are plenty of Intel processors to choose from so they have at least two potential announcements later this year.
*



The iMac is based on the Macbook Pro logic board. Since the Macbook Pro line was just upgraded that usually means that the iMac will get an upgrade within the next three months. Expect a faster Core 2 Duo processor, a faster frontside bus due to the Intel Santa Rosa chipset, and an upgrade to the nVidia 8600 graphics chip. Chances are also good that the iMac will get LED based backlighting for its LCD display.

Many people are also looking for upgraded Apple displays after OS X 10.5 ship. 10.5 will get a "resolution independence" feature that will allow very high pixel density displays without having on screen type reduced to a size that requires a magnifying glass to read.

linrom
Inflation Machine Busy at Work

SHENZHEN, China — Persistent labor shortages at hundreds of Chinese factories have led experts to conclude that the economy is undergoing a profound change that will ripple through the global market for manufactured goods.

The shortage of workers is pushing up wages and swelling the ranks of the country's middle class, and it could make Chinese-made products less of a bargain worldwide.

Link

Another news noise story to make you believe in the inflation racket....so sorry. Just like they made you feel sorry for poor Japanese who were supposedly suffering from deflation all this time, except now they are taking wheel barrows full of cash to the banks and have no debt.

Ok, I am a believer in Kontratieff cycle, but, when did inflation cycles take off with such high debt levels.
Jetlag
QUOTE(linrom @ Jun 18 2007, 11:24 AM)
Inflation Machine Busy at Work

SHENZHEN, China — Persistent labor shortages at hundreds of Chinese factories have led experts to conclude that the economy is undergoing a profound change that will ripple through the global market for manufactured goods.

The shortage of workers is pushing up wages and swelling the ranks of the country's middle class, and it could make Chinese-made products less of a bargain worldwide.

Link

Another news noise story to make you believe in the inflation racket....so sorry. Just like they made you feel sorry for poor Japanese who were supposedly suffering from deflation all this time, except now they are taking wheel barrows full of cash to the banks and have no debt.

Ok, I am a believer in Kontratieff cycle, but, when did inflation cycles take off with such high debt levels.
*



More anecdotal evidence of "no inflation".

Why work when you're making more money on the Shank High shlock market?
dogsie
QUOTE(linrom @ Jun 18 2007, 12:24 PM)
Inflation Machine Busy at Work

SHENZHEN, China — Persistent labor shortages at hundreds of Chinese factories have led experts to conclude that the economy is undergoing a profound change that will ripple through the global market for manufactured goods.

The shortage of workers is pushing up wages and swelling the ranks of the country's middle class, and it could make Chinese-made products less of a bargain worldwide.

Link

Another news noise story to make you believe in the inflation racket....so sorry. Just like they made you feel sorry for poor Japanese who were supposedly suffering from deflation all this time, except now they are taking wheel barrows full of cash to the banks and have no debt.

Ok, I am a believer in Kontratieff cycle, but, when did inflation cycles take off with such high debt levels.
*


From that same article:

Wages at larger factories operated on behalf of multinationals — which are typically $100 to $200 a month — are also on the rise.

That is a pretty low base from which to complain about higher labour costs.
Speakeasy
Angel Cabrera, US Open champ from Argentina. Anyone know who is the big dog in golf equipment in Argentina? Made birdie on the first-ever USGA 300 yard par 3. Hits the ball a ton.
user posted image

Meanwhile, Earl is easin' on up. 73 looks to be the next target to me.

user posted image
Jetlag
QUOTE(dogsie @ Jun 18 2007, 11:33 AM)
QUOTE(linrom @ Jun 18 2007, 12:24 PM)
Inflation Machine Busy at Work

SHENZHEN, China — Persistent labor shortages at hundreds of Chinese factories have led experts to conclude that the economy is undergoing a profound change that will ripple through the global market for manufactured goods.

The shortage of workers is pushing up wages and swelling the ranks of the country's middle class, and it could make Chinese-made products less of a bargain worldwide.

Link

Another news noise story to make you believe in the inflation racket....so sorry. Just like they made you feel sorry for poor Japanese who were supposedly suffering from deflation all this time, except now they are taking wheel barrows full of cash to the banks and have no debt.

Ok, I am a believer in Kontratieff cycle, but, when did inflation cycles take off with such high debt levels.
*


From that same article:

Wages at larger factories operated on behalf of multinationals — which are typically $100 to $200 a month — are also on the rise.

That is a pretty low base from which to complain about higher labour costs.
*



If they doubled they would be more expensive than eastern europe.
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