http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

A selloff to start the week but the action isn't toooo bearish thanks to buyers sifting through the rubble. All Ords currently -0.9% with IT the only green sector, +0.6%. Property Trusts is getting a well deserved drubbing, -2.5% and Utilities is the next reddest, -1.3%.

In the miners, BHP -1.3% and RIO -0.7% on high volume for this time of day. The golds are fairly quiet: Newcrest +1.3% and Newmont -1.3%.

Oils are down on light volume: Woodside -0.7% and Santos -0.1%.

A fairly bearish day with a failed attempt to pull out of the doldrums. All Ords closed -0.8% with a few sectors closing down a percent or more. Property Trusts continued to lead the way in that respect, -2.4% followed by Healthcare -1.4% and Utilities, -1.1%. IT was the only green, +0.7%.

Very little change in the miners from the am post: BHP -1.2%, RIO -0.4%, Newcrest +1.3% and Newmont -1.5%.

In the oils, Santos managed a bounce, +0.8% but Woodside dwindled away to close -1.1%.

Over in Asia, China plunged again, -3.7% with most bourses down to some degree. Taiwan was an exception, +1.4%.

UK/Europe opens down:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

China's Stocks Tumble After Zhou Warns of Possible Bubble

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks plunged by the most in three weeks to a two-week low in volatile trade after central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said shares may be overvalued and he can't rule out raising interest rates.

A government move to triple the tax on share trading last month prompted the benchmark to plummet as much as 22 percent in five days. A lack of new tightening measures helped the index to rebound from the rout in less than two weeks.

``We're not sure whether there's a clear bubble but we worry'' that shares are priced too high compared with earnings, Zhou told reporters in Basel, Switzerland, where he attended a meeting of central bankers over the weekend.

``We don't rule out further rate increases if necessary,'' and inflation remains a concern, Zhou said.

German Consumer Confidence Increases to 6-Month High

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- German consumer confidence rose to a six-month high, led by an increased willingness among consumers to boost their spending.

GfK AG's confidence index for July, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, rose to 8.4 from 7.4 in June, the Nuremberg- based market-research company said today.

Hornbach Holding AG, Germany's fourth-largest home- improvement retailer, last month said full-year profit more than doubled as consumers spent more money on their homes. Hawesko Holding AG, Germany's biggest wine seller, said June 17 sales rose almost 10 percent from a year earlier in 2007's first five months.

The subprime mess started to roll heads some time ago, now the rate is picking up, the guillotine is oiled and ready to continue chopping away at an increasing pace.

"Queen's Walk Investment Ltd., a fund run by London-based Cheyne Capital Management Ltd. that buys the riskiest portions of bonds backed by mortgages, said it made a net loss of 67.7 million euros ($91 million) in the year ending March 31."
"`We are disappointed with the performance,'' "
"As U.S. home-loan defaults rise, bondholders stand to lose as much as $75 billion on subprime-mortgage securities, according to an April estimate from Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's largest bond fund. Investors in all mortgage bonds will probably take about $100 billion in losses, according to a March report from Citigroup Inc. bond analysts."

What about the 100x leveraged hedgies? how much do they stand to lose from a 100 bil notional loss? Trillions and trillions of CDO's on the brink.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...lSEY&refer=home

WSE Pro subscribers-

Housing Set for Death Plunge-

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=1266

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Looks like Wall Street is set to open higher this morning. Who would have thought after all these years that Ivan Pavlov would still have such an enormous influence over trader's actions.

Oil down a BIG 1.4 this morning.

OIH doing a nice 1.82 gap down.

Closed a few points above the 50 dma..

Wow! The S&P closed below the 50dma for the first time in 3 months and not a soul in IDS yet.

This is going to get real interesting by 2:30pm today.

DJ Fed Accepts $7.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $7.25 Bln
Total submitted: $34.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.317 Bln
Total submitted: $10.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.23%
Weighted Average: 5.24%
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.16%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.197 Bln
Total submitted: $14.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5%
Weighted Average: 5.01%
High-rate submitted: 5.04%
Low-rate submitted: 4.85%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.736 Bln
Total submitted: $9.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.24%
Weighted Average: 5.25%
High-rate submitted: 5.25%
Low-rate submitted: 5.18%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Forex points to some heavy de-leveraging last evening, stopped momentarily by the start of European trading.

Could today be the day?

Black Monday II?

The bullies are thumping their chests and the bears are cowering in fear. I've never seen it this bad, and that fits perfectly with the long term data in the last WSE Pro long term update, which no one gives any credence to, apparently. Outside of Shorty being Shorty, how many outright bears have been seen around here lately?

Most Important Signal In A Generation

May Existing- Home Sales Show Market is Under Performing

WASHINGTON, June 25, 2007 -

Existing-home sales were essentially unchanged in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – eased by 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.99 million units in May from an upwardly revised pace of 6.01 million in April, and are 10.3 percent below the 6.68 million-unit level in May 2006.

NAR

Shorty has not been right since 2002 and we have an EOQ this Friday.

Long the NDX from close Friday... very confident in position...
Very short term trade...

[attachmentid=84846]

GOOG exploding into new highs.

Short term trade only....

[attachmentid=84847]

One day these will fail.. just not yet.

Abnormally high (and desperate) index blasts, rippling across most sectors.

Bully screams: "Look at my xxxx! Look!"

CNBS shills saying housing data pretty good, it will take awhile to work off inventory, but not a bubble.

The bounces off support for the SPX seem to be getting weaker with fewer participants.

This Xxxx??

[attachmentid=84848]

I think LeeWhee was saying that XBD might be the tell. The banksters are holding it up for now. Maybe by the end of the day????

[attachmentid=84849]

From the BIS, maybe the big boys are getting nervous.

BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:02am BST 25/06/2007



The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cncredit125.xml

Just about the only respectable voices these days are the BIS, ECB, & SNB. No coincidence they're all based in non-Anglo Continenal Europe.

IYR still bleeding. Is the top in?

Down over 18% from the highs.
I would have to say it's some form of a top. Now, is it a short term, intermediate term or long term top?

another great day to be long.

Your method of holding your nose and buying seems to be working...

[attachmentid=84853]

Works well until you catch a cold

Any bear that has tried shorting this market has been whiplashed. This week is suspect due to end of the quarter window dressing.
The markets are under distribution and the SP500 broke the 50dma Fri. The top looks like its in. This bear is thumping his chest. The only question is when the psychology changes. Get the short lists ready to go!

i have seen that term 'suspect' on about 50 different bear blogs over the last 2 years. i mean i agree it is suspect but that down not make one money. i paid a shrink once to help me trade better and it helped.

Got 5 GOOG AUG puts atm just now ... may not be the top, but close.

iWaiting for iPuts on iApple iSoon.

i have heard that many times ... as markets and stocks moved higher that they are under distribution. as price moves HIGHER that is buying not selling.

IRX just took off

Actually I was using IAI as the proxy for the borkers. It is thinly-traded but the l/t pattern on the chart is very clear-cut. Also, IAI is a broader measure of the finagler complex, is not top-heavy with just a handful of names and also includes borker enablers like CME and NYX.

Another reason to focus on the borker group is because the IAI has had an excellent correlation with SPX tops over the past few years. The SPX and IAI have topped within days of each other in Mar04, Mar05, May06 and Feb07---sometimes on the exact same day.

This close correlation has not been seen with other sectors like financials, energy, retail, submerging, healthcare, tech, futilities, etc. The only other sector that has similar correlation has been materials.

This makes sense since the Materials and Borkers have been among the market-leading sectors since 2002-2003.

Watch 55.50-56.00 on IAI. That's the key level. It dipped below on Friday but is now gapping up today and right at 56.00. A move below last Friday's low around 55.20 would be most unwelcome for borker bullies.

The borkers appear to be building a top here, but they might not be done yet. However the rally off the March low has been exceptionally choppy.

On the daily chart, note how the IAI "consolidated" for six weeks in a range between 56-58ish before waterfalling down to 50 (-14%) in the Feb/Mar selloff. It sure looked like the borkers were going to break UP back in Feb, but the opposite occurred. Now they look like they are going to break DOWN. Hmmmm.......

So the general vicinity of 56 is VERY key here. And, of course, that's EXACTLY where it's trading today.

Perhaps the borkers do a "mirror image" of Feb/Mar here in Jun/Jul and, instead of waterfalling down, they boner up to a top in mid-July or so. Just a thought. If so, your first clue will be a stick-save here at 56 and then a b'out above 58ish.

Was it pavlov?

Dip = Buy
DIP = BUY

repeat after me, BUY THE DIP!

There is still a subsidies on TNX unless it trade over 6% nothing has changed

no but maybe i should have seen him, lol.

every trade had been going against me. WS is a big head game and to make money one better not read the head lies.

It looks like the Wise guys , I mean Smart guys are taking J6P to the cleaners again.

Please excuse a newbie.

There are 5-6 distribution days in the past 3 weeks on all the major indexes. That means the markets are under distribution. It does not mean the rally has ended. It simply means the selling pressure is much greater than the buying. When distribution starts building up, it's a signal to be careful. Corrections can start like this. There has not been this much distribution since the rally began in August.

100 point boner and AMZN is down and i still have those puts !!

That's not true either, and it's overly simplistic to say that. It's both buying and selling. The shape of the averages and the loss of longer term momentum suggests that the Street is using strength to distribute. With a buy all dips strategy, I could eventually buy the last dip and find myself suddenly staring up out of a very deep hole. Markets are extremely unforgiving when they finally break.

If I want to ignore the signs of top building that have begun to appear, I suppose I could do that, but by ridiculing those who are looking at all the data and reporting it in a way that doesn't fit the bullish view of things, I would be setting myself up for a very unpleasant "surprise."

I agree.
This action over the past 3 weeks looks like distribution to me.
We might be moving higher today, but over the past 2 days we are down overall.
Over the past 4 weeks we haven't made a new 52 week high yet. The list of stocks making new highs are shrinking. We've also seeing bigger volume on "down" days.

The Treasury is back to its more typical net borrowing mode this week after a couple weeks of the game of debt paydown musical chairs that pushed rates down.