aussiebear
Jun 26 2007, 01:20 AM
aussiebear
Jun 26 2007, 01:23 AM
aussiebear
Jun 26 2007, 01:34 AM

A bit of a tussle going on today. All Ords +0.1% with only small moves in the sectors. Utilities is up the most, +0.6% and at the other end of the spectrum is IT, -0.8%.
Miners all but stalled: BHP +0.1%, RIO -0.4% and in the golds, Newcrest +0.5% and Newmont -0.7%.
The oil sector is showing -0.2% but both the majors are down much more: Woodside -1.1% and Santos -1.2%.
aussiebear
Jun 26 2007, 01:38 AM
Hungarian Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Main Rate June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary's central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate, the European Union's highest, for the first time since 2005 after inflation slowed.
Policy makers led by President Andras Simor cut the two- week deposit rate a quarter-point to 7.75 percent after holding it since October. A leveling-out of wage growth also persuaded rate setters to lower borrowing costs, Simor said.
Hungary's annual inflation rate has quadrupled in the past year as Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany's government raised taxes and utility bills. Inflation excluding food and energy prices slowed for a second month in May, and an easing of pressures in the labor market reduced concern that prices would rise faster than the inflation target in the medium-term.
----------------
Romanian Central Bank Cut Interest Rate a Fourth Time June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Romania's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter point, its fourth cut this year, as inflation hovers near post-communist lows.
The Bucharest-based National Bank of Romania lowered its monetary policy rate to 7 percent from 7.25 percent today, it said in an e-mailed news release.
The central bank has cut its key rate at all four monetary policy meetings so far this year, bringing it down from 8.75 percent at the end of 2006. The bank has cited progress on fighting inflation, which has slowed to 3.8 percent in May from 4.9 percent in December, as a reason for all four cuts.
aussiebear
Jun 26 2007, 07:35 AM

A fairly ordered selloff for the rest of the day. All Ords closed -0.3% led by Property Trusts -1% with Energy and IT next in line, -0.9%. Three sectors finished up, Utilities +0.8%, Consumer Discretionary +0.5% and Healthcare +0.4%.
Miners trod water: BHP +0.4%, RIO -0.2%, Newcrest +0.1% and Newmont -0.7%.
Oils did a plunge: Woodside -1.1% and Santos -2.4%.
Asia mixed: Honkers, China and India up and the rest are down around -0.8%.
UK/Europe opened down but looks like they're working on a bounce:


http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 11:06 AM
Silent night, holy night,
M2M no posts in sight.
Something's not right,
With Jetlag up all night.
Ageka
Jun 26 2007, 11:18 AM
To me very innovative approach to value downpayments on property using Black and Scholes and treating it as an option
Even then the conclusion is that in South Africa they are asking 90% below entry price to get you to buy
Article by Vic the trader
http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/default/di...22-2012_2136237
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 11:26 AM
Good Morning!
Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!
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try2win
Jun 26 2007, 11:34 AM
bears got the ball in their court .... slam dunk it !
ChicagoBear
Jun 26 2007, 11:50 AM
Airborn and taking aim.
Wait for it...FOMC on Wed.
Watch reaction - first move is usually the wrong way.
try2win
Jun 26 2007, 11:54 AM
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Jun 26 2007, 06:50 AM)
Airborn and taking aim.
Wait for it...FOMC on Wed.
Watch reaction - first move is usually the wrong way.
for the last 2 years everytime the FED opens it mouth it is a pretty good boner .... for the most part.
ChicagoBear
Jun 26 2007, 12:24 PM
Here's the quick n' dirty bear case.
FOMC stopped raising rates on 8/8/06. Since then SP500 is up about 18% while the NAS is up 25%. All this based on the ASSUMPTION that the Fed's next move would be to lower rates. This has been the "Fed is Done" rally.
Today, hopes of a rate cut are into next year. The markets would appear to be overvalued having factored a rate cut that doesn't appear to be coming.
Also worth noting, the correction last summer started in response to the 5/10/06 FOMC meeting where they raised rates. They raised one more time on 6/29, but dovish wording in the statement lead the markets to believe they were done.
Relative to 5/9/06 (day before correction started), SP500 is up 13% and NAS is up 10%.
In other words, the markets corrected because 5% and 5.25% rates were too high. Today, rates have not changed, and the prospects for a cut keep moving further into the future. From this perspective, I think the markets are precariously overvalued.
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 12:31 PM
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Jun 26 2007, 08:24 AM)
Here's the quick n' dirty bear case.
FOMC stopped raising rates on 8/8/06. Since then SP500 is up about 18% while the NAS is up 25%. All this based on the ASSUMPTION that the Fed's next move would be to lower rates. This has been the "Fed is Done" rally.
Today, hopes of a rate cut are into next year. The markets would appear to be overvalued having factored a rate cut that doesn't appear to be coming.
Also worth noting, the correction last summer started in response to the 5/10/06 FOMC meeting where they raised rates. They raised one more time on 6/29, but dovish wording in the statement lead the markets to believe they were done.
Relative to 5/9/06 (day before correction started), SP500 is up 13% and NAS is up 10%.
In other words, the markets corrected because 5% and 5.25% rates were too high. Today, rates have not changed, and the prospects for a cut keep moving further into the future. From this perspective, I think the markets are precariously overvalued.
OK, to play a little debbil's advocate, and in view of this being a funnymental argument, you are talking about the R in the equation I/R=V. What about the I, the income (EPS). How much have they risen in the past year. Most conventional fartpolio managers are focused exclusively on the earnings of a stock, are they not.
And hey! What about all those share buybacks.
Not that funnymentals matter...
Peek Paper
Jun 26 2007, 12:34 PM
The oft-spoken BenSpan put, now unspoken, and assumed: The Bailout.
The Needed Bailout.
Risk gone bad ? Bailout.
Everything's too big to fail; nothing's too small to bail.
dogsie
Jun 26 2007, 12:51 PM
FOMC is on Thurs, wrapping up a 2 day meeting
FOMC
ChicagoBear
Jun 26 2007, 12:55 PM
[attachmentid=84904]
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 26 2007, 07:31 AM)
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Jun 26 2007, 08:24 AM)
Here's the quick n' dirty bear case.
FOMC stopped raising rates on 8/8/06. Since then SP500 is up about 18% while the NAS is up 25%. All this based on the ASSUMPTION that the Fed's next move would be to lower rates. This has been the "Fed is Done" rally.
Today, hopes of a rate cut are into next year. The markets would appear to be overvalued having factored a rate cut that doesn't appear to be coming.
Also worth noting, the correction last summer started in response to the 5/10/06 FOMC meeting where they raised rates. They raised one more time on 6/29, but dovish wording in the statement lead the markets to believe they were done.
Relative to 5/9/06 (day before correction started), SP500 is up 13% and NAS is up 10%.
In other words, the markets corrected because 5% and 5.25% rates were too high. Today, rates have not changed, and the prospects for a cut keep moving further into the future. From this perspective, I think the markets are precariously overvalued.
OK, to play a little debbil's advocate, and in view of this being a funnymental argument, you are talking about the R in the equation I/R=V. What about the I, the income (EPS). How much have they risen in the past year. Most conventional fartpolio managers are focused exclusively on the earnings of a stock, are they not.
And hey! What about all those share buybacks.
Not that funnymentals matter...

Good points. Sorry if the graph below is a little fuzzy. It's from Thompson Financial. It shows earnings peaked in Q3 and have dropped in Q4 and again in Q1. The estimates for Q2 are still lower.
But hey, you're right. Apparently these funnymentals don't matter.
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 01:08 PM
New podcast. I chat with LeeWhee who expounds on his technical trading methods, and why he thinks this may be the most important juncture in the market in 5 years.
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/WallStreetE...94/wse62507.mp3
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 01:41 PM
Very quiet around here.
BOOO!
potatohead
Jun 26 2007, 01:41 PM
DJ Fed Accepts $10.5 Bln In Overnight RPs
Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $10.5 Bln
Total submitted: $58.05 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.422 Bln
Total submitted: $18.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.3%
Weighted Average: 5.3%
High-rate submitted: 5.3%
Low-rate submitted: 5.21%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $8.078 Bln
Total submitted: $20.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.1%
Weighted Average: 5.1%
High-rate submitted: 5.1%
Low-rate submitted: 4.9%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $18.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 5.31%
Low-rate submitted: 5.23%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 01:49 PM
Is everyone glued to the E channel watching Paris Hilton being released from jail?
dogsie
Jun 26 2007, 02:02 PM
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development. This is 1.6 percent (±10.8%)* below the revised April rate of 930,000 and is 15.8 percent (±9.0%)
below the May 2006 estimate of 1,087,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2007 was $236,100; the average sales price was $313,000.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 536,000. This represents a supply
of 7.1 months at the current sales rate.
mmoy
Jun 26 2007, 02:06 PM
Lazy days of summer. It's going to get to near 100 degrees in our area which will make it the hottest day of the year.
I wonder if falling home sales prices are deflationary. I guess they are for the few buyers out there but they're deflationary for the sellers too.
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:09 PM
The futures market is everywhere today.
mmoy
Jun 26 2007, 02:11 PM
I have a coworker that just bought a condo in Austin and now needs to sell his condo here. My guess is that he shouldn't have too many problems with the sale as things are okay but not great in his price range.
dogsie
Jun 26 2007, 02:16 PM
QUOTE(mmoy @ Jun 26 2007, 10:11 AM)
I have a coworker that just bought a condo in Austin and now needs to sell his condo here. My guess is that he shouldn't have too many problems with the sale as things are okay but not great in his price range.
MMOY, where do you live?
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:21 PM
Picked up GOOG 510 puts at 5.8 today, thanks to a nice upgrade from Bernstein.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/an...E&cm_ite=NA
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:28 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 26 2007, 09:21 AM)
Picked up GOOG 510 puts at 5.8 today, thanks to a nice upgrade from Bernstein.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/an...E&cm_ite=NAThat was fast...
Just sold it at 6.8...
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:34 PM
Try,
Your AMZN puts are looking gooood! Great job on that short.
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 02:34 PM
I think mmoy is in southern New Hampshire.
Here in beautiful Shawinigan Quebec, today's forecast high is 80, then 78 tomorrow, then not above 68 through next Monday.
Br-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r!!!
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 02:35 PM
Gyad... with lows in the 40s this weekend. Guess we'll fire up the fireplace.
Jetlag
Jun 26 2007, 02:36 PM
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Jun 26 2007, 07:34 AM)
The oft-spoken BenSpan put, now unspoken, and assumed: The Bailout.
The
Needed Bailout.
Risk gone bad ? Bailout.
Everything's too big to fail; nothing's too small to bail.
If you had any money on a Bear Sturds Hedge fund what would you do by now?
4shzl
Jun 26 2007, 02:39 PM
BX cracks 31. Eyes front, and just pretend you don't hear anything . . .
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:39 PM
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 26 2007, 09:36 AM)
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Jun 26 2007, 07:34 AM)
The oft-spoken BenSpan put, now unspoken, and assumed: The Bailout.
The
Needed Bailout.
Risk gone bad ? Bailout.
Everything's too big to fail; nothing's too small to bail.
If you had any money on a Bear Sturds Hedge fund what would you do by now?
Probably looking for one of these.
Jimi
Jun 26 2007, 02:43 PM
potatohead
Jun 26 2007, 02:45 PM
IRX still moving higherrrrrrrrrrr
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:47 PM
Man...miss the buy on this at .90.
Someone here recommended this a few weeks back.
Looks like a breakout today.
RTQ 1.30.
Bungster
Jun 26 2007, 02:49 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 26 2007, 09:39 AM)
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 26 2007, 09:36 AM)
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Jun 26 2007, 07:34 AM)
The oft-spoken BenSpan put, now unspoken, and assumed: The Bailout.
The
Needed Bailout.
Risk gone bad ? Bailout.
Everything's too big to fail; nothing's too small to bail.
If you had any money on a Bear Sturds Hedge fund what would you do by now?
Probably looking for one of these.

Or in the market for one of these....
[attachmentid=84908]
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:49 PM
Not sure if anyone saw my sell post last week.
But i exited all my position at around 1.80 area.
My entry was in the .80 range.
Benny Hoo Hoo
Jun 26 2007, 02:52 PM
QUOTE(DrStool @ Jun 26 2007, 07:34 AM)
I think mmoy is in southern New Hampshire.
Here in beautiful Shawinigan Quebec, today's forecast high is 80, then 78 tomorrow, then not above 68 through next Monday.
Br-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r!!!
110 +/- every day for the next week or so here in beautiful Scottsdale, AZ!
Scottsdale Weather
linrom
Jun 26 2007, 02:53 PM
Homies are outperforming XAU. I guess so much for inflation hedges -- cash in the bank is a better inflation hedge?
[attachmentid=84910]
Jetlag
Jun 26 2007, 02:53 PM
For the nobody saw it coming department:
"Zhang Shibao covers 12 Chinese stocks and recommends investors buy all of them, even after they've more than tripled on average in the past year."
" James Liu, who manages a $441 million China equity fund at Singapore-based APS Asset Management, said he sees overly-bullish calls on Chinese stocks as a sign that the strongest gains are over. He now uses them as a contrarian signal, avoiding shares with a lot of buy recommendations.
His APS China A Share Fund is the second best-performing hedge fund in the world for the past 12 months, with a total return of 139 percent."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...7yCI&refer=home
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 02:54 PM
New low on NEM on this move.
All signs points to 36.....
Peek Paper
Jun 26 2007, 02:57 PM
OK bears ... this is your time.
Go out and take it !
I_Am_Madness
Jun 26 2007, 03:04 PM
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Jun 26 2007, 09:57 AM)
OK bears ... this is your time.
Go out and
take it !
WOHOOO!!
Who wants to be a hero!
LeeWhee
Jun 26 2007, 03:05 PM
QUOTE(I_Am_Madness @ Jun 26 2007, 07:54 AM)
New low on NEM on this move.
All signs points to 36.....
How about 34? That was the 2004-2005 double bottom.
If it goes below there, you can safely ASSume the goldies are toastastic.
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 03:10 PM
If it costs more to get it out of the ground than its price in the market, then whatever is in the ground ain't worth squat.
Speakeasy
Jun 26 2007, 03:11 PM
LeeWhee
Jun 26 2007, 03:15 PM
The borkers and materials sectors have been well-correlated to SPX tops over the past few years. Both (using IAI and XLB as proxies) are looking very craptastic right now. IAI has broken below the key $56 level (now at 54.83) and XLB has been painting uglee divergences since the Feb07 top. When the 50dayMA (now exactly at 40) gives way, it could open up a hellstorm to the southside. XLB trading at 40.10 right now.
DrStool
Jun 26 2007, 03:15 PM
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Jun 26 2007, 10:57 AM)
OK bears ... this is your time.
Go out and
take it !
You're at a pullback to support here. If bears are going to take it, it would be with a weak bounce from here. That would be the kiss of death.
Jimi
Jun 26 2007, 03:18 PM
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Jun 26 2007, 09:53 AM)
For the nobody saw it coming department:
"Zhang Shibao covers 12 Chinese stocks and recommends investors buy all of them, even after they've more than tripled on average in the past year."
" James Liu, who manages a $441 million China equity fund at Singapore-based APS Asset Management, said he sees overly-bullish calls on Chinese stocks as a sign that the strongest gains are over. He now uses them as a contrarian signal, avoiding shares with a lot of buy recommendations.
His APS China A Share Fund is the second best-performing hedge fund in the world for the past 12 months, with a total return of 139 percent."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...7yCI&refer=homeDid you know that "Zhang" is the Mandarin form of "Henry"?
And "Shibao" is the form for "Blodgett"....
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