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Full Version: Monthly Digger - July 2007
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
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Charmin
A number of years back I bought the precious metals fund PMPIX before I had left on a summer vacation with the family. I was kinda surprised later that the fund had actually gained a tad while I was gone and went on to rally into late fall. Actually, the years 2003, 2004 and 2005 did this.

If you look at the position of the current PMPIX fund, one may be able to assume that there is a stopping in the price at prior yearly support with some consolidation just above 36.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183175673.png

If this chart is any indication that sellers have exhausted themselves, then it may be safe to assume at some point they begin to cover.

In that case the almost forgotten stock NEM may have a bottom. I like to think it doesn't have to arrive at prior May bottoms to prove it.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183175857.png

Otherwise, HL looks like it's building cause above 7.50
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183176031.png

Keep up the good work.

bearvest
Triangle patterns:

I see a lot of triangles in the miners' charts.

Sometimes they're falling wedges.

Triangles, nevertheless, are continuation patterns. Thus, I believe that these triangles are correcting prior bullish moves.

NG has a possible breakout from a symmetrical triangle.

Maybe it's heading up to fill that gap or die at gap resistance
bearvest
GSS:

Possible triangle breakout.

However, it looks more like waves iii and iv of the 5th wave of an ending diagonal. An ending diagonal should be 5 waves with 3 hits on the lower trendline.

Thus, it could take a final trip down to 3.50.

It looks like an interesting bottom fish if it hits that level.

No matter what, the target, once this impulse down completes is 4.10 to 4.20 (waves 4 and 1 of the prior impulse).

If you haven't noticed it before, note how ending diagonals create Bullish divergence on MACD.

This is my favourite trading pattern. I'll enter a pilot position (about 20% of a full position ) at what I believe is wave v of 5 with a very tight stop below the lower trendline. If I'm stopped out, so be it.

If I'm right and the stock takes out the upper trendline, I'll take a full position, usually waiting and hoping for a backtest of the upper trendline.

In every case, the initial target, subject to continuing adjustment, is where the wedge began.

It's consistent with my philosophy to "buy high and sell higher".
bearvest
COT Report:

Some say this indicator is "an ancient relic".

None the less, it's pretty bullish.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1183145580.php
bearvest
NEM:

Looks like an ending diagonal.
bearvest
Hecla:

I call this stock "Hellcat". It has a chart pattern that defies logic.

Ordinarily, when a stock rises in a channel with constant overlaps, it's bearish and the pattern is a likely WXY, or a more complex pattern of ABC's.

So that's what I thought about HL--until it hit multi-year highs, taking out the 2003 highs in April.

Posted below is the "WRONG COUNT" chart. It may look like 5 waves up, but 4 overlaps 1. It's just not possible in wave 3.

Also posted below is the "INCREDIBLE RALLY" chart. It has 4 sets of 1/2 patterns signalling a host of 3rd of 3rds to follow.

The reason I call this the "incredible rally" is that 3rd waves are strong impulses.They don't usually start from a host of overlapping patterns.

I've posted my bullishness about selected silver stocks--SLW, HL, and CDE (bottoming), despite the smackdown in SILVER itself.

HL could be the leader of the leaders if that "incredible rally" chart is accurate.



Ageka
Montly stochs coming down oh so slowly same ole same as last week

Ageka
Weekly stochs staying down good boy

Ageka
Daily stochs down too

Ageka
I am looking at a low in july

My moodindicator being collectable coins on ebay germany is very low too smile.gif

dharma
ageka, i read your post on m/m and its how it is posting. i too have been trading futures since 79 and i moved over to the stock side after 88. i post to try and help folks. anyway, i always read your posts.
the harmonics bottom on my work july 12-18. most lose money @this. emotions play a big part in that and also not having studied the beast, leads to loses. having brokered and traded, i have come to the conclusion that finding a trend and taking a position and holding it, leads to the biggest profits. and its easier on the trader. constantly making decisions is a tough way to go. so, i am holding. yes the last year has been a trading range , but i believe it is about to end and new highs will be seen in 1st quarter of 08. dharma
Ageka
I have read the Investors Quotient by Jacob Berstein

Some people like to lose money because it is easier to tell to anybody else you lost a bundle then to tell somebody you made a bundle and face the envy
Emotions are the ennemy


It is allways wonderfull that you and I come to the same timing by different ways

Yes apart from my option sprees I also choose a side and buy and hold

I was trying to help goldcoin buyers by grading for free goldcoins ; nobody ever thanked me because they all expect a higher grade which they can buy from any of the 40 or so grading companies . I just stopped that ; if they want make belief they can go and buy it ph34r.gif

I asked for some computer help on that coinforum and notwithstanding there are at least three computer engineers nobody wanted to help .

I appreciate your posts very much

August
Ageka
I need some computerhelp

I want to connect a new XP pro laptop sitting next to a pentium on win98 SE
So that the laptop is the master and the other the slave
Programs should be executionable on the slave .

The only advise I got sofar is to install a router and ethernet card and ethernet cabled network and run pcanywhere or netmeeting which is build to operate your computer from the other side of the world ;
but they are sitting side by side .

Any computer specialists amongt you have any idea ?
pm if you want
thanks
Metamucil
Ageka, always appreciate your posts.

The 'mood' within the monthly coil is getting worse, as it approaches 20EMA support and an upside 'accident' is in the offing.

user posted image

AgentSmith
QUOTE(Ageka @ Jul 1 2007, 01:15 PM)
I need some computerhelp

I want to connect a new XP pro laptop sitting next to a pentium on win98 SE
So that the laptop is the master and the other the slave
Programs should be executionable on the slave .

The only advise I got sofar is to install a router and ethernet card and ethernet cabled network and run pcanywhere or netmeeting which is build to operate your computer from the other side of the world ;
but they are sitting side by side .

Any computer specialists amongt you have any idea ?
pm if you want
thanks
*



Ageka, what worked for me in the past is just using a simple "cross-over cable". You obviously need an ethernet card in each computer and then just connect the two directly with the cable, which is only a few bucks.
- Make sure they have the same WORKGROUP name.
- Enable File and Printer Sharing for Microsoft Networks.
- Enable or add the right network protocol (under LAN, add a new protocol if you don't already have it, I believe simple NetBeui will do but maybe ipx / tcp).

Then under network neighborhood you should see the name of the other computer listed and be able to browse whatever you've shared.

(Sometimes different OS don't behave well, I can't remember which combo I ran into problems with...but it's likely win9598 with 2yk or above).

Before, in order to control my computer at work from home, I used simple Microsoft 'Remote Desktop Connection' which is installed on all newer computers - older computers you just have to download/install it. It was a beautiful thing..

I'm writing this from memory and it's been about 2 years since I've hooked up my older computer - so no guarantees.

Hope it works out!
Ageka
Thank you AgentSmith it is worth trying,
the older computer does not have an ethernet card
but since I concluded a hard wired network is so much faster it looks
like a good starting point
AgentSmith
QUOTE(Ageka @ Jul 2 2007, 10:38 AM)
Thank you AgentSmith it is worth trying,
the older computer does not have an ethernet card
but since I concluded a hard wired network is so much faster it looks
like a good starting point
*



No probs for the always honorable Ageka. Feel free to post/pm your progesss and I will gladly help if able too. As I mentioned I will be back in the US in a month and can review my setup back home.

I too enjoyed Sevens' presence and coin discussions. He too was a gentleman!!

L'argent Silver
dharma
the subprime fiasco, isnt lost on the dollar, which is being flushed down the toilet. this is not being lost on the metals. dharma
Private Skidmark
Yeah. Looks like Uncle Buck called in sick. Mild strain of ebola. ph34r.gif

I am tempted to take positions here. SLW and HL are calling me.
Private Skidmark
U-G-L-Y.

Unless, that is, certain porcine operators paint the double bottom and buy time.
Private Skidmark
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Jul 2 2007, 12:20 PM)
U-G-L-Y.

Unless, that is, certain porcine operators paint the double bottom and buy time.
*



On the other hand, maybe this isn't any different from the declining wedges BV has posted. unsure.gif
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
I sold AGT for profit a while ago and was waiting to get back in but I didn't expect it to retrace 30% or so in one day. They confirmed a nice strike. Oh, well such is a bull market.
Metamucil
Pick 'n shovel JOYG looking very strong. HUI about 4 points from a breakout. GLD successfully tested support.

user posted image
hedonicprocto
Precisely what I was thinking and a reason for caution IMO
The market hass been on weak dollar steroids: the one thing the US could nt tolerate here IMO would be a stronger currerncy
How about GOLD?
Intitally will get wahcked till the dollar down gold up crowd throws in the towel IMO

BV: you dont see a falling wedge in the USD?


QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Jul 2 2007, 12:42 PM)
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Jul 2 2007, 12:20 PM)
U-G-L-Y.

Unless, that is, certain porcine operators paint the double bottom and buy time.
*



On the other hand, maybe this isn't any different from the declining wedges BV has posted. unsure.gif
*


dharma
the falling wedge in the dollar is old news. today we tested the lows of

the falling wedge, if it doesnt hold then we test the long term support.
interesting perspective on the inflation machine.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/oroborean063007.html
dharma
bearvest
The INDICES are readying to break out of their triangles:
bearvest
QUOTE(dharma @ Jul 2 2007, 11:19 PM)
the falling wedge in the dollar is old news. today we tested the lows of

the falling wedge, if it doesnt hold then we test the long term support.

*



The falling wedge that I see on the weekly gives me longer term concern as a metals bull.

The Dollar impulsed up in all of 2005, and has been correcting since.

The correction is nearing its terminal stage. It looks like a 3-3-5 flat.

If the falling wedge is the "C" Wave of the correction, the measured move is to the point of origin at 87 or so.

However, as the pattern over the last year and a half is corrective, the trend is up and the next move is an impulse up. Impulses are always followed by impulses after the obligatory correction.
bearvest
Dollar:

Here's my concern about the Dollar.

We've had a huge impulse down.

Current action seems to be a "B" wave in an abc correction of that huge impulse.

When it ends, there should be a multi-month "C" wave up, lasting a year or more terminating between 92.50 and 100.
Charmin
I think the dollar will no longer exist by the time Ben Bernanke leaves office in 2018, but I'm willing to loose my opinion.

The SLV chart has now lined itself up with some preliminary support from December 2006. If it can't be broken down much further, then shorts may realize supply is exhausting itself and it has stopping action at that level.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183438429.png
Charmin
RGLD

I'm going to assume shorts begin to cover now at support

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183439402.png
Charmin
SA nice reaction when it backed up to support

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183439521.png
Charmin
SLW appears to be absorption at the resistance area of 12. It has cause now. It may be time to breakout. I would normally buy what appears to be absorption at a resistance area in anticipation of the breakout.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183439674.png
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
QUOTE(bearvest @ Jul 2 2007, 09:03 PM)
QUOTE(dharma @ Jul 2 2007, 11:19 PM)
the falling wedge in the dollar is old news. today we tested the lows of

the falling wedge, if it doesnt hold then we test the long term support.

*



The falling wedge that I see on the weekly gives me longer term concern as a metals bull.

The Dollar impulsed up in all of 2005, and has been correcting since.

The correction is nearing its terminal stage. It looks like a 3-3-5 flat.

If the falling wedge is the "C" Wave of the correction, the measured move is to the point of origin at 87 or so.

However, as the pattern over the last year and a half is corrective, the trend is up and the next move is an impulse up. Impulses are always followed by impulses after the obligatory correction.
*


Looks like a massive head and shoulders approaching the neckline and the whole thing is closer to inverting to the low 70s than recovering. Not to speak of the fundamentals plus gold would have to stop gaining.
dharma
bv, i was using the count that you suggest, but i have lost confidence in it. it will be invalid should the 80 lows on the dollar break. the h&s above w/ a double neck line seems more appropriate. anyway time will show the way.
05-06 both the dollar and gold went up. they do have inverse correlation, but not 100% of the time. dharma
Black Prince
NJMC has a big strike.
bearvest
QUOTE(Charmin @ Jul 3 2007, 01:15 AM)
SLW appears to be absorption at the resistance area of 12.  It has cause now.  It may be time to breakout.  I would normally buy what appears to be absorption at a resistance area in anticipation of the breakout.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183439674.png
*



SLW has a very bullish chart on the TSX:
bearvest
Some bullish TSX charts:

Cumberland and Eldorado are inter-listed.

The huge prior MACD's indicate that they were wave 3 and the correction was a 4th wave.
bearvest
Here's another TSX mover.

Sherritt is viewed askance by the U.S. administration as it is active in nickle mining interests in Cuba.

At one time it had been inter-listed.
bearvest
Gold:

The magic number seems to be 665.90.

On the daily, it would overlap the point of origin of the last wave down.

The P&F also places resistance at 665 with a bullish breakout at 670.
bearvest
Canadian miners:

Here are a couple more that broke out of triangles on July 4th.
bearvest
Anvil:

In mid-June the investment committee of my investment club followed my recommendation to switch out of a uranium stock (PDN.TO). to AVM.TO.

We had a bad entry near the top of wave 3. As expected, our stop, just below 16.70 (wave 1) was not overlapped.

It looks to be entering wave 5 with an inverted head and shoulders pattern or a possible cup and handle pattern.
dharma
anyone else have sa! what a rocket launch! dharma
Ander
Great day today, HUI up on a down day for gold, etc.

Just waiting...eventually this correction will end.
Ander
SLW is pennies from its all time highs. Looks VERY good.
Private Skidmark
CDE just blasted off. I couldn't resist jumping into the orgy. I may account for 2 points on the HUI today. biggrin.gif I hope I have some company here. Picked up more SLW, HL, RGLD, GG, NXG, and TRE. TRE has yet to see any rebound whatsoever and will probably crater if it cracks $4.50 by much. GSS also doing nicely today.
Charmin
Happy days for an AEM break of supply line today

I think ANO has a price pivot at 2.52 as it consolidates into an apex
Charmin
AEM at the 34 retest area appears to have definitely been a stopping point for supply

mark it on your charts
Todd
That was the mother of all bullish divergences.
Charmin
GSS can be marked in the 3.60 area for stopping action and it's up to 4 now.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183687143.png

EGO jumps resistance

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183687309.png
Charmin
NSU saucer bottom

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1183689412.png
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