http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Pretty much another non-event day. All Ords +0.5% with Healthcare leading, +1.1% followed by Energy +1%. IT is down the most, -0.5%.

Not a bad one for the miners: BHP +0.7%, RIO +0.8%, Zinifex on a run, +3.2%. In the golds, Newmont flat and Newcrest +2.7%.

Oils showing signs of life: Woodside +1.7% and Santos +0.9%.

I enjoyed the Fourth. Fireworks, roudy Texas folk. Beer (I don't drink anymore, but it's interesting to watch those that do).

Most 4th of July's for the rest of the decade won't be this much fun. Sad to say.

Not raining on the parade ...

Just speaking the truth.

The Press has Al Queda reduced to a group of flaming British NHS doctors in lab coats, who could probably kill more people with vials of potassium chloride than with car bombs filled to the roof with gas cans.

We have had enough sicko-psycho perverts in American medical history to have that base covered 10 times over. You can't get a Tylenol without a chain of custody data trail.

The reality of Who we are beholden to, and Who owns the world's 437 Trillion Derivative Tower, remains a Don Coxe Page 16 item.

I wish Ron Paul could escape us from this. But there is no repair. Every bullish day just delays the inevitable bearishness to follow. Just vote for the idiot who can keep this floating the longest.

My bet's on Billary.

edit - I am seriously thinking about pulling my options account. I fear insolvency of my broker more than losing my spec account on a bet-gone-sour. Of course, Money Markets and virtually every other paltry interest-bearing account on the Face of The Earth is tied, in one shape or form, to a derivative dung heap.

note to self - stockpile gold, water, land ...

and gas cans.

Maybe those psycho docs across the pond knew what they were doing, after all.

Got one of those 'orrible flu type viruses so I've spent most the day in bed. My head is a bit woolly so if I post something outrageous just ignore it

Looks like the bulls got a grip later in the day. All Ords finished +0.9% but not all sectors joined in. The top runners were Materials +1.8% and Energy +1.3% with three reds, IT being down the most, -0.6%.

Big moves on the two major miners: BHP +1.9% and RIO +2.2%. In the golds, Newcrest put on a respectable +2.4% and Newmont closed -0.9%.

Oils also did well: Woodside +2.2% and Santos +1.9%.

Over in Asia, China had a massive fall, -5.3%, Taiwan +0.9% and the rest have minor gains or losses.

Over to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

China's Stocks Slide Most in a Month: World's Biggest Mover

July 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks plunged the most in a month as new share sales heightened concern that funds will be drained from existing equities and a state agency called on policy makers to take action to damp short-term speculation.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. were among the biggest contributors to today's decline.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, slumped 206.15, or 5.5 percent, to close at 3537.44, the biggest percentage move among markets included in global benchmarks. It's still up 73 percent this year, after more than doubling in 2006.

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Oil hits fresh 10-month high ahead of US stocks data UPDATE

Thu, Jul 5 2007, 10:01 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

(Recasts, updates prices)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil rallied to a fresh 10 month high near 74 usd a barrel, with traders awaiting the release of a US inventory report expected to show crude stocks fell last week as refiners ramped up gasoline production.

Although the report is also expected to show gasoline stocks rose slightly last week, analysts say the rise might not be enough to ease the market's concerns over US fuel supplies.

"Gasoline is still in short supply... that's giving the market lots of support," said CMC Markets analyst Andy Henderson, adding high demand for the motor fuel in the US is another factor keeping the market underpinned.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...ff-b7ad2d3f2901

I think that a lot of stoolies are already well-positioned for this. The questions is whether to book profits before the report or just wait given that the trend is your friend.

Gold has been perky for a few days holding $450 though we didn't get the usual massive spike higher on this bounce. I'm not holding any gold stocks at the moment but I am watching.

$74 oil is pretty stunning to me.

BOE raised rates to 5.75% this morning as expected.

Should be interesting to see how the dollar responds.

There's bullish news out there in the form of mergers and lower layoff information from Challenger.

The bearish news is higher oil prices, consumers getting tapped out, CDO problems.

Regarding the discussion about fast cars last night: you don't want to take your souped up hybrid to Virginia, home of the $3550 speeding ticket.

Virginia rolls out the $3,550 speeding ticket

In Virginia, new laws go on the books next week aimed at curbing highway speeding and drinking and driving. Virginia motorists convicted of traffic violations will face a new, multi-year tax beginning July 1 with assessments of up to $3,000 in addition to an annual point tax that tops out at $700 a year for as long as the points remain.

The new so-called "driver responsibility tax" was slipped into the state's massive transportation funding bill by state Del. David B. Albo (R-Springfield). It was signed into law by Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in April to pay for more than $1 billion in state road improvements.

Legislators like Albo and Del. Thomas D. Rust (R-Fairfax), the co-sponsor of the fee legislation, say that as much as $65 million to $120 million will be raised annually to cover roadway improvements and other maintenance issues like pothole repair, snow-plowing and grass-mowing.

----------------------------------------------

One more way for states to take a bite out of motorists. I wonder if traffic cops are given a cut of the fines.

I drive I-95 between Richmond and Arlington several times a year, and I look forward to seeing this new law enforced. In fact, they should give some of these speeders jail time.

Plus 10 yr bond getting nailed

[attachmentid=85317]



BX found an outlet to piss all the new investors money away. The time to buy hotels was in 1994-1995.

Or, TNX gapped up.

Booked profits on CREE and AAPL. Made about $5.25 on the trade. I think that it's headed for $150 but I think that it needs to retest the BO point.

Looks like I was early on selling. Up another buck. Oh well.

Sure enough, most hotel companies jumped 8-9% on news of Hilton buyout. I don't think that anyone here realizes what a shorting opportunity this is. There is a reason why Donald Trump went bankrupt several times.

Do you have any ticker symbols? I generally don't know the companies and wouldn't mind taking a look at a few charts.

MAR, Marriott, its a classic. It was already in the process of collapse and now this gift.

Went to 100% cash. Made a decent chunk of change this morning and just decided to book it and relax for a few days.

I expect the indexes will finish the day .5% higher now that I'm out.

BTW, had a nice profit in NVDA after only a few days. I still have a bullish bias but a little rest and relaxation and a very busy schedule next week makes for a good time to go to cash.

I think this says it all........

[attachmentid=85318]

How does 3100 on the COMPQ by the end of the year sound now that we have gone over the .382 retracement line? Only a matter of time.

No more corrections....ever .....maybe.. ..but I'm still looking for a little pullback here...

If we are going higher here... the SPX is going to have to find religion...

[attachmentid=85319]

[attachmentid=85320]

Maybe, but, I am upgrading China to CRASH Warning now that it collapsed -5% overnight. China and US markets tend to move in tandem, the rest of the world does not matter.

My thesis is that traders that were short and went on vacation will come back Monday and cover like mad. Those pushes up on low volume can be dangerous when the volume comes back in. I guess that I should be glad that I bailed out as my energy longs would have been torched even as my tech longs were going up.

ORCL, GOOG, CSCO, IBM, AAPL looking good on my streamer right now.

My $.02, for the Comp to reach those heights would require a significant improvement in breadth, no sign of it yet, the divergence is huge and growing. Valuations in some big caps are approaching 00 type levels. No killer applications to reverse a steady loss of consumer interest in tech is seen. This move smells of distribution.

Who are these mythical traders that go balls-to-wall short and then take a week-long vacation?

The bigcrap tech names that appear to be the flavors of the month right now have some of the lowest days-to-cover ratios among all SP500 names. Far from a short squeeze, this could easily transform into a long squeeze once the frivolities come to a close.

Hang 'em out to dry!


Traders Bought Options Just Hours Before Hilton Deal NewsLast update: 7/5/2007 10:12:38 AM
By Mohammed Hadi
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--News that Hilton Hotels Corp. (HLT) agreed to be bought by Blackstone Group (BX) was preceded by heavy trading in call options that have already yielded massive profits for their holders. But the timing and intensity of the trading has some option traders crying foul - arguing that this is just the latest in a series of deals that has been preceded by potentially illegal insider trading. Officials at Hilton and Blackstone were not immediately available to comment. Nearly 22,000 call options on Hilton changed hands in the half session Tuesday before the company said Blackstone will buy it for $47.50 a share. That compared with an average daily volume in June of just under 2,900 call options. The buying was most concentrated, according to data from TradeAlert.com in calls that convey the right to pay $40 for Hilton by late August. Traders also bought calls that give them the right to own Hilton shares for $35 in the next three weeks. With Hilton shares rising $9.55, or 26.4%, to $45.59, the August $40 calls surged $5.05, to $5.90, a gain of nearly 600%. According to TradeAlert, about 5,200 positions in the August $40 call options were opened on Tuesday - representing 520,000 shares of stock. The gains in those positions Thursday amount to about $2.6 million.

Where does one get a chart of the Shanghai A shares?
I think it is down around 10% from the high now.

I've been touting the techsters since last fall since, in my work, the Nardsaq had higher targets left to tag. It has taken longer than I thought, but we are at those levels right now.

The only question in my mind is whether the crooks will foment a brief, but effective, upside capitulation taking the Q-balls to ultimate resistance in the 51ish range and the Nardsaq itself to the top of the bubble-neckline from 99/00 at 2875-2925. That's about 6-8% higher.

Note that in Barron's Big Money Poll (money manglers) last October, guess which sector was considered to be the biggest laggard for the following 6-12 months? That's right, Technology. 42% of the money manglers cited technology as a turd for the next year.

Now that the techsters have moved up, guess which sector was touted in the May07 Big Money Poll as the best group for the next 6-12 months? You guessed it, Technology. 44% of the money manglers cited technology as the top sector for the next year. No other sector came close.

Funny how that works.

Now we're getting all the jimbo-come-latelys joining the party:

"Growth stocks are back! That's the story behind the tech rally. AAPL, RIMM and GOOG are all at new highs. Now that's leadership!"---Jimbo Krammer, 7/5/07

"Can tech pick up slack in the stock market?"---WSJ, 7/5/07

"Traders piling into bigcrap tech."---Rev Shark, 7/5/07

Almost 40% of the gains in the NDX over the past few months can be attributed to just three stocks. You guessed it: AAPL, RIMM, GOOG.

Why was I bullish on the techsters in Oct when the money manglers were morose? Why am I very cautious on them now in July while the money manglers are wildly optimistic? Da chartz.

This homie appears to have a major problem, Down another 2% today.

most marriots are booked solid... how was it on the verge of collapse ? lol
i had booked marriot and the dates i had to be flexible on as i had suggested a couple ....and all booked, in 5 years MAR could be worth a LOT more. just like real estate. buy now because land is not being created especailly in town...

The HLT options scam actually started the week prior, on 6/27.

But the $$$ represented by the options scammers are chicken feed compared to the HLT deal itself.

No doubt the SEC will pounce on a few of the "usual suspects", the small-time crooks that flit around the periphery of these mega Fall Street deals.

But they won't be touching the real criminals, the private equity players themselves who are lining their pockets with billions and will be leaving pension funds, et al, holding the bag when these deals blow sky-high in the years to come.

great buying opp is coming for a trade.

Thanks LW. Once again brilliant analysis.

why does every deal have to " blow up " ?? Because of human greed ?

I used to do that. Back in 2001 and 2002. Absolutely no fear back then.

Looks like the schwang is back today.

I've been on the long party for tech for quite some time. I think that I agreed with you on tech last year. But I would disagree on attributing it to only those three stocks.

INTC up about 20% this year.
ORCL up about 12% this year.
Dell up about 10% this year.

I think that you need to be selective with Tech and do like to look at the fundamental picture along with the technical picture.

BTW, CREE is up 40 to 50% which isn't too shabby.

Even that old dog CCMP has had an okay year.

Watch EEM and FXI for clues. They're still moving higher. The mo-mo birds don't trade the Shankhigh, they leave that fine investment vehicle to the local pai gow players.

I don't think that anyone would argue that there are huge numbers of people that
are 100% long and that don't think anything of it. That's your average corporate worker
that believes the LTBH mantra.

Why would it be so surprising to find bears with the opposite point of view? Maybe even on this board?

reverse launch in progress...

[attachmentid=85321]

This has the feel of those Thursdays with an 11:00 schwang and then a battle until around 2:30 before the next schwang. I guess most folks are at the beach today. Pretty quiet.

I'm looking at a couple of homebubblers for a countertrend trade, but they are still 10-15% away from what I would consider a low-risk buy point.

The BZH chart, on the other hand, has the distinctive taint of BK down the road.

Think some of these high-profile homebubblers won't have firm support at zero? Think again, girlfriend.

Unclear on the point you are making.

US automakers hit today on the sales report from Tuesday. GM down 3.5%,
F down abuot 2% and DCX down about 1.5%. The GM chart really looks horrible. That was some ramp the past few weeks.

By Joe Hutsko
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 2 hours, 5 minutes ago
Falling in lust with an expensive device like the iPhone sets owners up for a hard fall if it stops working. I know, because mine died after only four days into our relationship.

bits:

Why did my iPhone fail so soon? Apple’s Geniuses couldn’t say on the spot. But I think it had something to do with heat — my iPhone would get incredibly hot to the touch when plugged in and charging while I was on a long phone call. So hot I lived those first three days in constant fear that it would heat to the point of burning up.

So hot that I was tempted to put some raw egg in a foil cup and set it atop the iPhone to see if it would cook — or if not actually cook, turn opaque from the iPhone’s super-heated back surface. Describing this on my blog JOEyGADGET promoted one other iPhone owner to comment:

“Yep, mine seems hot but I don’t know if it’s too hot. Hotness is relative you know.” Agreed when discussing physical attraction, but when talking about physical touch, take my word for it, my original iPhone all but burned the skin on my hand.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19614050

Indecies now RED.......

Pissonme on CNBS saying HLT may mean REITs are undervalued.