http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

All Ords has pushed thru the apex of the upsloping triangle on the daily chart intraday but the action is looking a bit weak so the close will be important. At the moment the index is +0.3% with IT leading, +1.3% and Telecomms and Materials second in line, +1%. Utilities is down the most, -0.8%.

Most the miners are in the green: BHP +1.9%, RIO +2.5% and in the golds, Newmont +1.8%. Newcrest is going the other way, -1.6%.

In the oils, Woodside up a minor +0.2% and Santos +2.3%.

U.K. June Retail Sales Increase for a Second Month

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales rose for a second month in June on gains at department stores, a sign consumers have yet to feel the impact of five interest-rate increases.

Sales rose 0.2 percent after climbing 0.4 percent in May, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast an increase of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 33 predictions in a Bloomberg News survey.

Mortgage lending slowed in June and annual gains in money supply moderated to the weakest pace in three months, separate reports showed today.

VERY SERIOUS ACCUMULATION of Biopure shares continues:


[attachmentid=86090]


Technical chart pattern with bullish crossover of of 50 DMA should ring the BUY BUY BUY "bell". Money flow is positive.

The reason for accumulation may be a potential Malaysia deal in the works:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...172&tof=7&frt=1

Whoa, time to don the bull horns again. All Ords managed a new record closing high, +0.6% for the day. IT came in leader, +2.4% followed by Telecomms +1.5%. There were a few red sectors, Utilities -0.5%, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, both -0.2%.

Miners pretty much the same as the morning post: BHP +1.9%, RIO +2.5%, Newmont +2.1% and Newcrest +0.1%.

Ditto for the oils: Woodside +0.4% and Santos +2.5%.

Asia in bull mode: China and Sth Korea +2.4%, Taiwan +1.2% and Singers +0.9%.

Over to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Citigroup beat earnings by 11 cents this morning and I guess that's a pretty good report. Sounds like they don't have subprime CDOs in their portfolios.

Some mixed headline news on earnings this morning so there may be a battle today. Or we may get a very boring OEX Friday.

My DSL is still out though the engineers continue to work on the problem. They're swapping boards in and out and may start looking on telephone poles for the problem. I'm sending emails to the main television station in our state and our local newspaper.

The problem is definitely related to one of their DNS servers. I installed a DNS server on one of my machines and browsing performance went back up to where it was before the problem. But I have to make a connection first.

When you connect to a website, you have to go to a DNS server to translate the domain name to an IP address. Typical web pages have multiple domains on them (especially for ads). This operation should generally take next to no time but when it does, it is very noticeable.

If you install your own DNS cache or server on your router (to serve all machines) or your local machine (easier as updating your router means using 3rd-party software that you have to update your firmware with), then you have a process running that checks the local cache for the address translation. If it's not there, then it goes to your broadband service's DNS server to get it. That operation may be slow. But after it has it once and stored locally, it won't need to go outside for the translation.

It's not a perfect workaround but the internet is usable now. I think that our son should be able to do his homework with this software in place.

CAT 2Q earnings fall.
Currently getting plastered. Down over 5% in prehour.

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It depends on how the down phase plays out. If there's a real break, it would confirm the rollover of several longer term cycles that are much more important in the big picture. A flat correction would be bullish. So there's no reason to speculate on it now. We'll see how the down phase plays out and then we'll know.

One thing to keep in mind is that in 1929, tremendous economic and financial stresses were already in evidence early in the year. In 1987 the bond market began to fall apart 6 months before the stock market crash.

Stockboys are always the last to get the news. Having your head up your ass makes it difficult to smell or see the changes going on all around you.

That was not directed at anyone on this board, but rather to the general class of institutional investors.

Over 6.5 % now.

The corporate bond market is getting completely trashed this morning.

Spreads are another 10-20 bps wider in sectors such as brokers and homebuilders.

Leh priced a huge deal last week and the 30yr tranche is now trading north of 200bps to the long bond - wider by 30 bps which equals 3.8 points.

AAPL is up $2 in the premarket.

It seems like a pretty bifurcated earnings world so far.

BTW, AMD is up over $16/share. Lose $600 million for the third quarter in a row. They burned through $500 million in cash in Q1 and a billion in Q2 but they increased marketshare from 13% to 15%. Pretty easy to do when you're giving the chips away below cost. They're going to need to borrow another coupla billion if they burn another $500m in Q3. Intel's July cuts and new products should hit the street on Monday.

AMD is extremely optimistic that they can get to breakeven by the end of the year. I'm not sure if that's for Q4 or the year. If for the year, they'd have to earn $1.2 billion in Q3 and Q4. A pretty tall order when your next killer product is late and may not even work and when your competitor has far superior products.

Tough to be a bear these days.

Welcome to the club

AMD

Worked there back in the 80's.

Even then we called it

Another
Major
Disaster

7.8% now...
Any know what the weight of CAT is in the DOW?

99%, I hope.

Another WSE Pro Bellwether that had nailed its price projection and was at the tippy top of a channel.

Subscribe today!

1929

The stock market in London crashed early in 1929; the Empire of Japan was in depression; Russia had just emerged from a bloody civil war and was technically at war with most capitalist nations; Germany was reeling from war-debt repatriations(let's inflate and give them worthless Reichsmarks) and China did not even exist as a sovereign nation. Bottomline, 1929 was nothing like 21st century.

DOGs should do well today

gild raises numbers for the year ... but the stock is down and analist are touting it to go lower ... LMAO.

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?...JI&sitemapid=20

I guess that would make it a pretty heavy cat.

5%!!

Thanks!

That 7 point drop in CAT is going to knock the Dow for a loop, especially if there are any sympathy moves in other stocks.

All this carnage has an interesting smell.

GOOG 520 just went from .40 to 1.35 in 5 minutes.

2.1!!!

You in?

The Dow's divisor is 0.123017848

Take any price change in any of the stocks and divide by that number and it will tell you how many Dow points it's worth.

7 points divided by 0.123017848 equals 56.90 Dow points.

No..
Too fast...

I did pick up some 510 put at 1.45.
Currently at 2.10 now.

In terms of credit expansion and leverage, things are more extreme today. The same kinds of things were going on in 1929, but today-- orders of magnitude greater. So the risks are greater. 1987 is probably the better analogy.

I'm out at 3...

Gotta love Jimbo Krammer.

He's been banging the drum on GOOG, calling it one of the "four horsemen" (GOOG, AAPL, RIMMjob, AMZN) of tech driving the market higher and higher.

Earlier this week, he said, "Can't stop the horsemen. Just can't. Lots of people asking me whether it's too late to jump in. No, it is not too late. If I didn't own any of these, I would certainly start right here. I am calling for a 1995-like move where there will never be any serious pullbacks."

After GOOG pooped the bed last nite, Krammer now says, "Google's bad. Is it catastrophic? No, but it needs to be better than it was. We have so many companies that are blowing the doors off the estimates, that we don't have time to own one that does an in-line quarter and then spends and spends to try to get growth. Sorry Google."

One day you're one of the "four horsemen", the next day you're dog food. Welcome to Krammerworld.

Recently Krammer also told his legions that "all schlocks that go to $80 go to $100", so he told the troops to load up on schlocks like CAT which had just tagged $80. They rocketed CAT up to $87 in a matter of days. Whoops. Now back at $80.

I don't have any idea where GOOG or CAT go from here, maybe they go back up and beyond. But was there any doubt that these Krammer-tipped schlocks were going to get Pigshanked™?

In addition, all of those geopolitical/economic problems existed in 1927 and 1928, yet the US market zoomed higher. I think the issue is the degree of financial leverage. If the income streams aren't there to service the debt, the system collapses. That's what we are starting to see in the MBS market, and the first inklings in the LBO insanity. The crash has begun, but the Street and gummit will do their best to keep the con game going so that there's no run on the bank. As more investors realize that they are going to lose all their money, no amount of propaganda will restore confidence, and the scheme will unravel. I think we are witnessing the beginning of the endgame, right now.

Just dong some GOOG 520 calls at 1.15...
House's money...so becarefull..

Doing my own bit of gamibling today, bought 10 OEX 715 Jul Puts today for .75

Just covered my ES short at 1554.50 from last night (1560.25).

Hit and run..
hit and run..

What's OEX?

That's just great.
As soon as i cover, this thing tanks to 1550.75 for 4 more points.

S&P 100,

I agree with you. The geopolitic and geo-economic landscape is much more sanguine today than it was in 1929, with the possible exception of the U.S.

My biggest concern with the way things are going is focused mostly on leverage, the fact big bets are being pyramided higher and higher using borrowed money that is wholly dependent on asset inflation to keep the game going. This is primarily true in the financial sphere.

In the U.S. and a few other countries---Spain, UK and Australia perhaps---we have seen this leverage showing up in the household area as well. But in most countries, we are not seeing it nearly as much, if at all.

Archimedes once said, "Give me a lever big enough and I can lift the world."

That's pretty much what's happened.

And since much of the world remains unlevered, this can go on for some time, though we may see an intervening deleveraging period in the most overamped sectors and nations.

But too much leverage has its downside. As Archimedes might have said, "Give me a lever big enough and I can flip the world upside down." Finaglers tend to push the lever until it breaks, they rarely pull back until something goes awry. So the question becomes, when will the tipping point be? This year? Five years from now? 20 years from now?

This year. I think this will be an object lesson for those not yet levered. The big boys are levered to the hilt.

got to 2.4...
Did you sell yet?
Great trade!

Nope still hanging on, this market looks like it is ready to fall apart

Any selloff that doesn't violate SPX 1532ish and, more importantly, Nard 2632ish is for entertainment purposes only.

Still watching the materials. They are hanging by a thread today. But hanging nonetheless.

Thanks to GOOG and CAT, the SP Industrials and Techs are taking on a bit of water. Finaglers remains weak...for now.

But the sectors where all the chasing has been going on (funnymentally sound or not) has been the energies, materials and submerging markets. And there is no sellin' there.

You got a 2 bagger in 20 minutes and you didn't bail?
Gutsy. Good Luck!

Maybe he just got the horsemen wrong.