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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
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Charmin
I started last month off with the PMPIX gold fund showing a potential for a short covering rally after what appeared to be stopping action in the 36.50 area. That rally produced 10 points up to resistance and a 1/2 back retrace inside the trading range.

What we have here is a little nest just below and our birdie popped it's head out to fly, but it just didn't have enough strength to break free.

Now that we got out of the nest we have to flap our wings more to get airborne.

If your a bird and scared of cats you will flap your wings.


http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1185941111.png
Ageka
Goldmining down 3.71 % in JSE
Same on euronext
Gold itself down 0.5 % in euro
http://www.fin24.co.za/markets/Main.aspx

dharma
this was my last post last month:on the hourly xau chart, the market tagged the .618 retracement and the 89itma from beneath. i think either the top has occurred or it happens today or tomorrow morning. bv, you and i are on the same page.
as for the dollar, i see the potential 5 wave upmove from 05-06 and this could have been B and C up awaits. however, and i know B waves can go lower than the last bottom, however, i dont like the look of that. so, if the dollar get above 82 and change maybe the C wave scenerio comes into play. i am watching the metals, which i think look very bullish after this C decline. i am looking for xau 260 in the 1st quarter or 08. this venus retrograde is very important and should exert pressure on the markets til 9/08/07. dharma
ps. i just wanted to add that in 05 the dollar and gold went up together. so, their inverse relationship doesnt ring true every moment
dharma
i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long. dharma
Gold Majestic
QUOTE(dharma @ Aug 1 2007, 11:27 AM)
i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long.  dharma
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Close to PM Launch Area.
hedonicprocto
seniors may be holding up but my juniours have been led to slaughter
Gold Majestic
Well goobs, I wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when I said that I was worried about this market. Also back in March I expressed my concerns the Subprime mess was being underestimated.

This morning I caught a few more falling knives picking up some more of my favorites. We may not be out of the woods yet, so I'm employing stops on my recent purchases.

Below is an update of the S&P 500 Index showing the 1555 July high .618 retracement bounce off 1440.

gooberout smile.gif
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
Spot gold holding up extremely well today. It is not always a total whack job on all the miners. Either TRE or SLW or RGLD or one of my holdings will stay green during a slaughter. It just interesting to me. The miners have been acting kinda wild while spot is fairly tame. Makes me wonder if most miners have hedge problems.
Gold Majestic
Here's my XAU:GOLD Chart Update for the March 2 post.
Gold Majestic
QUOTE(Gold Majestic @ Mar 2 2007, 04:28 PM)
QUOTE(The CoinGuy @ Mar 1 2007, 10:08 AM)
Goober, always a pleasure.

Best,

TCG
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Blah Blah Blah . . .

I think the important story not being widely discussed is the sub-prime mortgage problem spreading/impacting the stock market/economy and emphasizing the need for the Fed to ease this summer. Combined, both are just too big to ignore. That puts the Fed in a corner regardless of inflation pressures. That is what the fed funds futures market is telling us, that the odds of a rate cut have dramatically increased from improbable to very probable within the next several months this summer. I wager the market will soon shift its focus/concern to this ripple effect on the financial markets forcing the Fed's hand. In the mean time, expect the usual tough on inflation "to support the dollar/treasuries" talk out of one side while the money pump continues out of the other side of the mouth.

I've posted a monthly chart several times in the past showing the 30-year T-bond:3-month T-bill yield spread ratio and its relationship to gold, HUI, copper, etc. My view is that when "support the economy/housing" rate cuts begin in the summer, the inverted yield curve will continue reversing to positive as the long rates rise from the inflation/financial turbulence/FCB diversification. Gold will continue rising in all currencies as FCBs devalue attempting to continue to support/arrest the slide in the $USD.

The Summer Fed re-inflation will be ultra bullsih for gold, bearish for the $USD.

Blah Blah Blah . . . cool.gif

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I guess this chart says it all . . .
BudFox
I hope nobody here is still optimistic about the miners.
Gold Majestic
One more for the road . . .

Double Bottom

Bottoms Up! wink.gif
bearvest
QUOTE(dharma @ Aug 1 2007, 12:27 PM)
i dont think A=C on this decline. i dont think xau will break 141. the gold/pms are holding up well. i dont think this decline goes very far or lasts very long.  dharma
*



Funny thing.

I looked at my charts and concluded just the opposite before I looked through this thread, dharma.

There's no bullish divergence on MACD (though there's some on Stochastics). The "hair-triggered" histogram is still bearish.

Not shown on the chart, XAU is still well above its lower Bollinger Band at 140.

A=B at 136.78.

Supporting your viewpoint, incidentally, is that wave "C" is almost precisely 61.8% of wave "A"---- the minimum requirement for a "C" wave.




bearvest
QUOTE(BudFox @ Aug 1 2007, 10:29 PM)
I hope nobody here is still optimistic about the miners.
*



Bud:

Shouldn't your long orange channel envelope the July highs, dragging the lower channel of the envelope up?

Likewise, wouldn't that place a higher level for the projection of the shorter term cycle?

I'm interested because I gave up on an alternate count that I called a large "B" wave count when XAU took out the 148-50 level.

The large "B" count would have called for a retracement back to the October lows at 117-20 in an irregular flat.
Gold Majestic
QUOTE(Gold Majestic @ Mar 14 2007, 07:50 PM)
QUOTE(Gold Majestic @ Mar 9 2007, 08:17 PM)
Warning: Ramble in Progress!
For me, as my post on Sunday indicated, Monday/Tuesday was a Buy-Me-Now-Back-Up-the-Truck-Sales-Event! There were some excellent bargains and if we get the retest I expect next week, I would overload the truck w/ even more of my favorites. We most likely have just seen THE LOW since January for 2007 in gold stocks! It's important to buy the dips if the fundamentals and technicals are in our favor as they are now. And be sure to expect the many corrections to continue along with all the drama and dire predictions that will accompany them. smile.gif

As posted in past charts, I believe we're in the third leg of this bull market, and haven’t experienced anything resembling manic moves in the gold stocks yet. But that will change soon enough as the retail investors participate in their very predictable manic ways.

The current bearishness/fear prevalent on the many gold sites including this one, are extremely bullish for gold stocks. ...

I continue to focus on take-over-candidate-Juniors with proven and probable reserves, recent discoveries/adding ounces (table pounders per past posts). Going forward, it's high time for the juniors to outperform. Spec "swingin' fo' the fence / table pounders / multi-millionaire makers / back up the truck" stocks includes favorites such as ckg.v, sa.v, etc. Also continue to like companies that are projecting big percentage increases in estimated earnings such as Golden Star, Minefinders, Eldorado, Alamos, etc.

Goobersout biggrin.gif
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Well, not much to add since last Friday.

But I will say that I was a kid in a candy store this morning buying some more of my favorites gold/silver stocks, including mo' sa.v. Continue swingin' for the fence since August 2000!

The bearishness, panick/fear emboldened my appetite. I paid particular attention to the XAU this morning hoping for the October 13th XAU gap to get filled and used that as my trigger to buy (gap almost filled). Also liked the divergence on several sentiment charts I follow. The gold stocks "up/down" volume ratio supports the creation of a major low here and now. The put/call ratio chart I posted last Friday showed the extreme bearishness of gold stock investors. After reviewing the data for the entire bull run since Nov 2000, 12 days has been the longest period of continued gold stock liquidation and put buying. Last Friday made 11 consecutive trading days and today we see a reversal!

Again, as I said Friday, we are very close to a bottom and hope that investors here view this as a buying opportunity and NOT a panic selling necessity. Also, last night, I observed how the Asian markets retested but did not break below their prior lows (Nikkei, Hang Seng, Singapore Strait Times, etc) and the European sell off (DAX, CAC, FTSE, etc.,) was muted in comparison. This diminished selling pressure was a tip off of a potential reversal today in the markets.

Tryin' to Sit Tight and Be Right! gooberout cool.gif
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________________________________________

Update since early March:

As posted in early March, my recommendation, SA.V, was one of the stocks I “backed the truck up” with. Up a whopping 725% in just a little over 3 months. By the time of my second post, May 18th, it had already climbed 450%.

321gold jumped on the bandwagon on April 25th with a couple of touts.

Today, I bought some more Southern Arc at the 1.40 level as I believe it’s about ready to begin leg III.

I’ve uploaded the chart below.

PS. Immediately after posting my SA.V reco on another web site that I frequent back in early March, posting my usual (for that site) full blown analysis, a new poster there said, “I hope no one is bullish on Southern Arc here.” I thought to myself, What? — did this guy not just see my 7 paragraph analysis? Is he blind? Anyway, today, immediately after posting several charts stating my cautious, renewed bullish stance on the miners, I heard similar words at this site reminding me of that. What part of "Close to PM Launch Area" is hard to understand? I had to chuckle!

I take that as a good omen.

PS. I'm cautious here w/ stops in place. We're catching knives here and best to stay out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat as the saying goes.

gooberhasleftthebuilding rolleyes.gif
Ageka
Subject to change of mind I now think some kind of bottom will be formed
around 20 august
This is double crystal ball gazing presuming that the 107 days cycle was short again and is finished and the current cycle will be left translated to make its bottom in the first third of the cycle . sad.gif
Ageka
German elliot says we go to 500
I am confused what happened to 250 ???? laugh.gif

http://www.elliottwaves-online.com/de/cont...070802-Gold.php
Private Skidmark
I reloaded fully about an hour ago. Biggest positions are SLW, RGLD, GG, and TRE. Lesser positions in CDE, GSS, NXG, HL, and AUY. I think I would be better off from a sanity POV checking prices less often. What I care about is where these stocks will be in a couple years. smile.gif
Metamucil
QUOTE(Ageka @ Aug 2 2007, 03:50 AM)
German elliot says we go to 500
I am confused what happened to 250 ????  laugh.gif

http://www.elliottwaves-online.com/de/cont...070802-Gold.php
*




IF this plays out, I cannot see that extremely bearish outcome.

http://www.technicalspeculator.com/databas...a39f8f66f9b.jpg
Metamucil
And Euro is getting a strong bid; watch 1.39 on spot.

user posted image
dharma
it is possible that we finished an abc yesterday. one can play this w/stops@yesterdays lows. i bought back nak @the close yesterday and i am now thinking about buying back sa. dharma
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
Posted On: Thursday, August 02, 2007, 10:56:00 AM EST
Private Skidmark
I get all lathered up when I read Jim Sinclair writing about share prices being orders of magnitude higher down the road. I wonder if he really means orders of magnitude as in one or more zeros added to current share prices. smile.gif
BudFox
QUOTE(bearvest @ Aug 1 2007, 07:54 PM)
QUOTE(BudFox @ Aug 1 2007, 10:29 PM)
I hope nobody here is still optimistic about the miners.
*



Bud:

Shouldn't your long orange channel envelope the July highs, dragging the lower channel of the envelope up?

Likewise, wouldn't that place a higher level for the projection of the shorter term cycle?

I'm interested because I gave up on an alternate count that I called a large "B" wave count when XAU took out the 148-50 level.

The large "B" count would have called for a retracement back to the October lows at 117-20 in an irregular flat.
*



Hurst suggested that a cycle envelope contain about 90% of price. But since volatility or deviation from the mean varies over time, the envelope size is always subject to revision. In other words, the price envelope is a rough visual guide. The crossing of offset moving averages must be used to determine more accurate price targets, where the crossing marks the midpoint of any cyclical move up or down.
Charmin
Nice performance out of TGB today. I like the retest of 4.16 recently at the support area.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1186097548.png
Charmin
Notice the short covering going on near the end of the day this week in the Dow stocks. Apparently, if they can't push it lower some pigmen keep covering. Interesting.

Vix is high - buy.
Gold Majestic
QUOTE(Gold Majestic @ Aug 1 2007, 07:02 PM)
Well goobs, I wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when I said that I was worried about this market. Also back in March I expressed my concerns the Subprime mess was being underestimated.

This morning I caught a few more falling knives picking up some more of my favorites. We may not be out of the woods yet, so I'm employing stops on my recent purchases.

Below is an update of the S&P 500 Index showing the 1555 July high .618 retracement bounce off 1440.

gooberout smile.gif
*



I'd like to elaborate on my concerns expressed last Spring regarding the PMs. Back then I posted some charts giving examples of how the pm stocks diverged from the broad markets at various times. I believe it was the SPX/XAU during the '73-'74 and the '01-'02 Bear Markets.

I'm hoping the same will occur this time as I said I believe we're not out of the woods in regards to the subprime/slowing economy/etc. mess and its impact on the markets.

My current thinking is that IF the broad markets have completed the A leg down, then we're just beginning the B leg bounce that will carry gold stocks along for the ride ending in a C leg down in early October. I'll be watching to see if the PM stocks can decouple on the C leg down as I'm hoping. But as we all know, hoping doesn't get it in this business. Tight stops in place/Margin Man Caped Crusader is no where to be seen.
Gold Majestic
Why Was Goober Backing Up the Truck w/ PMs / Stops in place the past couple days???

See charts below.
Gold Majestic
. . .
Gold Majestic
If this is an ABC down as I suspect, a good place for the C leg to end would be the long term 20 Month Moving Average. (See the Monthly $SPX Chart above.)

I believe it was Anjing Bau and/or The Coin Guy who originally projected an ABC down to begin in May and end in the September/October time frame.
Gold Majestic
One of the Reasons Why Goober Was Backing Up the Truck with Favorite PMs /stops the Past Couple Days . . .

gooberoverandout smile.gif
Gold Majestic
Got zinc on my mind lately.

Added to my MMG position this morning and took a starter position in Donner Metals today after the break out on the excellent news. (Prefer buying at support). Will add on any pull backs.

The Matagami base metals camp isn't dead after all — Very Good stuff.

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/release...id=757260&k=don

Donner Metals Ltd.: 6 New Massive Sulphide Intersections, Including 19.75 Metres of 22.95% Zinc, 21.40 Metres of 12.47% Zinc at Bracemac and 11.42 Metres of 8.91% Zinc at McLeod

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA -- Aug. 2, 2007) - Mr. Harvey Keats, Chief Executive Officer of Donner Metals Ltd. DON/TSXV, reports significant results from delineation drilling at both Bracemac and McLeod.

At Bracemac, high-grade massive sulphides have been intersected in three drill holes that tested the Key Tuffite Horizon, the horizon that hosts the major deposits of the Matagami mining camp. At McLeod, high-grade massive sulphides have been intersected in three drill holes, also at the Key Tuffite stratigraphic level. McLeod is located approximately 1 kilometre southeast of Bracemac which is located 4 kilometres southeast of Xstrata's Matagami mill.
bearvest
QUOTE(Whadda I Do Whadda I Do @ Aug 2 2007, 04:35 PM)


I can agree with his count but not his projections.

I posted this chart last month, just before the changeover.

When 5 waves are in, the trend is complete. A countertrend move takes over.

The 5th wave is an ending diagonal.

In my opinion, we didn't break through a bottom trendline. The action 2 weeks ago defined the lower trendline.

I think we'll see 83 and possibly 87 before 71.
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
QUOTE(bearvest @ Aug 2 2007, 09:34 PM)
QUOTE(Whadda I Do Whadda I Do @ Aug 2 2007, 04:35 PM)

I think we'll see 83 and possibly 87 before 71.
*


The only event(s) that I can think of that would cause a chart to look like your numbers would be another war, attack, bombing or something along those lines and not necessarily at our doing. Wouldn't necessarily hurt gold either unless they raise the interest rates to 20% tomorrow.
Metamucil
Bullish breakouts are sometimes powerful. Mine Safety Appliances is moving well.....why not?

user posted image
Metamucil
The relentlessly accumulative volume for TGB was bound to make it an extraordinary winner, as it rants along wave 3.

user posted image
Metamucil
And it is pretty obvious that SLW has greater demand vs supply.

user posted image
Ageka
Godmode trader went to neutral on Amex goldbug index biggrin.gif



http://www.godmode-trader.de/front/index.p...da=665837&idc=8
Charmin
New daily high on GLD since our recent low last Thursday

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1186157563.png
Charmin
Dollar getting trashed

Gold acting like a currency
Charmin
Silver chart by Charles Delvalle of Investors Daily Edge shows consolidations last a long time before it moves higher

user posted image
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/Issues/C...ip_image002.jpg

chiefywiefy
QUOTE(Charmin @ Aug 3 2007, 11:19 AM)
Silver chart by Charles Delvalle of Investors Daily Edge shows consolidations last a long time before it moves higher

user posted image
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/Issues/C...ip_image002.jpg
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Also not shown on the chart is the 100ma on the weekly. It last hit that average during the 2 year consolidation in the jul-oct05 period. Currently the weekly 100ma is around 11.50 and rising. Looking like 11.80 would be a great place to add the physical.
faramir
QUOTE(bearvest @ Aug 2 2007, 11:34 PM)
QUOTE(Whadda I Do Whadda I Do @ Aug 2 2007, 04:35 PM)


I can agree with his count but not his projections.

I posted this chart last month, just before the changeover.

When 5 waves are in, the trend is complete. A countertrend move takes over.

The 5th wave is an ending diagonal.

In my opinion, we didn't break through a bottom trendline. The action 2 weeks ago defined the lower trendline.

I think we'll see 83 and possibly 87 before 71.
*



You guys are the TA experts but it is worth keeping in mind that the USD is simply a measure of relativity to other paper. 58% of the US D Index is the Euro - so it is also important to do TA on the Euro. From a fundamental standpoint we are talking about Old Europe whose socialist systems are going to break down well before America's.

Being a Canadian I hope we don't see 70 cents anytime soon on the USD as that would likely translate to 1.15 US Dollars to the Loonie and will wipe out any gold gains we are likely to see in Canadian dollars. I'd hate to see us become the next South Africa that went through a gold price collapse due to currency revaluation.
Charmin
Gold up. Dollar toasting

Sell all gold stocks not up today
Gold Majestic
A few comments . . .

This marker scenario is looking more and more like a great setup for a great buying opportunity followed by a huge rally.

It's bullish that the HUI held at nearly 340 while SPX made significant new lows portending still more possible new lows Monday/Tuesday.

That should force the FED to ease as I've been anticipating. IMO, there's a 50% probability that HUI will hold its Wednesday low of 335. If not, then one more low would find huge support at the 300 level which would be a back up the truck, margin here we come event!

I would take full advantage of any further unwarranted and absurd panic selling in the PMs.

In the mean time cool.gif
Gold Majestic
QUOTE(Gold Majestic @ Aug 3 2007, 03:30 PM)
A few comments . . .

This marker scenario is looking more and more like a great setup for a great buying opportunity followed by a huge rally.

It's bullish that the HUI held at nearly 340 while SPX made significant new lows portending still more possible new lows Monday/Tuesday.

That should force the FED to ease as I've been anticipating. IMO, there's a 50% probability that HUI will hold its Wednesday low of 335. If not, then one more low would find huge support at the 300 level which would be a back up the truck, margin here we come event!

I would take full advantage of any further unwarranted and absurd panic selling in the PMs.

In the mean time  cool.gif
*



One more comment goobers.

Concerning the general market problems and Yen carry trade and the worry effect it has placed on PM stock investors . . .

We're arriving into the strong buying season for gold. If the SPX were to have enough of a sustained drop that Gold/HUI would finally decouple from SPX rising on its own, then the above worry issue would be removed resulting in many investors getting back into PMs in a big way.

Until then, Gold/HUI is still more or less enabled or disabled by the SPX action.
Charmin
Well, it may be that the SPX will revisit the 1360-1390 area. That alone may lead to selling pressures.
Ageka
QUOTE
You guys are the TA experts but it is worth keeping in mind that the USD is simply a measure of relativity to other paper. 58% of the US D Index is the Euro - so it is also important to do TA on the Euro. From a fundamental standpoint we are talking about Old Europe whose socialist systems are going to break down well before America's


I do not know about the other countries but Belgium has been on an austerity plan to meet the EUnion guidelines like for 10+ years now
It was reported that for the third year in a row social and medical assistance outflows were balanced with incomes
I never heard that before
Imagine a balanced welfare budget
Nearly immidiately after a taxcut possibility was promised cool.gif
aureleus
decoupling continuing.


Whadda I Do Whadda I Do
The US monetary system has been breaking down since we produce more debt than anything else. And with the bank funds blowing up one by one, nobody wants to take a chance and invest in anything leveraged now.

RGLD was up above 4% Friday and got whacked at the close and still stayed in the green. It is hard to tell which miners are not going to be affected by hedging, the royalties are a better bet as shown by RGLD and it seems investors are starting to figure that out. During panic buying all the miners will go up just some more than others. I think NEM is a dog but it will do well because of mob mentality if they have any gold left after they pay off their debts (ha ha).
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