http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

A mild amount of green around today but punters are cautious. All Ords +0.5% with sectors mixed. Energy is taking a turn in the lead, +0.9% followed by Financials and Materials, +0.8%. IT is taking a hammering for the ?3rd day, -1%.

Smallish gains on the miners: BHP +1.2%, RIO +0.6%, Zinifex +0.3% and in the golds, Newcrest +2.2% and Newmont +0.6%.

In the oils, Woodside +0.8%, Santos +0.2% and Caltex +0.4%.

U.S. Housing Is one of History's `Biggest Bubbles,' Rogers Says

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. subprime-market rout that wiped out $2.1 trillion from global share values last week has ``got a long way to go,'' Jim Rogers said.

Concern that defaults among subprime mortgages may be spilling over to other credit markets and hurting earnings and takeovers last week sent the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index to its worst weekly drop in five years. Further losses may be in store even as shares rebounded this week, said Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc.

``This is only time in world history when people were able to buy houses with no money down and in fact, in some cases, the builders gave them money for a down payment,'' Rogers said. ``So this bubble is the worst we've had in housing and it's going to be the worst we've had cleaning it out.''

Bank of England Leaves Interest Rate at Six-Year High

Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate at a six-year high today as policy makers assess whether five quarter-point increases in the past year are enough to quell inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, left the Bank Rate at 5.75 percent, the highest since April 2001, the central bank said today in London.

I am speechless

"Crude oil may fall in New York next week, after rising to a record on Aug. 1, on speculation U.S. refiners have enough supplies to meet fuel demand."

RISE_NEUTRAL _FALL
6 ______9______23

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a1_LjuOmWL6E

I better fill up my car, donging some oil might not be a bad idea as well.

A pretty pathetic day overall. All Ords squeezed out +0.1% with most sectors in disarray. Materials ended up top dog, +0.9% followed by Energy +0.3%. Consumer Discretionary finished down the most, -0.8%.

In the miners, golds did pretty well with Newcrest +2.6% and Newmont +2.5%. The two major heavyweights didn't do a lot, BHP +1.2% and RIO +0.1%.

Oils varied: Woodside +0.9%, Santos +1.8% and Caltex -1.3%.

Asia mostly up ranging from China +3.5% to Singers -0.1%.

UK/Europe heading south:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

If I understand it correctly this german bank got in trouble reported 30 july

IKB DEUTSCHE INDUSTRIEBANK AG

KfW is 38% owner and helping out

http://www.ikb.de/content/de/presse/presse...staerkt_IKB.jsp

KfW is from a group of Government banks

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienst...ion/232764.html

They are paying 8.1 billion euro
German country owns 80% of KfW the other 20% is the different states
Decision was made Sunday afternoon with finance minister
Bundesfinanzminister Peer Steinbrück

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,497540,00.html

2 august
shares of IKB in free fall
all the billions of help cannot restore confidence

http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_243042

German tax contributors paying for US flippers indulgence and on top of that they get to keep the Beemers and Audis, now that's something I didn't expect.

China - food price inflation

Food prices in June were up 7.6 percent from the same month last year, driven by a 74.6 percent jump in prices for pork, China's staple meat.

increases of up to 40 percent in the price of instant noodles

http://english.sina.com/business/1/2007/0803/120695.html

in one week...

The average price of vegetables jumped 3.3 percent from July 23 to July 29 from the previous week thanks to short supplies and higher transport and storage costs in bad weather.

http://english.sina.com/business/1/2007/0802/120592.html

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America's Economic Mood: Gloomy
Broad Public Pessimism Spurs Democratic Candidates To Target Business Interests
By JOHN HARWOOD - August 2, 2007; Page A4

More than two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows. That assessment comes despite the fact the economy has experienced sustained growth with low inflation and unemployment and generally rising stock values ever since the recession that ended early in President Bush's tenure.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1186005727...p_us_whats_news

Feels like the wheels are starting to come off, doesn't it?

The New York Times
By KEITH BRADSHER - Published: August 3, 2007

Since Blackstone went public on June 22, the company’s shares have fallen steeply, pushing down the value of the Chinese government’s investment by more than $425 million in just six weeks.

Chinese bloggers, and even some financial media, have not taken the hammering lying down. They are assiduously tracking the dwindling value of the government stake, and some bloggers and postings in Internet chat rooms are bitterly questioning Beijing’s stock judgment — often in particularly Chinese terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/03/business...=th&oref=slogin

yes, doesn't look good, just hope we all have enough savings etc

Yes and I got two unanswered questions
In Belgium every account has a state insurance of only 20 000 euro per account and 20 000 euro per share deposit .
So how do I find out my bank is safe ? ( Are there safe banks left ?)

Second question ; If I buy puts or sell short and the counterparty goes brook do I get a cent of those 1000% gains I made on paper ?

I wonder how they'd react if they knew that they are the numba 1 certifiable bagholders of the housing bust.

"In a sign that the Chinese government may be less comfortable with the marketplace of ideas than they are with the stock market, the blogger’s entry was visible on the Web site on Thursday afternoon, but had disappeared by Thursday night."

Sounds like the "troublemakers" have been gathered and reeducated

my understanding of spreadbetting is that it's a gentlemens agreement and therefore not legally binding and so if they go bust you do not get your winnings

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and the
unemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment grew in
several service-providing industries. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents,
or 0.3 percent.

NFP

That's pretty weak! That should be bullish news today. Might get the talking heads going on about a rate cut by the end of the year.

Last night someone brought up the idea that productivity will be impacted by the housing bubble collapse. I have been having the exact same idea. I think a lot of people are going to be trapped in one location for a long time with houses they can't afford to sell. So rather than moving every 5 years or so to a place with better job prospects they'll just make due where they are as best they can. In the US mobility of workers has been a big advantage in the past versus other nations.

WSE Pro Precious Metals Update-

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/gold/gold080307.pdf

Walmart to Hire 6,000 More Greeters

According to company spokesperson Debbie Igotsmine, "Our customers enjoy taunting these poor bastards on the way into the store, so we figured what the hell, we might as well hire some more.....we pay them next to nothing anyway so why not?"

Whoever said that last night is a damned fool....

Pretty sure that the puts would be fine. THat's what margin & a clearinghouse are for: to assure that counterparties remain sufficiently solvent to make good on their contracts, and to cover in those instances when things go awry..

qqqq 5 day cycle indicators edging to the sell side in the pre market.

What do you think will be the impact on wages if any?

Because workers have less mobility they'll have less flexibility in accepting higher salaries far away from home. OTH companies are limited to the local "pool" of workers.

Maybe in the end the only negative impact is in productivity as you mentioned.

curretnly below the one and 3 day cycle MAs at 48.30, but above the 5 day at 48.17, where there should be support. . 8 day cycle MA is at 47.98.

Look to countries that have a much less mobile workforce as a model. In general you see much higher unemployment and hence lower wages. Start-up and smaller firms in one part of the country can't attract needed talent and labor from another part so innovation suffers. Skilled workers are forced to take jobs outside of their fields in usually lower paying areas because of a local gluts of workers with the same skill set. Meanwhile shortage of this same skill set exist in other parts of the country. The work force can't adapt as well to local boom bust cycles. Some industries are very mobile, for example construction. If workers can't move from a bust area to the next boom market the cycle feeds on itself. In the end people make due but they don't maximize their potential.

HUI 3 day cycle projection 348-49.



With the puts, there may be counterparty risk. Not with selling short, since the cash is "theoretically" in you account when you sell the stock. But in either case, if your broker or clearing firm is Bear (and I think they are the largest clearing firm) and they go bust, then you are going to have to rely on the SIPC up to the limits of coverage.

As for safety of principle of short term cash assets, I would rely only on sovereign short term Treasury or Ministry of Finance instruments of your home country. If you go outside, then you face currency risk.



When you're under water, just hand in the keys and go.

For most people, such a thought wouldn't have entered their minds a year ago. That's going to begin to change as more and more people find their homes are worth less than their mortgage balance. If they think there are greener pastures elsewhere, they'll go.

People whose houses are in foreclosure have a lot of mobility. Back in the 30s, millions roamed the country looking for work.

NDX showing negative divies on the very short term here.....

[attachmentid=86807]

In countries with low worker mobility, isn't it also true that housing is relatively scarce? In the US, there's a glut of housing.

next support is the 8 day cycle MA at 47.98. Should bounce there. If the bounce is weak, I'll buy some QID again. I got stopped out yesterday. (Glutton for punishment. )

Crooks unloaded their bets in a big hurry. Smells like a bear bait.

I put together some snippets of manufacturing data, if your interested. I keep records of economic data like this on a month to month basis. The attached document is in no particular order, and some dates differ based on when I ran across a good chart. Trends are identified in Red. Most all productivity data is either trending down or is flat. I also threw in the LEI since it has turned negative and is a reliable predictor of recessions.

(Thanks Linrom - another 24 oz'er coffee crank this am)

Dong ES at 1467.25

[attachmentid=86809]

Stopped out at 1465...

I think it was back in the late 80's when people last mailed in the keys to their home en masse. I think they called it "gingle mail."

XBD seems to have really fallen apart

I'm wondering if the crooks are going to paint a retest of the lows over the next few days.....Just trying to think like a crook...

[attachmentid=86810]

Tanks, may I recommend the addition of the term spread? it's also a good prediricator of Recessions. Don't trust Greenspan's spewings bashing it's value.

qqqq 5 hr cycle projection 47.78-82

spx 5 hr projection 1456

spy on threshold list. can not be shorted

oops. hui 3 day cycle projection drops to 345.

As long as 1448-1453 holds, Spooz should be OK here. A violation opens up a move down to the next minor support at 1432ish.

Entertaining to read some of the usual girlybull suspects trying to drum up Faux Fear. Here's Clif Joke today: "Panic in the streets, fear in the air! Did you hear that sound last week. That was the collective sound of millions of retail traders and investors screaming in fear and running, not walking, to the nearest bomb shelter!"

To me, fear is when a markit slices through important support like a hot knife thru butter. Not a markit where every key sectoid chart gets schtick-saved right where it should.

These girlybullz are hoping that folks start jumping out windows so they can buy, buy, buy. Instead, they are getting pissy that no one is taking this selloff seriously. So they try to invent a reality that fits their book.

If the crooks really want to foment fear, they would paint "fakedown breakdowns" on sectoid after sectoid and get shortz to load up the putz instead of schtick-saving them and forcing shortz to cover.

BSC put on negative outlook by S&P.

Sort of amusing.

S&P put a bunch of feelgoodhappy ratings on a bunch of collateralized crap, and now, those who relied on those ratings are setup for downgrade by S&P.

Another name should be Security guard, checking bags and receipts for shop lifters as Wal Mart shoppers are taking more samples.

That be JIMI.

New low on GS on this leg down.