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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
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I thought we might see some stabilization today but no dice so far. All Ords -1.8% and Utilities is out in front, -2.9% closely followed by Energy and Healthcare both -2.8%. IT is the only green sector, +0.2% with Property Trusts flat.

Less selling on the big two: BHP -2%, RIO -0.2% but gold miner Newcrest not having such a good day, -3.6%. Newmont -0.2%.

Energy stocks getting their usual hammering: Woodside -2.8% and Santos -3.3%.


aussiebear
Rams Home Loans Fails to Refinance Debt; Shares Slump

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Rams Home Loans Group Ltd., an Australian lender that went public last month, failed to refinance short-term debt as buyers shun credit markets on concern that subprime losses will deepen.

Rams slumped as much as 41 percent on the Australian Stock Exchange. The shares fell to 83 cents at 11:19 a.m. in Sydney, compared with A$2.50 paid by investors before the stock listed on July 27.

The Sydney-based lender cited the ``tightening of the global credit markets'' for being unable to sell A$6.17 billion ($5 billion) of so-called extendable commercial paper, the company's largest source of funding for its loans, it said in a statement today.

Rams has 180 days to find buyers for the debt, who will get a rate that yields 25 basis points more than the London interbank offered rate, or libor, the company said. This debt yielded less than libor about two weeks ago.

The lender has been given temporary funding of A$1 billion by two of its providers, Rams said in the statement.


Got cash?




aussiebear
Crashette in Asia: Sth Korea -7.1%, Singers -4.3%, Taiwan -3.9% and Nikkers -2.4%.


FauxCaster
How are those day-trading Japanese housewives doing now?

Japanese housewife nets £1.7m betting on currency markets, April 13, 2007

"Analysts said the $3 trillion (£1.52 trillion) of annual currency trading by retail investors in Japan may be the main reason for the persistent weakness of the yen — a boon to Japan’s exporters in recent months."

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle1647243.ece
crazy_ate
Wheeeeee!!!!!! biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif Hey Mr. "Tits Long", grab my scarf!!!........ biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

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crazy_ate
Hey Lee W.

Tanks for the Anal-cyst on "the steels" in M-2-M......I'm watching these monkeys, but no more buying for me until the wheels completely fall off.

My efforts for the next several days will be spent battening down the hatches. Moving money from all MMF's and into multiple local bank CD's and T-bills......keeping the powder SAFE & dry for the next few to several months. blink.gif

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Until the smoke clears.........NOT!!!...........there's hardly any smoke much less FIRE. This mutha' ain't even on the dance floor yet.

However, any FED intervention will spike this thing like a rocket -- but only temporarily.

FWIW:

The thing that scarred the sh!t out of me were the stories about the CP market starting to seize. I traded CP for my former employer when I was a young buck in the Treasury Dept. of the firm for a few years. Every day, $500M here, $3.5 billion there....boom, boom, boom. There's nothing like moving a market with a $1 billion trade using someone elses money. biggrin.gif So I have, well let's say, an intimate "working knowledge" of that market.

The fact that the CP market is showing even a few cracks is a, well, ummm, A MAJOR PHUCKIN PROBLEM!!!!

Therefore, and for the near to medium term, all CASH assests are going into CD's ($25,000 limit per institution - local banks and some big name banks, diversification is KEY), and T-bills......it's gonna be a pain in the ass and take until next week to get it all done......but dat's OKeeee.....Dokeeeeee
crazy_ate
Hello Girls & Boyz,

Watch what happens to the markets when we get the first MMF that "breaks the buck."

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When that happens it will instantly become the new media catch phrase and " liquidity" will go out the window.

Then the fun will start. And based on the amont of ABSCP (asset backed securitized commercial paper) held in MANY MMF's, it ain't gonna be long.



DrStool
New podcast posted at http://radiofreewallstreet.fm
mdporter
Goldman's Sack is rapidly approaching it's $150 breakout gap. Already 29% off its highs.

PnF price target is $140. That would be 39% off the highs.

Wonder if any GS employees are becoming frightened.


aussiebear
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Whoa what was that all about? One minute All Ords -5%, next minute a dramatic v-bottom (and interestingly the latter happened just before the futures market reopened after the lunch break). The index ended down a relatively modest -1.5%, Utilities retained the downside lead, -3.2% followed by Telecomms -1.9% and Financials -1.5%. IT was the only green, +1.8%.

Miners ended up well off their lows: BHP -0.6% and RIO -0.5%. In the golds, Newmont did well considering, +2.1% and Newcrest finished -2.4%.

Oils were caught up in the intraday bounce: Woodside -0.9% and Santos -0.7%.

Carnage in Asia: Sth Korea -6.9%, Taiwan -4.6%, Honkers -3.7%, India -3.6%.

Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe


aussiebear
New Zealand and Australian Dollars Slump

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar plunged, heading for its biggest weekly loss since the 1987 stock market crash, as investors slashed holdings of high-yield assets funded by loans in yen.

Australia's dollar tumbled, extending its five-day loss to the most since May 2004, as a drop in Asian stocks encouraged investors to reduce so-called carry trades. Both currencies fell to their lowest in about five months against the dollar and yen as short-term interest rates in Australia and New Zealand surged on concerns losses related to subprime mortgages are deepening.




alceringa
QUOTE(aussiebear @ Aug 16 2007, 04:48 PM)
New Zealand and Australian Dollars Slump

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar plunged, heading for its biggest weekly loss since the 1987 stock market crash, as investors slashed holdings of high-yield assets funded by loans in yen.

Australia's dollar tumbled, extending its five-day loss to the most since May 2004, as a drop in Asian stocks encouraged investors to reduce so-called carry trades. Both currencies fell to their lowest in about five months against the dollar and yen as short-term interest rates in Australia and New Zealand surged on concerns losses related to subprime mortgages are deepening.
*



Don't have the links handy, but about 70% of the Aussie stock market is owned by Foreigners and about 70-80% of the domestic home mortgage funding comes from the AUD/Yen carry trade money with lots of the rest coming from the USA.

Aussie dollar weakness is one of the canaries in the coal mine for Yen carry trade unwinding.
Peek Paper
Paulson - "I took my short positions to Tokyo with me.."
Paulson also said the repricing of risk in markets should not surprise anyone and was inevitable, and that nothing should be done to guarantee market players against losses or restrain them from taking risks
fxfox
Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen weekly chart

on the longer term perspective not that much has happend...

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... but shorter term we can call it a crash!

(AUD/JPY daily chart)

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Peek Paper
As I said Tuesday :
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Aug 15 2007, 01:38 AM)
I'm with Doc, feels like she's gonna blow a major gasket here.

Gasket to Casket velocity = 1 1/2 trading days.

A rate cut the day of SPX expiry (Thursday close) should reverse this POS at the bottom of LW's Entertainment Zone (1380's).

Afterwhich, much more carnage will follow. It will be the sucker bounce of The Age's.

I, too, am SPOOked by the Pigmen's cudliness with the Bears lately. Prudence, Bears ...
*


Futures spell REDRUM
Jetlag
Everyone is going off in the media calling for doom and gloom while the markets are still blatantly overvalued. Nothing has happened yet, this paltry correction is still a long way from "fair value".
Jetlag
Shorty returns drenched in hookers and booze bought with shorting money - check
Wndy 100% cash and taking a 3 day sabbatical from trading until the market is ready to turn down again - check

If this thing doesn't bounce here it might as well crash.
Peek Paper
CME E-mini S&P 500® 1395.50 -1900

wake up time for the Street People ...
fxfox
DAX weekly

still 1000 points to go for a test of the uptrend, looks like a "correction" to around 6000 is in the cards

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DAX daily

100 points till we hit EMA 200 daily

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look at last year in may/june, we got a correction from 6162 to 5243 thats 15%, so this year we topped at 8151, so a 15% correction would lead us to 6929, but i guess this will be more than a 15% after all

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fxfox
alternative energy gets bombed in germany today
Jetlag
QUOTE(fxfox @ Aug 16 2007, 06:22 AM)
DAX weekly

still 1000 points to go for a test of the uptrend, looks like a "correction" to around 6000 is in the cards

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Chart öffnen


DAX daily

100 points till we hit EMA 200 daily

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look at last year in may/june, we got a correction from 6162 to 5243 thats 15%, so this year we topped at  8151, so a 15% correction would lead us to 6929, but i guess this will be more than a 15% after all

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Chart öffnen
*



FxFox, do you have any theory regarding the outperformance of the DAX versus the CAC and the FTSE? It's not just more beta, because it did go up much more but is coming down less.
Jetlag
Euro indices undercutting soup hort. Except for the Dax which is still hovering above the clouds for some reason. Maybe the ECB is the lender of last resort to Germany - period - others in the Euro Zone will have to mint some new currency and stick it to their tax prayers.
DrStool
Good to see our European posters active overnight here. I'd like to see more of you! Anybody in Europe with something to say, please register for the board. I'll get you approved as quickly as possible.

Jetlag, of course, never sleeps. laugh.gif
Jetlag
Tan Man tapped enough money to pay is salary and insider selling, for now:

"Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, tapped an $11.5 billion credit line to shore up its available cash.

The unsecured credit line is with a group of 40 of the world's largest banks"

"Countrywide five-year credit swaps climbed 250 basis points to 850 basis points"

Wow, 40 biggest bagholders, wonder if there's any chinese financing this. Who's going to "merge" with CFC?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...nXTs&refer=home

In other news, the trade war with china continues:

"Tipped off by J&J, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a nationwide consumer alert in October without disclosing the link to China. While no injuries were reported, inaccurate test readings may lead a diabetic to inject the wrong amount of insulin, causing harm or death, the agency said. Fake medicines are a $32 billion global business, says the World Health Organization, and the FDA says it ran 54 counterfeit investigations in 2006, almost double the year before."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...YwKc&refer=home

The chinese haven't responded by restricting foreigner entrepreneurial activity in China so far...
Madame Wu holding out on the bids is more subtle, they've got that gambler back bone.
DrStool
I think a big bounce is inevitable today. Crashes never occur on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are the best bet. The question is whether to cover and reload later, or just sit through the bounce for the truly big profits next week. For now, I am still holding my qid. If the selloff is sharp enough, I could take close out for now and try to reload later today or tomorrow.

Only problem is, I don't know what's "sharp enough." I hope it's one of those things that I'll know it when I see it. smile.gif

On the other hand, I don't want to get too cute. Hmmm. Gotta make a plan here.

At the moment, the 3 day cycle projection on the QQQQ is 45.25. spy 138.50 (probably good for around 1390 on spx. on the qid 50.50. ha ha. I guess it's a coin flip. At the moment, I'm inclined to take the 50.50. Have the same projection on some longer term cycles.
DrStool
Keep in mind that CFC is one of the Fed's primary dealers. They have a direct line to unlimited credit.
DrStool
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:06 AM)
I think a big bounce is inevitable today. Crashes never occur on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are the best bet.
*




Want to make clear that I do not expect a reversal day, just a strong bounce from the lows, wherever they may be.
DrStool
can anyone tell me if skype is down, or if I just have a network problem?
Lemur
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 12:11 PM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:06 AM)
I think a big bounce is inevitable today. Crashes never occur on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are the best bet.
*




Want to make clear that I do not expect a reversal day, just a strong bounce from the lows, wherever they may be.
*




From what I can tell, every trader Tom out there is planning to short the rallies. So bounces will be meeting a wall of resistance at those key pts (fib, resistance lines etc). My plan is here is just to sit tight on my (big) short positions. Right now, I think the risk is in not holding the shorts for the big move.
aussiebear
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 07:52 PM)
Good to see our European posters active overnight here. I'd like to see more of you! Anybody in Europe with something to say, please register for the board. I'll get you approved as quickly as possible.

*



I second that...

Holy sheet, Footsie -3.2%, CAC -2.8% and DAX -2.5%!



BusKow
Rumors of repo rate of 5% this morn?
aussiebear
U.K. Retail Sales Increase the Most in Five Months

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose by the most in five months in July as price cuts by stores lured shoppers.

Sales climbed 0.7 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in June, which was twice as much as previously reported, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists had forecast a 0.1 percent gain, the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Tesco Plc, Britain's biggest retailer, and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Asda cut prices on thousands of products to attract customers during the wettest summer months on record. The Bank of England is considering whether to lift interest rates again to slow growth and inflation. Investors have reduced expectations on an increase as a credit squeeze roils financial markets.


try2win
cat fight on CNBS ... good stuff !
try2win
adding to long NASDAQ position
crazy_ate
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:07 AM)
Keep in mind that CFC is one of the Fed's primary dealers. They have a direct line to unlimited credit.
*



That may be, but they just drew down their ENTIRE $11.5 billion line of credit this morning because of continued liquidity concerns.

They also stated that going forward 90%+ of the morts. they write will be GSE eligible
crazy_ate
QUOTE(try2win @ Aug 16 2007, 08:37 AM)
cat fight on CNBS ... good stuff !
*



Yeah, pretty good alright

Lease"man" ---- crapping his pants

Santelli -- daring Lease"man" to "come down to the pits!!!"
DrStool
QUOTE(crazy_ate @ Aug 16 2007, 08:38 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:07 AM)
Keep in mind that CFC is one of the Fed's primary dealers. They have a direct line to unlimited credit.
*



That may be, but they just drew down their ENTIRE $11.5 billion line of credit this morning because of continued liquidity concerns.

They also stated that going forward 90%+ of the morts. they write will be GSE eligible
*



Too bad the GSEs are maxed out and won't be buying.
crazy_ate
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:46 AM)
QUOTE(crazy_ate @ Aug 16 2007, 08:38 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:07 AM)
Keep in mind that CFC is one of the Fed's primary dealers. They have a direct line to unlimited credit.
*



That may be, but they just drew down their ENTIRE $11.5 billion line of credit this morning because of continued liquidity concerns.

They also stated that going forward 90%+ of the morts. they write will be GSE eligible
*



Too bad the GSEs are maxed out and won't be buying.
*



I hear yah.....but I think that is going to be "one" of the relief valves that will have to be pulled -- eventually (i.e., expanded limits)

Or better yet, they can create a new Federally backed mortgage entity..... laugh.gif
DrStool
qqqq bouncing toward the 3 day cycle MA, now coming down at 45.81. spy bouncing toward 3 day cycle MA at 140.40. 3 day cycle projection on the Qs pulls up to 45.30.

Looks like a replay of yesterday. Rally in the AM, collapse in the PM. Since there's no knifedown this AM, I'll again hold the qid through this bounce.
potatohead
DJ Fed Accepts $5 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $5 Bln
Total submitted: $77.05 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $22.35 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.95%
Low-rate submitted: 4%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $250 Mln
Total submitted: $16.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.8%
Weighted Average: 4.8%
High-rate submitted: 4.8%
Low-rate submitted: 3.5%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $4.75 Bln
Total submitted: $38 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.15%
Weighted Average: 5.23%
High-rate submitted: 5.28%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

DrStool
I just posted another bellwethers update in WSE Pro. Lots of new 13 week cycle cmaps. Check it out!

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/stocks/bellwethers081607.pdf (subscribers only)
crazy_ate
BWAAAAAAHHHHHHHH

Whiskey tried to do his intro -- in his usual bewildered and drunken state -- so they yanked his mic right in the middle of his "LIVE FROM.......bzzzzzzzzzz!!!!!
ChicagoBear
QUOTE(crazy_ate @ Aug 16 2007, 07:49 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:46 AM)
QUOTE(crazy_ate @ Aug 16 2007, 08:38 AM)
QUOTE(DrStool @ Aug 16 2007, 08:07 AM)
Keep in mind that CFC is one of the Fed's primary dealers. They have a direct line to unlimited credit.
*



That may be, but they just drew down their ENTIRE $11.5 billion line of credit this morning because of continued liquidity concerns.

They also stated that going forward 90%+ of the morts. they write will be GSE eligible
*



Too bad the GSEs are maxed out and won't be buying.
*



I hear yah.....but I think that is going to be "one" of the relief valves that will have to be pulled -- eventually (i.e., expanded limits)

Or better yet, they can create a new Federally backed mortgage entity..... laugh.gif
*



The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Short it to ZERO!
ChicagoBear
QUOTE(crazy_ate @ Aug 16 2007, 07:39 AM)
QUOTE(try2win @ Aug 16 2007, 08:37 AM)
cat fight on CNBS ... good stuff !
*



Yeah, pretty good alright

Lease"man" ---- crapping his pants

Santelli -- daring Lease"man" to "come down to the pits!!!"
*



Go get him Rick!
crazy_ate
Anyone else see that?

See what?

1,387 on the S&Pee

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dogsie
The Jakarta exchange is really crashing, down 13% in 3 days
ChicagoBear
The charts are breaking down. Blew through a/o ran away from the 200dma yesterday. Everything is below except Down Jones (sitting right on it). Started slicing through support levels; it looks like the avalanche has started. Beware of out-thinking yourself. I did yesterday and it cost me some gains. I got back in and looking to add margin on any uptick or pause in the selling today. Shorting the financials is fun - kind of like getting your interest payments back. biggrin.gif
4shzl
Looking for a test of Globex ES low: 1392.50 --> LW's magic SPX# ~1387. A successful test of last night's ER2 low 745.80 would give rutty a double bottom @742. Not THE BOTTOM, but a plausible spot for a scarebears bounce. unsure.gif

With yenamoto san breaking 114 overnight, there have got to be some very serious carry trade issues out there. Any long trades will be scalps only; I remain heavily short via TWM, MZZ & QID. ph34r.gif
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