http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Very predictable green throughout the region today. All Ords is up 3% with big gains in most sectors. Materials is way out in front, +5.2% followed by Energy +3.9%. There is one red sector, Telecomms, -2.5%.

Massive leaps on the two leading miners: BHP +5.9% and RIO +4.4%. Golds a tad more ho-hum, Newcrest +2.6% and Newmont +1.4%.

Energy stocks giving it a nudge: Woodside +3.8%, Santos +4.5% and Caltex +5.8%.

Market direction

The market went totally nuts today; somehow I think tomorrow will be far more sedate but as to direction, well, each-way bet on that. All Ords finished up a massive +4.5% with sectors maintaining their various positions. Materials closed +7.1%, Energy +6.1% and Financials +5.2%. Telecomms stayed in the red, -1% and Property Trusts had the least gain, +2.4%.

In the miners, a huge move by BHP, +7.4% with RIO +4.8%. Golds also did pretty well: Newcrest +3.1% and Newmont +2.4%.

No flies on the oils: Woodside +6.1%, Santos +4% and Caltex +8.7%.

Da bullz are running in Asia: Sth Korea +5.7%, Singers +5.4%, Taiwan +5.3%, China +5%, Honkers +3.6% and Nikkers +2.3%.


Over to UK/Europe:







http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

DAX

daily chart

this thing not even trades below the 200 day


Chart öffnen


Chart öffnen


weekly chart

still 1000 points above solid uptrend


Chart öffnen

UK/Europe long term charts look scary to me:

I was flat after Thursday, by the Grace of God. Most put holders were slammed Friday by the Fed announcement before the open, which turned a lot of Thursday close put winners into Friday opening print (which determines settlement value on SPX and some other index options) put losers. The futures had to rocket before the open for the net short funds to hedge these positions prior to the cash open, IMO.

Not that the market wouldn't have blasted off, anyway. It was time for a bounce off of major resistance. The 8/15 fund exit deadline had passed. But I think those that make a lot of noise about Friday's move are mistaken. The reflex rate cut Bool play will not work nearly as well this time. Hedge funds remain beggng for cash and newly risk-averse. The carry trade will continue to unwind. A pull back now, when the Fed has just fired its best shot, will signal the end of the cyclical bool market.

Despite all the fireworks in Asia last night, it looks like a flat opening to me. I think we finish down for the day. BAC is only marginally up; should be up with all this boolish Asian contagion. HK up 1200 ponits?

[attachmentid=87572]

Good Morning!

Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening!

You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well.

Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply.

If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page.

If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread.

Many tanks for joining us!

Doc


Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information.

Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days!

Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool!

I spose they could cut interest rates for consumers and there's quite a bit of chat to that effect on the net. Some are saying there's a good chance of a .25% cut before the end of the year but they also admit that it won't make an iota of difference to the economic situation.

Peek, I think that Tokyo closing down 5.5% would impair this blasting off, at least the open print would be way below the faux cut shenanigans. Maybe there was a naked put writer headed for the slaughter house creating another big insolvency problem at Market Making/Clearing - maybe that would be a "pool calamity". Evidently this is all speculation.

That article I posted yesterday on WSE public side has generated a firestorm of traffic and comment around the message board world.

I had posted most of it on M2M in pieces over the weekend, but here it is in its entirety.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=1550

Except that the Fed didn't fire anything on Friday except a bunch of meaningless words. It was far from their best shot. They didn't cut rates, and they didn't flood the system with liquidity. That would be their "best shot." My theory is that they are saving that for when the biggest of the big banks are in real trouble. What they fired on Friday wasn't even a cap pistol. As usual, the market made a mountain out of a molehill, and whether in a day or two, or a week or two, there will be a price to be paid for that.

*DJ ECB To Gradually Reduce Surplus Reserve Liquidity


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

DJ Fed Accepts $3.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $3.5 Bln
Total submitted: $49.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.3 Bln
Total submitted: $19.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.24%
Weighted Average: 5.24%
High-rate submitted: 5.24%
Low-rate submitted: 4.4%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $200 Mln
Total submitted: $10.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.33%
Weighted Average: 4.33%
High-rate submitted: 4.33%
Low-rate submitted: 3.4%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2 Bln
Total submitted: $19.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 5.3%
Weighted Average: 5.3%
High-rate submitted: 5.3%
Low-rate submitted: 5.15%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

qqqq 3 day cycle indicators on sell side. 5 day are on the cusp. price is sitting on the 3 day cycle MA at 46.40.

HGX giving up 169.

qqqq hit its 3 and 5 day cycle projection of 47 early Friday and has been backing and filling since. spx fell way short of 3 day cycle projection of 1461. If they can't clear minor resistance at 1450, game over.

I am buying puts on Nikkme. Nikkme should be the biggest loser in global debt deleveraging.

[attachmentid=87573]

[attachmentid=87574]

good time for doubt to creep in ... good time probably for me to get long some stocks. ugh I will just hold my nose. I still have those QQQQ calls.

I'm sorry, oxymoron foul. 2 points + free throw.

So what entity has been aggressively selling SPU futures Friday afternoon and this morning and why?

Seeing fairly unusual supply above the market for the morning considering everything is rosy.

DJ ECB Calls For Bids In Main Refinancing Tender


FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank Monday called for bids in
its weekly main refinancing operation, and informed markets that the allotment
will be above estimated liquidity needs.

"The allotment amount in this main refinancing operation will exceed the
published benchmark of EUR227 billion by an amount which is consistent" with
the gradual normalization of money market conditions, the ECB said.

But the amount will likely offer less surplus liquidity than last week's
tender, the ECB said.

"Consistently with the normalization of conditions on the shortest term of
the money market, the ECB intends to gradually reduce the large reserve
surplus which has accumulated in the first weeks of this reserve maintenance
period," the ECB added.

Last week, the ECB boosted liquidity in its regular seven-day refinancing
operation with EUR310 billion, representing a EUR17.5 billion add over the
previous week's allotment of EUR292.5 billion. The EUR310 billion was also
well above the ECB's benchmark allotment of EUR236.5 billion. Last week's
EUR310 billion falls due prior to the money market open Wednesday.

Earlier Monday, the Bank of Japan added Y1.0 trillion to the short-term
money market via its regular tender, on the back of a Y1.2 trillion injection
Friday. Friday, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its discount rate in a move that
took markets by surprise.

ECB money market interest rates edged slightly higher Monday but remain
within normal ranges. Seven-day money rates are between 4.07% and 4.12%, just
above overnight rates of 3.99%-4.07%. Three-month funds are trading between
4.58% and 4.68%, unchanged from the morning session.

Prior to the seven-day refinancing tender last week, the ECB made clear that
its allocation was in keeping with a continued normalization of money market
conditions.

"The allotment amount will be consistent with this aim and will not be bound
by the published benchmark allotment amount," the ECB said Aug. 14.

The reverse transactions, conducted by means of a variable-rate tender using
the multiple rate, or U.S. method, of allotment, will have a maturity of seven
days.

The ECB has set a minimum bid rate of 4.00% for the operation.

The benchmark allotment, based on liquidity forecasts, is EUR227 billion,
the ECB said Monday.

Financial institutions are now invited to place bids with the ECB through
national central banks. Bids are due at 0730 GMT Tuesday. The ECB will then
compile the bids and announce the allotment results around 0915 GMT.


ECB Web site: http://www.ecb.int

The usual suspects:

I knew that it was not one of the blessed 21 since they have received their marching orders for the day.

I did not know that the two stoolies had such deep pockets.

*DJ Hotelier Leona Helmsley Dies - Publicist


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

I think that the fed+21 are having to buy far more SPU futures that they have planned for the Monday morning jack up. They are probably not very happy. Normally by this time the ask volumes dries up and start to be pulled when there is any buying.

Bush to tighten ties with Mexico, Canada

Amero coming to a town near you

Harper's a dufus.

HUI 3 day cycle projection 319-320

Rather than saying tighten ties, shouldn't they say erase the US?

And when are Mexican troops going to go to Iraq on their troop rotation?

Here's Business Week on quant funds:

"Nearly every major investment house and bank in the U.S. and abroad has a group of highly-paid rocket scientists in its proprietary trading department trying to beat the market with complex, computer-aided trading strategies..."

"August may go down as a watershed in the history of high-tech investing. That's because the losses suffered weren't just financial: The reputation of quantitative investing itself has been dealth long-term damage..."

Sounds about right...until you realize that this article was published in August 1998, not August 2007.

Who said they are going to IRAQ.....They are coming here!!!!!!

Resources from Canada and cheap labor from Mexico.

Sounds easy but when 80% of your trade is with the neighbor to the south it would take an awful long time to unwind the relationship. If the US goes down I don't see how Canada can avoid following the same path.

Are we getting close to candle lighting time?

DoucheBank comes to discount window

Foxy may have been right about the emergency Euro funds staying in Germany last week...

Doc, what do you think about this quote:

Everybody and their dog is waiting for the market to rally like a rocket to new ATH.

Looks like both the girlybullz and the girlybearz believe that we will continue to rally. The girliebullz think we have bottomed, though they allow for a re-test. The girlybearz think it's a dead-catter.

Funnee how knowbuddy, not even the girlybearz, think we just turn south and make new lows right away.

That couldn't possibly happen, could it?

Statement Regarding System Open Market Account Activity

On Thursday, August 23, 2007, the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (“SOMA”) will redeem $5 billion of Treasury bill holdings. This action is designed to give the Federal Reserve Open Market Trading Desk (the “Desk”) greater flexibility in the day-to-day management of reserve levels to offset factors that may add reserves to the banking system, such as additional discount window borrowings.

To achieve the $5 billion redemption, SOMA will purchase $7,126,019,000 of the 2/21/08 26-week Treasury bill (912795C82), $5,239,824,000 of the 11/23/07 13-week Treasury bill (912795B34), and will not participate in the 9/20/07 4-week Treasury bill (912795A27) auction. As with all SOMA purchases in the Treasury auctions, the amounts purchased are “add-ons” to the amounts publicly announced and issued by Treasury.

The Desk will continue to evaluate the need for the use of other tools to add flexibility to its open market operations. These may include further Treasury bill redemptions, reverse repurchase agreements, and Treasury bill sales.

Looked at the results this weekend of the hedge funds used by a NFP where I'm on the finance committee. Was happy to see they have made money off the sub prime mess. Not everybody is hurting.

is the 12+ billion a permanent add?

added to urz last week. no way uranium is going to zero,

Fed says it will drain $5 billion in permanent reserves this week.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/operatin...icy_082007.html

Somebody is still providing supply above the market in SPU futures. I would have thought that their terminal would have been disconnected by now.

You are misreading that. It's a $5 billion drain. "On Thursday, August 23, 2007, the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (“SOMA”) will redeem $5 billion of Treasury bill holdings. "

Extraordinary for them to telegraph that to the market. First, it's highly unusual for them to not roll over all of their holdings. It happened last week for about a billion, and I have only seen it once or twice before. But I have never seen them telegraph that they were taking this step. I'll have more to say along with the charts in the "Give us this day our daily Fed", in the WSE Pro later this afternoon.

5 day cycle indicators are really right on the brink here. A decent downtick over the next half hour or so should trigger sell signals.

Doc ... with all of this draining and adding, is there a longterm chart to represent all of the action. Would this provide edge in trading. I am just wondering if this data can provide an edge and if the system has been back tested ? From what has been said the FED has been tight. But the markets have still gone up. Therefore I think maybe I agree with you and others that the FED can't stop a rising market nor a falling one. SO what is the point of watching the Repo market?